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  • Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
    Let's see some numbers, charts, facts people, facts.
    And how these will all affect Panasonic's prices to Tesla, etc.

    Well, here goes....

    The only source I consistently use is John Petersen's articles.
    Ignore him or dismiss him as biased if you will:

    He just describes how Panasonic had *two* multi-billion-dollar writedowns in 2012 due to frighteningly low demand for its lithium-ion batteries. If they decide to close down said facilities, due to a lack of profitability, then Tesla will likely face some production delays in their search for another supplier of batteries.

    (And A123 is not available, as Fisker found out.... and in fact, Fisker is not available either....)

    FWIW, I am told by the engineers on this board that Panasonic is not, in fact, the only game in town when it comes to these types of batteries. (Mr. Randy Carlson comes to mind.)

    If Panasonic has to raise prices in order to make a profit on the batteries it sells to (, then Tesla Motors' prices will have to rise, or its much-promised 25% margins will be eaten away by the rising cost of its most important component. This might have a negative impact on share values and overall cancellations... which I shall look into in future posts.

    ...And now, it's dinnertime. Have a good day/evening/etc.
    May 1 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Bear Case Is Flawed - Shares Should Double [View article]
    Thanks for your replies, all three of you, but again, if cross-platform apps become the norm, will that hurt (BBRY)? It will be hard to gain market share if the apps are so versatile, because there might be no advantage to switching from one to another.
    May 1 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Motors Setting Up To Be The Monster Short Squeeze Of 2013? [View article]
    Dear SMT,

    I think you should be alarmed by those four links you just posted.

    You ought to remember the reassurances that were given about the Housing Bubble just before it burst. Those Wall Street 1% types were basically working two phones at once: on one phone, they were trying to reassure their clients about the value of their MBSes; while on the other phone, they were ordering their own brokers to dump those same toxic securities on any sucker they could find.

    I am cherry-picking evidence here, but I'll present it anyway....

    Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: is trading at unusually high volume Tuesday with 5.2 million shares changing hands. It is currently at 2.2 times its average daily volume and trading down $1.17 (-2.1%) at $53.77 as of 3:51 p.m. ET.

    No, it's not JP --

    When I read the words "unusually high volume," I inferred -- rightly or not -- that someone like LAM was trying to dump shares at their peak...
    May 1 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Auto sales are being driven higher by a recovery in the housing market and the wealth effect of a percolating stock market just as much (if not more) than pent-up demand, according to analysts. The average age of vehicles on the road has actually increased to 11.2 years from 10.8 years, giving some indication that perhaps "hundreds of thousands" of units need to be replaced. What to watch: All the major automakers report April U.S. sales numbers today with expectations running high that milder weather and new models on the market boosted sales. [View news story]
    The "wealth effect" currently only exists in the stock markets. Apparently you are dismissing the most recent Labor Participation Rate figures. The severity of the unemployment problem is being overlooked by the media in favor of stories about high stock prices (and low volumes).
    May 1 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]

    It is worth noting that in comparison with these three other recipients, Tesla had the smallest loan. Ford’s loan was for $5.9 billion, Nissan’s was for $1.4 billion, and Fisker’s was for $529 million.

    To be consistent, I don't like the idea of the DoE giving out loans to other companies like Ford either -- they've been around for a century and they ought to be pioneering alternative technologies themselves.

    I don't feel sorry for that company after Fisker worked for Tesla, with the intention of starting his own company. He stole every idea he could from Tesla, then went and started his own company. This is the kind of company taxpayers need to be on the watch for, but this one slipped through the cracks, so it's taxpayers who lost there.

    I don't know anything about the history of Fisker's employment at Tesla Motors, but he clearly didn't steal the right ideas, because his cars burst into flames when they got wet.

    ... only Tesla is paying the loan back early...

    Because they are being *ordered* to by the DoE, as a result of violating their loan conditions. Their asset-to-liabilities ratios demanded that the gov't take action. You and the other EVangelicals make it sound as if they're doing it because they're good corporate citizens. They have no choice -- is it possible that Tesla execs might go to jail if they *refuse* to pay it back earlier?

    Still, you were at least honest with this little slip:

    Our personal charter, from Day One of the company’s existence has been to achieve the maximum return out of every dollar invested,...

    "Our" personal charter... as in "Tesla's," because that is where you work. I wonder how many of your colleagues are on this board, masquerading as independent commentators. (FLG, anyone?)

    I just finished reading that Reuters article about the perils of Li-ion batteries. The article cites some defenders of the technology but the tenor of the piece is mostly negative. Not only does the writer think that these batteries are very volatile, but they make light of the staggering lack of demand. Here's the link:


    "We don't think that lithium-ion batteries are going to help us get to a point where we can dramatically increase volume and really call it a mass market," Toyota spokesman John Hanson said. "We're going to have a more significant breakthrough and probably go into some other area of battery chemistry."

    Subhash Dhar, who founded Energy Power Systems, the advanced lead-acid battery company, said promised improvements with lithium ion were never met.

    Dhar, who helped develop the nickel-metal hydride battery for the Toyota Prius, described his own "disenchantment" with lithium-ion's complexity and cost.

    "Before the technology was fully optimized and before the markets were ready, we just kind of threw billions of dollars in setting up these manufacturing plants," Dhar said. "They're all sitting idle right now."

    In February 2010, the U.S. government gave more than $150 million to help build a lithium-ion battery factory owned by a unit of Korea's LG Group (051910.KS), LG Chem Ltd. The plant was supposed to make enough battery cells for 60,000 electric vehicles by the end of 2013.

    ++++But the demand never materialized.++++ A U.S. Department of Energy report described the Holland, Michigan factory as a place where workers spent their days playing board games, watching movies or volunteering at a local animal shelter.

    That lack of demand for batteries will definitely affect (TSLA) in its quest for 25% gross margins. I hope they're looking around for one of those other suppliers that engineers on this board have told me about...
    May 1 07:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Q1 Earnings, An Epic April Fools Prank [View article]
    So if the professionals who sold Mortgage Backed Securities have been exercising the power of independent thought when making investment decisions such as selling them to other people, they knew they were selling rubbish?

    And if professionals sell rubbish to non professionals, wouldn't that by highly unethical?

    Off-topic, but if you read "The Money Culture" by Michael Lewis, you will find that certain CDOs were being peddled back in the 1980s to various small-town S&Ls and the back-slappers at Salomon Brothers and other firms quietly referred to such mortgage-backed securities as "toxic waste" within their own circles.

    This book was written back in the late 1980s, and yes, it was highly unethical.

    This is not an analogy that any defender of ( -- or any firm for that matter -- wants people to associate with their shares.
    Apr 30 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Bear Case Is Flawed - Shares Should Double [View article]
    Mondego, Marcap, WallLizard, et al.:

    We do care about apps if they will save us money.

    The newest Nokia phone is apparently equipped with an app called "Whatsapp," which George Kesarios describes in a recent article:

    WhatsApp is a very popular cross-platform text and messaging app in many parts of the world, because it lets users communicate for free via the Internet bypassing telecom providers.

    There is also a similar cross-platform version of Skype called "Viber." (Has anyone here used it?)

    He later concludes that, the more apps become "cross-platform," the less it will matter which cellphone you use.

    So yes, apps DO matter. (Perhaps GAME apps don't matter....)
    Apr 30 07:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
    We live in a world where many people (or as I call them sheeple) blindly follow "smart" people.

    Seeking the advice of professionals is called "looking for expertise," "doing research," "due diligence" and a variety of other things. From the research I've done, the debt and losses and exaggerated cash flow of (TSLA) makes it a disaster waiting to happen.

    Normally I shouldn't care, but someone might be swayed by all this EV agitprop and put all their money into Tesla just before the Big Short hits it.

