Blair's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/6068/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/179774-introducing-the-27-inch-ilemon?source=feed#comment-821527 821527
1. Are you running 10.6.2? I don't have a Cannon, but I recall that the download description had something about Cannon cameras. So, if you are not running 10.6.2, it may be a cause of your problem. To access it, simply drag down to software update under the apple icon on the top left of your menu bar and let the system determine whether you updated your software..

2. I have a Nikon D80. After updating to Snow Leopard, my download off the the Nikon did not work -- the Nikon download software (Picture Project) kept blowing up.

Turns out, the Nikon software was at fault. After downloading the latest new software from Nikon, no problems. ***Nikon Problem*** ***Nikon Problem***

So, what Alessandro should do is less whining and more work in resolving his own problem.

Regarding another poster's comment about Safari blowing up, I wonder whether you are trying to download from bad web sites?

But, this seekingalpha site is not supposed to be a whine about software and/or hardware, regardless of its source. Keep focussed on its investment/economy issues.]]> Fri, 25 Dec 2009 20:25:30 -0500
1. Are you running 10.6.2? I don't have a Cannon, but I recall that the download description had something about Cannon cameras. So, if you are not running 10.6.2, it may be a cause of your problem. To access it, simply drag down to software update under the apple icon on the top left of your menu bar and let the system determine whether you updated your software..

2. I have a Nikon D80. After updating to Snow Leopard, my download off the the Nikon did not work -- the Nikon download software (Picture Project) kept blowing up.

Turns out, the Nikon software was at fault. After downloading the latest new software from Nikon, no problems. ***Nikon Problem*** ***Nikon Problem***

So, what Alessandro should do is less whining and more work in resolving his own problem.

Regarding another poster's comment about Safari blowing up, I wonder whether you are trying to download from bad web sites?

But, this seekingalpha site is not supposed to be a whine about software and/or hardware, regardless of its source. Keep focussed on its investment/economy issues.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177958-the-unlocked-phone-movement-gets-a-big-boost?source=feed#comment-806055 806055
Google is apparently unaware that one should not compete with your customers.

I will be interesting to see whether my opinion is correct. Perhaps in 6 months or so you will see phone manufacturers announcing they are going to Microsoft's mobile system.]]> Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:04:58 -0500
Google is apparently unaware that one should not compete with your customers.

I will be interesting to see whether my opinion is correct. Perhaps in 6 months or so you will see phone manufacturers announcing they are going to Microsoft's mobile system.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177748-dr-doom-bearish-on-gold?source=feed#comment-806041 806041
Given the people in Washington, you know that they are unable to run our economy, even though they think that they can.

So, you hold gold as an asset hold -- long term and you do not!! trade it.

Watching a Germany investment broadcast last week (after the sell-off), there was one analyst saying that he expected gold to hit $2,500. It is always interesting to get an insight from someone out side of the US.

I don't know where gold is going -- no one does, so don't try to rationalize inflation/deflation or whatever in the future -- but I am repeating myself.]]> Tue, 15 Dec 2009 02:29:53 -0500
Given the people in Washington, you know that they are unable to run our economy, even though they think that they can.

So, you hold gold as an asset hold -- long term and you do not!! trade it.

Watching a Germany investment broadcast last week (after the sell-off), there was one analyst saying that he expected gold to hit $2,500. It is always interesting to get an insight from someone out side of the US.

I don't know where gold is going -- no one does, so don't try to rationalize inflation/deflation or whatever in the future -- but I am repeating myself.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177724-jamie-hyndman-of-mawer-investment-management-buy-and-hold-is-not-dead?source=feed#comment-806037 806037
However, it appears that we will have a nice cold winter*, even though forecasters are saying a warm winter. Perhaps these forecasters are hidden AGW supporters and hoping that the global warming is true?

*Seattle had two days of record low temperatures last week, for example.]]> Tue, 15 Dec 2009 02:20:19 -0500
However, it appears that we will have a nice cold winter*, even though forecasters are saying a warm winter. Perhaps these forecasters are hidden AGW supporters and hoping that the global warming is true?

