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  • Update: Apple Forbids HealthKit Data From iCloud, Key Takeaway For Investors [View article]
    if the health data is on your phone--and if it isn't there or in the cloud, how can it help you--and your phone backup is in the cloud, then how does this announcement matter? Black hats can steal your phone image using EPPB or other tool and get the data that way. (See e.g.,
    Sep 3, 2014. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Is About To Change The Market Forever [View article]
    The Class C's are a dilution vehicle, which I think will lead them to trade at a discount, but maybe only of a few percent. It will be interesting to watch which class and in what fraction any future buybacks are directed towards.
    Mar 31, 2014. 06:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Ackman's Herbalife Pyramid Claim [View article]
    An interesting presentation, thanks. From my perspective, the question of whether it is technically a pyramid scheme in either sense is interesting, but less important. The question is, is it close enough to a pyramid, and near enough to its saturation point, as to be a good short?
    Dec 24, 2012. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Mathematical Model Of Shale Gas Well Production Decline [View instapost]
    can you publish the fit of your formula to individual well production and what range of betas that gives? I'm concerned that fitting aggregate production over the time period given is leaving you insensitive to the long time part of the formula, since the well count is also apparently growing almost exponentially. Fitting 100 individual wells over 10-15 years would be less vulnerable to this. (On the other hand that would discount any learning that has taken place over that time to increase yield on recent wells, but it would be a valuable alternate viewpoint.)
    thanks for the article.
    May 19, 2012. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Robert Samuelson's Lessons From Jamie Dimon's Bad Bet [View article]
    Wrong lessons, indeed. The crisis did not originate on "traditional mortgage loans", as Samuelson claims. Subprime defaults (not exactly traditional mortgages) may have been the spark, but Wall Street piled up the mountain of gasoline soaked rags in the form of CDO's, synthetic CDO's and CDS's on top of the whole thing to the tune of $10T to $1T of actual mortgages, not all of which defaulted anyway. Who gets the blame here? If that's traditional bank mortgage lending, my father wouldn't recognize it.
    May 16, 2012. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Dumb Rules Can Mitigate Model Risk [View article]
    The incentives are completely aligned with this kind of thing happening again and again. From the trader's perspective if this had worked (or if the model had been right and it had worked) his bank would make billions, he'd take home a hefty bonus. If it goes badly wrong, hey, it's only a job. It's not like you can send a trader to jail for being wrong. What you *can* do is send an officer of a deposit-taking bank to jail for accounting control fraud. Now, as long as the trades are going well, how much do you think the officers really want to know? Glass-Steagall was a really dumb rule that worked really well for 66 years.
    May 12, 2012. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Freakin' Kidding Friday: Still No Deal? [View article]
    "I think they should make politicians wear the patches of all their sponsors on their jackets - like race-car drivers, that way we'd know who we are really talking to."

    Now, THAT'S a Constitutional Amendment I could get behind.
    Jul 30, 2011. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the iPad Will Flop [View article]
    "If I turn out to be wrong, I’ll gladly eat my words, but I’m pretty sure that I’m not wrong."

    I'm interested in how you think about the iPad now?
    Oct 24, 2010. 09:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can't Fix iPhone Reception, Will Start Telling Truth About Signal Strength [View article]
    For some explanation and quantitative measurements of the effect, It appears the reception is not worse than previous iPhones and in many cases better. Apple certainly hasn't handled the issue well though.
    Jul 3, 2010. 10:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ways to Play Changes in Energy Efficient Lighting Market [View article]
    Count me skeptical of economic arguments based on 50,000 hr lifetimes. Bulbs are are located in vulnerable fixtures and get broken at some rate. Lots of things can happen over a payback time that long. At 2 hrs a day average use that's 68 years. I think the CFL experience probably shows what most people will pay for a light bulb, no matter what the claimed lifetime.
    May 30, 2010. 02:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment