Stephen Ngai

China's Volatile Gaming Industry

Question to David Oliver:

What standards are you using in classifying & to define the followings:
1. First Tier?
2. 2nd Tier?
3. Other Tiers?

In Chinese Game Industry, there is no official business practices of defining and classifying the games into each tier.

You bashed Shanda of licensing second tier games. You are misleading the readers here.

My question: Who define which tier based on industrial standard?

If this is only your opinion, your analysis is not objective. Keep on shorting SNDA PLEASSSSSEEEEE!

China's Volatile Gaming Industry

Do you guys really know and understand Game industry in China?

I doubt it. Stephen Ngai

Disclosure: I am holding SNDA shares.

Investing In China's Online Gaming Sector

A-share market is more risky that Nasdaq Market.

I won't touch A-share market for most of shares having bubble prices.

In Nasdaq, most of Chinese Companies are surrounded by those professional hedge funds and short sellers. Like Shanda, it short interest in Dec. 2006 was 4.4 million shares out of the float of around 20 million. My opinion, Shanda is highed undervalued.

With all the new games and turning around of all new business, Shanda will make at least $1.00 EPS in year 2007.

Look at those companies that were bought in the past 2-3 years, what will happen if Shanda Spin them off for IPO?

I won't trust any articles or posts. I only trust on my analysis and digestion of all articles in my research. Stephen Ngai

Investing In China's Online Gaming Sector

It looks like you judge Shanda only based on a few posts of BBS forum. It is dangerous for you don't look at other variables and factors.

There are hundreds of million of players in China. The growth was 30% for 2006 & 25% for 2007 in dollar amounts of game industry in China as you mentioned as above. They won't play Shanda games as per your discriminated post.

Do you know that there are 5 GOOD NEW games will be launched in early January?

A lot of Good news will be coming for Shanda. Time will tell.

Disclosure: I am holding SNDA shares. Stephen Ngai

Despite Shanda's Q2 Improvement, Uncertainties Linger

Response to:
"Shanda is also at work trying to boost sales of a web TV-like console it calls EZ Pod. Q2 sales grew sharply but the device faces a challenge from government regulation. "

EZ Pod is bundled with Netcom's CNC MAX which is also called Max Pod. Do you know Netcom is a State Owned Corp.?

Response to:
"it could be a "victim of its own success" because gamers willing to spend the most are almost certain they'll win, perhaps removing the losers from gaming (or a particular game) permanently. "

The person who mentioned the above doesn't know the online gaming industry of China. Keep on shorting this company, please.

Stephen Ngai, A long & strong shareholder of SNDA

Shanda Interactive and the Importance of Guanxi (SNDA, DIS, CHL)

On the eve of ER of 2nd quarter, I am still betting on LONG on SNDA.

You have terrific products, but if you can't have good distribution channels or you can't get the Consent from all levels of governments, you can't sell your products effectively to the consumers.

Good Government Connection, Guanxi is extremely important if you want to do business in China. This is absolutely NO DOUBT. No Guanxi = Death to the Business.

For Shanda, they get the support from CNC (China Netcom) to have EZ POD to be bundled as CNC MAX Pod, this is a by-product of good Guanxi.

Do you know there are 7 education channels in EZ Pod now?

Do you know that ALL chinese parents want their children to be future STARS, to be fluent and to be good in English. All Chineses want their children to have TIER I education in those Ivy League Schools in USA. They won't care to spend for the education of their kids.

My opinion is these 7 education channels will help the EZ Pod / Max Pod to become more popular.

Hong Kong Disney's problem was created from the impotence of the MD of Disney of HK. It is an isolated case. We can mix this problem with Disney China & Shanda.

Disney is planning a new Park in Shanghai in future 5 years, Do you know that?

Disney's co-operation with SHANDA is to bring Disney's content to the young players of China Online Casual Game Market. They want to promote Disney Brand & their animated characters to all young Chinese People before the opening of Shanghai's Park. China have around 10 times population of USA. The Market for Disney's Park(s) in China is Huge. This is their (In Advance) Marketing Plan which involving minimal costs for Shanda is to develop, to distribute and to operate this new Disney content game on Shanda's platform.

Do you know Actoz will launch 3 new games at the end of the year? Shanda will have the first priority.

Do you know Archlord is doing very well?

Do you know DDO will have its open beta testing on 08/28/06? Do you know SNDA have the magic to stir the crowd to play their games?

The markets & variables have been changed in favour of Shanda. EZ Pod is the most critical point. EZ Pod is getting more respects from the consumers now especially after the addition of 7 education channels.

Finally, the leaving of those senior executives and other staffs is a good sign. Costs cutting is the only way to keep the Shanda to be financial sounded after their aggressive expansion.

Time will tell.

Stephen