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Pay Attention to Oil Decline Rates

Great article, Jim. I agree with you that getting accurate information as to actual rates of decline is somewhat difficult, but the main point that I think many people know, but ignore, is that all fields decline. Duh! Right? What is so problematic is not just replacing that production lost to decline, but adding enough more production to accomodate additional demand. 87mm bbls a day say losing 5% is 4.35 mm bbls lost each year. If we need an additional 1.5 mm bbls for increased demand, we need to find just short of 6 mm bbls per year. Very simple math. Regrettably, those who would deny drilling rights for the OCS, ANWAR, and other areas, just plain do not "get it". Actually, they probably do "get it", but need to get re-elected this fall...