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wkl

wkl
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  • First Quarter GDP and the Inventory Effect [View article]
    There is always a build out of inventories after a recession. Now we need higher employment and higher retail sales. I do not see this happening. We will have a double dip in Q4 of 2010 and Q1 of 2011. The double dip in housing has already started.
    Jun 26, 2010. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts, Permits Plunge in May [View article]
    Latest employment numbers were bad too. Coincidence? Naaa.
    Jun 17, 2010. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Gold Perform During Deflation? [View article]
    The Fed is telling us we are in a deflationary period now, and it is doing well. I think gold is an asset that trades more on fear and unclear markets, than on asset worth. Inflation and deflation both create fear and unclear markets.
    Jun 17, 2010. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing's Slow, Uneven Recovery [View article]
    Keep an eye on the employment numbers Scott. Slow rebound in employment, slow rebound in housing. Could you present a chart showing how the two coincide.
    Jun 17, 2010. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PPI Update: Inflation Is Not Dead [View article]
    These numbers are real, but so far producers have been hesitant to pass the increase on to the consumer. Once demand picks up, you will see the same rising slope with the CPI numbers.
    Jun 17, 2010. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Road Back to an Asset-Based Economy [View article]
    Mistrofan,
    My data comes from the u.s. census. See www. census.gov Housing tables from when they started tracking median house prices in 1940. The last data is from the 2000 census, and this is a national average. The actual increase is about 2.25% yearly average. I am referring to the table that has adjusted all prices to inflation. I think it is the first table. Please note when you check the data of the big increase in the 1970's. I am sure the fed is trying to prop up prices with liquidity in a deflationary environment. But my point is, it will have no effect without demand and an over supply of inventory. Demand can not pick up until the unemployment rate starts a trend down to the 6% range. I am interested in the data you state that goes back 125 years. I am not aware of any private or government data that has tracked that far back.
    Jun 13, 2010. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Road Back to an Asset-Based Economy [View article]
    History shows real estate values should only increase at around 3% per year. Your chart showing real estate values from 1987 to the dot.com bubble bears this out. During this period real estate behaved the way it should. From 2000 to 2008 home prices inflated at an abnormal high rate and we have built too many, and too big, homes. Home prices will still need to fall 15%+ , or remain flat for several years to return to normal growth rates. For decades we have been of the belief that home ownership is the proper way for the average citizen to build wealth. I envision real estate being depressed for another 5-6 years, and unemployment being elevated for the same period. All the inflating the Fed can do will not change this. The equity markets can correct in a very short time. Real estate markets correct over a period of years.
    Jun 12, 2010. 01:28 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Markets Still Love Bernanke [View article]
    If Ben would let me borrow a gazillion at 0% and walk across the street to loan the government at 3% with no risk, I would love him too. But folks this game has been rigged since 1913. JPM & Cronies set the rules after 1907.
    Jun 9, 2010. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Be a Contrarian [View article]
    Buzzer,
    Except for the momentum investor and Cramer, we are all contrarian.
    Jun 5, 2010. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Sector Job Growth Anemic [View article]
    My biggest concern from the employment data was the drop in construction hiring. This number should be rising at this point in the calendar year. Two points about this sector currently concern me. One, stimulus spending had little effect going forward. Two, what does this tell us about the housing recovery going forward?
    Jun 5, 2010. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Be a Contrarian [View article]
    You state that interest rates will stay low for a long period of time. Fund inflows at this time favor bond funds over equity funds by a large margin. If the contrarian style of investing dominated the market going forward, the market will short bonds and go long equities. Interest rates will rise, not fall, to attract the investment dollar for debt.
    Jun 5, 2010. 10:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What HP's Layoff Announcement Says About Future Job Growth [View article]
    You stated a growth of 7.4 million jobs from 1999 - 2007. How does this compare to population growth for the same period? Are we keeping up with population growth or falling behind?
    Jun 5, 2010. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Job Creation Actually Totaled 787,000 [View article]
    Robert,
    the M3 falling off a cliff is precisely my concern for the rise in wages. The two moving in opposite directions are not consistant. Especially with today's jobs report on private hiring.
    Jun 4, 2010. 11:37 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Job Creation Actually Totaled 787,000 [View article]
    All the talk about deflation and wages up at a 5.33% clip. Something seems amiss.
    Jun 4, 2010. 07:29 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Goes Middle Class, vs. the Case for Less [View article]
    I am not sure of the direction of your arguments and what you advocate. I agree with what has been written about higher ethics in our business dealings. But this has to come from individuals in how they deal with other members of their societies. Ethics and morals are not subjects that can be legislated. It comes from moral sentiment. What makes us happy. Is it just to accumalate all the wealth we can no matter how we obtain that wealth? I don't think so. Happiness comes in how we deal with others. If I help you, it makes me feel good. Just because I beleive that my society is better served when I act out on my "self interest", does not make me selfish. Are you advocating more government control? Do advocate a more Marxist style of society control? When we move towards this direction, low productivity always follows. Do you think fraud, greed, and deceit will somehow leave the human soul? No matter the economical model, man will always want to act in his self interest. That self interest may be to do as little as possible, and let the rest of society take care of me from cradle to grave.
    Jun 3, 2010. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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