*Seattle had two days of record low temperatures last week, for example.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177915-dollar-rally-follow-the-contrarians?source=feed#comment-806032 806032 Tue, 15 Dec 2009 02:05:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175519-the-next-crisis-spiraling-inflation-part-2?source=feed#comment-780738 780738
Some worry about inflation, some worry about deflation. One will know with hindsight which worry point will be the most significant.

All one has to do is to watch what is going on, world-wide, to be aware that all of the powers have gone to the same school. From my perspective what one sees right now is a world-wide collapse of fiat money system. One can rant and rave about the root causes of the problem, of which I can discuss, but it is not relevant.

The baseline where I come from is to hold precious metals and precious metal mining securities. Don't trade them because you may find that come a situation that you may not be able to get back into them, i.e., the price has run-up too much in terms of fiat money. Don't try to do 'top price of the gold market' either.

When to get out? Without question, not now. One bench mark is to see fine gold chains and stores with sensitive scales to cut off an appropriate length to purchase an item. (Hint -- look for companies that will sell such scales in the future and mints that will take up the gold scraps to make new chains.) Even then, you may find that long term, 100s of years?? where gold will be the principal medium of exchange.]]> Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:11:13 -0500
Some worry about inflation, some worry about deflation. One will know with hindsight which worry point will be the most significant.

All one has to do is to watch what is going on, world-wide, to be aware that all of the powers have gone to the same school. From my perspective what one sees right now is a world-wide collapse of fiat money system. One can rant and rave about the root causes of the problem, of which I can discuss, but it is not relevant.

The baseline where I come from is to hold precious metals and precious metal mining securities. Don't trade them because you may find that come a situation that you may not be able to get back into them, i.e., the price has run-up too much in terms of fiat money. Don't try to do 'top price of the gold market' either.

When to get out? Without question, not now. One bench mark is to see fine gold chains and stores with sensitive scales to cut off an appropriate length to purchase an item. (Hint -- look for companies that will sell such scales in the future and mints that will take up the gold scraps to make new chains.) Even then, you may find that long term, 100s of years?? where gold will be the principal medium of exchange.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175437-case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values?source=feed#comment-778918 778918 So, the question is, ignoring the 10 year trendline in the chart, where are the home prices going to based on a strict chart analysis?

To this, let us assume the classic large move 'rule' is valid. To that, one should note that the retrenchment, so far, is 50% of the up move. peak - base = 220 - 80 = 140. 140/2 = 70, 220 - 70 = 150. The 150 number is where the slight upturn occurred.

Having pointed this number out, it is also worth while to state that trendlines are made to be broken. So, it could be that the 10 year line segment has its validity in projecting a 'next stop number.']]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 20:15:19 -0500 So, the question is, ignoring the 10 year trendline in the chart, where are the home prices going to based on a strict chart analysis?

To this, let us assume the classic large move 'rule' is valid. To that, one should note that the retrenchment, so far, is 50% of the up move. peak - base = 220 - 80 = 140. 140/2 = 70, 220 - 70 = 150. The 150 number is where the slight upturn occurred.

Having pointed this number out, it is also worth while to state that trendlines are made to be broken. So, it could be that the 10 year line segment has its validity in projecting a 'next stop number.']]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173375-can-gold-supplant-commodities-in-your-portfolio?source=feed#comment-761556 761556
I don't try to decipher whether we are going to had inflation or deflation. What I do know is that I have no trust in what ever the western governments will do to get our economy going again.

Consequently, my opinion is to buy and hold gold over the long term. I think that the time to get out of gold will be fairly obvious when everyone is going out and buying gold. Just like the 2002, 2007 and 1929 tops.]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 02:18:47 -0500
I don't try to decipher whether we are going to had inflation or deflation. What I do know is that I have no trust in what ever the western governments will do to get our economy going again.

Consequently, my opinion is to buy and hold gold over the long term. I think that the time to get out of gold will be fairly obvious when everyone is going out and buying gold. Just like the 2002, 2007 and 1929 tops.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172107-don-t-believe-long-term-oil-forecasts?source=feed#comment-754051 754051
However, the shielding required to make the reactor safe is hundreds of times bigger and heavier. I.E. small nuclear reactors are just not safe.

The basic issue regarding oil is that it is a high density energy material. No doubt we can reduce consumption per unit, however, there will be more units to consume the energy. Consequently, the issue is simple - overall consumption will increase, with all of intended (and unintended) consequences.]]> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:59:34 -0500
However, the shielding required to make the reactor safe is hundreds of times bigger and heavier. I.E. small nuclear reactors are just not safe.

