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wkl

wkl
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  • Prepare for a Sell-Off When the Debt Deal Is Struck [View article]
    So, you don't give a shit what the Dems position may be?
    Jul 10, 2011. 06:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare for a Sell-Off When the Debt Deal Is Struck [View article]
    I prefer to look at the bond market to signal what will happen. At this time it is telling us 1 of two things. A) a deal will get done before the arbitrary date of Aug. 2, or B) if a deal is not reached, there will not be the problems that the talking heads are preaching. Let's observe the Treasury auctions this week for further signals.
    Jul 10, 2011. 06:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Ryan: Not Qualified to Chair the House Budget Committee [View article]
    Cullen,
    I have never viewed you as being qualified in your field. You call yourself "The Pragmatic Capitalist", but there is very little that is pragmatic about you. All you ever spew out is theory, and I beleive you know little about the theory of which you write. One who is tied to their ideology as you, fail to listen, or to debate the other side of the argument to come to a logical conclusion. To turn around the mess we are in is going to take bold steps, and steps that go against one's theory. Case in point. The late 70's and early 80's when Volcker drastically raised interest rates in a stagnant economy to tame inflation. I remember the pundits, and the mouth pieces at that time, declaring that this move would surely bring on a depression like the 30's. This went against all of your MMT theories, and I am sure if you were around then, you would smear Paul Volcker in the same fashion as you are trying now with Paul Ryan. Your economic view's are not working now Cullen. The results aren't what they should be from theory. You have flooded the world with dollars though stimulus, QE, and QE2, and the dollars just sit on corporate balance sheets, bank balance sheets, and foreign government balance sheets. You, along with our President, have come up with only one solution. Let's raise taxes and move it to the U.S. government's balance sheet. Yea right, that will really put it to work. You Cullen, are neither pragmatic or a capitalist.
    Jul 8, 2011. 07:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Fiscal Austerity Lead to a Depression? [View article]
    There is no liquidity trap. Corporate balance sheets are filled to the brim with cash, and the world is awash in dollars. This is why QE, QE2, and the stimulus package had so little effect. A world flooded with dollars, and leaders without a clue as to how to put it to work. And our idiot president's only response is to tax, and to transfer the dollars to the government's balance sheet.
    The supply siders are coming, the supply siders are coming, yahoo!
    Jul 6, 2011. 07:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great 'Collapse' in Treasury Bonds: Overheated Talk [View article]
    I view the upward move of interest rates in the bond market the last couple of days to be large in a short period of time. With the end of QE2 ending only yesterday, I view your opinion to be somewhat silly and without thought. At least one should wait more than 24 hours to have one question answered. Exactly who now will be the buyers of Treasuries. Cullen, do your homework and see who the buyer's have been since QE2 began. Basically no one but the FED, and before anyone steps up to be the big buyers now Treasury prices will have to fall substantially. Maybe true price discovery will now be found without the Fed, and the only way the Fed can stop it is to once again become the buyer. We have a major problem with out of control debt, higher interest rates are on the way making that debt more expensive, and the only weapon the Fed has left is a pea shooter in a nuclear war.
    Jul 1, 2011. 11:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cut, Cap and Balance = R.I.P. USA [View article]
    Cullen,
    All of this crap that you spew each week on your Modern Monetary Theory is debunked each week by the bond market. Do you think that for one minute if the bond market followed your thinking the two year note would be yielding a paltry .3%. If the market had a whiff that the debt ceiling were a crisis waiting to happen, or austerity was to somehow inhibit the United States ability to service it's debt, the yields for both short and long term bonds would be considerably higher. They would not be at historic lows. Those that follow MMT and the Keynesian model never want to take into consideration that the world is very different today than in the 30's . The world then was under a gold standard, and even FDR realized his policies had no chance if the general population were to own gold. He made it illegal to own gold, and all gold was bought up. He knew people would flock to gold, much as they are today. You Cullen, want all the gain with no pain. Many, like myself, know policies have to change and it will hurt. It is much like what Volcker did in the early 80's by causing pain to break the back of inflation with extremely high interest rates. People were hurt, but the rewards were great. It now takes the same strong measures to reverse course, and yes people will be hurt. But we are willing to take the pain for the greater rewards.
    Jun 25, 2011. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock markets are at the "tipping point" of a correction, Nouriel Roubini says, as data from nearly everywhere show a slowdown ahead. “Until two weeks ago, I’d say markets were shrugging off all these concerns," he says, but "we’re going to see the beginning of a correction that’s going to increase volatility and that’s going to increase risk aversion."  [View news story]
    When one preaches doom and gloom, sooner or later he will be right. Not because of superior knowledge, but because of the normal cycles. I do beleive we may be in a short term slowdown, but only because of the uncertainty of what the end of QE2 will bring and not because of any significant slowdown in the emerging markets. My question to Nouriel is if not stocks, then what asset class should one be overweight in? Bonds? It appears to me in the case of the US interest rates have only way to go, up. Commodities? They appear to be at a top, and will only go down with your prediction. Real estate? Maybe, but only if one has a very long term time frame and is very selective. Why buy now, when one can buy cheaper later. If you want to make a name for yourself with the doom and gloom predictions Nouriel, make a prediction on what asset class one should be overweight in. Any idiot can state the market will go down or correct. This is why we stay diversified Nouriel.
    May 28, 2011. 09:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    I still cannot conceive how the world with fiat currencies can ever accept this concept. Unless, you can convince governments and Central Banks to turn over their printing presses. Neither you, nor I, believe that will ever happen. Keynes world operated under drastically different monetary policies with the gold standard than today. Other aspects of his concept included that each member must balance their trade accounts at the end of year or face a penalty. I beleive he even proposed that the creditor nations face a penalty as high as 10%, and too the debtor nation also be charged a penalty. Is it fair to penalize the successful? Will this bring about a war of tarrifs to maintain the balance? I believe the IMF may have been formed at Breton Woods as an alternative to Keynes proposal, but in my mind it has failed miseralbly.
    May 22, 2011. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    Bob,
    I am interested in knowing your opinion on exchange rates. Do you believe they should be fixed, or floating rates? I am of the belief that under Keynes concept of the bancor, each members currency would be a fixed rate of exchange without any market influence and the bancor would be fixed to a set price of gold. Do I understand this correctly?
    May 22, 2011. 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    Maybe, but many beleive with the problems of debt in many European countries that the Euro cannot continue in it's present format. It is already being suggested that these debt laden countries will need to have their old currencies reinstated to raise the needed capital.
    May 21, 2011. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    Bob,
    Thoughtful comment. But in regards to your final statement concerning Keynes proposal. The problem was, and still remains, with his proposal. Regardless of whether you have a gold standard or a basket of currencies or commodities, the richer nations will always buy up and hold the reserves. Even today as we are not on a gold standard, The USA still holds the largest store of gold, and China, along with India, are presently the largest buyers of bullion. Because all commodities, with the exception of perhaps gold, are used industrially. I believe it to be nonsensical to use commodities as a basket of reserves. And as you pointed out the problems with other currencies, do we really want to navigate those land mines in a basket of currencies as reserves?
    May 21, 2011. 12:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    Coincidence? Maybe, but a view of history shows that the most powerful nation with the most military might has always held the worlds currency. If you are going to destroy the dollar as the worlds reserve currency, I think you will have to first overtake the US in it's power and might. Only a fool would think we are close to this happening.
    May 21, 2011. 10:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury's Geithner warns Congress again with direct details: Inaction on the debt ceiling will drive interest rates up, household wealth down, "catastrophic" defaults on entitlements and service member pay - and a double-dip recession.  [View news story]
    No Karl, I guess I am suggesting nothing. I am ready to give in and allow your experiment to be tried on American society. No more property rights, no more capital gains. Whatever I have will be turned over for the betterment of the general public. How selfish of me to beleive that I should live my life based on my own self interest. After all, with our society's entire wealth in the hands of our trusted officials all ills that we face will surely be solved. Just think! No more killer diseases. All members of society with the same income level. Everyone with a beautiful house on a hill. No crime because all people will have all they need. You are exactly right, the American experience was a failure and really f'd the human race.
    May 15, 2011. 09:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury's Geithner warns Congress again with direct details: Inaction on the debt ceiling will drive interest rates up, household wealth down, "catastrophic" defaults on entitlements and service member pay - and a double-dip recession.  [View news story]
    1776-1913 No income tax or corporate tax. How did we ever survive?
    And yet America had so much to offer the rest of the world, that America was the destination of most immigrants.
    May 15, 2011. 08:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Oil's Big Tax Break [View article]
    Alan,
    You bring up a topic that I find very significant, and makes the tax argument seem irrelevant. Or places it firmly with the charades of politics instead of the argument of tax fairness. That topic is about the large majority of world reserves that are state-owned. The vast majority of oil being produced by the majors are done so in cooperation and partnership with the host countries. Most of the countries that are non-opec need revenue, and production is never based on price, supply, or demand. But rather on the availability to get it out of the ground now. If fairness is the tax argument fine, eliminate the deductions for all corporations. And if this is truly about tax fairness, I expect to see GE in front of these goons soon.
    May 15, 2011. 01:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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