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saratogahawk

saratogahawk
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  • Seadrill, Pacific Drilling downgraded at Credit Suisse, with no drilling recovery until 2018-19 [View news story]
    Well the obvious question with recovery starting in 2018-19 and then revenues not picking up for at least a year after that is who survives. I am long this industry but if they are correct that a recovery doesn't begin until 2018/19 than I do not see any of the majors surviving in their current forms. Since major E&Ps are shut down on capex and spending they won't buy a driller so the drillers would go under by default. That takes 40% of the world's oil supply right off the table. Sounds to me like $1000 per bbl oil starting in 2020 or 2021 since no one will be left to go get offshore oil.
    Sep 3, 2015. 05:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Paragon Offshore Next In Petrobras' Bucket List? [View article]
    Fun, I don't know of any contract in the industry that has been written with an open ended terminate without cause clause. I don't think such has ever been done based on my experience and research. Furthermore, since most of the mobilization fees are recovered over the length of the contract those amounts are due and payable immediately if the contract is cancelled. I looked for mobe costs on the Explorer but haven't seem them yet. Typical for a large floater over a long contract (especially with the many client required specials on the rig) would be at least 10-20 million per year. 50-100 million for a contract of this length would not be unexpected. Typical contract cancellation clauses are 60-70% of the contract dayrate plus any unpaid bonuses or incentives. So a contract can not cancel and not pay outstanding contract days, mobilization fees or earned bonuses/incentives for past performance. Even the allegations of contract fraud if proven in court would not mean that PBR has no obligations to pay only that the obligations might be limited based on the differences between the contracted rates and what might have been "fair market value" at the time of contracting. In either case, PBR does not get out of this without paying a substantial chunk of change and likely going concern interest rates on unpaid balances as well.
    Sep 3, 2015. 05:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth cuts dividend payout in half [View news story]
    I think this is proper in light of the really adverse market conditions.
    Sep 1, 2015. 11:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Pain For Penn West [View article]
    In my opinion these moves are proper and fiduciary. Obviously the entire industry is currently bleeding badly. No one has not felt the pain. These types of moves are underway all over as you can see with BTE last week and PGH this am. SLB, HAL, BHI, all have annouced thousands of layoffs and massive cuts in capital spending. Same with Exxon, CVX, BP, TOT, STO, RDS, and on and on. While I am not happy to hold PWE at <$1 I do think it is a survivor and will prosper when oil prices rebound to more reasonable levels. And yes, I am confident that oil prices will rebound to >$80 within the next year or so.
    Sep 1, 2015. 10:47 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euronav signs agreement for new credit facility [View news story]
    Debutant I have started a position in EURN. Best regards as always.
    Sep 1, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Behind The Recent Volatility In The Crude Tanker Shipping Market? [View article]
    I took a position in EURN yesterday. I currently hold CPLP. I have held TOO, TNK, and others. Crude and product tanker companies should do well for the next year at least.
    Aug 27, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining Is Hatching Its Next Spectacular Dividend [View article]
    Just backed the trucked up and hauled home a load of CVRR at 17.90. Should be a strong distribution for the quarter.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Behind The Recent Volatility In The Crude Tanker Shipping Market? [View article]
    James, in looking at VLCC rates for the week of Aug 19 on Hellenic Shipping News I see rates for 1 to 5 year charters in the mid-40K range. Not down in the 30sk as you suggest above.

    While not a huge difference from your comments it is nonetheless significant in that VLC

    http://bit.ly/1hBSbOA revenues are very strong right now and don't look to drop much lower.
    Aug 23, 2015. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy CVR Refining LP - Price Dropping After Ex-Date [View article]
    just sold my ALDW late last week in 2 blocks above 24.50. Tried to pick up more NTI but not willing to chase the price right now. Still holding a chunk of NTI and CVRR. Will add more CVRR at under 19, more NTI at 24.50 or less and more ALDW at 20 or lower. This refiners are cooking right now and likely for several more quarters. Should have added that I acquired the ALDW in the 13s.
    Aug 11, 2015. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Dakota oil well completions slow to a crawl [View news story]
    Pot Roast while I was getting chewed up by lower oil prices collapsing my energy stocks I decided to move to the refinery side and have done really well there. I own ALDW, NTI and CVRR. Great distributions and decent performance. I use the distributions to broaden my overall energy portfolio to the better MLPs for the eventual down the road oil bounce back. Its nice getting LGCY, MEMP, VNR, etc for these current prices and I really have no doubt that the bounce back is forming up now. Just looking at the drop in offshore development (roughly 40% of world production). Just dropping a few major oofshore projects overwhelms US onshore production numbers. Once we begin to see the whole worldwide production over the next few months people will see that those cutbacks in production are happening along with reductions in Nigeria, Venezuela, even in Mexico. I think most will be surprised with how production reins in overall due to the $200 billion in capex reductions. The Sauds may have inadvertently opened the door to their own demise by trying to be too destructive in this pricing cycle. It has forced E&Ps to focus nearly all their resources on the best low cost prospects and to look away from long term reserves building. That always has a price consequence.
    Jul 30, 2015. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Dakota oil well completions slow to a crawl [View news story]
    Lifting the ban is an obvious step to take but then I personally feel that so is approving the Keystone Pipeline. This Administration is unlikely to do anything that appears to approve of or encourage petroleum and natural gas usage. It may take a new Admin to remove the ban. I think it can be done with a Presidential Directive and not by an act of Congress passed into law but I am not sure if that is correct. Probably we don't see that happen until the next Admin. Jan. 2017 day 2.
    Jul 30, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alon USA Partners Sees A Huge Dip In Its Share Price [View article]
    ALDW is up $1.20 as of 1:15 EDT. I also didn't find any particular reason for the selloff other than some block trades on a moderate volume. The crack spread remains quite strong and will lead to top drawer distributions for the refinery mlps. I am long ALDW, NTI and CVRR. They make a nice counter balance to my otherwise dismal energy portfolio performance this year.
    Jul 29, 2015. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Dakota oil well completions slow to a crawl [View news story]
    Hart Energy reports that new well permits are down 35% year to date.
    Fewer permits means fewer wells in the future. Eventually people will see that the remedy to low priced oil is in fact low priced oil. It will eventually begin to rebound as US and world production begins to decline noticeably.

    http://tinyurl.com/q7y...
    Jul 29, 2015. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Dakota oil well completions slow to a crawl [View news story]
    Even with increased average proppant usage per well overall proppant usage is down overall and trending down. That along with well completions trending down, drill rig usage trending down and little financial incentive at these WTI prices for US drillers to produce oil. World wide much of the $200 billion in capex deferrals/cancellations has been offshore (offshore accounts for about 40% of world oil production). Also, most other countries have even higher net production costs than US and Canadian companies so cutbacks in Nigeria, Venezuela, Norway, etc will start to show in world production numbers soon. Demand would not be expected to drop precipitously without a serious recession and supply cannot be solely met by OPEC. So with most world oil production requiring $50+ per bbl we will begin to see a drop in supply that will boost prices. No one can say how soon but I believe that all the pieces are in place for some rebound to begin and I surely feel that the Saudis cannot hold OPEC together for long at these low prices.
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: Time To Go Bottom Fishing For BDCs? [View article]
    I did a little seining yesterday and netted FSC at 6.17. Interestingly, I put the order in mid-day and it didn't confirm as traded until 9:46 last night.
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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