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wkl

wkl
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  • Stock markets are at the "tipping point" of a correction, Nouriel Roubini says, as data from nearly everywhere show a slowdown ahead. “Until two weeks ago, I’d say markets were shrugging off all these concerns," he says, but "we’re going to see the beginning of a correction that’s going to increase volatility and that’s going to increase risk aversion."  [View news story]
    When one preaches doom and gloom, sooner or later he will be right. Not because of superior knowledge, but because of the normal cycles. I do beleive we may be in a short term slowdown, but only because of the uncertainty of what the end of QE2 will bring and not because of any significant slowdown in the emerging markets. My question to Nouriel is if not stocks, then what asset class should one be overweight in? Bonds? It appears to me in the case of the US interest rates have only way to go, up. Commodities? They appear to be at a top, and will only go down with your prediction. Real estate? Maybe, but only if one has a very long term time frame and is very selective. Why buy now, when one can buy cheaper later. If you want to make a name for yourself with the doom and gloom predictions Nouriel, make a prediction on what asset class one should be overweight in. Any idiot can state the market will go down or correct. This is why we stay diversified Nouriel.
    May 28 09:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    I still cannot conceive how the world with fiat currencies can ever accept this concept. Unless, you can convince governments and Central Banks to turn over their printing presses. Neither you, nor I, believe that will ever happen. Keynes world operated under drastically different monetary policies with the gold standard than today. Other aspects of his concept included that each member must balance their trade accounts at the end of year or face a penalty. I beleive he even proposed that the creditor nations face a penalty as high as 10%, and too the debtor nation also be charged a penalty. Is it fair to penalize the successful? Will this bring about a war of tarrifs to maintain the balance? I believe the IMF may have been formed at Breton Woods as an alternative to Keynes proposal, but in my mind it has failed miseralbly.
    May 22 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    Bob,
    I am interested in knowing your opinion on exchange rates. Do you believe they should be fixed, or floating rates? I am of the belief that under Keynes concept of the bancor, each members currency would be a fixed rate of exchange without any market influence and the bancor would be fixed to a set price of gold. Do I understand this correctly?
    May 22 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    Maybe, but many beleive with the problems of debt in many European countries that the Euro cannot continue in it's present format. It is already being suggested that these debt laden countries will need to have their old currencies reinstated to raise the needed capital.
    May 21 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    Bob,
    Thoughtful comment. But in regards to your final statement concerning Keynes proposal. The problem was, and still remains, with his proposal. Regardless of whether you have a gold standard or a basket of currencies or commodities, the richer nations will always buy up and hold the reserves. Even today as we are not on a gold standard, The USA still holds the largest store of gold, and China, along with India, are presently the largest buyers of bullion. Because all commodities, with the exception of perhaps gold, are used industrially. I believe it to be nonsensical to use commodities as a basket of reserves. And as you pointed out the problems with other currencies, do we really want to navigate those land mines in a basket of currencies as reserves?
    May 21 12:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So the dollar might not be the king anymore? Good riddance, James Saft says, as the benefits - lower funding costs, home field in intermediation, better control over our own monetary policy - are mixed blessings at best, and preparing for the reign's end will make a softer landing than waiting until the next currency crisis.  [View news story]
    Coincidence? Maybe, but a view of history shows that the most powerful nation with the most military might has always held the worlds currency. If you are going to destroy the dollar as the worlds reserve currency, I think you will have to first overtake the US in it's power and might. Only a fool would think we are close to this happening.
    May 21 10:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury's Geithner warns Congress again with direct details: Inaction on the debt ceiling will drive interest rates up, household wealth down, "catastrophic" defaults on entitlements and service member pay - and a double-dip recession.  [View news story]
    No Karl, I guess I am suggesting nothing. I am ready to give in and allow your experiment to be tried on American society. No more property rights, no more capital gains. Whatever I have will be turned over for the betterment of the general public. How selfish of me to beleive that I should live my life based on my own self interest. After all, with our society's entire wealth in the hands of our trusted officials all ills that we face will surely be solved. Just think! No more killer diseases. All members of society with the same income level. Everyone with a beautiful house on a hill. No crime because all people will have all they need. You are exactly right, the American experience was a failure and really f'd the human race.
    May 15 09:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury's Geithner warns Congress again with direct details: Inaction on the debt ceiling will drive interest rates up, household wealth down, "catastrophic" defaults on entitlements and service member pay - and a double-dip recession.  [View news story]
    1776-1913 No income tax or corporate tax. How did we ever survive?
    And yet America had so much to offer the rest of the world, that America was the destination of most immigrants.
    May 15 08:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Oil's Big Tax Break [View article]
    Alan,
    You bring up a topic that I find very significant, and makes the tax argument seem irrelevant. Or places it firmly with the charades of politics instead of the argument of tax fairness. That topic is about the large majority of world reserves that are state-owned. The vast majority of oil being produced by the majors are done so in cooperation and partnership with the host countries. Most of the countries that are non-opec need revenue, and production is never based on price, supply, or demand. But rather on the availability to get it out of the ground now. If fairness is the tax argument fine, eliminate the deductions for all corporations. And if this is truly about tax fairness, I expect to see GE in front of these goons soon.
    May 15 01:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury's Geithner warns Congress again with direct details: Inaction on the debt ceiling will drive interest rates up, household wealth down, "catastrophic" defaults on entitlements and service member pay - and a double-dip recession.  [View news story]
    With or without a rise in the debt ceiling, there is no risk of default from our debt obligations and the treasury knows this. At the very least we merely meet our interest obligations and roll the debt over. If the world viewed this as a serious problem in just a few short months, we would already see the demand destruction in our treasury auctions. And by the way, even as bond investors know that QE2 is about to end, we have seen a short rally in bond prices.
    May 14 04:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Oil's Big Tax Break [View article]
    Mr. Loftus,
    With all due respect, I beleive you are just flat out wrong in your assessment of demand based vs supply based. Oil, like any commodity, has a finite supply. Therefore to the producer of the commodity it matters not if it stays in it's natural state, or is drilled or mined and kept stored. To understand this view, all one has to do is to study the present production of natural gas. I know of no one who considers the present production of natural gas to be demand based. It is supply based. And would it not be far better for the consumer, with the depressed price of natural gas, to also be transfered to the production of oil?
    May 14 10:49 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street hopes John Boehner will offer reassurance in his NYC speech tonight that Congress will "negotiate and debate" but "when it comes down to brass tracks, they are going to raise that debt ceiling." Instead, the House Speaker appears set to demand trillions in cuts to get a debt ceiling hike, setting up a collision course with Pres. Obama and Democrats.  [View news story]
    ...And to Hollywood producers with their bullshit propaganda.
    May 9 06:56 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke Gives Wall Street More Time for Market Speculation [View article]
    I guess "Rip Van Ben" just slept through the late 70's & early 80's. He has the thinking that somehow inflation will spur growth. Whereas it appears to me that inflation or the perception of inflation, regardless of the CPI numbers, may be putting the brakes on what momentum we had built from Q4. Ben you are between a rock and a hard place, best to let the economy play out on it's own. The bond vigilantes will no doubt be out to get you. Then, and only then, will the true economic equilibrium be present.
    Apr 28 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does the BLS do algebra? That the CPI for apparel prices fell in March is sure to draw a chuckle from the folks who sell it. Sometimes just jacking prices, but often using a stealthier approach, retailers are passing on cost increases to customers, with the hikes set to grow larger in coming months.  [View news story]
    Max,
    The freeloaders in society still get SS benefits too. This is a prime example of how much business and the working person is taxed to pay benefits to those who contribute nothing to society.
    Apr 23 03:05 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Safe Are These 7 Blue Chip Dividend Yields? [View article]
    It's all about your original investment cost.
    Apr 23 11:14 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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