FourBrane

Cramer's Stop Trading! The Bears' Big Bluff (4/17/09)

I'm no Cramer fan, but even a stopped clock is right two times a day. The bears here sound too confident and certain that they "know" what's going to happen and that's an alarm bell.

Unemployment numbers don't matter as much as some here seem to think. 90% of the newly-unemployed were barely making a living to begin with as, sadly, the first to go are always the ones who can afford it the least. Fat cats never lay themselves off, so the impact is always disproportionately directed to low-pay jobs. Hence, the economic impact is less than you might think.

The consensus appears to be that we'll be seeing an upturn in the economy by the fourth quarter, even though unemployment won't come down until much later next year. But the unemployed don't buy airplanes, new co-generation units, etc.

A summer pull-back, if seen, will be nothing more than the usual "everyone's-away-at-th... thing that happens every year.