Seeking Alpha

CatchingKnives

CatchingKnives
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View CatchingKnives' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Long Case For AK Steel Holding Corp. [View article]
    More and more catalysts are coming to fruition. Another month or so until guidance?
    Aug 22, 2014. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case For AK Steel Holding Corp. [View article]
    What do you make of the recent announcement regarding the reduction in pension obligations?

    http://bit.ly/1q3f2yL

    Wiping out these obligations is a major plus for AKS and one of the big reasons I like them.
    Aug 10, 2014. 02:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Buying AK Steel [View article]
    Everyone should look at the past several weeks of Weekly Rail Traffic. Starting to get very bullish for Motor Vehicles and Parts. Up 46% YOY this week, 65% last week, 54% the week before. Overall it's up 4.7% YOY. This was after a TERRIBLE start to 2014 due, in part, to "polar vortex" issues. Should be a very nice end of the year. I hold all my options for $7 and $10 strikes.
    Jul 24, 2014. 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Anadarko Litigation Affects Tronox [View article]
    In early trading it appears that APC was the better buy. Let's see how tomorrow trades now that it's settled. 5.15bb was the high end of the potential liability that APC saw for themselves.
    Apr 3, 2014. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Anadarko Litigation Affects Tronox [View article]
    Looks like things are shaping up nicely from TROX. Nice pick.
    Feb 27, 2014. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Buying AK Steel [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. I think I just need to check my portfolio less...
    Feb 25, 2014. 04:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Buying AK Steel [View article]
    So who still has their core holdings intact? Anyone make any adjustments? Been a bumpy ride lately, eh? I'm still holding everything, and have added a bit.
    Feb 25, 2014. 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Steel And AK Steel: Are The Analysts Right? [View article]
    Recently there have been increases in steel imports, but domestic production has been staying relatively constant. What that says to me, if I am looking at this correctly, is that demand for steel is increasing. If imports are restricted, we may see more domestic production.

    http://bit.ly/1c5IqOs

    http://bit.ly/1c5IqOt
    Feb 5, 2014. 11:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Steel And AK Steel: Are The Analysts Right? [View article]
    Not off topic at all considering that AKS has filed anti-dumping petitions recently.

    http://bit.ly/1jgu4D2

    http://bit.ly/1jgu4D4
    Feb 5, 2014. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Anadarko Litigation Affects Tronox [View article]
    I'm sure you saw the APC earnings. $850mm to $5.15bb is the new range they give. Those potentially outcomes have now come up substantially from their $850mm to $1.75bb numbers. I think there may be an incentive for all parties to settle and I think that APC may be laying the groundwork for such a settlement within that range. I liked the following two bits:

    "Based on information currently available to it, the company is unable to identify an amount within this range that is a better estimate than any other number in the range. When no amount within the range is a better estimate than any other amount, accounting guidance requires an accrual to be at the low end of the range of loss."

    "The company currently expects that a settlement of the proceeding, if any, would require payment of an amount substantially greater than the current accrued liability." That is, the $850mm.

    If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say a $3-4bb settlement makes sense. While it's lower than the potential judgement that Judge Gropper laid out, it is within the range that APC is publicly presenting to its shareholders and it avoids continued litigation--something that could obviously result in TROX getting nothing.

    Your NPV tables assuming discounts are appreciated. I'd guess that $1bb or less has been discounted so a share price of around $27 seems plausible. Or a 20+% upside.

    http://bit.ly/1cOKzCp
    Feb 3, 2014. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Buying AK Steel [View article]
    I agree, I thought it was a very good call and management has done a tremendous job righting this ship. Planning and execution by a good management team is crucial and cannot readily be evaluated on a pure fundemental basis and assuredly not a technical one. However, I do have concerns about their FCF and think that it will be tricky to maintain positive earnings this year. With that said, let's not kid ourselves--this company is in a race to put its massive $150mm+ yearly pension costs behind it. Once it does there will be quite a bit of extra cash around. Analysts need to look beyond the next 4 or even 8 quarters to 2016 when this company is generating between $1.5-2 per share without it's pension costs (and JV start up costs). At a conservative 12 P/E that gives us a share price of $18-24. Who wants a chance to make 250-350% in 2 years? I do.
    Jan 29, 2014. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Buying AK Steel [View article]
    Earnings tomorrow before the bell. Good luck to all. Been a tough few weeks, but heavy call volume at $7s for Feb and June today. Let's see what happens and what guidance brings...
    Jan 27, 2014. 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Ryan: Ideas for reducing poverty [View news story]
    Ha, all is forgiven then!
    Jan 26, 2014. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • December Existing Home Sales: The Housing Bear Market Is Back [View article]
    David, curious what you think about these graphs below after your statement that the "'low inventory' story is 100% false." I like facts, please point me to some that imply that this "story" is a false one. According to FRED:

    1. Existing Home Sales: Housing Inventory: 1999-2013
    http://bit.ly/1fgmUeh
    Peaked in 2007, sharp decline since then, now comparable to 2000. Doesn't look like much excess inventory here.

    2. Housing Inventory Estimate: Vacant Housing Units for Sale for the United States: 2000-2013
    http://bit.ly/1fgmVPA
    Nearing 2005 levels. Still don't see that excess.

    3. Housing Inventory Estimate: Occupied Housing Units for the United States: 2000-2013
    http://bit.ly/1fgmVPC
    Steady trend upwards, looks like more and more people are occupying homes (we are also seeing an expanding population).

    4. Housing Inventory Estimate: Vacant Housing Units for Rent for the United States: 2000-2013
    http://bit.ly/1fgmVPE
    Below 2004 levels, not too much vacancy in the rental market.

    When I look at all of this together I see low rental vacancies, increasing numbers of occupied homes, and decreasing existing home inventories. We are one of three places: we either have excess inventory, we have just the right amount of inventory, or we have low inventory. Doesn't look to be excess inventory. By deduction we either have just the right amount of inventory or low inventory. Which one is it?
    Jan 26, 2014. 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Ryan: Ideas for reducing poverty [View news story]
    Communities of Hasidic Jews consumer tremendous amounts of government assistance. Look at the example of Kiryas Joel, although I can find you many more.

    http://bit.ly/1aVgEY5
    Jan 26, 2014. 11:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
40 Comments
24 Likes