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  • Valuation Dashboard: Financials - Update  [View article]
    Interesting read, but I would add a fifth key metric when placing a value on financials. Especially banks, and that being price to book value.
    Jan 30, 2016. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yield Curve Says No Recession  [View article]
    300K jobs/month - jobless claims? + population growth? = net jobs?
    So sorry 300K/month just doesn't cut it.
    Jan 30, 2016. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interest Rate Forecast 2016-2017: Fed Likely To Tighten For 2 More Years  [View article]
    My, My, My, it certainly is going to be a very, merry, Christmas around the Conerly household this season with such optimism. Your profile suggests that your expertise in the world of economics is much greater than mine, but where on earth do you see the growth that is to justify the rates you predict? This first hike was made rather reluctantly, and this Fed has made it a point to state that it will be accommodative for the foreseeable future. The rates you predict are hardly seen as being accommodative. A .25 raise and Janet has kept the Fed relevant. If you are privy to some secret growth forecasts, please share with us. I currently don't see business investments being made in anticipation of this ramp up. Do you think exports, in the face of a strong dollar, are going to be this driver? I truly do hope that your forecast is correct, because normalized rates are going to suggest that our economy has certainly turned for the better. I only wish your article had suggested what is going to justify the rates you predict.
    Dec 17, 2015. 04:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Banks Are Not Agricultural Marketing Boards: Depression Economics, Inflation Economics And The Unsustainability Of Friedmanism  [View article]
    Thank you for commenting on my post, which was unceremoniously deleted by the powers that be at Seeking Alpha, for merely calling the Author a fool. Or did the author complain? I guess I should have merely commented that his ideas are foolish. Inflation has always been associated to growth, as deflation has been associated with a deceleration in the economy. Hence the Feds target on inflation at 2%. Anything above that from growth and the Fed tightens. Below that level, as now, it will remain ZIRP. With the great debate that is currently being played out, should the Fed raise or should they hold steady, I too believe the Fed always gets it wrong. The Fed was quite befuddled in the days of stagflation. How could we have such high inflation with a stagnant economy? It did not make sense, and was a high risk to raise interest rates at time. But they went against all of their intellectual models, whether it be demand side or supply side and did something Bold. If this intellectual author, strolling around the campus of Berkley, and his cohorts like Paul Krugman, would put aside their set in stone philosophies and preach for something bold maybe I would begin to take them more seriously. Instead all they want to publish are articles that want to smash all thoughts that cater to supply side economics. Get over it! Supply Side economics are not in force now and haven't been since this century began.
    Oct 25, 2015. 06:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Powerless To Boost Jobs Growth  [View article]
    To the author,

    What is significant is the chart showing the trend line on US Civilian Labor Force and the correlation to a trend line on US GDP going back to the late 80's.
    Oct 3, 2015. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Defensive Sectors Most At Risk From A Bond Market Sell-Off  [View article]
    Mr. Kingham,
    What is your opinion on muni's, in particular muni closed end funds? Keeping in mind also their tax free status.
    Jun 6, 2015. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Thoughts On GDP  [View article]
    Mr. Early,
    This is the Laffer Curve, that I believe does need to be re-explored.
    Jun 1, 2015. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Thoughts On GDP  [View article]
    And, the big question still remains from your first chart. With the current policies from this Fed and the current administration, do we trend back to average? Or with the current policies is this the start of a new lower trend line?
    May 30, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James Montier Rightly Dismisses The Natural Rate Of Interest  [View article]
    I guess all of us fools that make up the masses just don't have the knowledge of a select few to determine what interest rate the general economy can bear. If only we could ever discover this "Invisible Hand", I am sure these most intelligent people of our society could control it.
    May 21, 2015. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Financial Stability Has Become Increasingly Important  [View article]
    I agree with you about the instability of owning volatile asset classes. But with the financial engineering of the FED and low interest rates for savers, is there any other game in town? Every day the savers of days past keep their money in the bank are days they lose purchasing power.
    Apr 24, 2015. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Fed Caused An Economic Slowdown?  [View article]
    I think you have finally convinced yourself. The Fed can't do squat!
    Since the late 90's and Alan Greenspan, the Fed has done everything with it's bag of tools to spur inflation and growth and nothing to show for it.
    Apr 19, 2015. 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Human Innovation Is Winning The Race Against Scarce Resources  [View article]
    Gee Cullen, are you suggesting that debt is now replacing gold as the Fear trade. Also, I don't think any of us want to be around when mankind is pumping out of the ground the last barrel of oil. Petroleum products are so prominent in everyday products and the world is not changing that fast.

    Pleasant dreams Cullen, one morning you will wake up!
    Apr 16, 2015. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Money Will You Need To Retire?  [View instapost]
    Not enough is written about the 4% withdrawal rate. If one has a retirement portfolio of both income producing assets, and growth producing assets, draw from both. You will sell off a smaller percentage of your growth assets to reach your 4% withdrawal rate.
    Mar 31, 2015. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Must Tolerate Higher Asset Prices To Achieve Higher Wages  [View article]
    What measure do you use to calculate this credit money supply? The purpose of my comment was to state that M3 is the broadest measure to calculate total money, currency and credit. Therefore, as a difference of opinion to another reply, it is Not useless. If I understand correctly, M1, the FED'S preference today does NOT count personal savings nor the vast reserves of the banks and other large institutions. These same vast reserves that the current regulators have imposed on large banks and institutions. M3 would count this and totally destroy their idiotic and micro-managed models, and the true inflation rate would once and for all be exposed.
    Feb 15, 2015. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Must Tolerate Higher Asset Prices To Achieve Higher Wages  [View article]
    These are interesting comments. Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't the M3 money supply count what you refer to as credit money? I also think that the Fed stopped publishing the M3 supply, although they still calculate it.
    Feb 14, 2015. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment