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  • Currency ETFs and Their Correlation with Stock Prices [View article]
    Actually, the overall correlation on the close between FXA and UUP is -0.88. The 95% confidence range is between -0.898 and -0.865.

    High and Low values (all drawn from Yahoo Finance's database covering the period from 2007-03-01 to 2009-12-10) are also strongly negatively correlated in the same range.

    Volume is positively correlated, as might be expected, but very weakly (about 0.42 with a 95% range of 0.36 to 0.48)
    Dec 11 19:23 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
  • Nearly 4 out of 10 Americans Pay No Income Tax  [View article]
    A consumption-based tax is a regressive tax. If your grandmother must pay 10% on the bread and cheese she eats, that will represent a larger proportion of her social security check than the 10% you pay on your once-every-five-years purchase of a yacht.
    The statistics presented in this article simply depict the underlying shame in our current economy: we have become a nation divided into about one-third with all the money and two-thirds who are serfs and peons.
    Dec 10 16:16 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
  • Liars, Damn Liars and Averagers: The Wall Street Journal on Stimulus [View article]
    Socrateazz, tax cuts are not stimulative. It is shocking to hear so many intelligent people pretend that they are. What happens to tax money? The government spends every dime (and more), so taxed money always returns very quickly to the economy. On the other hand, individuals--most especially the wealthy--will generally "invest" large portions of the savings they get from tax cuts. Money they gamble on Wall Street is seldom productive or stimulative. Very little will ever cause a factory to increase output or a farmer to plant more corn. A significant portion winds up in Goldman-Sachs' shiny pockets or is lost into thin air when valuations decline. High stock prices just mean that the factory management rakes in millions in options money, pour their profits back into Wall Street buying some other company's stock so that a few more executives can pull billions out via their options packages. In short, six or seven thousand individuals get showered with cash beyond anyone's wildest need. It's like pouring all the fertilizer and rain on a ten square yards while the other acreage is left to fend for itself. That's not useful stimulation.
    Oct 04 18:49 pm |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment
  • An Oil-Driven Paradigm Shift? [View article]
    The comments found here are a representative cross section of the idea spectrum, running from right wing drill anywhere and to hell with the damn land people to back to moccasins and bone needles conservationists to the dreaming Polyannas who are certain that Amenrican Inventiveness can cure anything. Three blind men discussing the elephant, each describing their particular guess on what it looks like based on trunk, leg and tail.
    Sadly, I doubt that there is a easy way out of this one because the elephant in the room is over-population. Demand for oil, food, water, and every other resource is now or will shortly be approaching asymptote.
    Buy oil, natgas, uranium, other metals, water rights...and guns.
    Jun 09 12:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Recent Stock Performance Based on Analyst Ratings [View article]
    In my experience, analysts upgrade/downgrades typically follow the market rather than lead it. The stock has gone up, causing people on the sidelines to start thinking, "Maybe I should..." Then the analyst recommendation hits and some of those wallflowers decide to dance. The same process happens in reverse with nervous holders wondering if they should sell, then deciding.
    It's hardly worth paying attention to since the total difference between worst and best performing analyst deciles appears to be less than 5% and this small difference when the analysts are not even "predicting," they "postdicting."
    Jun 05 08:49 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Rising Yield Curve Generally Bad For Stock Performance [View article]
    I hope that, in addition to a nice glossy chart, you will also report the correlation coefficient. Just looking at the chart, it appears that there might be a valid negative correlation (possibly enough to account for around 60% of the variation). That's not a sure thing, but it would be interesting, I'm sure.
    Jun 21 04:25 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Why Did the Market Act Like Bernanke Said Something New? [View article]
    The headline writers ascribe selloffs variously to worries about inflation, interest, etc. The journalists (whose portfolios--if they even have them--probably mostly have four digit balances) have to come up with something to say. They can't just write, "The market dropped. We don't know why."
    In this case, I think the market had run up too far, too fast, and everyone knows that the market will sell off in June and July as people leave for vacations. We were all crowded out on the shaky branch with lots of fast profits and all us monkeys decided to jump at the same time.

    As for the silliness about immigration, ...what can one say to a stupid theory like that? There are twelve million reasons that's the dumbest thing I've heard.
    Jun 07 02:44 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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