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junjian6467

junjian6467
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  • iRobot Corp.: About To Short-Circuit [View article]
    great article, great points. I guess u shorted at 45? Nice call
    May 20 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Led By Mobile, Baidu Can Beat By More Than 40% [View article]
    His articles are for the sake of writing them, so just click and close. Funny points, lots of "useful" information.
    Feb 3 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting The Last Nail In The Coffin For Qihoo 360? [View article]
    you can pay me for any translations in the future, Qihu's cloud based security is probably one of the best freebies out there.
    Aug 19 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Investing In Baidu Stock A Good Idea? [View article]
    it was a long time ago, when baidu was about 88? I said baidu was a buy despite concerns. Look at Qihu's search engine market share, only 10% of that comes from so.com it self, in other words most of the market share comes from its browser website. In other words Qihu's search engine only get growth if their browser becomes more popular. Now look at Qihu's browser share, 27% in 2010 27% in 2012, no real growth and during the two years suffered a bumpy ride.(info from CNZZ) anyways that was kind of my point Im long baidu btw :]
    Aug 12 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Investing In Baidu Stock A Good Idea? [View article]
    wow they published this and denied mine
    Aug 11 06:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iRobot Is Still Undervalued And Attractive - Buy Recommendation [View article]
    great comment, given the recent acquisition and all the uncertainties with the company it is overpriced for now.
    Jun 24 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Roundup: Baidu's Upcoming Acquisition And Why Shares Of Renren Are Worth $7.40 [View article]
    Im saying that the 1.1b is on the A shares only, which is the ADRs, the B shares are owned by the CEO and other company executives, its like FB, if u look at FB's market cap its not the "real" market cap cause of all the hidden stuff u will find in annual reports, go read the AR and u'll know wat I mean.
    May 13 01:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Roundup: Baidu's Upcoming Acquisition And Why Shares Of Renren Are Worth $7.40 [View article]
    Dear Author,

    Renren's market cap is not 1.15B as shown on seekingalpha.com, it is actually a lot more since there are two classes of shares, A and B. Which means the actual market cap is around 3-4B, or about $10 per user I believe? I did some research into the company a while back can't remember the specifics but the actual market cap is definitely a lot higher.

    Just my 2 cents
    May 9 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Safe Bulkers: Smart Management With Skin In The Game [View article]
    Hi Lambros, great article. In the fourth quarter of 2011, Paragon Shipping Inc. revalued their fleet and incurred an impairment loss of $277.33m. In 2011 Frontline Ltd reported an impairment expense on their ships of $121.4m and a loss on sale of assets of $307.9m. In 2011 Dryships Inc. revalued their fleet and recorded a loss of $144.7m. This is just the tip of the iceberg: as fleet sizes expand and demand shrinks, the TCE rates will be significantly affected. Right now, many shippers are enjoying 2008–2010 rates, well above what is offered in the current market. If the demand for dry-bulk ships stays at these levels and rates do not increase significantly (and they shouldn’t, given the prevailing market conditions), then we should see a massive decline in ship values. A revaluation of Safe Bulkers fleet is only a matter of time and a decline in equity value should follow suit. I will post my article on SB and hope it gets approved, you can take a look at it. I dont think SB is a bad bet right now but simply stating the facts around the ship value area.
    Mar 12 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Safe Bulkers: Smart Management With Skin In The Game [View article]
    Ship prices has being at the current levels for a long time, and that is precisely why other dry bulk companies has written down their ship values. In their conference call, Safe Bulker's executive stated clearly that their ship values should be written down by at least 150m, it is something widely known. The reality is they will have to write down their fleet and it is naive to assume they shouldn't because the "future" will be better. To forecast like that is exactly the naive thing to do, the value of a company is the PV of its FFCF. Not the FV of its FFCF. As for the default risk, it is there, and so I simply stated that there is a "default risk" no matter how small or how big. No point arguing over something so clear and simple, I see nothing naive about getting into the shipper now but at 7 dollars it does seems like a gamble. Like I said, their ship values are exaggerated and there IS a default risk.
    Mar 12 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Safe Bulkers: Smart Management With Skin In The Game [View article]
    actually they brought the ships at a premium to today's market prices for those ships. Every other shipper (except for a few) has written down the value of their fleet according to the disparity between the purchase price and market price for those ships. This is not a "fundamental shift" but a reality. As for the company's earnings, their default risk arises from the lack of book value and the low EBITA/Total liabilities. Maybe you should read their annual reports and do some industry research.
    Mar 10 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu: Don't Play This Dog For The Long Term [View article]
    umm I didnt say anything about u lol. 13% now haha, a threat is a threat, regardless of how insignificant the threat may be.
    Mar 10 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Safe Bulkers: Smart Management With Skin In The Game [View article]
    Safe Bulker's book value is exaggerated, they should have re valued their fleet like everyone else. This would bring their book down by more than 150m, which means they are trading at a premium to book. I like the company but the default risk could prove to be fatal. Some of their contracts are expected to expire and the dry bulk industry in general is not doing so well.
    Mar 8 05:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu: Don't Play This Dog For The Long Term [View article]
    Great article, and great comments. I believe the real problem here is the pricing of equity in current markets. Equity prices are more concerned with returns, or "yields". In other words most of the pricing surrounding equity value is the earnings of a company. After all the price of a cashflow generating entity is the PV of FCF. So here there really is a disconnection between the perceived price of Baidu and the market value of Baidu's equity. I wrote an article on Baidu a while back but it was never posted. I talked about how the high price book ratio is not justifiable with so little tangible assets to back up the valuation. But if we look at this company from an earnings perspective it is very cheap. I believe this disconnection will be apparent in the market for as long as Baidu's margins and profitability remains. Which it will, as it is the dominant player in the search engine space. I am long the stock despite my article, as long as Baidu's market position is not threatened (it is since QIhoo entered the search engine market,but no one knows what is going to happen in the future) Baidu is more likely to grow. I will repost the article if anyone is interested, although I dont think it will be approved and I have no interest in editing the article to make it sound "professional".
    Mar 6 02:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GameStop Corp: Fundamental Stock Research Analysis [View article]
    100% agreed. Digital distribution is the future and GME's margins are being hurt as they try to match in pricing. Like what BBY is doing with Amazon, too bad it won't work. I do think GME is a great company though, like their management and what they have done in the past. A short is an exaggeration but long the stock now is equal to gambling.
    Feb 6 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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