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timshea

timshea
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  • Apple: Will Encouraging Initial iPhone 6 Sales Last? [View article]
    Reasonable points (thank you). But isn't this a bit like taking the best house on the block ($AAPL), and pointing out the fraying carpet, while the other houses are in flames?

    Investments can only be evaluated in relation to alternatives.

    (a) Do I invest in the phone/tablet/pc sector, or not?

    (b) If I do, what company the best risk/reward ratio? Is there a better alternative than $AAPL?

    That would be useful information, for me.
    Oct 7, 2014. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Fiscal 2015 Looks Solid, But What About After That? [View article]
    Market share gets debated a lot on SA. In this industry owning a constant, profitable slice of a growing pie is better than owning a large, unprofitable slice.

    This article sucks the drama out of "Market Share" argument:

    **
    "Three graphs to stop smartphone fans fretting about 'market share'": http://bit.ly/1lkfgQF (The Guardian, Jan 2014)
    **

    Scroll down to the last chart. It shows installed base, over time.

    Two points:

    1. Android and iOS "installed base" lines rise roughly in parallel. Which line is more profitable (best phone margins)?

    2. After a phone is sold, the iOS "installed base" line generates more ongoing revenue per user to Apple than Android. (iTunes, App Store, Payments, etc.).

    Android users spend 4x less on app purchases vs. iOS users. More ARPU to Apple, and more money to iOS developers. Apple paid about 10B USD to iOS app developers in the last 12 months. (Sources: http://bit.ly/1nbV4qu , http://nyti.ms/1EpxLyM .)
    Oct 7, 2014. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably [View article]
    "My bet is that Samsung will do very well." - Michael Blair, Oct 5

    "Samsung Electronics Third-Quarter Profit Plunges - Weak Smartphone Sales Dent Earnings" - WSJ, Oct 7
    Oct 7, 2014. 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Fiscal 2015 Looks Solid, But What About After That? [View article]
    Time debugging a technology problem can exceed the cost savings of a cheaper device. Most customers are smart enough to understand this after a phone or two. Apple isn't perfect. Just the least bad (my opinion).

    Another ingredient in Apple's secret sauce is the Apple Store. You can get something fixed while hanging out among all the shiny new products. In 2013, Apple grossed the most per sq. ft. ($4,650) of any US retailer. Tiffany & Co was in 2nd place at $2,990/sq. ft. Combining support and sales in those stores, like an auto dealer, seems smart to me.
    Oct 6, 2014. 08:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Fiscal 2015 Looks Solid, But What About After That? [View article]
    Fair and balanced article. Thank you.

    "...as we look longer-term, the new issue is [...] what is it going to take to move the needle in terms of new products, but also maintaining that "high-end" luxury margin, and not being commoditized?"

    One protection against being commoditized is stuff that differentiates: Does more with less effort. Better physical quality. Good support. Cachet. Most know this, and most would agree Apple has proven better at this than most.

    Maybe the tide of falling margins makes the entire sector a poor investment. If so, avoid the sector. Otherwise, who is likely to resist margin erosion better than $AAPL? Investments only make sense in relation to the alternatives.

    Reminds me of the Japanese proverb "the stake that sticks up gets hammered down". Perhaps Apple's margin is worried over so much because it's the only one that's kept enough margin to discuss.
    Oct 6, 2014. 07:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone 6 Selling Poorly On China's Gray Market: Are Xiaomi, Lenovo Hurting Apple? [View article]
    Bzzzt. Makes no logical sense. Specifically:

    If QE affects the market as a whole, then it might affect any stock. Singling out $AAPL is illogical. In fact, one could make a better argument in reverse:

    1. Apple shows a beta of 0.9. MSFT 1.0, GOOGL, 1.2, HPQ 1.5, (etc.). Meaning AAPL should move LESS than the market as a whole, and less than these other stocks.

    2. $AAPL also has a low P:E (not as far to fall).

    3. AAPL has a lower correlation with the S&P 500 than most other constituents (above). It marches to its own drummer.

    These points undermine your argument. Also, do you claim that stocks of different market caps will respond to QE differently? Please enlighten us on that.

    It would have been fairer to say "With QE, I don't think this is a good time to invest in U.S. equities general." Cool, your opinion, and you may be right. But that's hardly an argument specific to $AAPL.
    Oct 6, 2014. 04:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably [View article]
    "Samsung Poised for ‘Ugly’ Quarter as iPhones Get Bigger" (Bloomberg): http://bloom.bg/1oJdw5g

    "Analysts have been cutting their profit estimates almost daily, with at least 26 of 42 tracked by Bloomberg reducing their estimates in the past four weeks. Operating profit for the third quarter is projected to plunge 47 percent, while sales are projected to fall 15 percent, according to the average analyst estimates. Both are the steepest declines since at least 2009 with Samsung to announce results tomorrow."
    Oct 6, 2014. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone 6 Selling Poorly On China's Gray Market: Are Xiaomi, Lenovo Hurting Apple? [View article]
    "I would be reticent to buy in at these levels with the iPhone 6 euphoria built in and quantitative easing coming to an end."

