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  • Can We Grow Our Way Out of Debt?  [View article]
    Is there not one single economist in this country that even considers the individual states and local economies? States and local communities are smothered in debt, and cash poor. Any growth that may occur over the next several years will be eaten away by state and local taxing bodies to pay down debt and service the legacy cost left behind by a generation of early retirement and end of life benefits. They can't print money or say no to the federal government when DC passes legislation such as health care and medicaid then passes much of the cost on to the states.
    May 20, 2010. 07:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On: Part X, Improving Vehicle Efficiency  [View article]
    Your pay per mile may be quite fair for metroplitan commuters, but I think this would place a very unfair economic burden for our rural areas where private transportation is the only option because of availabilty, and cost constraints for public transportation. I think we will continue to have different philosphical and investment opinions on the subject. Were I to invest for this market, I would perfer Precision Cast Parts. This would cover both conventional auto parts and aerospace.
    May 17, 2010. 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Not-So-Great Recovery  [View article]
    Professor Morici, I agree with most of what you say. But, I am perplexed with this article as a follow up to the article you wrote 5-14-10 titled "Stocks Poised For A Big Rally", which you called the Dow reaching 13,000 by 2011. I disagree that the Dow is that unattached from the US economy, especially the job market and the excessive debt that will compete for the investment dollars. Our national economy can not grow at normal stable rates until we find a way for states and local governments to return to sound and fiscal policy. Debt is our biggest enemy, and will kill job creation for the long haul. Would you please explain how you can meld these two articles into one train of thought.
    May 16, 2010. 08:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On: Part X, Improving Vehicle Efficiency  [View article]
    Mr. Konrad you may call yourself a capitalist, but please clarify what kind. A state capitalist or a free market capitalist?
    May 16, 2010. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Poised for Big Rally  [View article]
    Simmer down my friend. The next time we have a Republican administration you can be a doom and gloomer too. Only from the left.
    May 15, 2010. 03:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On: Part X, Improving Vehicle Efficiency  [View article]
    I believe the weight increase came mostly from the SUV. The SUV has been classified as a truck. Trucks have lower standards for fuel efficiencies, therefore carmakers could market the SUV to meet fleet regulations. I must admit I am a pure capitalist and do not agree about the iron fist of government persausions to bring about change for anything. I still believe in the invisible hand and individuals will determine what is best for them in regards to their own situations. If gasoline gets to $10 a gallon through market forces, they will drive less on their own. If they discover hybrids to be produced at a competitive price and are cheaper to drive and maintain than gas engines, they will purchase them. If all electric cars become cheaper without the hassel of limited mileage to recharge, people will purchase. Let the market place work.
    May 15, 2010. 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Poised for Big Rally  [View article]
    Mr. Morici it is time to stop saying "It's the economy, stupid" and start with a new phrase, "It's the debt, stupid". Any growth we see in our economy will need to be transfered through higher taxes to pay down this debt. Before you get to euphoric about the last couple of quarters, I think you should consider the terrible financial situations of our individual states and local communities are in. The fact that our multi-national corporations are showing growth from other economies will not transfer wealth to our states, our cities, or our citizens. We have still only recovered 1 job for the ten jobs that were lost from the last downturn. If all is well, as you state, why was there such a flight to safety in treasuries this past week? In order for the Dow to reach such lofty levels as you predict, money will flood out of treasuries and rates will skyrocket. Regardless of where the Fed puts their target rates, borrowing rates will be substantially higher. This will place even more stress on our federal government, state governments, and local communities to pay off debt. In short, excessive debt always slows growth.
    May 15, 2010. 02:20 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dr. Copper Gives a Big Warning Signal  [View article]
    Bill Gross states the 30 year rally in bonds is over. And if copper is telling us of a possible bear market, other commodities will sell off too. What will be left gold and a tin can?
    May 9, 2010. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Hiring Should Sustain Recovery  [View article]
    WOW! Over the last 4 months our economy has created 1 job for every 10 lost in the melt down. But gotta the love the optimism. Word of caution before your excuberence gets to you. Our state budgets are in crisis mode. Exploding deficits and the only way out is higher taxes on consumers and these new hires.
    May 8, 2010. 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Turmoil Could Mean Buy in May  [View article]
    My reference to 1065 on the S&P was to only show the next level of resistance, and to state this is not the time for predictions on market directions. If buyers don't step up at that level, then yes it will have to drop more to get me interested too.
    May 8, 2010. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Turmoil Could Mean Buy in May  [View article]
    My take from your article is you must be a raging bull on the way. No fear from a domino effect? This market will have to test 1065 on the S&P. I think we should wait and see the action at that level before making predictions on where the market will be headed next.
    May 8, 2010. 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will There Be Hyperinflation in the U.S.?  [View article]
    Do we even know the supply of money today? I may be mistaken here, but I don't think we even calculate money supply today as we did 30 years ago. At that time was it the M3? And does the Fed even publish this number anymore. It's like they use various economic models that they care not to share just to give us a feel good number. I don't think they even consider debt as being part of the supply. With the liquidity that has been pushed into the system the last 2 years, and demand for goods pick up, Ben will not be able to turn the spigot off fast enough.
    May 4, 2010. 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While Wall Street Revels, Pessimism is Rife on Main Street  [View instapost]
    Is hope and change becomming lost hope and disdain? According to the charts, this is the only time we have seen a negative reading. And this includes some very trying times in the late 70's and early 80's. Although that was an inflationary period and incomes were rising, we still had high unemployment.
    May 2, 2010. 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Cares if Goldman Sachs Bet Against the U.S. Housing Market?  [View article]
    So, you don't want to blame the borrower anymore? I blame the borrower for the entire mess, along with the politicians who pushed the banks to lend to anyone regardless of their ability to pay the loans. These people took out loans they could never pay back, or thought they could flip houses like they were stock certificates. They were the ones taking out loans for hundred's of thousand's of $$ and could not figure out the terms of the loan and probably did not use the services of lawyer to help them with the transaction. Our Fed chief at the time, was pushing sub-prime and ARM'S at a time when interest rates were at historical lows. Hey Fed Chief, when interest rates are that low, ARM'S only have one way to go but up! This is not the first banking crisis and it won't be the last, regardless of what financial reform our genius's in DC come up with. All banking failures happen because of the debtors inability to pay his debt. This is also more than a housing crisis. It is credit card debt, and our society thinking we can create wealth by borrowed money. Don't just blame the greed on the financial institutions that are asked to finance the debt, for they have to hedge their risks too. Greed is a society problem where enough is never enough.
    May 1, 2010. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost Family: Growth at a Reasonable Price  [View article]
    I have been considering a position in AFAM as a small cap value play. The only word of caution I have going forward is Medicare reimbursements. This company does have quite a bit of cash, and I too wish they would consider a dividend.
    Apr 29, 2010. 06:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment