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  • Is Gilead Sciences Worth $98? [View article]
    I believe your criticism of Jae is quite undeserved. He admits at the outset of the article that he is not an expert in GILD or the biotechnology industry. (Very few of us are. Those of those who think they are most likely are delusional).

    I have been a subscriber of Jae's Old School Value spreadsheets for over three years now. I find them to be fantastic tools and time-savers. Are they perfect? No. No valuation tool is perfect in every case. Jae, again recognizes this in this article when he points out GILD requires a different approach to valuation than does AAPL, which he wrote about previously.

    Since no valuation method works in all cases, Jae provides not one, but six different valuation methods with his OSV spreadsheets. The valuation methods are not developed by Jae, but by renowned and respected value investors such as Ben Graham, Vitaliy Katsenelson and Bruce Greenwald. Jae continues to modify and improve the spreadsheets. His customer service is first-class. Frankly, I don't know how he does it all - but I'm glad he does.
    Oct 2, 2015. 10:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Auto Parts Suppliers A Better Opportunity Than Auto Manufacturers [View article]
    One other correction: DAN is Dana Corporation, not Danaher.
    Sep 29, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2016: A Breakout Year Of Accelerating Growth Powered By New Products And Opportunities For Vicor [View article]
    I started following Vicor way back in 1991 when it was a five-bagger in one year. Unfortunately, I did not invest in it at the start of this run. It crossed my radar screen because I was an Investor's Daily subscriber, and Vicor (and Patrizio) was highlighted on the back page. Investor's Daily used to highlight one top performing stock each day. They still might do this, but it has been a long time since I have been a subscriber.

    I agree with you. I think Vicor will finally break out of its long sideways pattern and go on to make all-time highs, which is $56 5/8 in October 2000. Obviously, it won't get there overnight, but give it five years and I think we'll get there. Given Vicor's lack of liquidity, we could get there a lot faster than that, depending upon Vicor's growth and expectations for continued growth as things unfold.

    I hope my biggest challenge is going to be tightly holding onto the shares I have already accumulated. I've been a continuous shareholder to various degrees since several months prior to Vicor's factorized power press release, which I think happened way back in 2003. Lately, I've been trading around my position a bit and was fortunate enough to trim the position a bit just prior to and just after their 1Q 2015 EPS report.

    I have attended 5 or 6 annual meetings, back when they were held at the Andover Country Club. I sense that Patrizio's outlook for the company has changed for the better. The statement that he felt the company would grow 3X in 5 years is what caught my attention. We must be coming up on 3 years since he made that statement, so we are definitely behind, his schedule, shareholders' schedule, and the market's schedule. I think he has lost some credibility with his investors, and therein lies the opportunity if the company can indeed deliver. I think they will.
    Aug 16, 2015. 10:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2016: A Breakout Year Of Accelerating Growth Powered By New Products And Opportunities For Vicor [View article]
    It seems as though you are quite knowledgeable on Vicor. How long have you been following the company?
    Aug 14, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corporation - Q2 2015 Earnings Preview [View article]
    Nice job on your EPS estimate of $0.63. Much better than the street consensus!
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Vs. AngloGold: Balance Sheet Differences Key To Futures [View article]
    This might be an over-simplification, so somebody please enlighten me. Newmont sells its Waihi Operations in New Zealand for $101 million and this project produced 132,000 ounces of gold in 2014. This comes to a sale price of $765 per ounce of annual production.

    Newmont buys Cripple Creek & Victor for $820 million. They expect it to produce 400,000 ounces of gold per year on the high side. This come to a purchase price of $2,050 per ounce of annual production.

    Why does it makes sense to do this? I thought the idea was to buy low and sell high...
    Jun 19, 2015. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Atwood Oceanics - One Of The Better Offshore Drillers [View article]
    I think you need to find all instances of "July 2015" in the article and change them to "July 2014". July 2015 is still in the future.
    Apr 1, 2015. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco - Excellent Operational Metrics Mask A Weaker Fleet [View article]
    ESV completed their acquisition of Pride on 05/31/2011. They paid $7.4 billion in total consideration. $4.6 billion, or 62% of it was paid in stock, with ESV's stock price at $53.32/share. The remaining $2.8 billion was paid in cash. Judging from the stock prices of most of the off shore drillers, ESV made this acquisition at least two year prior to the peak of the cycle.

