Seeking Alpha

stevereid

stevereid
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View stevereid's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • "I Don't Know How To Answer Your Question": Microsoft's Steve Ballmer [View article]
    What was the P/E ratio when Steve Ballmer became CEO. My bet is that it was up around 50, and much of the drop in stock price is a reflection of returning to a more moderate level.
    Watch out below for Amazon at some point with there lofty P.E ratio.
    Nov 20 06:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple closes lower in spite of praise; Benioff sees Ahrendts as next CEO [View news story]
    Wouldn't it be great if Tim Cook would end his next presentation by using the Steve Jobs pitch (as he walks off the stage after making his presentation)

    "OH, THERE'S ONE OTHER THING"

    and have that "thing" be the monetization of the iPhone.
    Oct 29 09:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple closes lower in spite of praise; Benioff sees Ahrendts as next CEO [View news story]
    I would like to start a conversation-- first with an observation, then with a question, and finally with a suggestion.
    1. The Observation: I see people using their smart phones a a "boarding pass" at airports. I assume they can do this either by sending it to the Passbook App, or by e-mailing it to themselves and "flashing" it under the light that confirms their authenticity to board.
    2. The Question(s): Does (can) Apple monetize these transactions? I would think this could grow to become a very lucrative market segment. Which leads to a bigger question: How far off is the day when smart phones will be used as credit cards?
    Apple has over 100 million customers (many are stakeholders) who could use this service. With the new fingerprint technology, I would think this application is not far off, as the security question should be fairly easy to resolve. The existing credit card companies would want in on this and would be best qualified to administer these programs as they have done the credit searches and approvals, but apple could monetize this by charging a small fee for each transaction. Given the large number of existing customers, the earning potential is huge.
    I am reminded of the Edwin Land Camera (Kodak) 20-30 years ago when the camera (the Polaroid) was practically given away in order to SELL the film (which is where the money was made).
    My hope is that others will add to this conversation and we can present a new and lucrative idea to the Apple Management Team. I am long Apple and want to see them succeed mightily.
    Oct 29 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Apple: FQ3 gross margin was 36.9%, -590 bps Y/Y but above guidance midpoint of 36.5%. GM of 36%-37% expected in FQ4. Americas and Japan were strong spots: exc. retail, sales rose 12% and 27% Y/Y, up from FQ2's +7% and +19%. Europe (-8% vs. +11%), China (-14% vs. +8%), and rest of Asia-Pac (-18% vs. +26%) were weak. Retail sales flat vs. FQ2's +19%. $146.6B in cash/investments and $17B in debt at quarter's end. iPhone revenue +15%, up from FQ2's +3%. But iPad -27% (+40% prior); Mac -1% (+7% prior). 4.6M iPods sold, revenue -31% Y/Y. iTunes/software/services +25% to $4B, Accessories -4% to $1.2B. AAPL +4.6% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Goog and MSFT both missed when they reported last week, AAPL exceeded the street consensus. This speaks to brand loyalty and a strong business even when no new products (or incremental improvements) were made during the quarter. It also indicates that AAPL is holding its own against the competition, and much of the competition is not.
    Keep the faith. When AAPL does come out with the new product innovations that they are working on the stock will respond.
    Jul 23 06:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "A material inflection has occurred in Q1," says Stifel of Google (GOOG), noting IgnitionOne reporting search spend dropping 1% Y/Y this quarter. For the past 8 quarters, the same metric has averaged up 18% Y/Y. "Although only one data point, the read through to Google U.S. revenue growth is clear and negative." Shares -0.7% premarket. [View news story]
    Owners of GOOG have seen a nearly 5% drop since the beginning of March--from 844 to 803. Owners of AAPl have seen a rise of over 8.5% from 419 to 455 in the same time period (since March 4).
    STRATEGY: sell GOOG and buy AAPL as the continue their flight paths to meet somewhere in the middle, probably around 600-650.
    GOOG P/E too high at over 25, AAPL too low at less that 10.
    Mar 27 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Up 10% From The Bottom And Going Higher [View article]
    Sell GOOG and buy AAPL. In the month of March APPL up over 10% from 419 to 461 and GOOG down 4% from 844 to 811. GOOG has a P/E of over 25 and AAPL under 10. Which has the most downside risk and which had the most upside potential.
    If you have a 2 year++ horizon, is it not reasonable to expect the two stocks to meet somewhere in the middle, perhaps around 600-650 with equal P/e's of around 15. If that happens, you will own shares of the two tech leaders and will have re-balanced your portfolio.
