Seeking Alpha

blunderbuss

blunderbuss
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View blunderbuss' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Tesla: Is Short Interest The Best Contrarian Indicator Of All Time? [View article]
    As long as QE is a factor, and the fundamentals don't seem to matter, then this extremely dubious company, and many other bubble stocks like it, are going to rise on the strength of stock buybacks and short squeezes resulting from stock buybacks.

    Zero Hedge has touched on this a few times:

    "Most Shorted" Stocks Out-Perform "The Market" Five-Fold Today
    http://tinyurl.com/kcn...

    Presenting The Best Trading Strategy Over The Past Year: Why Buying The Most Hated Names Continues To Generate "Alpha"
    http://tinyurl.com/n4u...

    The Squeeze Continues... "Most Shorted" Stocks Are Screaming Higher
    http://tinyurl.com/muv...

    I could go on, but to assume that TSLA is rising solely because Iron Man fans think Elon is cool is to ignore some "new fundamentals" in the Bernanke-Yellen helicopter drop.
    Sep 11 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Nightmarish Contemplating A 9/11 Anniversary With ISIS [View article]
    Is anyone expecting some sort of attack, a la Benghazi, by terrorists to remind us of 9/11 all over again?
    Sep 11 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday - The Absolute Definition Of A Bubble [View article]
    Here's another reason why the share prices of these bubbles might continue going up -- Charles Hugh-Smith asks whether CEOs are borrowing money (ZIRP financing, remember) to facilitate share buybacks --
    >>>>
    Where is the data proving Corporate America isn't borrowing billions of dollars and using the nearly-free money to buy back shares? Buying back shares reduces the float (stocks available for purchase by the public), reducing supply and creating demand which pushes prices higher....

    When executives and others at the top of the corporate pyramid have such an enormous incentive (stock options worth tens of millions of dollars) if they can push the stock price higher with buy-backs paid with borrowed money and accounting gimmicks that inflate headline earnings, then why wouldn't they do precisely that?...

    As for dodgy accounting: when the dodgy accounting has been institutionalized, it's no longer viewed as dodgy. Which brings us to the money shot of the comment: “Executive compensation based on stock performance” is killing corporate America....
    >>>>

    SOURCE --
    "Of Two Minds" 01 September 2014 http://tinyurl.com/kvv...
    Sep 3 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is Short Interest The Best Contrarian Indicator Of All Time? [View article]
    Before we become convinced that the POTUS will let Tesla sink on his watch like a giant EV Titanic, consider this:

    ...[Drexel Burnham Lambert bond trader Michael] Milken often spoke to students at business schools. On these occasions he liked, for dramatic effect, to demonstrate how hard it actually is to put a large company into bankruptcy. The forces interested in keeping a large company afloat, he argued, are far greater than those that wish to see it perish. He'd present the students with the following hypothetical situation. First, he'd say, let's locate our major factory in an earthquake zone. Then let's infuriate our unions by paying the executives large sums of money while cutting wages. Third, let's select a company on the the brink of bankruptcy to supply us with an essential irreplaceable component in our production line. And fourth, just in case our government is tempted to bail us out when we get into trouble, let's bribe a few indiscreet foreign officials. That, Milken would conclude, is precisely what Lockheed had done in the late 1970s. Milken had purchased Lockheed bonds when the company looked to be heading for liquidation and had made a small fortune when it was saved in spite of itself, just as [one of Lewis' co-workers] had bought Farm Credit bonds when all seemed lost but wasn't....

    -- Michael Lewis, "Liar's Poker," Chapter 10.

    Tesla is in the same position that Lockheed was. If the Dems let Tesla just fail, it will look as if their flagship company has no mojo. I think even Republicans will be loathe to pull the plug on it, even though it had a Free Cash Flow of -$177MM in the last quarter.

    So it may be until after 2016, and a new administration, that Tesla will fulfill my (clearly) prejudiced fantasies of becoming a Big Short.

    ALSO... Charles Hugh Smith wrote about the facade that even established companies are putting up to convince the world of their profitability:
    http://tinyurl.com/kvv...
    Sep 3 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Deliveries Guidance Implications [View article]
    <<So long as TslaM spends $0 on mass advertising...>>

    Tesla gets more free air time on Bloomberg TV than any other company save for Apple or Facebook. They have lots of "green friends" in the media who feel the need to get behind it and give it lots of coverage. Thus, Tesla may actually spend $0 on advertising, and STILL have no demand.
    Aug 3 08:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Deliveries Guidance Implications [View article]
    23 likes = 23 soon-to-be-unemployed TESLA geniuses...
    Aug 3 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Update: Gigafactory Being Built, Profits Being Minted [View article]
    It's too bad there's no non-GAAP chart for Free Cash Flow, otherwise, Elon Musk and his gang of believers would've printed it.

    Link: http://tinyurl.com/mu8...

    Full article (ZH): http://tinyurl.com/py5...

    Is there a stealth bailout going on behind the scenes here? After all, we know the extent to which the US Gov't kept Lockheed afloat in the late 1970s... Maybe Obama just doesn't want (NASDAQ:TSLA) to sink until after he's left office....
    Aug 3 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Crushing Battery Supply Constraints [View article]
    Those of you who like to trash Mr. Petersen's comments ought to go through his articles and read exactly *why* he believes that particular stock is worth putting his money into -- which he did. (His disclaimer says so.)

    And those of us who read Zero Hedge know that during the Tesla short squeeze, institutional investors (not unlike Morgan Stanley) gleefully unloaded their shares onto retail investors, and are no doubt "predicting"/declaring a $312 future share price because they failed to unload all their Tesla shares last spring. (Why people aren't suspicious of Morgan Stanley's "expertise," or their motives, I have no idea.)

    /Axion Power is currently at $0.20, but has the support of major car manufacturers like BMW. The cars/trucks/city buses that will benefit from micro-hybrid technology are already on the road. Have we all forgotten the "buy low, sell high" part of buying stock?
    Mar 10 01:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Tesla's Giga-Scale Battery Challenges [View article]
    >>>
    The proper thing to do is call the dog ugly and the children stupid.
    >>>
    Before we dismiss (OTCQB:AXPW) as a loser with no hope... consider this:

    This is a link to the share price chart for (AAPL), courtesy of Google finance. Between 2001 and 2003, the proper thing to do would have been to call the dog ugly and the children stupid.
    http://tinyurl.com/k9u...

    It is obvious that Steve Jobs developed a rational strategy to keep Apple afloat. Here is JP's summary of why AAPL has risen from the ashes:
    http://tinyurl.com/nod...

    AXPW has support from the likes of BMW, who want to develop a partnership with it for its micro-hybrid technology. Yes, the share price is low; I have the Seeking Alpha tech app, so I can check its price every day. There is nowhere to go but up for Axion.

    Elon Musk, on the other hand, admits that he will need someone to (pretty please) build him a "gigantic" factory to build more batteries (if his hoped-for consumer demand becomes a reality). Without that giga-factory, he won't be able to manufacture the most important component of his car's propulsion system. This may present an insurmountable problem.
    Dec 2 07:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Tesla's Giga-Scale Battery Challenges [View article]
    >>>
    So for millions, is an amazing car!!!....
    >>>

    Are you implying that millions of people are going to own Tesla products in the future (near or distant)? Is that supposed to fool people into thinking this car is a permanent fixture to the automotive landscape?

    There are currently between 18,000 and 19,000 Model S vehicles on the road.

