Stephen Ngai

The Fed Capitulates, But Will It Help?

It helps but a couple days late.

If Mr. Bernanke announced this 0.75% rate cut last week, there might not be the Monday & Tuesday global market melt down especially Japan, India & Hong Kong.

I hate the set up of this melt down by those institutions.

It's Ugly Out There. What's Washington Waiting For?

Again, you can say whatever you want. I don't buy them.

Another 500 point drop in Japan, 2 days, they dropped 1K points. You may need your diapers to be changed, for me, I just point out the truth. The truth is do it or leave it, History will judge Mr. Bernanke's performance, not you nor me for Mr. Bernanke is facing the WORLD, not your nor me.

It's Ugly Out There. What's Washington Waiting For?

The US stock market is off to one of its worst starts in history, credit is shrinking, and home prices are declining at rates never seen before. The current credit and housing crises have been on the front pages of even non-business newspapers since last summer. It’s a mess out there. At the same time, our nation’s leaders in Washington are still assuring Americans that they are monitoring the situation closely and will be ready to act in order to avoid any negative consequences of the current credit crisis. What are they waiting for?

Are you challenging the authors of this article???

Short more please tomorrow if you are a man. I doubt it.

It's Ugly Out There. What's Washington Waiting For?

You can only mislead the newbies. You are PROUD Of living in DEEP RECESSION of US.

The HUGE 7% drop in global markets is the vote that US will face a deep recession. The global markets is forcing Mr. Bernanke to take action. Read what Mr. Bernanke said last week.

With the continued free fall of the global market, our economy and financial system will be seriously affected.

Foreign money?????? Where?????

You must be kidding, housing is going to improve, is that easy????? Why Citi & Mer wrote off billions????

Every stock exchange in this world is on FIRE. Where is the foreign money?????

I have no problem with shorts, however, when there is FEAR & NO CONFIDENCE to the very extreme, it is time for Mr. Bernanke to step in. Otherwise, there will be BANKRUPTCY in the market.

It's Ugly Out There. What's Washington Waiting For?

You can say whatever you want. I don't really care about you. Look like you ENJOY & being PROUD OF living in a deep recession economy of United States.

I care the financial stability of this economy. Mr. Bernanke's job is to maintain this stability.

Again, Shorts are AXIS OF EVILS. Don't be too GREEDY, SHORTS.

It's Ugly Out There. What's Washington Waiting For?

Today, Canadian, European & Asian Markets are down 5%-8%, is that ridiculous in addition to the drop of 20% in the past months.

You must be on the selling side for this game is worth it for you.

The market went down almost on every day of 70% of the trading days in the past 3 months. Who will come to buy in the stock market?

With the promotion of "RECESSION is coming to TOWN" by all media and most analysts in the past 3 months, who will buy ? Who will hold?

Stock market is an indicator of the economy. Do we want to repeat the deep recession of 1931 due to the free fall of stock market?

We are already suffered by the sub-prime, do we want to suffer more in stock market, credit cards................

SHORTS ARE AXIS OF EVILS, When these shorts play the game to the very extreme, I don't think Mr. Bernanke & President Bush will sit idlely watching them destroying the economy & stock market.

It's Ugly Out There. What's Washington Waiting For?

These are not the issues of bailing and bubbles. The critical point = CONFIDENCE. With Domino effects, the market will be dropped endlessly everyday. Do we need this continued free fall?

In this case, the financial system, and all economic systems will be destroyed and ruined by "NO CONFIDENCE". It will be a horrible global recession.

Anything that is down 20%, it is ridiculous. The economy is not that bad to deserve this 20% drop. Due to the everyday continiued degrading by the media and selling side analysts, they have created the FEAR, they have destroyed the CONFIDENCE of everyone. We can't underestimate these effects.

The FEAR together with NO CONFIDENCE will seriously hurt this economy and financial sector, Does Mr. Bernanke want to see this?

China's Volatile Gaming Industry

Question to David Oliver:

What standards are you using in classifying & to define the followings:
1. First Tier?
2. 2nd Tier?
3. Other Tiers?

In Chinese Game Industry, there is no official business practices of defining and classifying the games into each tier.

You bashed Shanda of licensing second tier games. You are misleading the readers here.

My question: Who define which tier based on industrial standard?

If this is only your opinion, your analysis is not objective. Keep on shorting SNDA PLEASSSSSEEEEE!

China's Volatile Gaming Industry

Do you guys really know and understand Game industry in China?

I doubt it. Stephen Ngai

Disclosure: I am holding SNDA shares.

Investing In China's Online Gaming Sector

A-share market is more risky that Nasdaq Market.

I won't touch A-share market for most of shares having bubble prices.

In Nasdaq, most of Chinese Companies are surrounded by those professional hedge funds and short sellers. Like Shanda, it short interest in Dec. 2006 was 4.4 million shares out of the float of around 20 million. My opinion, Shanda is highed undervalued.

With all the new games and turning around of all new business, Shanda will make at least $1.00 EPS in year 2007.

Look at those companies that were bought in the past 2-3 years, what will happen if Shanda Spin them off for IPO?

