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Robert Edwards

Robert Edwards
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  • Transocean, Inc. (RIG) Hits A Low Today, Not Seen In Nearly 10 Years [View instapost]
    It will take awhile to bottom for good as the down move in RIG is very entrenched. Worth scalping from long side on dips but not a buy and hold for some time to come likely.
    Sep 18 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean, Inc. (RIG) Hits A Low Today, Not Seen In Nearly 10 Years [View instapost]
    Someone asked me about some fundamental reasons RIG is so cheap, and I answered the following:

    RIG has declining revenues and profits expected over coming year. Current P/E ratio is around 8.5 but next year expected P/E is around 11.

    Also RIG has some older equipment and lots of debt. They are not as bad as some deep water drillers, about average. Company is levered 65 times, whereas newer drillers are levered over 100. That means the debt of RIG is 65 times greater than equity. But cash flow is great and RIG trades at a fraction of book value.

    Sector is out of favor and lots of sellers. These same entities will become buyers when the price gets cheap enough. Where is that price?
    Sep 18 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Break Of $1240 Support In Gold To Get Long Both Gold And Miners [View instapost]
    Here is my response to someone who asked for specific trading recommendations for the coming week. I am repeating the advice here as it could be helpful to others.

    Using a 10 minute time frame only, I can find profitable trades all day, and that is why I am a daytrader. Moving out to a few days or weeks, the timing predictions get very iffy.

    I will try to post information in the next couple weeks as gold searches for a bottom. It is not yet, but probably close. The strategy is to use weakness in the gold metal, to gradually dump losing shares of JDST and DUST on strength, and then to buy some cheap shares of JNUG and NUGT when their prices are the lowest. At some point over the next couple weeks, if we do bottom in gold as planned, just above or below 1200, it would be a good place to completely liquidate all bearish bets (JDST and DUST) in order to be able to start over. At that point, I would recommend buying small pieces of JNUG and NUGT to swing trade for 1-2 day rallies. After hitting 1200 and then popping back above 1250, it might be time to then add some JDST and NUGT into the mix.

    I cannot give you specific advice now since I don't yet know how far gold is going to drop exactly, or at what speed. When I have more information then I will try to pass it on.
    Sep 14 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Break Of $1240 Support In Gold To Get Long Both Gold And Miners [View instapost]
    Looking at the weekly chart of nearby gold, click http://bit.ly/1D2CjKN one will notice how gold acted when it fell to the June 2013 lows below $1200, and again in December 2013. Looking how gold traded in November and December of 2013, I am more convinced than ever that the path to the $1185 retest low will involve at least one, but likely two bounces off of lows before we reach into the $1180s. The first time we should bottom in the $1205 to $1212 area, rally into the $1250s or so and then maybe bounce again off of $1193 before popping back up $25 to $1218, before finally dropping into the $1180s, where a bottom should hold.
    Sep 13 12:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Break Of $1240 Support In Gold To Get Long Both Gold And Miners [View instapost]
    I just looked at the JNUG weekly chart and it has previously had 2 bear markets in the past year. The first one lasted 8 weeks and the next one lasted 11 weeks. The current downdraft has gone on for 9 weeks and if it bottomed in the next couple weeks, would equal the 11 down weeks of the downdraft that ended in June 2014. In late April to June 2014, JNUG fought for 6 weeks to hold support around $16, before finally falling to a low of $13.32 where it bottomed and then started a big 6 week rally.

    Also, check out this article showing the extreme bearish sentiment not seen since the June 2013 bottom, click http://bit.ly/1D2tWit
    Sep 12 11:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Break Of $1240 Support In Gold To Get Long Both Gold And Miners [View instapost]
    Here is a gold forecast service that is predicting somewhat higher prices than we are currently seeing, click http://bit.ly/1uzIdOI

    The average price for October 2014 is supposed to be 1303 with an 80% chance the true average price will be between 1252 and 1354.

    Also we have a great article from Gary Wagner, click http://bit.ly/1qPa1ie Gary mentions the technical factors working on gold and much of that is stops running and bulls giving up when 1265 & 1240 support levels violated. Gold needs to stop falling somewhere and again start building a base to rally from.
    Sep 12 06:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On The Game Plan For Trading The Junior Miners Leveraged ETF (JNUG) [View instapost]
    I studied the daily chart of December Gold a bit more, and noticed how the market has been swinging up and down for several months, making no real progress and frustrating both the bulls and the bears. For the past several months, the low was made on the downward swing, between 2 and 6 days following a high. Friday, September 5, 2014, is the 6th day since the recent high of $1297.60, so we should bounce starting next week, if not this afternoon, after the employment report has been digested.
    Sep 5 03:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating A Game Plan For Trading The Junior Miners Leveraged ETF (JNUG) [View instapost]
    Gold faded pretty badly today but after taking an early dip to try and fill the gap, JNUG worked higher for nearly the entire day until the close. What is most amazing is that JNUG was an underperformer yesterday but a real overachiever today. When an underachiever switches sides and becomes an overachiever, it often lasts for another couple days so I think miners should be well bid for a couple more days. I am holding some JNUG overnight as it is looking more and more like we could get two more days of strength in the miners and get gold closer to $1300, making JNUG pop between $25 & $26 and bearish JDST fall close to $10.

