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dpilling

dpilling
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  • A Tale Of Two PIIGS: Keynesians Should Take Notice [View article]
    Seriously. Causation and correlation are two different matters. What about the fact that the Greeks can't collect their taxes and because they do not issue the currency in which their debts are denominated, cannot pay them back.
    Aug 27, 2011. 12:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiting for the QE2 Shoe to Drop [View article]
    You are a little late to the party on this one Calafia, particularly given that you have been spouting off about how commodity price increases equal inflation.

    PragCap is one of the few who has had this issue nailed from the start: pragcap.com/mechanics-...
    Feb 26, 2011. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has the Housing Correction Run Its Course? [View article]
    Remember this post you did in July 2010?

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    So much for that trend-line you drew and your notion of a "gradual increase" in housing starts. Even your "pessimistic" projections have turned out to be wildly optimistic.
    Feb 17, 2011. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • January Existing Home Sales Outlook: Terrible, Based on December Pending Home Sales [View article]
    And prices have been down in each of those four months. In any event it turns out that NARs numbers are bogus according to Calculated Risk and Tom Lawler:

    www.calculatedriskblog...
    Jan 29, 2011. 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing: Buyer's Market to Continue for Now [View article]
    For those lucky 25 percent of homeowners who live in a zip that is not declining, all they have to worry about is broad economic consequences of declining wealth for the other 75 percent. For the 75 percent suffering the decline, it's a double whammy. The fact that house prices are not declining everywhere is no savior.
    Jan 17, 2011. 02:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Producer Price Inflation Threatens to Accelerate [View article]
    How can you have a conversation about PPI without mentioning the dramatic increase in emerging market demand for commodities? Most of the PPI inflation were seeing can be attributed to increasing commodities prices; after all we know it is not the labor component of inputs driving this.

    Commodities prices are driven by global supply/demand, not by the Fed. So to lay this at the feet of the Fed misses the fact that we're in a global market where the United States is no longer the sole determinant of the demand side of the equation.

    Get off your political soapbox and get up to speed on the facts.
    Jan 13, 2011. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Latest Housing Figures Show No Relief [View article]
    For those who have been squawking that the Case Shiller 20 doesn't track a representative list of markets, the fact that 70% of Clear Capital's top 50 markets are down year over year is a bitter dose of reality.
    Jan 6, 2011. 07:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing: A Drag on the Economy in 2011 (Part 1) [View article]
    The only structures being built in Detroit right now are barns; on the inner-city farms they have created by tearing down dilapidated houses.
    Jan 3, 2011. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will 2011 be the year of the option ARM default crisis? Not likely, according to Calculated Risk. He's more concerned with falling home prices and negative equity.  [View news story]
    You realize of course that the data series referenced in the article includes refinancing appraisals, whereas Case Shiller includes only purchase transactions. In addition, the HPI covers only conventional mortgage purchases, thereby ignoring cash purchases and jumbos, etc. Whereas Case Shiller captures all of these transactions. Hard to draw the conclusion the author makes that the differences are attributable only to different geographic coverage. Lots more going on here than just that.
    Jan 1, 2011. 10:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Is My #1 Theme as Home Prices Resume Their Decline [View article]
    When you don't like the result, attack the metric. Well OK then, lets throw out Case Shiller. What do the other national real estate price/value trackers say?

    CoreLogic? Down
    ClearCapital? Down
    RadarLogic? Down
    Altos Research? Down
    Zillow? Down

    I could go on, but you get the point. Should we throw these out too? Or are you just unhappy with the fact the home prices are dropping and railing at any data that proves that fact?

    And by the way, two of your poster-children cities, Cincinnati and Philly are down 5.2% and 3.51% YoY, respectively, according to CoreLogic. But why should we let the facts get in the way of opinion...
    Dec 29, 2010. 04:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Case-Shiller Shows House Prices Are Double-Dipping [View article]
    E,

    I usually enjoy your comments; they are typically thoughtful. This one is just narrow minded though. If we lived in a world with no interdependency, then fine, who cares what is going on in Phoenix and Vegas. Unfortunately, as more homeowners dip into negative equity, they pull back on spending and are more likely to default. You no doubt know where the train of logic goes next...

    So, it does matter what happens in Vegas and Phoenix and it the other 16 MSAs that showed accelerating price declines in Oct. It may not directly affect the value of your home, but it will affect the economy.
    Dec 28, 2010. 06:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Case-Shiller Shows House Prices Are Double-Dipping [View article]
    bbro, i don't recall anyone complaining about Vegas and Phoenix being in the index when home prices were running up and people like you were making the case they could never fall.

    Oh and by the way, Philly is down 3.51% year over year according to CoreLogic. While we're at it, St. Louis, which you complained was excluded from the index last month, is down 7.5% year. Houston up 3.5%; woo hoo!

    CoreLogic which tracks many more MSAs than Shiller also shows broad based and accelerating declines across the country. Replacing Vegas and Phoenix with Houston and Philly will not change that basic fact.
    Dec 28, 2010. 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Case-Shiller Shows House Prices Are Double-Dipping [View article]
    bbro,

    Every single market in the Case Shiller 20 was down in Oct over Sept. and 19 of 20 were down in Sept. over Aug... and you are cherry picking Houston and Philly because Phoenix and Las Vegas just aren't good enough for you. Please...

    This drop is wide-spread, now four months long and impacting markets like Seattle, Portland, Denver, Dallas and others that held up well in the first downdraft.
    Dec 28, 2010. 11:40 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Used Car Prices Continue to Rise [View article]
    Manheim is a wholesale price index. What makes you think increased wholesale price increases are being passed along to consumers?

    Also, wholesale used car prices have very little to do with new car prices and therefore little to do with new car supply/demand characteristics. Yes, they are substitutes. But they also have dramatically different market structures given differences in how used/new cars can be financed.
    Dec 11, 2010. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Prices Double-Dipping at Zillow [View article]
    Zillow's Zestimates are not terribly accurate on an individual home level. In my neighborhood, homes are consistently trading at below Zestimate, for example.

    But that is beside the point. The market-level trend is what matters; and the trend in Zillow's market-level data is clearly down. On that mark, Zillow's number closely reflect what others are showing; broad-based and accelerating decent in home prices.

    Clear Capital has the most recent data (through Nov.); you can find it here: www.clearcapital.com/c...
    Dec 10, 2010. 11:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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