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wkl

wkl
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  • What Can the Fed Do Now? [View article]
    Good commits. How soon we forget also, that the crash in 2008 was not a monetary failure, but a credit failure. Stupid lending, Stupid borrowing.
    Jul 11 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can the Fed Do Now? [View article]
    Milton was opposed to central banking because he felt they never get it right. They always overshoot whether they ease or tighten, therefore THEY create boom or bust cycles, the very boom & bust cycles the Fed was created to prevent. Since were are going to keep the Fed, we should make it as efficient as possible. His soulution was to ease on a slow and steady stream of money to keep the economy on an even plain. I think the last two boom & bust cycles show that they do get it wrong.
    Jul 11 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Setting Up for a Repeat of Summer 2009? [View article]
    Alcoa is going to fall short? Oh no not again.
    Jul 11 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can the Fed Do Now? [View article]
    Two thoughts on what you write. One of the first items of business for FDR was to buy up all the gold and make it illegal to own gold. He knew where the money would flock to. Like today, money is indeed flowing into gold reserves or is being hoarded. Keynes theories are not having the same results today as they did 80 years ago. World governments have a greater demand for money than the private sector, and they bring it back faster than the Fed can push it out the door. As for Milton Friedman, it was central banking that did not understand his theories. He understood the Fed, and did not like what he saw.
    Jul 11 12:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can the Fed Do Now? [View article]
    The Fed has done enough. It is now the responsibility of Congress to allow the money to flow in the economy, rather than pulling it back in through debt and taxes. The congress and this administration needs to extend the tax credits and intstill confidence towards business and consumers. As long as the government has the biggest demand for money and not the private sector, banks, business, and consumers will continue to save and hoard cash.
    Jul 11 09:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Setting Up for a Repeat of Summer 2009? [View article]
    Stimulus spending had little effect because the government has such a high demand for money to finance their debt. The government pulls the money back in one door as fast as the Fed can push it out another door. With the tax cuts ending in Dec., any new stimulus will be pulled in even quicker thru higher taxes. Banks need incentives and confidence to lend and be ALLOWED to take on risk, business needs incentives and confidence to expand and hire, and consumers need incentives and confidence to spend. We need jobs, jobs, jobs and less demand of money from the government. If we want to get out of a deflationary cycle, we must allow money to stay and work in the economy, instead of rushing back into the treasury. Paul Krugman and the other followers of Keynes need to realize that philosophy is dead and will not have the same effect as it did 80 years ago. Governments around the world are too far in debt, and demand too much debt and taxes to allow the dollars to stay in the economy.
    Jul 10 10:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Unemployment Is Still a Problem [View article]
    Thank you for the charts John. The first time I heard the phrase "jobless recovery", I shouted nonsense. There will be no sustained recovery until the unemployment rate is down to the 6% range, and we add 400,000+ jobs monthy. The one key ingredient we need from our leaders is confidence, not stimulus or placement of blame for what went wrong. Instead of putting a strangle hold on risk and reward, our congress should be promoting risk. Fear of the unknown is preventing business from freeing up capital for hiring and capital improvements. Fear of the unknown is preventing the consumer from buying and taking on new debt.
    Jul 5 11:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stock Market’s Trend About to Be Tested [View article]
    You make a compelling argument. Now, can you do something about those nasty employment numbers.
    Jun 30 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First Quarter GDP and the Inventory Effect [View article]
    There is always a build out of inventories after a recession. Now we need higher employment and higher retail sales. I do not see this happening. We will have a double dip in Q4 of 2010 and Q1 of 2011. The double dip in housing has already started.
    Jun 26 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts, Permits Plunge in May [View article]
    Latest employment numbers were bad too. Coincidence? Naaa.
    Jun 17 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Gold Perform During Deflation? [View article]
    The Fed is telling us we are in a deflationary period now, and it is doing well. I think gold is an asset that trades more on fear and unclear markets, than on asset worth. Inflation and deflation both create fear and unclear markets.
    Jun 17 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing's Slow, Uneven Recovery [View article]
    Keep an eye on the employment numbers Scott. Slow rebound in employment, slow rebound in housing. Could you present a chart showing how the two coincide.
    Jun 17 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PPI Update: Inflation Is Not Dead [View article]
    These numbers are real, but so far producers have been hesitant to pass the increase on to the consumer. Once demand picks up, you will see the same rising slope with the CPI numbers.
    Jun 17 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Road Back to an Asset-Based Economy [View article]
    Mistrofan,
    My data comes from the u.s. census. See www. census.gov Housing tables from when they started tracking median house prices in 1940. The last data is from the 2000 census, and this is a national average. The actual increase is about 2.25% yearly average. I am referring to the table that has adjusted all prices to inflation. I think it is the first table. Please note when you check the data of the big increase in the 1970's. I am sure the fed is trying to prop up prices with liquidity in a deflationary environment. But my point is, it will have no effect without demand and an over supply of inventory. Demand can not pick up until the unemployment rate starts a trend down to the 6% range. I am interested in the data you state that goes back 125 years. I am not aware of any private or government data that has tracked that far back.
    Jun 13 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Road Back to an Asset-Based Economy [View article]
    History shows real estate values should only increase at around 3% per year. Your chart showing real estate values from 1987 to the dot.com bubble bears this out. During this period real estate behaved the way it should. From 2000 to 2008 home prices inflated at an abnormal high rate and we have built too many, and too big, homes. Home prices will still need to fall 15%+ , or remain flat for several years to return to normal growth rates. For decades we have been of the belief that home ownership is the proper way for the average citizen to build wealth. I envision real estate being depressed for another 5-6 years, and unemployment being elevated for the same period. All the inflating the Fed can do will not change this. The equity markets can correct in a very short time. Real estate markets correct over a period of years.
    Jun 12 01:28 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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