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wkl

wkl
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  • Stocks Are Impotent Without Daily Dose of QE [View article]
    Eric, thanks for the feedback and the link to your previous article. Am I understanding correctly that your current PE of 22 for the S&P is the PE ratio for the 10 year moving average, as opposed to the current PE ratio for the last closing price for the index?
    Jul 17, 2011. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are Impotent Without Daily Dose of QE [View article]
    Eric, what metrics are you using to determine that stocks are 40% overvalued? I don't beleive it is the PE ratio or what the S&P earnings are expected to show for this quarter.
    Jul 17, 2011. 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Ripe for the Picking? [View article]
    The shale plays are no longer just about NG. The fracking process has allowed the drillers access to larger volumns of liquids that were not available before. Plus, if our nation does not fully embrace NG, the rest of the world will.
    Jul 17, 2011. 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • While the debt talks may be stuck, the sides agree that selling federal property would be a good way to raise money, especially as the U.S. owns over 45,000 under-utilized buildings that cost $1.66B/year. However, red tape, the cost of shutting buildings, and and local opposition have blocked such efforts in the past.  [View news story]
    I will comment for Leftfield and hope he agrees with me. How about 10% across the board, military included. All business and individuals had to tighten their belts, time for the idealogues to do the same. I know of no one who beleives that there is not at least 10% of waste and abuse in every federal program.
    Jul 17, 2011. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent polls suggest that Americans are willing to accept some increase in taxes to reduce the deficit, Bruce Bartlett writes. Republicans, take heed.  [View news story]
    Hey Bruce, you afraid to show Rasmussen's polling data? I find it to be a better consensus of the general population. Polling can show the pollster whatever the pollster wants to see by ways in which the question is phrased. Even you know that.
    Jul 14, 2011. 07:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare for a Sell-Off When the Debt Deal Is Struck [View article]
    So, you don't give a shit what the Dems position may be?
    Jul 10, 2011. 06:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare for a Sell-Off When the Debt Deal Is Struck [View article]
    I prefer to look at the bond market to signal what will happen. At this time it is telling us 1 of two things. A) a deal will get done before the arbitrary date of Aug. 2, or B) if a deal is not reached, there will not be the problems that the talking heads are preaching. Let's observe the Treasury auctions this week for further signals.
    Jul 10, 2011. 06:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Ryan: Not Qualified to Chair the House Budget Committee [View article]
    Cullen,
    I have never viewed you as being qualified in your field. You call yourself "The Pragmatic Capitalist", but there is very little that is pragmatic about you. All you ever spew out is theory, and I beleive you know little about the theory of which you write. One who is tied to their ideology as you, fail to listen, or to debate the other side of the argument to come to a logical conclusion. To turn around the mess we are in is going to take bold steps, and steps that go against one's theory. Case in point. The late 70's and early 80's when Volcker drastically raised interest rates in a stagnant economy to tame inflation. I remember the pundits, and the mouth pieces at that time, declaring that this move would surely bring on a depression like the 30's. This went against all of your MMT theories, and I am sure if you were around then, you would smear Paul Volcker in the same fashion as you are trying now with Paul Ryan. Your economic view's are not working now Cullen. The results aren't what they should be from theory. You have flooded the world with dollars though stimulus, QE, and QE2, and the dollars just sit on corporate balance sheets, bank balance sheets, and foreign government balance sheets. You, along with our President, have come up with only one solution. Let's raise taxes and move it to the U.S. government's balance sheet. Yea right, that will really put it to work. You Cullen, are neither pragmatic or a capitalist.
    Jul 8, 2011. 07:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Fiscal Austerity Lead to a Depression? [View article]
    There is no liquidity trap. Corporate balance sheets are filled to the brim with cash, and the world is awash in dollars. This is why QE, QE2, and the stimulus package had so little effect. A world flooded with dollars, and leaders without a clue as to how to put it to work. And our idiot president's only response is to tax, and to transfer the dollars to the government's balance sheet.
    The supply siders are coming, the supply siders are coming, yahoo!
    Jul 6, 2011. 07:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great 'Collapse' in Treasury Bonds: Overheated Talk [View article]
    I view the upward move of interest rates in the bond market the last couple of days to be large in a short period of time. With the end of QE2 ending only yesterday, I view your opinion to be somewhat silly and without thought. At least one should wait more than 24 hours to have one question answered. Exactly who now will be the buyers of Treasuries. Cullen, do your homework and see who the buyer's have been since QE2 began. Basically no one but the FED, and before anyone steps up to be the big buyers now Treasury prices will have to fall substantially. Maybe true price discovery will now be found without the Fed, and the only way the Fed can stop it is to once again become the buyer. We have a major problem with out of control debt, higher interest rates are on the way making that debt more expensive, and the only weapon the Fed has left is a pea shooter in a nuclear war.
    Jul 1, 2011. 11:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cut, Cap and Balance = R.I.P. USA [View article]
    Cullen,
    All of this crap that you spew each week on your Modern Monetary Theory is debunked each week by the bond market. Do you think that for one minute if the bond market followed your thinking the two year note would be yielding a paltry .3%. If the market had a whiff that the debt ceiling were a crisis waiting to happen, or austerity was to somehow inhibit the United States ability to service it's debt, the yields for both short and long term bonds would be considerably higher. They would not be at historic lows. Those that follow MMT and the Keynesian model never want to take into consideration that the world is very different today than in the 30's . The world then was under a gold standard, and even FDR realized his policies had no chance if the general population were to own gold. He made it illegal to own gold, and all gold was bought up. He knew people would flock to gold, much as they are today. You Cullen, want all the gain with no pain. Many, like myself, know policies have to change and it will hurt. It is much like what Volcker did in the early 80's by causing pain to break the back of inflation with extremely high interest rates. People were hurt, but the rewards were great. It now takes the same strong measures to reverse course, and yes people will be hurt. But we are willing to take the pain for the greater rewards.
    Jun 25, 2011. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock markets are at the "tipping point" of a correction, Nouriel Roubini says, as data from nearly everywhere show a slowdown ahead. “Until two weeks ago, I’d say markets were shrugging off all these concerns," he says, but "we’re going to see the beginning of a correction that’s going to increase volatility and that’s going to increase risk aversion."  [View news story]
    When one preaches doom and gloom, sooner or later he will be right. Not because of superior knowledge, but because of the normal cycles. I do beleive we may be in a short term slowdown, but only because of the uncertainty of what the end of QE2 will bring and not because of any significant slowdown in the emerging markets. My question to Nouriel is if not stocks, then what asset class should one be overweight in? Bonds? It appears to me in the case of the US interest rates have only way to go, up. Commodities? They appear to be at a top, and will only go down with your prediction. Real estate? Maybe, but only if one has a very long term time frame and is very selective. Why buy now, when one can buy cheaper later. If you want to make a name for yourself with the doom and gloom predictions Nouriel, make a prediction on what asset class one should be overweight in. Any idiot can state the market will go down or correct. This is why we stay diversified Nouriel.
    May 28, 2011. 09:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    I still cannot conceive how the world with fiat currencies can ever accept this concept. Unless, you can convince governments and Central Banks to turn over their printing presses. Neither you, nor I, believe that will ever happen. Keynes world operated under drastically different monetary policies with the gold standard than today. Other aspects of his concept included that each member must balance their trade accounts at the end of year or face a penalty. I beleive he even proposed that the creditor nations face a penalty as high as 10%, and too the debtor nation also be charged a penalty. Is it fair to penalize the successful? Will this bring about a war of tarrifs to maintain the balance? I believe the IMF may have been formed at Breton Woods as an alternative to Keynes proposal, but in my mind it has failed miseralbly.
    May 22, 2011. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    Bob,
    I am interested in knowing your opinion on exchange rates. Do you believe they should be fixed, or floating rates? I am of the belief that under Keynes concept of the bancor, each members currency would be a fixed rate of exchange without any market influence and the bancor would be fixed to a set price of gold. Do I understand this correctly?
    May 22, 2011. 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    Maybe, but many beleive with the problems of debt in many European countries that the Euro cannot continue in it's present format. It is already being suggested that these debt laden countries will need to have their old currencies reinstated to raise the needed capital.
    May 21, 2011. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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