    So you're saying quantitative easing somehow affects $APPL disproportionately, as compared to other stocks? Wow. Please explain.
    Oct 6, 2014. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone 6 Selling Poorly On China's Gray Market: Are Xiaomi, Lenovo Hurting Apple? [View article]
    @techy46, So you're saying Apple can't exist in an industry ruled by Moore's Law? It's been known, and driving this industry, since 1965. Apple is still here.

    You say: "The smart unit of computing (SUC) will be a smart phone form with Intel's 10nm i3-i5 Inside that connects to wireless keyboard, mouse and screens." Could be great. Or could be a usability nightmare, if you're an average consumer who has to make all the pieces work. And why can't Apple do the same? Wireless keyboard and mouse? Not exactly new technology.

    You say: "Android and Microsoft have an advantage since they have open ecosystems that Asian manufacturers will patronize." This has been true for years. So why did $AAPL market cap eclipse $MSFT long ago?

    As far as "open systems", I can run Windows on a Mac (I'm typing this on Windows 7, running on a Mac). Can't do the reverse. The Mac hardware is solid and the OS never crashes. My last Dell Windows laptop is sitting in a bin, my last Sony laptop is relegated to a music file server. Just "upgraded" my girlfriend from her Windows 7 laptop to a new Windows 8 machine. So far the verdict is not good. Microsoft really blew it with 8. No one (who has a choice) wants it. Not against MS (prefer Windows for many things), more that their PC/Mobile/Tablet strategy, as embodied in Win 8, leaves much to be desired. I can't walk into a Microsoft Store with questions. Maybe they'll get it right. Hope so.

    Open systems are great, but usability can be harder to achieve when no manufacturer takes responsibility for the whole solution. This is the place where Apple (usually) wins. Example: Conversion rates for Tango (video conferencing app) are about 400% higher on iOS vs. Android. (Source: http://nyti.ms/1tscjAL ). Hardware and OS are capable in both cases. Yet Apple took the time to develop Apple ID, and make it a more seamless process.

    Assuming reasonable hardware, usability makes the difference. Apple will continue to win on ease of use, because they control it, Android will continue to gain market share on cheap phones that offer good performance for the price. But market share doesn't tell the whole story, since the industry is growing so fast, and one can grab share at the low end with cheap products that have tiny profit margins. "Profit share" is a more useful metric for the investor.
    Oct 6, 2014. 02:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill And Chuck's Incredible Journey - Apple's Blowout Launch Weekend Revisited [View article]
    Please don't confuse us with the flacks.
    Oct 6, 2014. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably [View article]
    @Rookie, agree with your sentiments, however Mr. Blair has been beating the same drum on $AAPL throughout its recent run. His articles sound well-informed, but his track record is abysmal. There is a nice spreadsheet documenting this in a recent thread. Bottom line, anyone listening to Mr. Blair's advice on $AAPL or $BBRY over the last year or two would be hurting very badly.

    No one knows where $AAPL will go from here. Every investment has potential risks and rewards. However Mr. Blair presents only the risks for stocks he's short (like $AAPL), while cheerleading those he's long ($BBRY). Along the way he cherry picks only those factoids which support his thesis. More propaganda than alpha.

    Will he be right in the future? Perhaps. Nothing goes up in a straight line, and even a broken clock is right twice a day. However, go look at his past articles and compare Mr. Blair's advice $AAPL and $BBRY to their subsequent performance. Not pretty.
    Oct 6, 2014. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably [View article]
    Actual performance benchmarks: http://bit.ly/1rowMKW

    Even the iPhone 5S beats the Galaxy S5 in these tests. The iPhone 6 beats by a wide margin. Facts you won't find in a Michael Blair article.
    Oct 6, 2014. 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably [View article]
    "Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably"

    Alternate title: "Does Moore's Law Still Exist? Probably"

    It's a pretty safe bet that the next generation of phone will show better hardware performance than the previous. (Moore's Law: http://bit.ly/zyECwH).
    Oct 6, 2014. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Samsung S6 Overtake The iPhone 6? Probably [View article]
    Seems Mr. Blair cherry picks to support his short thesis on $AAPL, as he did when long $BBRY.

    Mr. Blair cites a phonearena.com poll, an article which compares the two phones, allowing readers vote at three places along the way. (Link below.)

    Yet Mr. Blair omit numbers from the same site which do not support his thesis. Example: In "Compare Phones", the Galaxy S5 gets a "User Rating" of 9.1 vs. iPhone 6 "User Rating" of 9.5. Not mentioned by Mr. Blair.

    Example: Within "User Ratings", the iPhone 6 wins 8 of 11 categories, including user reported call quality, UI speed, Internet, multimedia, build quality, reception, text input, everyday usage, and display. All omitted from Mr. Blair's article. Perhaps because it does not support his thesis.

    I don't know what $AAPL will do, nor the market. No one does. I do know that Mr. Blair has been consistently wrong in his advice to us on $AAPL and $BBRY. Please be careful with your $. I do learn a lot from the comments.

    Poll (cited by Mr. Blair): http://bit.ly/1usQc1m

    Head to head comparison: http://bit.ly/1usQdSZ
    Oct 6, 2014. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill And Chuck's Incredible Journey - Apple's Blowout Launch Weekend Revisited [View article]
    Here is a history of Mr. Blair's advice on $AAPL: http://bit.ly/1sHDP01
    Oct 1, 2014. 10:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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