    Smart management teams use their stock as a currency to buy assets when their shares are dear, and buy back their stock with cash when it is cheap. Some may argue that ESV management was stupid to buy Pride for $7.4 billion, but at least they paid for 62% of the transaction with stock priced at $53.32/share. At today's stock price the value of the acquisition would only be $4.87 billion instead.

    What I would like to see ESV management do at this point is spend the money they are saving from the cash dividend reduction on an aggressive share repurchase program. That would take some guts on the part of management, but would likely pay off in spades a year or two down the road.
    Mar 5, 2015. 04:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere's Low-Quality Earnings Spell Trouble For The Dividend [View article]
    I'm not sure if the author is subtracting share repurchases from his calculation of free cash flow or not. Deere has spent $1.67B, $1.59B, $1.53B and $2.7B on share repurchase in the years 2011 through 2014, respectively. Dividends are listed as a higher priority on their list of uses for their cash flow. Therefore, I would expect the dividend to continue to be raised on an annual basis (or at least certainly maintained at the current level). The share repurchase program will probably be reduced rather significantly until the farm equipment market improves.
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Share Buybacks And Value Destruction [View article]
    Excellent article.
    Jan 14, 2015. 11:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore Drillers: Is History A Guide? [View article]
    Are there significantly more operational rigs in the world right now, versus during the last two cycle troughs you spoke of in this article? Is there anything different this time as we enter this down cycle? If there are too many new rigs in the market place right now, perhaps day rates will come down more significantly than in past cycles. It seems like all the offshore drillers have been spending too much money expanding and modernizing their fleets...
    Jan 6, 2015. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere & Company: Stop, Think, And Avoid [View article]
    What option activity are you referring to that you consider to be a bearish indicator?
    Jan 5, 2015. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore Drillers: Is History A Guide? [View article]
    Why is the 25-year average inflation adjusted oil price the relevant metric to use, rather than, say, the 10 year, or 5 year average?
    Jan 3, 2015. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Superconductor: Too Cheap To Ignore With Emerging Energy Grid Security Catalysts [View article]
    Could you provide a link that shows Charles Brandes was the buyer in the stock offering? I have looked and don't see his name anywhere.
    Dec 23, 2014. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corinthian: Five-Bagger Or Value Trap? Part II [View article]
    p2invest, your wife seems like she would be a great person to hire. The company she worked for does not seem like a great investment. Just because your wife has extreme integrity and got let go because of it, does not mean she should change her integrity and ethics. It does indicate she was not working for a good company (or at least for a good boss).

    Usually when you associate yourself (knowingly or unknowingly) with someone who lacks integrity, it ends badly. I have often times invested in public companies that are run by management teams that seem to lack integrity, simply because the stocks seemed cheap enough to already discounted the poor management team. These investments rarely work out as hoped.

    If STRA stock has a 80% chance of "working out" and returning something on the order of 50% over the next 2 to 3 years, and a 20% chance of delivering a loss, I think I like those odds better than COCO, which might have a 20% chance to "working out" and returning 200%, a 60% chance of a 50% return, and a 20% chance of delivering a loss. While the mathematical expected return would show COCO is the better investment, because their management team has pursued questionable business practices in the past, the actual probabilities of expected returns probably need to adjusted down, perhaps substantially. Good management teams have a way of delivering on the best case scenario. Bad management teams have a way of delivering a less-than-optimal case scenario.

    Having said this, I hope COCO goes up, because my son's own it in their uniform gift to minor's accounts - but it is currently being held at a 50% loss. I thought the downside was limited when I bought it at $5!
    Aug 20, 2013. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment