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ARH

ARH
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  • Analysis Of The Golden Ocean Group Sale And Lease-Back Deal With Ship Finance International [View article]
    Thank you for the feedback, Lambros. Your assumption seems reasonable, but by G&A do you imply the corporate overhead divided between among the fleet?

    Also, where would you peg the cash break-even day rate (assuming industry standard leverage) for an average Capesize in today's market?
    May 2, 2015. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis Of The Golden Ocean Group Sale And Lease-Back Deal With Ship Finance International [View article]
    Good insights, and very interesting approach using option pricing models.

    What assumptions are behind your OPEX estimate? What kind of funding terms and capital structure?
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VAALCO Energy: Don't Catch This Falling Knife [View article]
    Good article with some interesting points illuminating Vaalco's colorful past.

    However, I believe you might have some misconceptions pertaining to the political processes of petroleum states. Gabon has suffered from a structural decline since peaking at about 370kb/d sometime during the mid-1990s. The Bongo administration knows this, and has acknowledged the country's unilateral dependence on the financial and technical resources of international oil companies (i.e. petroleum sector is 45% of GDP). In times of depressed commodity prices and slowing investments (like now), fiscal terms needs to be improved in order to attract (back) the foreign capital.

    Nigeria's long-awaited Petroleum Industry Bill, which likely would have been passed had it not been for the oil price slump, is a prime example of the industry's current leverage over national interests.

    Generally, Gabon is perceived to have a fairly stable and lucrative fiscal tax regime, and I believe this is a perception they administration diligently seeks to maintain. In closing, I think your point on there being downside risks in fiscal terms may be proven to in fact be opposite.
    Mar 21, 2015. 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Midas Touch: Why Goldman's Commodities Trade Is A Big Gamble [View article]
    Very naive to believe that Dutch trading houses, hedgefunds or upstream companies (all alternative owners) would operate these commodity assets differently and supersede basic profit maximization principles.

    Please, the "investment banks are the devil" rhetoric is played out like PS1. Let them earn money.
    Mar 7, 2015. 07:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VAALCO Energy Announces Strong Results At Its Etame Marin Block In Gabon [View article]
    I do not think it's prudent to merely extrapolate Q3 per-barrel costs to the next quarter. Although the rig rate is locked in, completions and well services costs have come down significantly and one can justly assume that every operator out there is cutting into the overhead.

    Also, how did you arrive at $70 from $58 on all-in break-even?
    Feb 13, 2015. 05:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Harvest Natural Resources - Petroandina Files A Complaint For Breach Of Contract [View article]
    Very peculiar move from a legal standpoint, indeed.

    I wonder why Pluspetrol did not already push for a cancellation of the 1st tranche in the Delaware court? It is worth noting that the court order was not issued due to lack of notification or escrow account funds, but rather to inhibit harm to the company's business relations with Venezuela? My thought is, are they cutting a under-the-table deal with the Venezuela authorities now that HNR is completely cornered?

    What is the terms/covenants relating to Petroandina's bridge loan provided to HNR?
    Jan 29, 2015. 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Harvest Natural Resources: Under $3 Now, However, Still Too Risky [View article]
    Some comments and thoughts:

    Regarding Vitol's bid for the Dussafu stake, you claim the parties were "unable to reach a deal". However, from my understanding it was HNR that pulled out because they considered the sale of Petrodelta more likely/beneficial?

    Moreover, implying that a 30% decrease in the price of Brent is equal to an identical value reduction of the license is an overly simplistic analysis. You need to consider local market conditions (Gabon is still considered hot among IOCs), the forward curve for crude (inverted into backwardation and still @ $90+ 2yrs out), upside potential and prospects (outboard leads and imminent 3D seismic interpretation is key), as well as strategic value among relevant buyers (portfolio fit, reserve replacement, political factors, etc.).

    I also believe it is apparent that HNR would have a strong case against PDVSA/Venezuela in a legal arbitration situation, but agree that they are somewhat caught between a rock and a hard place given their inability to obey by potential cash infusion calls.

    On a sidenote, do you have a good grasp of the main culprit(s) behind the company's disproportionately high rate of cash-burn?
    Nov 25, 2014. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Seadrill Subsidiary To Raise $250 Million In Equity [View article]
    "(...) and is using two banks that presumably will be more "friendly" to the Company"

    Could you elaborate exactly what you mean by this statement?
    Sep 24, 2014. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making The Case For A Seadrill Ltd. Management Buyout [View article]
    Can you please elaborate on the business rationale behind combining a $15bn./8,000-people high-spec deepwater rig operator and an ailing dirty tanker owner with a market cap of $130 million?

    Somebody needs to do their homework better, lots of misinformation and speculation that is not grounded in reality. Please look into Frontline 2012 and how it has functioned as an asset-play (NB contract) investment vehicle with a clear divestiture exti-strategy.
    Sep 22, 2014. 04:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fredriksen's right-hand man to leave Seadrill's board [View news story]
    There appear to be an above-average amount of lopsided views and fanboyism surrounding SDRL at SA.

    Don't get me wrong, it's an undisputed world-class company founded by an absolute industrial genius. However, the stock price decline seem largely merited in light of the soft(ening) rig market, Russian sanctions and Trøim's resignation.

    Falling in love with a stock is a precarious thing.
    Sep 19, 2014. 05:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tanker rate slump signals retreat in U.S. oil imports; Frontline seen suffering [View news story]
    One can't help to wonder how the outlook for the VLCC segment is going to be? I mean, with the shortfall of US cargoes (assuming domestic production growth persists) a fair amount of ton-mile is leaving the market. Certainly there will continue to be a steady flow of Asia destined cargoes out of the AG, but hardly enough to justify the current fleet size?

    Additionally, I can't help to wonder what Fredriksen's (next) VLCC move will be? Thus far he hasn't touched a single super tanker since 2009, AFAIK. My best guess would be an aggressive M&A sweep buying out existing tonnage when prices are closer to steel scrap, as new orders would choke rates/vessel prices and suppress the hands down most distressed segment further. My bet is that widespread consolidation is more likely than an eco-niche newbuild buying spree and a two-tier market creation as has been the trend in other segments.

    It also strikes me that STNG appear to have outsmarted FRNT in the LPG/VLGC and product tanker segments, effectively side-sweeping the markets as a first-mover through occupying the best yard slots.

    Can't wait to see how all this plays out. Exciting times in tanker shipping.
    Aug 6, 2013. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    Whatchu talkin' bout, boy?

    I am a Norwegian and huge fan of Fredriksen (I used to own FRO, SDRL, GOGL, MHG, etc.) and his achievements. It was an "attack" on gullible US investors.
    Oct 18, 2012. 04:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Partners IPO [View article]
    This is a classic JF style trick to exploit gullible US investors and further capitalize Seadrill outside of traditional equity/bonds issues.
    Oct 17, 2012. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil May See Part Of Its Dry Gas Acreage Expire Undrilled [View article]
    That's kind of crazy to think about XOM's slow response to the market changes, especially considering standing and industrial weight. What was XTO's CEO story? They got a pretty impressive (expensive) price for that firm, I seem to recall?
    Aug 27, 2012. 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Exited Exxon Mobil, So Should You [View article]
    ExxonMobil indeed warrants a premium over peers. This is the world's largest international oil company - based on revenue, market cap, refining capacity, production output and resource reserves - that we are talking about. The true legacy of Standard Oil and Rockefeller. Duh.
    Apr 12, 2012. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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