    Mar 24 12:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Mighty Apple Really Falling? [View article]
    During March AAPL has risen 10.02 % and GOOG has fallen 3.99%.
    Simple strategy, sell GOOG and Buy AAPL. At some point in the next 2-3 years you will end up with shares of the two leaders in the tech sector, probably priced in the $600-700 range.
    Mar 22 07:23 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An ITC administrative law judge clears Microsoft (MSFT) of infringing a Motorola Mobility (GOOG) Wi-Fi patent; the commission will make a final ruling on the matter in July. The patent in question is the only one Motorola is still asserting in its ITC suit against Microsoft - complaints related to 4 other patents have been dropped. Microsoft and Motorola have reportedly been haggling over settlement terms for their long-running legal battle. [View news story]
    For the last few weeks, since the beginning of March, at which time AAPL hit a low for the last year and GOOG hit an all time high, I have been advocating selling GOOG and buying AAPL. Anyone who followed this advice saved a drop of 3.99% in GOOG and gained 10.02% on AAPL.
    It is likely this trend will continue, especially considering that AAPL has not responded to the outcry from critics that it release some of it's cash hoard and/or come out with cheaper products to respond to the emerging economies around the world. Assuming that they will, in fact, respond in some fashion in the coming months, this strategy will play out until the two stock prices meet somewhere in the middle.
    Mar 22 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Google Credibility Gap? [View article]
    I hope you redirected the profit from selling half your GOOG position to AAPL. I think that GOOG is poised for a drop in price and P?E ratio to somewhere closer to 15, and that AAPL is poised to rise from a P/E of under 10 up to 15. Thus, as GOOG shares are sold, and AAPL bought, you will end up with a somewhat equal number of shares of each of the companies likely to dominate the Tech sector for several years.
    This should be a good strategy for the next 2-3 years.
    Mar 21 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Picking The Star From The Information Technology Universe [View article]
    Based on your assumptions, AAPL is much more attractive than GOOG, especially at current prices. GOOG is near it's all time high of $844.00 (achieved on March 4) and AAPL: is near it's one year low of $419.00 (on March 5). In the last 10 days GOOG has dropped to 814.30 and AAPL has risen to 443.66. Interestingly, GOOG began it's slide when the first prediction of $1000.00 came out.
    Here is a strategy: As GOOG declines, which I think it will, sell GOOG and buy AAPL, which I think will continue to advance.
    Sometime during the next 3-5 years they will meet in the middle, around 600, and you will own shares in the two TECH leaders, rather than shares in only one.
    Mar 16 11:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Do You Hear The Crickets? [View article]
    APPL near yearly low of 419.00 at close Friday of $443.66. GOOG near all time high of 844.00 at close Friday of 814.30. The trend over the last 10 days is up for AAPL and down for GOOG (ever since the predictions for GOOG at 1,000 ++ hit the street.
    Here is an investment strategy for owners of GOOG--reduce your GOOG position and buy AAPL. In 3-5 years they will still be the leading TECH companies, and you will end up with an equal value in your holdings of each.
    For example, had you sold 100 shares of GOOG on March 5, at the high, you would have saved $2,970 in losses. Had you bought 100 shares of AAPL on March 4, at the low, you would be $2,466 ahead.
    The combined net gain would be $5,436.
    Oh, and one more thing-..The GOOG P/E is over 25, and the AAPL P/E is under 10. Is this a realistic divergence? Is it not reasonable to think that at some point in the next 3-5 years that they will meet near 15 P/E?
    Mar 16 11:53 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's a good time to buy 2015 Apple (AAPL) LEAPs at a $500 strike price, thinks Bill Miller, who went on CNBC to make a bull case for the fruit company. Miller observes Apple now trades at a lower forward EV/EBITDA multiple than Safeway, Kroger, and H-P, and expects the company to "do something fairly dramatic on capital allocation." Others have also argued in favor of buying Apple LEAPs to gain leverage. The Jan. '15 $500 LEAPs currently have an ask of $45 (they rose sharply following Miller's recommendation). [View news story]
    Here is an investment strategy. GOOG is near it's all time high (hit March 5) at 844.00. Apple is near a yearly low of 419.00 hit March 4).
    Since then GOOG has gone to 814.30 and AAPL to 443.66. Thus, if you had sold 100 shares of GOOG on March 4, you would have saved $3,030, and if you had bought 100 shares of AAPL that day you would have gained $2,466. You would be ahead $5,496 in the last 10 days.
    It looks to me like GOOG is beginning to get bad news, and Apple is beginning to get good news. If this trend continues they may meet around 600 and you would have an equal number of shares in the two TECH LEADERS.