The basic issue regarding oil is that it is a high density energy material. No doubt we can reduce consumption per unit, however, there will be more units to consume the energy. Consequently, the issue is simple - overall consumption will increase, with all of intended (and unintended) consequences.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168497-nouriel-roubini-one-on-one-more-doom-and-gloom?source=feed#comment-728469 728469
I have gold investments. Why do I have gold investments? Answer is quite simple. I don't know what the future brings -- deflation or inflation? Anyone who says that they know is deluding both themselves and anyone who listens to them.

I do know that I don't have any faith in the central banks and/or legislative bodies to do rational actions to control the turmoil. I do have faith in gold simply because it has limited supply. I don't know where it will go in the short term, but in the long term I am convinced that its price will be significantly higher. There will be a time to reduce gold holdings, however, it is not now.


Now, let us talk about the price of oil. Dr. Roubini says that $30 is a good price. I disagree. There is no doubt that overall consumption can be controlled by different methods. But, one thing that is not stated is whether the so called baseline has oil *underpriced* over the longterm. I am of the opinion that energy resources have been underpriced for all too long. Similar situation to have clean water. We can have clean water, at the expense of cleaning up 'dirty' water. Just think about the cost of drilling for oil 10,000 feet below the ocean surface.

Thus for the energy issue, I see energy as a long term buy and hold investment. You don't trade the stuff. The value of the energy resources will mitigate the impact of any kind of financial instabilities. In a modern society, you will always need source of high density energy. A bunch of wind mills and/or bio fuels will never provide it in sufficient amounts. As far as I can see, nuclear power is the only long term energy resource that will meet the requirements.]]> Sat, 24 Oct 2009 13:38:28 -0400
I have gold investments. Why do I have gold investments? Answer is quite simple. I don't know what the future brings -- deflation or inflation? Anyone who says that they know is deluding both themselves and anyone who listens to them.

I do know that I don't have any faith in the central banks and/or legislative bodies to do rational actions to control the turmoil. I do have faith in gold simply because it has limited supply. I don't know where it will go in the short term, but in the long term I am convinced that its price will be significantly higher. There will be a time to reduce gold holdings, however, it is not now.


Now, let us talk about the price of oil. Dr. Roubini says that $30 is a good price. I disagree. There is no doubt that overall consumption can be controlled by different methods. But, one thing that is not stated is whether the so called baseline has oil *underpriced* over the longterm. I am of the opinion that energy resources have been underpriced for all too long. Similar situation to have clean water. We can have clean water, at the expense of cleaning up 'dirty' water. Just think about the cost of drilling for oil 10,000 feet below the ocean surface.

Thus for the energy issue, I see energy as a long term buy and hold investment. You don't trade the stuff. The value of the energy resources will mitigate the impact of any kind of financial instabilities. In a modern society, you will always need source of high density energy. A bunch of wind mills and/or bio fuels will never provide it in sufficient amounts. As far as I can see, nuclear power is the only long term energy resource that will meet the requirements.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167565-the-secret-paulson-goldman-meeting?source=feed#comment-724680 724680
I can hardly wait until Sarah Palin gets her campaign financing!]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 01:21:59 -0400
I can hardly wait until Sarah Palin gets her campaign financing!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167348-three-asset-classes-that-can-actually-outpace-coming-inflationary-price-increases?source=feed#comment-722301 722301
With a 10% unemployment rate, what that statistic implies is that all of the gainfully employed got a 10% pay raise. Now, if you want to include all of the government handouts, then I can partially understand the statistic, but not to the extent that personal incoming being up.

Don't believe everything the government tells (or doesn't) tell you.]]> Tue, 20 Oct 2009 13:06:24 -0400
With a 10% unemployment rate, what that statistic implies is that all of the gainfully employed got a 10% pay raise. Now, if you want to include all of the government handouts, then I can partially understand the statistic, but not to the extent that personal incoming being up.

Don't believe everything the government tells (or doesn't) tell you.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166979-bond-market-expects-inflation-to-be-only-1-75?source=feed#comment-718769 718769
From my perspective, I am investing in PM because what is going on from a monetary consideration doesn't make any rational sense.]]> Sat, 17 Oct 2009 16:35:14 -0400
From my perspective, I am investing in PM because what is going on from a monetary consideration doesn't make any rational sense.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160128-avoiding-the-cloud-computing-commoditization-death-spiral?source=feed#comment-665812 665812
What is Cloud computing?

Thanks]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 03:08:55 -0400
What is Cloud computing?

Thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157815-17-reasons-for-crude-to-fall-near-term?source=feed#comment-654147 654147
"Technically crude looks like it is topping out. It appears that it is more likely to move downward from here in the near term. Of course, it could also break through overhead resistance."

So, if crude goes up , say $50, then White can say, 'I told you there is a possibility that crude 'could go up.']]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 02:10:23 -0400
"Technically crude looks like it is topping out. It appears that it is more likely to move downward from here in the near term. Of course, it could also break through overhead resistance."

So, if crude goes up , say $50, then White can say, 'I told you there is a possibility that crude 'could go up.']]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153918-will-consumers-ever-revert-to-pre-recession-spending-levels?source=feed#comment-622872 622872
Yes, it will go back up again, but not to the level see in the past few years. It will happen when the second generation comes with the mindset that their parents, grandparents, etc don't realize there are new times, and the cycle starts over again.]]> Mon, 10 Aug 2009 03:18:26 -0400
Yes, it will go back up again, but not to the level see in the past few years. It will happen when the second generation comes with the mindset that their parents, grandparents, etc don't realize there are new times, and the cycle starts over again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153818-timing-a-strategy-using-mean-reversion-a-critique?source=feed#comment-622870 622870
Perhaps what one should do is to use the opening price for the next morning as the input value, and close the position at the close for the day -- then see what kind of performance one gets]]> Mon, 10 Aug 2009 03:11:33 -0400
Perhaps what one should do is to use the opening price for the next morning as the input value, and close the position at the close for the day -- then see what kind of performance one gets]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143594-naked-short-selling-is-a-phoney-problem?source=feed#comment-551428 551428
In other words, selling something that you don't own. In the old days, they would hang the thief from the nearest tree. Perhaps they should go back to the old days. If nothing else, make it a felony with a one year minimum sentence.

There is nothing wrong with legitimate short selling, where the short seller borrows stock to short. Indeed, it helps market liquidity.

Further, as a statement to Northstar 10000, the last thing that I am is an Obama supporter.

To close, there is one thing that brings joy to my heart is when I read another hedge fund goes under. In German they call it schadenfreude.]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:59:05 -0400
In other words, selling something that you don't own. In the old days, they would hang the thief from the nearest tree. Perhaps they should go back to the old days. If nothing else, make it a felony with a one year minimum sentence.

There is nothing wrong with legitimate short selling, where the short seller borrows stock to short. Indeed, it helps market liquidity.

Further, as a statement to Northstar 10000, the last thing that I am is an Obama supporter.

To close, there is one thing that brings joy to my heart is when I read another hedge fund goes under. In German they call it schadenfreude.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133180-one-trillion-dollar-commercial-real-estate-time-bomb-now-ticking?source=feed#comment-479659 479659
My emotional reaction to this whole business is that the matter is so unbelievable it has to be believable.

I know that many have congratulated you on your excellent articles. But, let my add my name to the list.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 15:55:50 -0400
My emotional reaction to this whole business is that the matter is so unbelievable it has to be believable.

I know that many have congratulated you on your excellent articles. But, let my add my name to the list.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128192-is-this-finally-the-bottom-part-ii?source=feed#comment-443212 443212
The 2007 downside count still stands at 4,000. This recent rally satisfied the upside rally count to Thursday's close. In addition, the steep down trend still has not been broken.

So, if you are a technician, rather than a fly-by-seat investor, the analysis shows that this market still has a way to go on the downside.]]> Sat, 28 Mar 2009 02:59:56 -0400
The 2007 downside count still stands at 4,000. This recent rally satisfied the upside rally count to Thursday's close. In addition, the steep down trend still has not been broken.