I won't trust any articles or posts. I only trust on my analysis and digestion of all articles in my research. Stephen Ngai

Investing In China's Online Gaming Sector

It looks like you judge Shanda only based on a few posts of BBS forum. It is dangerous for you don't look at other variables and factors.

There are hundreds of million of players in China. The growth was 30% for 2006 & 25% for 2007 in dollar amounts of game industry in China as you mentioned as above. They won't play Shanda games as per your discriminated post.

Do you know that there are 5 GOOD NEW games will be launched in early January?

A lot of Good news will be coming for Shanda. Time will tell.

Disclosure: I am holding SNDA shares. Stephen Ngai

TOM Online Must Focus on Products: Connections Don't Ensure Success

Practically, you can't do business well in China if you don't have CONNECTION. In business school, 4 Ps can only be applied well in North America. For China, you need 4 Ps + Connection.

How can you sell MOT phone, EL lipstick or COH bag if you don't have the followings:
1. Good location
2. All licenses of all levels of governments
3. All permits of all regulators
4. Permissions / Permits of New Products and New Businesses
5. Others

Connection will help to get all of the above.

Setting up a business in China especially an internet related company is very complicated. Without Connection, you can do nothing although you have the BEST 4 Ps. Without Connection, you can't sell new products and you can't get into those new profitable JVs.

As a former Ebay executive mentioned on your Article, " They (Ebay) needed to listen to the Eachnet Team which were closer to the consumers." This is the reason why Ebay have to marry Tom in China.

You may not know Li Ka Shing (Li) well. His son's drama of PCCW / CN had no effect on his relationship with China. Please don't under-estimate the Gold Finger of Li due to his vision, his ways of handling businesses and his way of managing good government connections.

Please don't under-estimate Wang Lei Lei, time will tell that he is WAYMORE CAPABLE to turn around the business of this Ebay Eachnet/Tom JV.

TOM is NOT in a sector this is at the mercy of CHL. TOM is the TIER 1 in wireless internet as comparing to SINA & SOHU based on the revenues of this sector. You are discriminating TOM.

Time will prove you (SELL) are right or wrong.

Disclosure: I am holding shares of TOMO and SNDA.

Despite Shanda's Q2 Improvement, Uncertainties Linger

Response to:
"Shanda is also at work trying to boost sales of a web TV-like console it calls EZ Pod. Q2 sales grew sharply but the device faces a challenge from government regulation. "

EZ Pod is bundled with Netcom's CNC MAX which is also called Max Pod. Do you know Netcom is a State Owned Corp.?

Response to:
"it could be a "victim of its own success" because gamers willing to spend the most are almost certain they'll win, perhaps removing the losers from gaming (or a particular game) permanently. "

The person who mentioned the above doesn't know the online gaming industry of China. Keep on shorting this company, please.

Stephen Ngai, A long & strong shareholder of SNDA

Shanda Interactive and the Importance of Guanxi (SNDA, DIS, CHL)

On the eve of ER of 2nd quarter, I am still betting on LONG on SNDA.

You have terrific products, but if you can't have good distribution channels or you can't get the Consent from all levels of governments, you can't sell your products effectively to the consumers.

Good Government Connection, Guanxi is extremely important if you want to do business in China. This is absolutely NO DOUBT. No Guanxi = Death to the Business.

For Shanda, they get the support from CNC (China Netcom) to have EZ POD to be bundled as CNC MAX Pod, this is a by-product of good Guanxi.

Do you know there are 7 education channels in EZ Pod now?

Do you know that ALL chinese parents want their children to be future STARS, to be fluent and to be good in English. All Chineses want their children to have TIER I education in those Ivy League Schools in USA. They won't care to spend for the education of their kids.

My opinion is these 7 education channels will help the EZ Pod / Max Pod to become more popular.

Hong Kong Disney's problem was created from the impotence of the MD of Disney of HK. It is an isolated case. We can mix this problem with Disney China & Shanda.

Disney is planning a new Park in Shanghai in future 5 years, Do you know that?

Disney's co-operation with SHANDA is to bring Disney's content to the young players of China Online Casual Game Market. They want to promote Disney Brand & their animated characters to all young Chinese People before the opening of Shanghai's Park. China have around 10 times population of USA. The Market for Disney's Park(s) in China is Huge. This is their (In Advance) Marketing Plan which involving minimal costs for Shanda is to develop, to distribute and to operate this new Disney content game on Shanda's platform.

Do you know Actoz will launch 3 new games at the end of the year? Shanda will have the first priority.

Do you know Archlord is doing very well?

Do you know DDO will have its open beta testing on 08/28/06? Do you know SNDA have the magic to stir the crowd to play their games?

The markets & variables have been changed in favour of Shanda. EZ Pod is the most critical point. EZ Pod is getting more respects from the consumers now especially after the addition of 7 education channels.

Finally, the leaving of those senior executives and other staffs is a good sign. Costs cutting is the only way to keep the Shanda to be financial sounded after their aggressive expansion.

Time will tell.

Stephen