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wkl

wkl
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  • The Long Road Back to an Asset-Based Economy [View article]
    Mistrofan,
    My data comes from the u.s. census. See www. census.gov Housing tables from when they started tracking median house prices in 1940. The last data is from the 2000 census, and this is a national average. The actual increase is about 2.25% yearly average. I am referring to the table that has adjusted all prices to inflation. I think it is the first table. Please note when you check the data of the big increase in the 1970's. I am sure the fed is trying to prop up prices with liquidity in a deflationary environment. But my point is, it will have no effect without demand and an over supply of inventory. Demand can not pick up until the unemployment rate starts a trend down to the 6% range. I am interested in the data you state that goes back 125 years. I am not aware of any private or government data that has tracked that far back.
    Jun 13, 2010. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Road Back to an Asset-Based Economy [View article]
    History shows real estate values should only increase at around 3% per year. Your chart showing real estate values from 1987 to the dot.com bubble bears this out. During this period real estate behaved the way it should. From 2000 to 2008 home prices inflated at an abnormal high rate and we have built too many, and too big, homes. Home prices will still need to fall 15%+ , or remain flat for several years to return to normal growth rates. For decades we have been of the belief that home ownership is the proper way for the average citizen to build wealth. I envision real estate being depressed for another 5-6 years, and unemployment being elevated for the same period. All the inflating the Fed can do will not change this. The equity markets can correct in a very short time. Real estate markets correct over a period of years.
    Jun 12, 2010. 01:28 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Markets Still Love Bernanke [View article]
    If Ben would let me borrow a gazillion at 0% and walk across the street to loan the government at 3% with no risk, I would love him too. But folks this game has been rigged since 1913. JPM & Cronies set the rules after 1907.
    Jun 9, 2010. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Be a Contrarian [View article]
    Buzzer,
    Except for the momentum investor and Cramer, we are all contrarian.
    Jun 5, 2010. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Sector Job Growth Anemic [View article]
    My biggest concern from the employment data was the drop in construction hiring. This number should be rising at this point in the calendar year. Two points about this sector currently concern me. One, stimulus spending had little effect going forward. Two, what does this tell us about the housing recovery going forward?
    Jun 5, 2010. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Be a Contrarian [View article]
    You state that interest rates will stay low for a long period of time. Fund inflows at this time favor bond funds over equity funds by a large margin. If the contrarian style of investing dominated the market going forward, the market will short bonds and go long equities. Interest rates will rise, not fall, to attract the investment dollar for debt.
    Jun 5, 2010. 10:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What HP's Layoff Announcement Says About Future Job Growth [View article]
    You stated a growth of 7.4 million jobs from 1999 - 2007. How does this compare to population growth for the same period? Are we keeping up with population growth or falling behind?
    Jun 5, 2010. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Job Creation Actually Totaled 787,000 [View article]
    Robert,
    the M3 falling off a cliff is precisely my concern for the rise in wages. The two moving in opposite directions are not consistant. Especially with today's jobs report on private hiring.
    Jun 4, 2010. 11:37 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Job Creation Actually Totaled 787,000 [View article]
    All the talk about deflation and wages up at a 5.33% clip. Something seems amiss.
    Jun 4, 2010. 07:29 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Goes Middle Class, vs. the Case for Less [View article]
    I am not sure of the direction of your arguments and what you advocate. I agree with what has been written about higher ethics in our business dealings. But this has to come from individuals in how they deal with other members of their societies. Ethics and morals are not subjects that can be legislated. It comes from moral sentiment. What makes us happy. Is it just to accumalate all the wealth we can no matter how we obtain that wealth? I don't think so. Happiness comes in how we deal with others. If I help you, it makes me feel good. Just because I beleive that my society is better served when I act out on my "self interest", does not make me selfish. Are you advocating more government control? Do advocate a more Marxist style of society control? When we move towards this direction, low productivity always follows. Do you think fraud, greed, and deceit will somehow leave the human soul? No matter the economical model, man will always want to act in his self interest. That self interest may be to do as little as possible, and let the rest of society take care of me from cradle to grave.
    Jun 3, 2010. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Goes Middle Class, vs. the Case for Less [View article]
    I agree we should relearn what moral philosophy has taught us about what makes us happy. But don't pick and choose which philosopher you may wish to follow. Adam Smith was also a moral philosopher, and he believed also that societies are best served when the individual is left to their own "Self Interest".
    Jun 2, 2010. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Data That Indicates U.S. Economy Is Headed for a 2010 Double Dip [View article]
    I am glad you mentioned the anit-growth measures that will be coming out of our states and local communities. Our states and local governments are laden with debt, and no growth in revenue. They are resorting to layoffs, cutting services, and taking on even more debt to operate. Until our state's and cities return to a solid foundation, any recovery will be slow and uneven.
    Jun 2, 2010. 07:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Governments That Were Once the Solution Are Now the Problem [View article]
    Call the Kremlin, ask how this worked for them.
    May 30, 2010. 10:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Governments That Were Once the Solution Are Now the Problem [View article]
    "Government is not the solution, Government is the problem". I miss you Ronnie
    May 30, 2010. 12:19 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sound Money Article Sure to Be Ignored by the Fed [View article]
    The Fed and the treasury dept. only concern now is to finance the government debt with cheap money.
    May 30, 2010. 12:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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