timshea

timshea
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Trade Ideas For This U.S. Dollar Bull Market - Idea 1: Emerging Market Debt Meltdown  [View article]
    Found this very informative. Appreciate how you look at both sides (opportunity and risks). Looking at the Asia markets this am. Your hypothesis seems to be playing out.
    Aug 24, 2015. 02:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Think QQQ Is A 'Sell'  [View article]
    Your analysis sure looks good today. Thanks.
    Aug 21, 2015. 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Buy Ahead Of Earnings  [View article]
    @Gayle

    $FB doesn't do business in China. Facebook doesn't rely on commodities. If a meteor threatens earth, people will talk about it on Facebook.
    Jul 28, 2015. 06:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospects For Facebook's Payments Business  [View article]
    BJ makes the same arguments in every comment, it seems.
    Jul 14, 2015. 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospects For Facebook's Payments Business  [View article]
    Um, have you ever used square cash? Very convenient. No reason FB can't do the same. You only focus on worst boundary cases. Surinam??

    Odd how in an article on payments, you conjure every unrelated criticism you can. (Which you seem to repeat in every comment.) Why, I wonder?
    Jul 14, 2015. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospects For Facebook's Payments Business  [View article]
    Western Union??? Horrible customer experience. (Really?) Your $FB comments remind me of Michael Blair's during $AAPL's amazing run. So certain, yet so wrong.
    Jul 14, 2015. 01:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box: Predictably Smashing The Long-Term Investment Angle  [View article]
    BOX up 7% today as a result.
    Jul 14, 2015. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box: Predictably Smashing The Long-Term Investment Angle  [View article]
    Aaron Levie, BOX CEO, interviewed on Mad Money. http://cnb.cx/1Tz0XtP
    Jul 14, 2015. 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box: Predictably Smashing The Long-Term Investment Angle  [View article]
    I used Box recently in an agency environment. Not my choice. On several projects, some collaborations were internal, some across companies.

    The Box user interface is great. The features seem few, but they feel like the right ones. They are well-thought out. During the time I worked with Box, I literally never heard anyone complain about it. No one needed training. People just took to it. I've been working on group software projects since the late 1980s, and run across a fair number of tools. I found Box far more pleasant to use than, say, SharePoint.

    Not an expert in this market. But I suspect ease of use is the real "alpha" in this name. INVESTORS don't tend to think about ease of use as much as other metrics. But end users think about it a lot. And IT does. These days, most investors understand that ease of use was/is a competitive advantage for $AAPL. Drives loyalty, margins. But now that most investors know this, it isn't alpha. Alpha is something few know.

    A case for Box's alpha (since that's what we're seeking here), might be: Box's ease of use will grow Box's market share faster than analysts think. The more people use Box, the more it will attract (Metcalfe's Law, i.e. "network effects"). Box is platform agnostic. IT likes it. A tipping point occurs. Box becomes the preferred cloud collaboration tool. Box exceeds analyst's expectations.

    So ease of use could be Box's alpha. An article making similar points: http://bit.ly/1NUJTeH

    @Crispus9, using Box in single user mode makes little sense (to me). That's not what it's for, really. It's really more of a shared file space where you and other team members post stuff, upload new versions, comment on stuff, share with other groups within and outside your company. For what it's worth.
    Jul 9, 2015. 01:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook takes out March highs amid Instagram/mobile ad news  [View news story]
    It only opens if you open it.
    Jun 23, 2015. 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Author Tags A Rising Tide For Content, Content Marketing, Growthhacking Players  [View article]
    @mike904, what product are you advertising?
    Jun 23, 2015. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Will Encouraging Initial iPhone 6 Sales Last?  [View article]
    Reasonable points (thank you). But isn't this a bit like taking the best house on the block ($AAPL), and pointing out the fraying carpet, while the other houses are in flames?

    Investments can only be evaluated in relation to alternatives.

    (a) Do I invest in the phone/tablet/pc sector, or not?

    (b) If I do, what company the best risk/reward ratio? Is there a better alternative than $AAPL?

    That would be useful information, for me.
    Oct 7, 2014. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Fiscal 2015 Looks Solid, But What About After That?  [View article]
    Market share gets debated a lot on SA. In this industry owning a constant, profitable slice of a growing pie is better than owning a large, unprofitable slice.

    This article sucks the drama out of "Market Share" argument:

    **
    "Three graphs to stop smartphone fans fretting about 'market share'": http://bit.ly/1lkfgQF (The Guardian, Jan 2014)
    **

    Scroll down to the last chart. It shows installed base, over time.

    Two points:

    1. Android and iOS "installed base" lines rise roughly in parallel. Which line is more profitable (best phone margins)?

    2. After a phone is sold, the iOS "installed base" line generates more ongoing revenue per user to Apple than Android. (iTunes, App Store, Payments, etc.).

    Android users spend 4x less on app purchases vs. iOS users. More ARPU to Apple, and more money to iOS developers. Apple paid about 10B USD to iOS app developers in the last 12 months. (Sources: http://bit.ly/1nbV4qu , http://nyti.ms/1EpxLyM .)
    Oct 7, 2014. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably  [View article]
    "My bet is that Samsung will do very well." - Michael Blair, Oct 5

    "Samsung Electronics Third-Quarter Profit Plunges - Weak Smartphone Sales Dent Earnings" - WSJ, Oct 7
    Oct 7, 2014. 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Fiscal 2015 Looks Solid, But What About After That?  [View article]
    Time debugging a technology problem can exceed the cost savings of a cheaper device. Most customers are smart enough to understand this after a phone or two. Apple isn't perfect. Just the least bad (my opinion).

    Another ingredient in Apple's secret sauce is the Apple Store. You can get something fixed while hanging out among all the shiny new products. In 2013, Apple grossed the most per sq. ft. ($4,650) of any US retailer. Tiffany & Co was in 2nd place at $2,990/sq. ft. Combining support and sales in those stores, like an auto dealer, seems smart to me.
    Oct 6, 2014. 08:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
58 Comments
80 Likes