    Oh, one other thing.....AAPL has a P/E under 10 and GOOG over 25. Ask yourself, is GOOG 2 1/2 times better?
    Mar 15 07:58 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB) workers love Mark Zuckerberg: the founder/CEO of the world's biggest social network has received a 99% approval rating from employees on Glassdoor; that's up from 2012's 85%. SAP co-CEOs Bill McDermott and Jim Hagemann, who have been trying to remake the software giant's culture, also come in at 99%. Other tech CEOs receiving high marks include EMC's Joe Tucci (96%), Qualcomm's (QCOM) Paul Jacobs (95%), Google's (GOOG) Larry Page (95%), and Citrix's (CTXS) Mark Templeton (95%). Tim Cook (AAPL) and Jeff Bezos (AMZN) both come in at 93%. [View news story]
    Here is an investment strategy. Now that GOOG is near it's high of 844.00 and Apple is near it's (short term) low of $419.00, it is time to sell GOOG, now at 814.30 and buy AAPL,now at $443.66.
    If you had started this strategy on March 5, at which time GOOG hit 844.00 and AAPL hit 419.00, using 100 shares of each as an example, you would be ahead $3,030 on AAPL and you would have saved a loss of $2,466 on GOOG, for a net gain of $5,496.
    I think it is likely that these trends will continue until they meet somewhere in the middle around $600 a share.
    Just a thought.
    Mar 15 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Google Won't Reach $1,000 [View article]
    If you look ahead 3-5 years it is likely that Google and Apple will still be the two dominant players in the tech sector. Currently, Google is selling for a P/E over 25, while Apple is selling for a P/E of less than 10. It is likely that at some point in the next 5 years that they will meet at around 15. Doesn't it make sense for long term investors to sell Google as it drops from 25 to 15, and buy Apple as it increases from 10 to 15. The net result is that the investor will end up with shares of both companies at a reasonable valuation.
    Mar 14 04:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Google's shakeup (part deux): the WSJ reports Jeff Huber will move to Google X, which is responsible for Glass, self-driving cars, and other cutting-edge projects. Search chief Alan Eustace will take control of Maps, and ad chief Susan Wojcicki will assume responsibility for commerce. There's a pattern to the moves of the last 2 days: Google (GOOG) is putting complementary products - Android and Chrome OS, Maps and search, ads and commerce - under common leadership, apparently with the goal of fostering greater integration. Apple recently did something similar[View news story]
    Look ahead 3-5 years. Apple and Google will likely be the two dominant players in the Tech sector. Right now, Google has a PE ratio over 25 and Apple below 10. It is likely that sometime during the next 3-5 years they will both settle around 15, in which case it would make sense to sell GOOG at the high valuation and buy AAPL at the low valuation. At some point you will end up with a balance of the two shares.
    Mar 14 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
30 Comments
58 Likes