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duffiedk

duffiedk
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  • Why Apple's Profits Are At Risk [View article]
    After seeing Amazon miss revenue and earnings estimates for their biggest quarter (after the market's close today) and watch Amazon's stock rise rather than fall to about $40 per share, it appears that all Apple needs to do is give away their cash horde and begin selling items at a loss. It appears that gross margins have lost their benefit on Wall Street; in fact that profit margin really gets in the way of increasing sales at all costs. This appears to be a very rewarding strategy for Amazon. However, it may be the only company that is allowed to sell fewer products and actually increase its profits.
    Jan 29 10:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon (VZ) states on its Q4 call it activated 6.2M iPhones in Q4, good for 63% of total smartphone activations (up from 46% in Q3, and 56% in the year-ago period). Big Red had previously disclosed it activated 9.8M smartphones in the quarter. CFO Fran Shammo says about half of the iPhone sales involved the iPhone 5 - that remark comes as UBS points to survey data indicating a mix shift towards older and lower-capacity iPhone models. Apple (AAPL) +0.8%. (AT&T smartphone sales[View news story]
    I recently upgraded from my iPhone 4 to the 5, and sold the old phone for $200 on Craigslist (exactly what I paid for it over two years ago). How many companies sell a device (albeit with subsidies from wireless carriers) that you can sell two years later and get a free upgrade?
    Jan 22 10:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Not A Retirement Stock [View article]
    31,000 open interest calls with strike price of $500 just expired worthless. Shameful that the SEC cannot crack down on the manipulation of the stock price. First they purchase the negative sentiment, then sell short just in time to buy back in on Tuesday (after the holiday). With 25% negative future growth already built into Apple's stock price versus the broader market PE (over 15), let's see what happens to Apple's stock price on Tuesday before earnings are announced on Wednesday.
    Jan 18 04:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Apple's Past To Gain A Better Perception On Its Future [View article]
    When I hear people trash Apple, they rarely state any other stock that they own that has anywhere near the combination of cash, growth and lack of debt that Apple has. I figure they must have all of their investments in a money market and cashing in on that .1% annual return. Over time fundamentals matter, and sentiment changes with FACTS. As a wise old investor said: "Fundamentals don't matter ... until they do." Jan. 23 will be a good time to confirm the fundamentals.
    Jan 17 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is A Trap - But For Bears Or Bulls? [View article]
    Love the graph with Apple's estimates of its earnings vs. actual. While Apple's estimates are always conservative and they always beat them significantly, they tend to reserve the LARGEST BEAT of estimates for their fiscal 1st quarter. Last year, they estimated $9.30 per share and made $13.87 per share. This year Apple estimated $11.75, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Apple earn $15 per share or above. We'll see soon enough.
    Jan 17 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Can Reclaim Its Mojo - And $700 Share Price [View article]
    In your list of suggestions for Apple, I didn't see you mention just how many products Apple could sell if they didn't have that nasty "profit motive". They could change their name to Apple.com and compete with Amazon.com using Amazon's low-priced strategy. They could tell investors they need to invest more in advertising products at a loss in order to gain higher market share... a really good use of that cash horde :). The strategy of increasing revenues with no profit motive or negative profit motive appears to be exactly what Wall Street desires these days. In the meantime, I'll see if Apple stock rises 30% up to the PE ratio of WalMart and Target, it's new low-priced competitors in the retail sector. No company can even aspire to reach Amazon's PE even it they undertake the same strategies.
    Jan 17 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market [View article]
    It will be interesting to see Amazon's sales growth for 2013 after it fully sees it's pricing advantage loss through collecting and remitting sales taxes in all key US states. While there is still convenience for online purchases delivered to your door, there will not be a financial advantage for customers when almost all brick and mortar stores are matching online prices, and have their own internet hubs as well. I see them slowing Amazon's sales growth rate in 2013 fairly significantly. When sales growth slows and costs don't, Amazon's stock has an extremely long way to fall ... IMO.
    Jan 15 02:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
    The fiscal second quarter (i.e.: first calendar quarter) has always been Apple's slowest in terms of sales. If 46MM iPhones is the current estimate for Apple's strongest calendar quarter (i.e.: the most recent calendar quarter ending Dec. 2012) where in the heck did 65MM iPhones estimate for the weakest quarter originate? Most analysts anticipate and Apple results have traditionally reflected about a 20% decline in this coming quarter for iPhone sales (which would be closer to 35MM phones). 65MM sounds like some manipulation is being used to create a short-term financial benefit. It's very hard to determine fact from fiction when their is this much misinformation being spread about Apple.
    Jan 14 08:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hurdles For Apple Longs [View article]
    Can't wait to see the author's support for Amazon's valuation vs. Apple's. When Amazon sells fewer items, they actually increase their earnings, so how's that for margin compression?.
    Jan 10 04:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple's Current Price Is Justified [View article]
    There's a lot of difference between revenue and earnings. If you want to look at some great margins for a retailer, look at AMZN. If you start with negative margins and start losing sales because you have to collect sales taxes, then you lose even more money (kinda like an airline). If you want to attack the valuation of ANY retailer, show me one with a higher margin than Apple and a lower valuation based on PE.
    Dec 17 06:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Apple: Shares could be pressured by a downgrade to Neutral from Citi. The firm says checks indicate Apple has cut its March quarter iPhone 5 orders following a 45%-50% increase in monthly output from October to December. UBS recently said checks suggested the iPhone 5's build rate would fall sharply in the March quarter, while Jefferies claimed iPhone component suppliers saw big order cuts last week. Citi, which started Apple at Buy on Nov. 26, also thinks Samsung is doing very well. Update: Morgan Stanley responds by pointing to encouraging U.S. iPhone/iPad survey data. But a gap has opened up between U.S. and foreign iPhone share trends. [View news story]
    Maybe Citi didn't get the iPhone sales count in China just announced of 2MM units in the first weekend. Maybe the Chinese didn't have to wait in the snow to buy their iPhone. With WMT selling the iPhone for $129 now, Apple's Jan. numbers could exceed $15 in earnings per share (or about $1 billion in earnings, not revenue, every 6 days). I'll stick with those odds.
    Dec 17 06:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Falling Share Price And The Market's Implicit Growth Implications [View article]
    Apple is not Intel and won't be as long as they continue to develop emerging technologies rather than sticking to dying ones. Also, nothing from Apple TV's is factored into the potential growth. China represented the single largest percentage growth of any country out of Apple's 62% of international sales. I'll stick with the company that maintains 70% of the gross profit of all smartphones in the world. Can you even imagine what Apple's sales would be if they gave their products away, at or below cost, like Amazon does? Maybe Apple should consider doing so since the market appears to love companies that give products away for no profit. There's a reason it's called Amazon.com; just remember 2000 - 2001; those PE's can drop really fast unless you have the most loyal customer base on the planet and customer service that is unsurpassed.
    Dec 13 02:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Is Missing Apple's Potential [View article]
    Great article and nice review of historical valuations. I like the focus on the intermediate 12 - 15 month period since any longer view is muted at best. When focusing on a worst case scenario for Apple over that time frame, the company is growing faster than 90% of other retailers and is valued (based on PE's and cash levels) lower than 90% of retailers. Show me another retailer / manufacturer with higher growth percentages in the past or in the future and which has more cash, more repeat customers, less debt, and I'd buy that stock. Yeah, Apple will likely have some margin compression, but when Amazon's margins compress to negative dollars, it's stock skyrockets. Imagine just how many gadgets Apple could sell if they sold each of them at a loss and then didn't make anything on the follow-up purchases (like Amazon does). There's not a cheaper company than Apple out there right now .... by a very long stretch.
    Dec 12 12:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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