FourBrane's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/6141/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/176711-global-asset-allocation-the-skater-doesn-t-travel-in-a-straight-line?source=feed#comment-793079 793079 www.visualizingeconomi.../
mjperry.blogspot.com/2... and seekingalpha.com/artic....
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We cannot trust your conclusions when there are such large disagreements in estimated world GDP versus US GDP. You must first convince us that your estimates are more reliable than everyone else's.]]> Sun, 06 Dec 2009 15:55:00 -0500 www.visualizingeconomi.../
mjperry.blogspot.com/2... and seekingalpha.com/artic....
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We cannot trust your conclusions when there are such large disagreements in estimated world GDP versus US GDP. You must first convince us that your estimates are more reliable than everyone else's.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176659-the-recovery-is-on-schedule-ecri?source=feed#comment-791925 791925 Sat, 05 Dec 2009 17:44:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/176530-google-s-eric-schmidt-the-fox-promising-to-help-the-chickens?source=feed#comment-791094 791094 I'm worried about the destruction of trusted news sources as our media world explodes into fragments, but I am quite sure that monks felt the same way when they heard about Gutenberg. No one knows what it will be, but there will arise a way for us to get reliable information. It probably won't look like anything being done today so we all need to put on our thinking caps and try to be first to invent it.]]> Fri, 04 Dec 2009 19:36:11 -0500 I'm worried about the destruction of trusted news sources as our media world explodes into fragments, but I am quite sure that monks felt the same way when they heard about Gutenberg. No one knows what it will be, but there will arise a way for us to get reliable information. It probably won't look like anything being done today so we all need to put on our thinking caps and try to be first to invent it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171842-u-s-paper-industry-miracle-or-mirage?source=feed#comment-789651 789651 Fri, 04 Dec 2009 02:23:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/176069-did-sigma-buy-coppergate-as-neither-could-make-it-alone?source=feed#comment-787169 787169 I'm still a stockholder only because the current price ridiculously undervalues the company and the market it serves (where even a dunderhead can make plenty of money). I'm expecting someone to buy Sigma as it's got all the hallmarks of a prime takeover target: lousy management in a terrific market.]]> Wed, 02 Dec 2009 17:18:10 -0500 I'm still a stockholder only because the current price ridiculously undervalues the company and the market it serves (where even a dunderhead can make plenty of money). I'm expecting someone to buy Sigma as it's got all the hallmarks of a prime takeover target: lousy management in a terrific market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164452-recession-is-over-depression-has-just-begun?source=feed#comment-705876 705876 What load of tripe.]]> Tue, 06 Oct 2009 18:00:49 -0400 What load of tripe.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164708-liars-damn-liars-and-averagers-the-wall-street-journal-on-stimulus?source=feed#comment-702960 702960 Sun, 04 Oct 2009 18:49:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141653-jobs-report-better-than-expected?source=feed#comment-535086 535086 Whether you trust employment estimates or not, it is useful to remind yourself that the same people make these estimates each time. As Bespoke's scatter chart clearly shows, employment estimates more often fall on the Polyanna side and the most likely outcome is that reported numbers will be worse than estimated. This makes the difference between estimates this time (doom, doom) and reality (just gloom) quite interesting to anyone trying to figure out whether that vast and complex thing we call an economy is turning...and which way. Everyone making estimates must first make assumptions. We are seeing that the gloomy assumptions which lead to the current estimates didn't fit the facts.
Sure, employment numbers are horrific and will rise for another four months at least. Get over it. That's reality. Our job as investors is to look ahead into the fog trying to figure out where things will be in a year or two. To comment obsessively on how bad things are at the moment serves only to raise adrenaline levels, but not the quality of decisions.]]> Sat, 06 Jun 2009 16:55:20 -0400 Whether you trust employment estimates or not, it is useful to remind yourself that the same people make these estimates each time. As Bespoke's scatter chart clearly shows, employment estimates more often fall on the Polyanna side and the most likely outcome is that reported numbers will be worse than estimated. This makes the difference between estimates this time (doom, doom) and reality (just gloom) quite interesting to anyone trying to figure out whether that vast and complex thing we call an economy is turning...and which way. Everyone making estimates must first make assumptions. We are seeing that the gloomy assumptions which lead to the current estimates didn't fit the facts.
Sure, employment numbers are horrific and will rise for another four months at least. Get over it. That's reality. Our job as investors is to look ahead into the fog trying to figure out where things will be in a year or two. To comment obsessively on how bad things are at the moment serves only to raise adrenaline levels, but not the quality of decisions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131646-cramer-s-stop-trading-the-bears-big-bluff-4-17-09?source=feed#comment-468884 468884
Unemployment numbers don't matter as much as some here seem to think. 90% of the newly-unemployed were barely making a living to begin with as, sadly, the first to go are always the ones who can afford it the least. Fat cats never lay themselves off, so the impact is always disproportionately directed to low-pay jobs. Hence, the economic impact is less than you might think.

The consensus appears to be that we'll be seeing an upturn in the economy by the fourth quarter, even though unemployment won't come down until much later next year. But the unemployed don't buy airplanes, new co-generation units, etc.

A summer pull-back, if seen, will be nothing more than the usual "everyone's-away-at-th... thing that happens every year.]]> Sun, 19 Apr 2009 17:39:50 -0400
Unemployment numbers don't matter as much as some here seem to think. 90% of the newly-unemployed were barely making a living to begin with as, sadly, the first to go are always the ones who can afford it the least. Fat cats never lay themselves off, so the impact is always disproportionately directed to low-pay jobs. Hence, the economic impact is less than you might think.

The consensus appears to be that we'll be seeing an upturn in the economy by the fourth quarter, even though unemployment won't come down until much later next year. But the unemployed don't buy airplanes, new co-generation units, etc.

A summer pull-back, if seen, will be nothing more than the usual "everyone's-away-at-th... thing that happens every year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125970-stewart-vs-cramer-a-cheap-shot?source=feed#comment-428172 428172
Neither of these people are to be taken seriously and yet here I see a whole parade of people defending one or the other.

Everyone take a deep breath and remember Carville's famous guiding principle: IT'S THE COMEDY, STUPID!]]> Mon, 16 Mar 2009 15:57:30 -0400
Neither of these people are to be taken seriously and yet here I see a whole parade of people defending one or the other.

Everyone take a deep breath and remember Carville's famous guiding principle: IT'S THE COMEDY, STUPID!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101787-opec-s-cuts-can-t-fight-global-recession-headwinds?source=feed#comment-290630 290630
Under these conditions, oil may momentarily drop to $30 and diamonds sell for the price of glass. The craziness probably won't end until at least the Japanese carry trade has been totally unwound and probably when most hedge funds are belly up with nothing left to dump.

The market is already pricing as though no one will ever drill for oil again. There are oil service companies selling at PEs below 2 right now. Their market values are below the fully depreciated replacement cost of their equipment...never mind other aspects of their usiness. Tellingly, even these companies can't be snapped up on the cheap because no one can borrow a dime.

It won't last. Without exploration, the price of oil will have to climb as pumping rates slowly decline. Peak oil is real and peak world population is nowhere in site.
]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 04:49:10 -0400
Under these conditions, oil may momentarily drop to $30 and diamonds sell for the price of glass. The craziness probably won't end until at least the Japanese carry trade has been totally unwound and probably when most hedge funds are belly up with nothing left to dump.

The market is already pricing as though no one will ever drill for oil again. There are oil service companies selling at PEs below 2 right now. Their market values are below the fully depreciated replacement cost of their equipment...never mind other aspects of their usiness. Tellingly, even these companies can't be snapped up on the cheap because no one can borrow a dime.

It won't last. Without exploration, the price of oil will have to climb as pumping rates slowly decline. Peak oil is real and peak world population is nowhere in site.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101119-credit-default-swaps-part-two-ice-and-other-exchanges?source=feed#comment-289262 289262 Still, ICE is very thinly traded, so it cannot seem to get a stable price and that makes owning it (as I do) a difficult exercise in fear control. This stock bucks harder than a wild horse and many a rider has recently been thrown off.]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 22:08:46 -0400 Still, ICE is very thinly traded, so it cannot seem to get a stable price and that makes owning it (as I do) a difficult exercise in fear control. This stock bucks harder than a wild horse and many a rider has recently been thrown off.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100465-salesforce-com-pricey-and-coming-down-fast?source=feed#comment-285245 285245 SalesForce is a model that might be attractive to a little company which can't afford the rupees to contract an Indian programmer and has an owner who believes pretty screens can make salesmen sell better (hah-hah-hah-hah). If they are lucky, it's a formula for "getting by," but never getting big.
Some years ago I looked into developing on salesforce's platform, but just couldn't justify the time and effort. Not only was I going to have to originate the product, but I'd have to sell it to. If I can sell, I can host, so what did I need them for?
I wouldn't buy this stock at $5, $2, or $1. I'll sell it all day at $30 though.
]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 14:15:56 -0400 SalesForce is a model that might be attractive to a little company which can't afford the rupees to contract an Indian programmer and has an owner who believes pretty screens can make salesmen sell better (hah-hah-hah-hah). If they are lucky, it's a formula for "getting by," but never getting big.
Some years ago I looked into developing on salesforce's platform, but just couldn't justify the time and effort. Not only was I going to have to originate the product, but I'd have to sell it to. If I can sell, I can host, so what did I need them for?
I wouldn't buy this stock at $5, $2, or $1. I'll sell it all day at $30 though.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98220-world-wrestling-entertainment-frontline-high-yield-dividend-payers?source=feed#comment-274173 274173 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 16:41:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97517-on-board-the-u-s-s-titanic?source=feed#comment-266306 266306 This is an investment. The U.S. will buy tranches of mortgages at fire sale prices which are supported underneath by actual houses sitting on actual land. Furthermore, the vast majority of these mortgages are actually current! The securitized bundles have lost value, not because we "know" how many mortgages are delinquent, but precisely because we do NOT know. This uncertainty poisons the true value. The U.S. Treasury, however, can print money which it does not have to pay back to anyone, so it can afford to hold these mortgages for five or ten or even twenty years until home prices have recovered and the financial system can re-absorb the mortgages. This is as much a "bail out" as Buffet raping Goldman-Sachs when they desperately wanted his $5 billion. There is little chance of a long-term disappearance of housing need so in just a few years this $700 billion investment in U.S. property and U.S. homeowners by the U.S. government will become a particularly profitable deal. In fact, if the U.S. Treasury later turns around and lets us buy pieces of their deal, most of us will be quite eager to buy.]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 15:52:04 -0400 This is an investment. The U.S. will buy tranches of mortgages at fire sale prices which are supported underneath by actual houses sitting on actual land. Furthermore, the vast majority of these mortgages are actually current! The securitized bundles have lost value, not because we "know" how many mortgages are delinquent, but precisely because we do NOT know. This uncertainty poisons the true value. The U.S. Treasury, however, can print money which it does not have to pay back to anyone, so it can afford to hold these mortgages for five or ten or even twenty years until home prices have recovered and the financial system can re-absorb the mortgages. This is as much a "bail out" as Buffet raping Goldman-Sachs when they desperately wanted his $5 billion. There is little chance of a long-term disappearance of housing need so in just a few years this $700 billion investment in U.S. property and U.S. homeowners by the U.S. government will become a particularly profitable deal. In fact, if the U.S. Treasury later turns around and lets us buy pieces of their deal, most of us will be quite eager to buy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94809-now-s-the-time-to-give-your-portfolio-a-hero?source=feed#comment-251594 251594 Thu, 11 Sep 2008 10:56:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91100-forget-100-a-barrel-oil-will-plummet-to-30?source=feed#comment-231439 231439 Fri, 15 Aug 2008 15:17:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90150-oil-vs-the-market-major-changes-expected-this-month?source=feed#comment-227265 227265 Sun, 10 Aug 2008 15:57:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89399-crude-sell-off-solid-entry-point-into-u-s-oil-majors?source=feed#comment-224490 224490 Alberta is indeed concerned about pollution problems surrounding the extraction process and are likely to do several things, all of which will increase the production price. First on the list may be a 30% increase in royalties.
I am long oil-related stocks, and momentarily taking a beating, but I look at the next five years and see no way for oil to remain below $150 per barrel. While I think your 300% margin requirement may be a trifle high (new side scanning techniques make drilling dry holes less likely), E&P is still an intensely risky, capital burning business and it will take oil remaining well above $100/bbl for at least a year before we see some serious new development. The oil exploration industry has to feel comfortable that the high price will still be in force 2-3 years from now when their production starts flowing before they will start shoveling money out the door to find and develop new expensive domestic resources. There are still millions of acres under contract in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) which have not been explored, let alone drilled. Putting more unexplored acres under contract in the Atlantic or Pacific won't result in a single well being drilled until the price per barrel has stayed high for a long time and all of the GOM tracts have been drilled and are producing. The GOM comes first because flowline infrastructure already exists close to every new tract, so it's cheaper to get that oil to market.]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 18:02:00 -0400 Alberta is indeed concerned about pollution problems surrounding the extraction process and are likely to do several things, all of which will increase the production price. First on the list may be a 30% increase in royalties.
I am long oil-related stocks, and momentarily taking a beating, but I look at the next five years and see no way for oil to remain below $150 per barrel. While I think your 300% margin requirement may be a trifle high (new side scanning techniques make drilling dry holes less likely), E&P is still an intensely risky, capital burning business and it will take oil remaining well above $100/bbl for at least a year before we see some serious new development. The oil exploration industry has to feel comfortable that the high price will still be in force 2-3 years from now when their production starts flowing before they will start shoveling money out the door to find and develop new expensive domestic resources. There are still millions of acres under contract in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) which have not been explored, let alone drilled. Putting more unexplored acres under contract in the Atlantic or Pacific won't result in a single well being drilled until the price per barrel has stayed high for a long time and all of the GOM tracts have been drilled and are producing. The GOM comes first because flowline infrastructure already exists close to every new tract, so it's cheaper to get that oil to market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82728-intercontinental-exchange-and-the-new-ice-age?source=feed#comment-194419 194419 Fri, 27 Jun 2008 15:05:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81318-indicator-points-to-higher-gas-prices-and-3-potential-power-plays?source=feed#comment-185527 185527 When crack spreads widen it won't be because of falling demand; it will be solely due to internal industry pressure--you just can't keep producing for peanuts and maintain your equipment properly. So, at some point next year, expect to see spreads widen modestly on their own.
]]> Sat, 14 Jun 2008 11:52:48 -0400 When crack spreads widen it won't be because of falling demand; it will be solely due to internal industry pressure--you just can't keep producing for peanuts and maintain your equipment properly. So, at some point next year, expect to see spreads widen modestly on their own.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80615-sigma-designs-should-fall-on-lost-blu-ray-customer?source=feed#comment-182826 182826 Most of these losses should really be thought of as second-sourcing arrangements which are to be expected as Blu-ray makers scramble to ramp volume. As to consensus, they have always been wrong on this stock. Never close, even once. (Sigma needs to hire someone who can handle a conference call and knows how to drop hints to help these incredibly stupid analysts look better. Hell hath no fury like an analyst with egg on his face.)
At this PE for a company with products in several growth markets, there just is no short case to be made.]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 16:57:05 -0400 Most of these losses should really be thought of as second-sourcing arrangements which are to be expected as Blu-ray makers scramble to ramp volume. As to consensus, they have always been wrong on this stock. Never close, even once. (Sigma needs to hire someone who can handle a conference call and knows how to drop hints to help these incredibly stupid analysts look better. Hell hath no fury like an analyst with egg on his face.)
At this PE for a company with products in several growth markets, there just is no short case to be made.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80562-an-oil-driven-paradigm-shift?source=feed#comment-181901 181901 Sadly, I doubt that there is a easy way out of this one because the elephant in the room is over-population. Demand for oil, food, water, and every other resource is now or will shortly be approaching asymptote.
Buy oil, natgas, uranium, other metals, water rights...and guns.]]> Mon, 09 Jun 2008 12:20:41 -0400 Sadly, I doubt that there is a easy way out of this one because the elephant in the room is over-population. Demand for oil, food, water, and every other resource is now or will shortly be approaching asymptote.
Buy oil, natgas, uranium, other metals, water rights...and guns.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80077-recent-stock-performance-based-on-analyst-ratings?source=feed#comment-179574 179574 It's hardly worth paying attention to since the total difference between worst and best performing analyst deciles appears to be less than 5% and this small difference when the analysts are not even "predicting," they "postdicting."]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 08:49:45 -0400 It's hardly worth paying attention to since the total difference between worst and best performing analyst deciles appears to be less than 5% and this small difference when the analysts are not even "predicting," they "postdicting."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80110-fuel-check?source=feed#comment-179403 179403 I think Jangchup has it right. It's some intermediate profit taking.
Bespoke's charts show us just what we would expect as a commodity becomes hugely more expensive: processors stop storing tons of it. Very few jewelers can afford to keep thousands of pounds of gold laying around waiting for use, but if gold were as cheap as bricks you'd see towering stacks of the stuff in the jeweler's back yard...for convenience. Same with refiners. They pay attention to dollar inventory turns llike anyone else. To fill a tank farm now takes twice as much money. Only a fool would keep up the old habits of filling all his tanks to the max.
]]> Wed, 04 Jun 2008 20:14:09 -0400 I think Jangchup has it right. It's some intermediate profit taking.
Bespoke's charts show us just what we would expect as a commodity becomes hugely more expensive: processors stop storing tons of it. Very few jewelers can afford to keep thousands of pounds of gold laying around waiting for use, but if gold were as cheap as bricks you'd see towering stacks of the stuff in the jeweler's back yard...for convenience. Same with refiners. They pay attention to dollar inventory turns llike anyone else. To fill a tank farm now takes twice as much money. Only a fool would keep up the old habits of filling all his tanks to the max.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79721-china-s-coming-e-tail-renaissance?source=feed#comment-178757 178757 Tue, 03 Jun 2008 16:56:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78814-fitch-skeptical-of-inbev-anheuser-merger-prospect?source=feed#comment-178227 178227 It seems to me that a smart play is to short BUD on this run up since the deal really makes no sense, other than pride in suddenly being number one in America, where growth potential is less than areas where Miller has strength.]]> Mon, 02 Jun 2008 19:05:14 -0400 It seems to me that a smart play is to short BUD on this run up since the deal really makes no sense, other than pride in suddenly being number one in America, where growth potential is less than areas where Miller has strength.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76107-deutsche-treat-cramer-s-lightning-round-5-6-08?source=feed#comment-165136 165136 The only reason to pay any attention to Cramer is because he can occasionally move small stocks, creating buying or shorting opportunities to sheer some fleece off the sheep.]]> Fri, 09 May 2008 16:50:10 -0400 The only reason to pay any attention to Cramer is because he can occasionally move small stocks, creating buying or shorting opportunities to sheer some fleece off the sheep.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74434-herbalife-president-falsified-credentials-barry-minkow?source=feed#comment-159034 159034 ]]> Tue, 29 Apr 2008 22:21:37 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74375-peter-hooper-on-the-economic-outlook?source=feed#comment-158432 158432 Tue, 29 Apr 2008 04:21:05 -0400