    (Will be short (TSLA) in the near future. And when it goes up, some of the EV "sheeple" might be handing me their resumes...)
    Apr 29 10:38 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Sells Out In 90 Minutes At Selfridges [View article]
    Especially since he has no vested interested in the stock, nor does he get paid per click here.

    I don't mind you pointing out a conflict of interest, but I seriously doubt that anyone can make a living off the pageviews of SA.

    John Petersen, one of the most routinely "popular" columnists who routinely gets comment threads in the hundreds, admitted that he'll probably get $100 US for one of his recent popular articles. And most pundits will never approach his level of traffic.

    Mr. Collins simply CANNOT get rich off this article, unless he was already eating out of a dumpster behind Selfridges.

    (DISC: No positions.)
    Apr 28 10:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Sells Out In 90 Minutes At Selfridges [View article]

    Although you are capable of pointing out some important things -- the importance of proving that some journos knew something was false, for example -- you are now trying to wax poetic about the fallacy of rational markets *in the face of stock price manipulation and sabotage* of a product launch.

    I am not long ( yet, so if you have good returns, then it might be time to take them; because I don't have to tell you, surely, that in the short term, the market is a voting machine (reflecting popularity and fleeting opinion), whereas in the long term, it is a weighing machine (measuring value).

    (PS I am not against shorts. Investigate certain articles on ( and ( and you'll find plenty of illusory value just waiting to come crashing down.)
    Apr 28 10:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Long Now, Short Later [View article]
    Good point Joe, and by 2017 we would have had +++4 years of 8% increase per year of battery performance.+++

    I beg your pardon -- increases in the effectiveness of battery performance cannot be mandated by anyone, not even the Obama administration. It is a matter of chemistry.

    Whether you're long or short (TSLA) stock, the song remains the same: there is no Moore's Law for batteries. They are not "destined" to improve on anything approaching a regular schedule.
    Apr 28 10:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nothing But Empty Promises From This Former Mobile Giant? [View article]
    bedrck65 and others,

    You are not the only person who believes that (BBRY) can be a thriving concern.

    BBRY does *not* have to displace (AAPL) or Samsung in order to make money for its shareholders. It merely has to deliver a compelling alternative at a reasonable cost.
    Apr 28 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Prepares The New Keyboard [View article]
    FWIW, Pacific Crest's James Faucette has been singled out for lazy journalistic practices and inaccurate reporting regarding (BBRY) products in order to allegedly provide a pretext for a bear run on the stock.... without such a pretext, such a run is illegal.

    More, if you're interested:
    Apr 26 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Prepares The New Keyboard [View article]
    I don't expect BlackBerry to be a player unless it's a licensing deal.

    This might be of interest to you -- author George Kesarios has explored this topic:
    Apr 26 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Barron's Just Pull A Forbes On BlackBerry? [View article]
    Really paranoid fantasy.

    You may think that Mr. Collins' concerns are overblown, but market manipulation is no fantasy. I can cite two examples of market manipulation that occurred well before the age of Quants and HFT.

    1. In "The New Market Wizards," a former trader from Salomon brothers reports that occasionally, traders conspired to drive the prices *down* when they should have been going up, SOLELY to take out stop loss orders. They could not be held accountable due to the "fast action" rules that govern pit trading.

    2. Michael Lewis describes how traders drove prices down with huge selling pressure, causing a cascade of short orders, before doing a 180 and buying them all back at favorable, dirt-cheap prices. He made it seem like common practice. (The book in which this is described is called "Liar's Poker.")

    a rather small and insignificant Canadian company

    I suppose every company is small and insignificant compared to the likes of (AAPL), but $7.8B in market capitalization is nothing to sneeze at. Shareholders' retirement funds are at stake here.

    Now about 70% of all analyst ae negative about the future of Rimm.

    SA contributor George Kesarios notes that those shorts are currently in the red.
    Source: (April 26, 2013)
    Apr 26 10:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment