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Intl Investment Services

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  • The Case For A Moderately Bullish Call On Hewlett-Packard [View article]
    HP stock price rose due to a Halo Effect that debt ratio has been improved since Meg's restructure plan. The hope was that Meg would repeat her EBay to turnaround HPQ. As the analysis pointed out, fundamentally HPQ is still weak. The Halo effect may wane as HPQ is a much bigger company than EBay. There are plenty of headwind, according to current management.
    Jul 6, 2013. 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Sharp Recent Drop In Baker Hughes Gas Rig Count Explained [View article]
    Richard,

    Combined your comments to Ruffdog, I think you over-complicated your analysis in terms of price. The simple fact is that if at $4, gas producers are shifting from gas to oil, like your data suggested (despite its validity), only indicates $4 price is not sustainable. Otherwise, like you said and I agree, gas producers will be profitable at $4 and love to keep the closed gas rigs open.

    You tried to use numbers to support the view that gas won't drop in the next few months. That is fine. However, the problem is that the argument actually inspired different readings. Other than that, your analysis is a good job.
    Apr 7, 2013. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Is Not Dead [View article]
    This analysis is bullish in price, neutral in fundamentals (I think it is neutral in terms of recovery process although the author may think differently). Turning around company size like that isn't easy. Think about CSCO. So the straight line stock price projection is a bit over-simplified. In fact, I believe the storm is coming, rather soon.
    Mar 17, 2013. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Like Intel And Other Stocks In The Semiconductor SOX Index [View article]
    ALTR has a problem that expense increased too fast. They created new groups where newly hired talking head managers don't know how to increase revenue but spend. This is a double-damage from these low level managers: faster expense increase and employee productivity reduction. ALTR had been conservative so the balance sheet was sound. Probably will come to a different story this time.
    Feb 2, 2013. 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Won't Go Above $20 [View article]
    Talk to Chanos about this to see how to sell and learn short-selling mentality. This is not a good place for shorts.
    Jan 21, 2013. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX +13.4%) resumes trading after a halt to reach as high as $84.50 before tripping up circuit breakers once again. All the excitement is tied to a 13D filed by Carl Icahn showing a 9.98% stake in Netflix and saying the company holds "significant strategic value due its dominant market position and global growth prospects". Now the question is if Icahn still sees shares as undervalued now that they have run up a hefty gain lickety-split. [View news story]
    Exactly my question: if price suddenly drops under $36 and his put can't be exercised, he doesn't have the 10% shares (he won't exercise the calls when price under $36). That means there will be a period of time the 10% is bogus. Of course, this is a big assumption. He does have about 1% direct ownership though.

    So the play is this: if current shareholders don't want him to be the largest one, then keep the price below $36 from now to Sept 4, 2014. But if price above $36, he can claim the largest shareholder anytime. Of course, many things can happen with this play.

    A tricky game for current big shareholders. It seems someone have been cornered.
    Nov 1, 2012. 09:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX +13.4%) resumes trading after a halt to reach as high as $84.50 before tripping up circuit breakers once again. All the excitement is tied to a 13D filed by Carl Icahn showing a 9.98% stake in Netflix and saying the company holds "significant strategic value due its dominant market position and global growth prospects". Now the question is if Icahn still sees shares as undervalued now that they have run up a hefty gain lickety-split. [View news story]
    This is a good tracking and an interesting siutation: I am curious how he can spend $168.9M on 5.5M shares (see Bloomberg). That means his average price is $30.5/sh. But if this is just the option premium and his exercise is $36/sh, that means he is paying $66/sh. Also since he is selling puts, the price could be lower. But can he claim he has acquire 10% share before he exercises the calls? I mean what if price drops below $36/sh on expiration date? Not sure about this rule.

    Thanks.
    Oct 31, 2012. 06:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Telefonica: 11% Dividend Stock Turned Into A Growth Story [View article]
    Off topic: can someone explain TEF's ADR schedule fee?
    Oct 19, 2012. 10:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Choppy Stock Ready To Move Higher [View article]
    Thank you and Abisoxfan for your opinions.
    Jul 7, 2012. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Caterpillar Now, 100% Margin Of Safety That Stock Will Double [View article]
    Everything has been said and considered in this post: past, current, and future. CAT is a good value buy in long term. But I insist entry point is below $70.
    Jul 7, 2012. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Choppy Stock Ready To Move Higher [View article]
    No offence or disrespect, just a question: given slowing down China and Europe, do you think CAT will penetrate the resistance/support level $80? I am a bit pessimistic and looking it below $70 as an entry point.
    Jul 7, 2012. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons To Stay Away From Hewlett-Packard [View article]
    If you pull out HPQ's stock performance in Mark's tenure, you can see $20 to $50 was the range. When he first joined, HPQ was around $20. After a few years ride, it was around $50 about the time he was forced out. Leo's tenure was too short to make judgement. The question is not about the price range, the key is if it can perform.
    Jul 6, 2012. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The rally in shares of Netflix (NFLX +2.9%) keeps motoring right along even against a weak tape. The buying frenzy was started by a Facebook post by CEO Reed Hastings on the company's tally of streaming hours by customers, but questions on whether or not Hastings skirted SEC Regulation FD with his bravado are starting to crop up.  [View news story]
    This CEO is such careless to leak pre-earning information. Even worse, the streaming number can't be verified. No accounting firm or SEC would look into that. So the only effect is provide speculative clue. Speculators have already messed with streaming viewer number with subscriber number. If the earning on 7/26 is good, they would be quietly accumulating chips. But instead, good news was leaked. Maybe they are really desperate to come to this resort.
    Jul 6, 2012. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Count Netflix Out Yet [View article]
    Even thought NFLX keeps infrastructure investing to improve their services and explore new markets, competition on internet video services has become beyond a mere video service. While many here pointed out AMZN, CMSCA, and CSTR the like, more real threat comes form YouTube, FB, Twitter, and iTV. When the trend on internet video is formed, no big boys want to be left behind. We see the tablet market as a recent example. That day shouldn't be too far out. So this is a high risk business that needs to be highly cautious.
    Jul 1, 2012. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Stocks Have Likely Entered A Bear Market [View article]
    Articles like these often have one point after charts and charts, numbers and numbers: the markets have to go down (or up), no other ways. Everything negative (or positive). It missed a fundamental point: the drop in fact is asking for FED's QE3, which is rejected by most of Fed officials so far expressed in public. So the point of the FED is out of bullet is questionable. Bears are asking for Fed's ammo by selling. This ultra strong support line is missed.
    Jun 3, 2012. 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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