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wkl

wkl
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  • Are We Setting Up for a Repeat of Summer 2009? [View article]
    Stimulus spending had little effect because the government has such a high demand for money to finance their debt. The government pulls the money back in one door as fast as the Fed can push it out another door. With the tax cuts ending in Dec., any new stimulus will be pulled in even quicker thru higher taxes. Banks need incentives and confidence to lend and be ALLOWED to take on risk, business needs incentives and confidence to expand and hire, and consumers need incentives and confidence to spend. We need jobs, jobs, jobs and less demand of money from the government. If we want to get out of a deflationary cycle, we must allow money to stay and work in the economy, instead of rushing back into the treasury. Paul Krugman and the other followers of Keynes need to realize that philosophy is dead and will not have the same effect as it did 80 years ago. Governments around the world are too far in debt, and demand too much debt and taxes to allow the dollars to stay in the economy.
    Jul 10, 2010. 10:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Unemployment Is Still a Problem [View article]
    Thank you for the charts John. The first time I heard the phrase "jobless recovery", I shouted nonsense. There will be no sustained recovery until the unemployment rate is down to the 6% range, and we add 400,000+ jobs monthy. The one key ingredient we need from our leaders is confidence, not stimulus or placement of blame for what went wrong. Instead of putting a strangle hold on risk and reward, our congress should be promoting risk. Fear of the unknown is preventing business from freeing up capital for hiring and capital improvements. Fear of the unknown is preventing the consumer from buying and taking on new debt.
    Jul 5, 2010. 11:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stock Market's Trend About to Be Tested [View article]
    You make a compelling argument. Now, can you do something about those nasty employment numbers.
    Jun 30, 2010. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First Quarter GDP and the Inventory Effect [View article]
    There is always a build out of inventories after a recession. Now we need higher employment and higher retail sales. I do not see this happening. We will have a double dip in Q4 of 2010 and Q1 of 2011. The double dip in housing has already started.
    Jun 26, 2010. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts, Permits Plunge in May [View article]
    Latest employment numbers were bad too. Coincidence? Naaa.
    Jun 17, 2010. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Gold Perform During Deflation? [View article]
    The Fed is telling us we are in a deflationary period now, and it is doing well. I think gold is an asset that trades more on fear and unclear markets, than on asset worth. Inflation and deflation both create fear and unclear markets.
    Jun 17, 2010. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing's Slow, Uneven Recovery [View article]
    Keep an eye on the employment numbers Scott. Slow rebound in employment, slow rebound in housing. Could you present a chart showing how the two coincide.
    Jun 17, 2010. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PPI Update: Inflation Is Not Dead [View article]
    These numbers are real, but so far producers have been hesitant to pass the increase on to the consumer. Once demand picks up, you will see the same rising slope with the CPI numbers.
    Jun 17, 2010. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Road Back to an Asset-Based Economy [View article]
    Mistrofan,
    My data comes from the u.s. census. See www. census.gov Housing tables from when they started tracking median house prices in 1940. The last data is from the 2000 census, and this is a national average. The actual increase is about 2.25% yearly average. I am referring to the table that has adjusted all prices to inflation. I think it is the first table. Please note when you check the data of the big increase in the 1970's. I am sure the fed is trying to prop up prices with liquidity in a deflationary environment. But my point is, it will have no effect without demand and an over supply of inventory. Demand can not pick up until the unemployment rate starts a trend down to the 6% range. I am interested in the data you state that goes back 125 years. I am not aware of any private or government data that has tracked that far back.
    Jun 13, 2010. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Road Back to an Asset-Based Economy [View article]
    History shows real estate values should only increase at around 3% per year. Your chart showing real estate values from 1987 to the dot.com bubble bears this out. During this period real estate behaved the way it should. From 2000 to 2008 home prices inflated at an abnormal high rate and we have built too many, and too big, homes. Home prices will still need to fall 15%+ , or remain flat for several years to return to normal growth rates. For decades we have been of the belief that home ownership is the proper way for the average citizen to build wealth. I envision real estate being depressed for another 5-6 years, and unemployment being elevated for the same period. All the inflating the Fed can do will not change this. The equity markets can correct in a very short time. Real estate markets correct over a period of years.
    Jun 12, 2010. 01:28 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Markets Still Love Bernanke [View article]
    If Ben would let me borrow a gazillion at 0% and walk across the street to loan the government at 3% with no risk, I would love him too. But folks this game has been rigged since 1913. JPM & Cronies set the rules after 1907.
    Jun 9, 2010. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Be a Contrarian [View article]
    Buzzer,
    Except for the momentum investor and Cramer, we are all contrarian.
    Jun 5, 2010. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Sector Job Growth Anemic [View article]
    My biggest concern from the employment data was the drop in construction hiring. This number should be rising at this point in the calendar year. Two points about this sector currently concern me. One, stimulus spending had little effect going forward. Two, what does this tell us about the housing recovery going forward?
    Jun 5, 2010. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Be a Contrarian [View article]
    You state that interest rates will stay low for a long period of time. Fund inflows at this time favor bond funds over equity funds by a large margin. If the contrarian style of investing dominated the market going forward, the market will short bonds and go long equities. Interest rates will rise, not fall, to attract the investment dollar for debt.
    Jun 5, 2010. 10:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What HP's Layoff Announcement Says About Future Job Growth [View article]
    You stated a growth of 7.4 million jobs from 1999 - 2007. How does this compare to population growth for the same period? Are we keeping up with population growth or falling behind?
    Jun 5, 2010. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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