Blair

The Secret Paulson-Goldman Meeting

The proposal that there be government supported campaigning is great!.

I can hardly wait until Sarah Palin gets her campaign financing!

How Much Are Goldman's Level 3 Assets Worth?

My put (pun intended) is that the market is going down to the 2002 bear market low.

I use point & figure charts to make price movement projections, and I think that I am pretty good at make these assessments (modest, aren't I :).

For the record, the Dow, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ all project to that level. Of course, this assessment may be wrong, but to invalidate this projection, one has to argue for a roughly 4500 point Dow up move.

The one thing regarding point and figure charts is that you lack a time scale as to when the forecast will occur.

My fundamental, seat-of-pants, assessment is that the next down move will start in the May - June time period. The rational for this time forecast is that most of the financing of business related loans will be up at that time, based on most financing is a 12 to 18 month workout. Many of the lenders are not comfortable with facing law suits if they do not honor their agreements. The number of new business loans, at higher interest rates, will not be enough to keep the economy going at its present pace.

This will show up as a significant increase in unemployment numbers at that time.

I am long 4 of the different short etfs, for example PSQ, (small position) - no stock shorts.