So, if you are a technician, rather than a fly-by-seat investor, the analysis shows that this market still has a way to go on the downside.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127773-why-i-believe-paul-krugman-is-wrong?source=feed#comment-441905 441905 Fri, 27 Mar 2009 02:45:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127674-portfolio-turnover-and-transaction-costs-negatively-affecting-your-401-k?source=feed#comment-441876 441876
For those that did not follow the study date regarding the dropping of the up tick rule, that study date is roughly the same.

The point to be made is that these analyses were made during a relatively calm time in the market.

The big question is how well the investments would have done in the 2008-09 50% drop? I think not too well. Buy and hold is well and fine during certain market times, but not all of the time -- as all too many investors have found out, to their dismay.]]> Fri, 27 Mar 2009 01:41:00 -0400
For those that did not follow the study date regarding the dropping of the up tick rule, that study date is roughly the same.

The point to be made is that these analyses were made during a relatively calm time in the market.

The big question is how well the investments would have done in the 2008-09 50% drop? I think not too well. Buy and hold is well and fine during certain market times, but not all of the time -- as all too many investors have found out, to their dismay.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119342-the-final-market-bubble?source=feed#comment-383432 383432

On Feb 10 11:03 PM derryl wrote:

> Hyperinflation can be stunted by a value added tax (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> on everything. A 100% VAT would instantly double the price of everything
> so 1/2 of any money that is spent (rampant spending contributes to
> or causes price inflation, as our recent bubbles experience shows)
> would flow to Treasury, and Treasury could remove that money from
> the economy by using it to buy back its bonds from the Fed. Or Treasury
> could just lock it in a vault.
>
> There is no limit how high the VAT could be set. If it was 500%
> then a $1000 item would cost $6000 and pretty soon even a hyperinflationary
> spending mood would be cooled down because the government would suck
> so much money out of the economy every time anybody spent some money.
>
>
> In hyperinflation the velocity of money reaches warp speed as everyone
> tries to trade their cash for something they think will hold its
> value. So we bid up the prices of everything to get rid of all our
> money before it is worth less.
>
> But if Treasury takes a large slice of that money out of every transaction
> then after purchase #1 for $1000 (with a 100% VAT) the seller only
> has $500 to get rid of, and after purchase #2 for $500 the seller
> only has $250, etc. Pretty soon there is no longer 'too much money'
> in the system. It's a fast way to suck money out of a system where
> too much money is chasing too few goods.
>
> There ARE solutions to these monetary problems. We don't have to
> just sit back and allow arithmetic problems involving money to cause
> the world to end. The solutions would be politically difficult (a
> 500% VAT!!! Raise the guillotines!). Maybe Paul Volcker will be
> the guy who kills hyperinflation.

There is only one problem with this concept: There are such things as black markets. With such a large spread introduced by the VAT, there will be enough 'fat' to enable profitable VAT avoidance transactions. Mankind has always been inventive to avoid taxes and there is no reason to think this situation will be an exception.]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 03:30:35 -0500

On Feb 10 11:03 PM derryl wrote:

> Hyperinflation can be stunted by a value added tax (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> on everything. A 100% VAT would instantly double the price of everything
> so 1/2 of any money that is spent (rampant spending contributes to
> or causes price inflation, as our recent bubbles experience shows)
> would flow to Treasury, and Treasury could remove that money from
> the economy by using it to buy back its bonds from the Fed. Or Treasury
> could just lock it in a vault.
>
> There is no limit how high the VAT could be set. If it was 500%
> then a $1000 item would cost $6000 and pretty soon even a hyperinflationary
> spending mood would be cooled down because the government would suck
> so much money out of the economy every time anybody spent some money.
>
>
> In hyperinflation the velocity of money reaches warp speed as everyone
> tries to trade their cash for something they think will hold its
> value. So we bid up the prices of everything to get rid of all our
> money before it is worth less.
>
> But if Treasury takes a large slice of that money out of every transaction
> then after purchase #1 for $1000 (with a 100% VAT) the seller only
> has $500 to get rid of, and after purchase #2 for $500 the seller
> only has $250, etc. Pretty soon there is no longer 'too much money'
> in the system. It's a fast way to suck money out of a system where
> too much money is chasing too few goods.
>
> There ARE solutions to these monetary problems. We don't have to
> just sit back and allow arithmetic problems involving money to cause
> the world to end. The solutions would be politically difficult (a
> 500% VAT!!! Raise the guillotines!). Maybe Paul Volcker will be
> the guy who kills hyperinflation.

There is only one problem with this concept: There are such things as black markets. With such a large spread introduced by the VAT, there will be enough 'fat' to enable profitable VAT avoidance transactions. Mankind has always been inventive to avoid taxes and there is no reason to think this situation will be an exception.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112721-what-will-this-year-s-january-effect-be?source=feed#comment-343155 343155
Time will tell whether my assessment that this year it will not work. Too many normal investors are in bad financial shape and they are afraid of their own shadows. There are a number of clues that support my argument -- gas consumption has not picked up even though the price has dropped over 50%. Further, look at the upper scale retail sales -- they are pathetic. There aren't any ordinary investors in the market to support any kind of significant bull move.

My put is to short the market when Obama takes office -- then look to see the market to go down roughly 50% from that level, specifically to the (S&P 500) 400 area. I think the pain will be short and intense. ]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 04:10:09 -0500
Time will tell whether my assessment that this year it will not work. Too many normal investors are in bad financial shape and they are afraid of their own shadows. There are a number of clues that support my argument -- gas consumption has not picked up even though the price has dropped over 50%. Further, look at the upper scale retail sales -- they are pathetic. There aren't any ordinary investors in the market to support any kind of significant bull move.

My put is to short the market when Obama takes office -- then look to see the market to go down roughly 50% from that level, specifically to the (S&P 500) 400 area. I think the pain will be short and intense. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109666-lower-markets-are-still-to-come?source=feed#comment-328456 328456
The principal consideration is that no-one in the government can turn this economy around in a short time. What is going on is will take a considerable amount of time and nothing can be done to reduce this time requirement.

The most important point to be made, which may help with what one should do regarding investments, is the 2 generation change in mindset.

What you are seeing is a reversal of a mindset that started in the 1960s, specifically, with regard to responsibilities. That all of the great things in life are free. Houses, SUVs, great vacations, etc. One will never have to pay for them - housing prices will go up forever and you can always get another equity loan, for example.

From a generational consideration, the baby boomers had children, and these children accepted (why not?) what their parents had told them. So that brings us up to the 1980s. Now those second generation children are having children, who were told that they too could have the great life style. Etc.

So, what is going one is a revision to the real economic world.

To beat the horse real dead, what needs to be cleaned up are two (if not more marginally) generations of a mindset.

I think that this picture now gives an investment forecast. For the indefinite future, the name of the game will be more conservative investments, if for no other reason there isn't any easy money around.

So, keep your money in a capital preservation mode to take advantage of the upswing when it occurs.

]]> Sat, 13 Dec 2008 16:42:50 -0500
The principal consideration is that no-one in the government can turn this economy around in a short time. What is going on is will take a considerable amount of time and nothing can be done to reduce this time requirement.

The most important point to be made, which may help with what one should do regarding investments, is the 2 generation change in mindset.

What you are seeing is a reversal of a mindset that started in the 1960s, specifically, with regard to responsibilities. That all of the great things in life are free. Houses, SUVs, great vacations, etc. One will never have to pay for them - housing prices will go up forever and you can always get another equity loan, for example.

From a generational consideration, the baby boomers had children, and these children accepted (why not?) what their parents had told them. So that brings us up to the 1980s. Now those second generation children are having children, who were told that they too could have the great life style. Etc.

So, what is going one is a revision to the real economic world.

To beat the horse real dead, what needs to be cleaned up are two (if not more marginally) generations of a mindset.

I think that this picture now gives an investment forecast. For the indefinite future, the name of the game will be more conservative investments, if for no other reason there isn't any easy money around.

So, keep your money in a capital preservation mode to take advantage of the upswing when it occurs.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109856-barry-ritholtz-s-picks?source=feed#comment-328453 328453
The principal consideration is that no-one in the government can turn this economy around in a short time. What is going on is will take a considerable amount of time and nothing can be done to reduce this time requirement.

The most important point to be made, which may help with what one should do regarding investments, is the 2 generation change in mindset.

What you are seeing is a reversal of a mindset that started in the 1960s, specifically, with regard to responsibilities. That all of the great things in life are free. Houses, SUVs, great vacations, etc. One will never have to pay for them - housing prices will go up forever and you can always get another equity loan, for example.