    It's not our fault that Musk paid you and other Tesla employees in shares, but don't expect us to be "the bigger fool" and take them off your hands. I suggest you sell them off soon before the next battery fire brings your share value down to earth.
    Dec 2 07:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dissecting Tesla's ZEV Mythology [View article]
    In that case, God help us all:

    Jury indicts former Calpers CEO for fraud scheme
    http://reut.rs/1cDrf85

    >>>
    Former Calpers CEO Federico Buenrostro was indicted by a San Francisco grand jury, as was Alfred Villalobos, a former member of the pension fund's board. They were charged in connection with the scheme involving fraudulent documents related to a $3 billion investment by the retirement system in funds managed by Apollo Global Management.
    >>>
    Nov 18 05:48 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Long-Range BEVs Are An Economic, Energy And Emissions Abomination [View article]
    Not that it matters,
    but my first flip-phone looked suspiciously like a
    Star Trek communicator from The Original Series.
    And Google Glass is no doubt someone's attempt to
    make us all dress up like Commander LaForge (actor
    LeVar Burton):
    http://imdb.to/HOxRa9

    Star Trek is ALWAYS ahead of the curve... ;D
    Nov 14 09:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Painful Journey Into The Valley Of Death [View article]
    >>>
    You may choose differently, but the drivers in the crashed Tesla's seem to agree with me as they have all requested a replacement Model S and seem to think that the car afforded them superb protection. In the last fire the driver even stated that the car probably saved his life.
    >>>

    Forgive me for not believing the fluff that Rocket Man Musk puts in his press releases. I almost LOLed when the Tesla press release "quoted" the first survivor as saying he "couldn't wait" to get his hands on his replacement Model S. That's almost as funny as Vico Cofino's story on this board.

    The third driver "stated" that the car saved his life ... by bursting into flames?! That's good news for the old Ford Pinto.
    Nov 10 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Painful Journey Into The Valley Of Death [View article]
    (Apologies for the late reply.)

    Firstly, I have no real qualms with people pointing out the "fire risk" in ICEs; if it takes a recall to correct a possible fire risk, then who am I to complain? I have no great love of Chrysler...

    Secondly, as this SA contributor has just pointed out --
    http://tinyurl.com/q5h...
    -- we're talking about 21,000 Model S cars on the road, and two of them caught fire after running over debris in the road in a span of five weeks. I don't have time to calculate how many of those other brands have functioning vehicles on the road, so I don't know how many actual fires they had.

    You wrote (in a later missive):
    >>>
    Yawn. Wake me when there is a Model S fire that wasn't the result of an accident or collision.
    >>>

    Both of the FireTrap S Models, as we have been told, ran over "foreign objects" in the road. I'm eagerly looking forward to authorities ever finding either piece of foreign "debris" that attacked those defenseless Model S sedans, because if they find said debris, that would put to rest the question of SPONTANEOUS combustion due to a design flaw in the battery or the chemistry itself, which would be an irreparable defect. ("Excuse us, we need to make another public offering to redesign a new battery... and does anyone have a gargantuan battery plant they aren't using?")

    So let's hope for those of you trying to dump your shares that there are no more "foreign objects" lurking on our streets, waiting to attack your defenseless Pride and Joy by leaping into its underbelly, and let's hope no chronic curb-hoppers get their hands on a Model S and scra-a-a-a-pe their way to a fiery death, and then we'll see whether 100% of the Teslas need to be recalled due to "fire risk."

    I have believed for a while that your car is an eco-fraud and a rip-off. I had no idea it was a deathtrap, too.

    (BTW, I'm very amused that Tesla's press releases clearly state (truthfully or otherwise) that all the drivers in the fires immediately demanded a replacement Roman Candle S, because they were so satisfied with the searing experience.)
    Nov 10 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Painful Journey Into The Valley Of Death [View article]
    >>>
    Fellows, I think Consumer Reports highest ever safety score for Tesla speaks for itself.
    >>>

    Really? I thought the third Tesla battery fire in five weeks speaks even louder than that.
    http://tinyurl.com/n26...

    Zero Hedge is having the second-last laugh here (Mr. Petersen, of course, will have the last):

    "This is the third reported car fire in the past month. So much for that "best safety rating of any car ever tested" - perhaps it really is time to inquire just what the NHTSA kickbacks were in order to go with that "objective" determination?"
    Nov 8 02:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
369 Comments
321 Likes