    Because JNUG likes to consolidate for 3 to 4 weeks when switching directions from bullish to bearish, or visa versa, we might flip back and forth for awhile in a range like $20.50 on the downside and $25.50 on the upside. Lefty's teeter/totter approach is still advised as the back and forth should make both sides money if they buy low and sell high.
    Aug 26 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating A Game Plan For Trading The Junior Miners Leveraged ETF (JNUG) [View instapost]
    On yesterday's weakness, the premarket turned out to be the high of the day. Today, the premarket should be the low of the day. Now, depending on what gold does, this pop could be a one day event or it could be more. For now, we can enjoy the ride higher, for at least one day anyway.

    No matter what, this does greatly increase the chances that we will not have to fall to $20.00, even if the ultimate low has not yet been made on the current downtrend.

    Remember yesterday when we had the stopper at 22.36 and moved down to 22.35? That big order was filled. Another stopper appeared at 22.00, where again I got another buy signal. Right in the teeth of the devastation, I was getting buy signals. All during the day yesterday, I was getting buy confirmations and now this morning, you can see why.
    Aug 26 05:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying December Gold Futures $1275 & Lower, JNUG $23.50 & Lower, NUGT 43 & Lower [View instapost]
    When I posted this article is was all jumbled up and when I tried to click edit it would not let me correct it. I cannot post a new article either due to a glitch with SA. Sorry for the inconvenience while technical issues get resolved.
    Aug 22 06:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elliott Wave Theory Advises Caution For Stock Trading The Week Of August 18-22, 2014 [View instapost]
    For a longer term prospective in gold, check out this article from kitco.com, that tells us the long-term secular bull trend in gold may not be over, click http://bit.ly/1BtW1OT
    Aug 18 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe SeaWorld Entertainment, Inc. (SEAS) Should Bottom Today [View instapost]
    You might be right that the stock is not done falling. However, even if the stock continues to work lower, it should swing back and forth, both up and down, and it is quite tradable to buy on extreme weakness and to sell out on short-covering rallies. From this point forward I will be buying every time SEAS makes a new low and will wait for rallies to take profits.

    If I am right, then I get a rally back to $21 and then get out and move on. But if you are correct, that the stock is heading lower, my strategy will really make money because I will buy lower and lower and when SEAS finally bottoms at $15 or $12 or even $9, then the pop back to $21 will make me even more money.

    Management is waking up and taking positive steps that should eventually pay off, IMHO. But again, even if I am wrong, I expect to make lots of money on this stock, scalping from the long side, and if the trend is slowly, slowly dipping lower, the stock won't get away from me and I will be able to make money longer than I would if we went back above $20 and stayed there. In fact, I hope you are correct and the sentiment remains negative and we remain in a downtrend, as that scenario will make me the most money.
    Aug 15 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While Global Unrest & Seasonal Factors Helped Gold Rally The First Week Of August 2014, We Could See Lower Prices Next Week [View instapost]
    I did not mention it in the article, but I am looking for the Euro to bottom in another week, and begin moving higher. This should correspond to a temporary top in the US Dollar and expect the US Dollar to fall for 3 weeks, allowing December Gold to move up from the $1280s to the $1360s over those 3 weeks. Then I expect for the US Dollar to bottom and begin an extended rally possibly lasting for the remainder of the year, putting pressure on gold and making it continue to slip lower.
    Aug 10 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Profits In Groupon (GRPN) Before 8/5/14 Earnings, Or Use Options For Protection [View instapost]
    Found a couple interesting articles. To get a read on the bull side of GPRN, click http://seekingalpha.co...
    In the long haul, this guy might be right, but GPRN may fall post earnings first and then rally.

    I love reading about conspiracy theories, so I love this article, click http://bit.ly/1ltvDxl whether or not the accusations can be proven.
    Aug 4 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper, Equities, Energies, Currencies: Where Are The Markets Heading? [View instapost]
    Just an update on copper. In the article I explained how I thought Sept Copper would trade in a trading range of 3.24 to 3.30 but Sept Copper has been much weaker, falling to as low as 3.2050 overnight before Thursday's FOMC decision. I kept scalping and position trading from the long side, and enjoyed a nice gift rally post announcement and took profits and went flat. Late yesterday and again early today, I began going short copper in the 3.25s and then posted in Stock Talk comments that I was no longer bullish. I have since taken profits on the shorts in the mid 3.24s and mid 3.23s and we now hit the mid 3.22s. I will now step aside and wait for a new signal.

    The weakness that I see in Dr. Copper likely bodes poorly for the stock market. The moment I heard FCX is now exporting copper again from Indonesia, I have been more cautious buying copper. Copper has a lot of surplus supply to work through and it could get worse.

    The
    Jul 31 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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