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  • Methodology For Assessing Sustainability Of American Capital Agency's 18.2% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Lots of articles on the dividend, but nobody has provided any information on the hedges. You can't play this game of borrowing short term and buying long term instruments without hedging. The guy running AGNC was a top guy at Fannie Mae. Hard to believe he doesn't know how to play the game. It will be interesting to see what happens to the stock if the $1.25 dividend is paid in June.
    May 25, 2013. 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.'s Updated Dividend Sustainability Analysis (Through Q1 2013) [View article]
    Thanks for the data and research. You put a lot of time into this and it is appreciated. Knowledge is power and you can't predict the future but your article helps us make better decisions. You can't ask for more.

    mREITS are interest rate arbitrages and can be very complex especially with hedging. In this world you are essentially backing the management and I think AGNC has that level of management. Maybe future articles should focus on management capabilities.
    May 9, 2013. 02:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Not A Terrible Q1, But The Dividend Is Still Not Sustainable [View article]
    Reading these discussions is like sitting through an Economics class. And you know what they say about economists, "they know 100 ways to make love, they just don't know any women." There is no large cap stock trading at book and paying this dividend. These guys have the best background to run this interest rate arbitrage. No arbitrage lasts forever. Markets adjust. Pick your exit timing, but it won't be for quite a while.
    May 7, 2013. 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Not A Terrible Q1, But The Dividend Is Still Not Sustainable [View article]
    What is your point? It is a good buy now and a great buy at $25. I would be very happy with a 10-12% dividend. Over the last three years AGNC has always had a target price of $30+/-. With the bond market roll out, dividend seekers will push this through the roof. Show me another stock that trades at book with this kind of dividend. I believe mortgages rates rise before the 10 yr Treasury rate rises. Fed is re-writing old higher paying bonds at these low rates which keeps the deficit down. The game has legs.
    May 6, 2013. 05:52 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency (AGNC) and CYS Investments are downgraded to Hold at Nomura following AGNC's ugly Q1 (CYS also had a substantial decline in BV during Q1). Analyst Bill Carcache notes "mortgage market dynamics are increasingly volatile and unpredictable," with AGNC in double-trouble thanks to complacency about prepayment risk. AGNC +0.9%, CYS -0.7% premarket. [View news story]
    Notice that Seeking Alpha is becoming like Yahoo? Everybody with an opinion is an expert.
    May 6, 2013. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deal Of The Century(Link) [View article]
    Lie to me once, shame on them, lie to me twice, shame on me. I was a customer of CTL. Terrible service. Probably setting themselves up for a buyout. Buy AT&T if you want a good telecom.
    Feb 21, 2013. 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Rivet & Machine: An Under The Radar, Potentially Undervalued Benefactor Of The Rebounding U.S. Auto Industry [View article]
    Do you have any idea of how many companies can make screws? Having owned a metal fabricating business, I can tell you that screw machines are a dime a dozen. Every little shop outside Detroit can be in this business in weeks. There is no entry level problem (capital requirements) to this market. There is no brand value, no patents, no unique manufacturing skills, no nothing that makes this industry different.

    You would do well to keep looking for other companies that supply the auto industry.
    Feb 8, 2013. 02:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Apple Investors Really Expect Over The Next 3 Years? [View article]
    Hard to predict. With 50% of Apple's assets in cash were do the earnings come from? Not from cash. It is very hard to keep topping yourself. MIcrosoft quickly found out that nobody needs Windows 8.

    This stock is flat unless they: 1. pay out more in dividends, 2. pay down debt, 3. do a big time M&A. Without a stock split, the retail market is no longer a player. Maybe it is OK to be IBM.
    Feb 8, 2013. 02:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fasten Your Safety Belts In 2013 [View article]
    Very well defined article.

    My only comments revert to unemployment, which I believe won't diminish anytime soon, the impact of US produced energy, the aging population and the discounting of currency by QE 1-4

    The main and continuous unemployment sector is construction labor plus the secondary level of labor in the manufacturing and distribution of construction materials. Although the Fed has keep mortgage rates down, real estate is going the way of bonds as an investment play. Without full employment you don't have rapid inflation.

    No one has yet factored in the impact of being non dependent on foreign oil. The jobs created, the funds kept at home in the form of increased family earnings and the taxes generated by this, have to be factored in.

    With 40 million people over 65 and an additional 3.65 million added each year, will change the landscape of invested capital. Equities are essentially the only play. Bonds don't provide enough yield to assist social security income.

    Lastly, with the discounted value of the currency, both individuals and corporations will have to find a place for the cash. M & A, and a need for higher earnings will put that cash into play.
    Feb 3, 2013. 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment