billb

Chart of the Day: Palin on InTrade

I don't disagree with your assessment, however, isn't the wildness of it all really just indicative of a liquidity problem? I mean, what if one big player just wanted out and it was enough to drop the price that far. I'm not sure if you can get volume figures on these trades or not.

Will You Look Back on Today as Your Greatest Missed Opportunity?

Good way of putting it. It's been a rough couple of years for value folks. I think eventually it's going to revert to mean and value will outperform. The million dollar question is when. It's easy to go back and point to a lot of missed opportunities, but I prefer to look ahead. With that said, it might be a good idea for one to dip a toe in the water if you're interested in picking up value. If it goes lower, pick up some more. Of course, I mean this in a general and highly diversified way. If you have a toe in the water and value rockets, you won't feel so bad. :)

Stock Screen: Price Momentum + Fundamentals = Profits

Simple, yet interesting. RS screens usually yields stocks that are "momentum" stocks. These could definitely outperform, but the volatility is usually a bit extreme. In other words, not for the faint of heart.

A Quick BuyWrite ETF Update

Thanks Roger. I noticed the same trend, better returns with less volatility. For better or for worse, it has replaced most of my SPY holdings in ETF portfolios.

More of the Same Numbers for Employment

I'm glad you pinpointed the area of the job losses for us. I just wasn't seeing any headlines that companies are "discriminating" against younger workers. Seems like when the job losses are on the other side of the age scale, it's discrimination. :)

The Recession Began in Q4 '07, Is the End Near?

"A significant decline in economic activity. In the U.S., recession is approximately defined as two successive quarters of falling GDP, as judged by NBER."

I count only 1.

Housing Prices: Bad, but Abating

Way to take the spin off the numbers. Thanks for doing our homework for us!

Tracking Mean Reversion After Bad Months

Interesting. Have you tried the inverse? In other words, take the best performing asset classes for a given month, waited a month and gone long? What tools did you use to test this theory?

Three CEFs Offering Assets on the Cheap

The commentor above makes the same point I wanted to make. Stocks can be "cheap" relative to book value as well, but there is typically a reason for it. I'm not a pure momentum guy or a pure value guy, but when things are cheap, you have to ask yourself why. I wouldn't just look for the cheapest CEF and have at it. Another thing that turns me off from CEFs are the spreads and liquidity issues they typically have.

Realtime Quotes: Mostly Harmless

Hrm. Missed this. Where are real time quotes available on the Google?

Recession Isn't Here Until the Consumer Says So

Another point here, is that the during the last recession / economic downturn the consumer didn't quit spending. In fact, spending increased as using your home as an ATM was in full swing. So even with the consumer confidence and spending at full tilt, we still had negative GDP.

Quant Strategy Broad ETFs

A good article idea ... comparing the performance of the "quant" funds against the major averages.

Realtors, Prepare to Lose Your 6 Percent

It's a bit interesting that at a time when the commission rates will likely fall that real estate agents have had to work harder than they've ever had in the last 10 years. We hired an agent last year to fill a commercial property vacancy and he actually had to do a lot of leg work. I started to feel like he was actually earning his commission (which was not 6%).

The ETF-Squared: It Reallocates For You

I think studies have shown that quarterly is WAY too frequent. As a general rule, the less rebalancing the better. I believe the case was made that you'd mostly be rebalancing into bonds since stocks outperform and more money in bonds = lower return. So by rebalancing into bonds more frequently, your returns are pretty lousy over time.

I have not tried this myself, have only read of it.

Expecting a PPI Shock

One of the things I don't understand is that energy and food are left out because they are "volatile". Why not take a moving average of the PPI with food and energy to establish a trend. I understand that this is lagging, but to me, the only people that benefit from the PPI reading sans food and energy are those that don't eat or buy fuel.