From a generational consideration, the baby boomers had children, and these children accepted (why not?) what their parents had told them. So that brings us up to the 1980s. Now those second generation children are having children, who were told that they too could have the great life style. Etc.

So, what is going one is a revision to the real economic world.

To beat the horse real dead, what needs to be cleaned up are two (if not more marginally) generations of a mindset.

I think that this picture now gives an investment forecast. For the indefinite future, the name of the game will be more conservative investments, if for no other reason there isn't any easy money around.

So, keep your money in a capital preservation mode to take advantage of the upswing when it occurs.]]> Sat, 13 Dec 2008 16:24:16 -0500
The principal consideration is that no-one in the government can turn this economy around in a short time. What is going on is will take a considerable amount of time and nothing can be done to reduce this time requirement.

The most important point to be made, which may help with what one should do regarding investments, is the 2 generation change in mindset.

What you are seeing is a reversal of a mindset that started in the 1960s, specifically, with regard to responsibilities. That all of the great things in life are free. Houses, SUVs, great vacations, etc. One will never have to pay for them - housing prices will go up forever and you can always get another equity loan, for example.

From a generational consideration, the baby boomers had children, and these children accepted (why not?) what their parents had told them. So that brings us up to the 1980s. Now those second generation children are having children, who were told that they too could have the great life style. Etc.

So, what is going one is a revision to the real economic world.

To beat the horse real dead, what needs to be cleaned up are two (if not more marginally) generations of a mindset.

I think that this picture now gives an investment forecast. For the indefinite future, the name of the game will be more conservative investments, if for no other reason there isn't any easy money around.

So, keep your money in a capital preservation mode to take advantage of the upswing when it occurs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107723-as-a-discounting-mechanism-the-market-will-rebound-before-the-economy?source=feed#comment-317280 317280
I say that it isn't because what needs to be wrung out of the economy are the excesses of leveraged investments and spending that has occurred over the past 60 years.

This will *not* be the typical recession seen in the past decades. The Fed's actions and stimulus spending will do an excellent job of killing the real estate market for the indefinite future because savings will go to federal bonds and the like. What do you think of what has happened in Japan? Over 15 years of slow economy!

Most conservative investors, those that have escaped the bear market in both investments and real estate, are not going to put their money in higher risk investments. In the book, "Unexpected Returns" the author points out that we could be in a 15 year trading range market, starting in 2000.

Keep your gun powder dry!]]> Sat, 29 Nov 2008 20:41:35 -0500
I say that it isn't because what needs to be wrung out of the economy are the excesses of leveraged investments and spending that has occurred over the past 60 years.

This will *not* be the typical recession seen in the past decades. The Fed's actions and stimulus spending will do an excellent job of killing the real estate market for the indefinite future because savings will go to federal bonds and the like. What do you think of what has happened in Japan? Over 15 years of slow economy!

Most conservative investors, those that have escaped the bear market in both investments and real estate, are not going to put their money in higher risk investments. In the book, "Unexpected Returns" the author points out that we could be in a 15 year trading range market, starting in 2000.

Keep your gun powder dry!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107701-can-a-broken-new-york-times-be-fixed?source=feed#comment-317226 317226
I put the NYT and the Washington Post, and the LA Times in the same category -- I don't trust the reporting. The reporting does not lie, it lies by not reporting all of the facts as is applies to a given typically political article.

I don't care whether the reporting is done digitally or on paper, the trust is gone that the NYT is dispassionate in its reporting.

While I think of it, it also appears that the Wall Street Journal is going down the same road since it was taken over by Murdoch.

Long term, the NYT will end up being a local newspaper pandering to the northeast liberal. The California liberal market is already served by SF and LA liberal papers. One can draw their own conclusions as to the economic viability of the NYT.]]> Sat, 29 Nov 2008 16:37:11 -0500
I put the NYT and the Washington Post, and the LA Times in the same category -- I don't trust the reporting. The reporting does not lie, it lies by not reporting all of the facts as is applies to a given typically political article.

I don't care whether the reporting is done digitally or on paper, the trust is gone that the NYT is dispassionate in its reporting.

While I think of it, it also appears that the Wall Street Journal is going down the same road since it was taken over by Murdoch.

Long term, the NYT will end up being a local newspaper pandering to the northeast liberal. The California liberal market is already served by SF and LA liberal papers. One can draw their own conclusions as to the economic viability of the NYT.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99705-cnbc-s-gasparino-problem?source=feed#comment-282650 282650
If they want to call your attention to the screen, why don't they use a flushing toilet sound? Or, still better, just drop the sound. I switch to Bloomberg when it gets the best of me.

Also, the person that gets me is the ex-blond (what ever her name is). They should send her to finance school for 5 years -- perhaps by that time she will have learned something. Actually, I don't think she has the brains to be in her position, and nothing can ever help her. What is even worse, she is so simple she doesn't recognize her simplicity.]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2008 01:56:52 -0400
If they want to call your attention to the screen, why don't they use a flushing toilet sound? Or, still better, just drop the sound. I switch to Bloomberg when it gets the best of me.

Also, the person that gets me is the ex-blond (what ever her name is). They should send her to finance school for 5 years -- perhaps by that time she will have learned something. Actually, I don't think she has the brains to be in her position, and nothing can ever help her. What is even worse, she is so simple she doesn't recognize her simplicity.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99544-the-bottom-s-within-sight-barron-s?source=feed#comment-280866 280866
What you are seeing is a reversal of a mindset that started in the 1960s, specifically, with regard to responsibilities. That all of the great things in life are free. Houses, SUVs, great vacations, etc. One will never have to pay for them - housing prices will go up forever and you can always get another equity loan, for example.

From a generational consideration, the baby boomers had children, and these children accepted (why not?) what their parents had told them. So that brings us up to the 1980s. Now those second generation children are having children, who were told that they too could have the great life style. Etc.

So, what is going one is a revision to the real economic world.

To beat the horse real dead, what needs to be cleaned up are two (if not more marginally) generations of a mindset.

I think that this picture now gives an investment forecast. For the indefinite future, the name of the game will be more conservative investments, if for no other reason there isn't any easy money around.

To talk about myself, I am 76 years old, still an active (not trader) investor since 1963. I am down about 10%, but still have some open equity investments since year end.

The market and the economy will do well, but it will be a long haul -- and the tax burdens proposed by the Democrats will make things worse. The best thing long term are the tax proposals put forward by McCain -- not that the economy and market will pop up. All one has to do is to look at the European economies to understand what will happen if the Democrats run our country.

All of the young college people are ignorant of what is going on in Europe, where the unemployment rate for college graduates is on the order of 20%.

While I am ranting, regarding health insurance, etc. Canada, France and Germany are going to a more free market system because they are running out of money. Of course, promoters of the US getting into a government based medical plan have politics in mind, not what would be the best for the American public as a whole.]]> Sun, 12 Oct 2008 20:39:50 -0400
What you are seeing is a reversal of a mindset that started in the 1960s, specifically, with regard to responsibilities. That all of the great things in life are free. Houses, SUVs, great vacations, etc. One will never have to pay for them - housing prices will go up forever and you can always get another equity loan, for example.

From a generational consideration, the baby boomers had children, and these children accepted (why not?) what their parents had told them. So that brings us up to the 1980s. Now those second generation children are having children, who were told that they too could have the great life style. Etc.

So, what is going one is a revision to the real economic world.

To beat the horse real dead, what needs to be cleaned up are two (if not more marginally) generations of a mindset.

I think that this picture now gives an investment forecast. For the indefinite future, the name of the game will be more conservative investments, if for no other reason there isn't any easy money around.

To talk about myself, I am 76 years old, still an active (not trader) investor since 1963. I am down about 10%, but still have some open equity investments since year end.

The market and the economy will do well, but it will be a long haul -- and the tax burdens proposed by the Democrats will make things worse. The best thing long term are the tax proposals put forward by McCain -- not that the economy and market will pop up. All one has to do is to look at the European economies to understand what will happen if the Democrats run our country.

All of the young college people are ignorant of what is going on in Europe, where the unemployment rate for college graduates is on the order of 20%.

While I am ranting, regarding health insurance, etc. Canada, France and Germany are going to a more free market system because they are running out of money. Of course, promoters of the US getting into a government based medical plan have politics in mind, not what would be the best for the American public as a whole.]]>