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Robert Edwards
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Contrarian daytrading technician who specializes in locating high probability short term trades while predicting price movement directions with over 85% accuracy. Most of my trading involves either extremely short term micro scalping of stocks or commodities (using 1 minute bar charts), or swing... More
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  • Approaching Seasonally Bullish Timeframe (August) Could Temporarily Bottom Gold And The Miners

    Gold

    In doing my research, I came across some interesting articles. First, regarding gold, I found an article by Tommy Humphreys that shows a seasonal chart found here. August is the most seasonally strong month there is for gold. Surely it is good for a temporary bottom and short covering rally back to $1135 or higher, if nothing else.

    And even Avi Gilburt is looking for a one month long 4th wave to the upside in gold before a final devastating fifth wave low. His latest article can be found here.

    And on a higher note, Mr. Savage has an article calling for a near-term bottom in gold, click here. All three of these articles are worth the read, IMHO.

    But for a word of caution, the gold mining stocks are wiped out but recently tried to bottom. It is important we see a bullish surge again by Friday of this week, as described by Jeb Handwerger in this article on the Junior Mining Sector, click here. IAMGOLD (NYSE:IAG) has come out with earnings and is down from the recent rally to $1.61, trading in the low $1.30s. This stock needs to hold support at $1.15 and start moving higher right away.

    My view on gold? If $1072 support does not hold, surely $1060, $1050, or $1042 will, and after we bottom, we should rally towards $1135. We only have $30 more risk to the downside and $60 of easy gain potential to the upside. I only like scalping and playing from the long side right now, due to the extreme bearish sentiment and extreme bearish positioning by small speculators, and near neutral positioning by normally short-selling commercials. Someday those bears will have to buy to take off their shorts, before they end up losing their shirts! That day could be much closer than anyone believes. Especially in the miners. Tiho Brkan wrote an article, found here, where he shows that the outperformance of gold vs. the mining stocks, has turned parabolic. With record lows in GDX and GDXJ, there has never been a better time to invest in gold mining stocks than right now!

    To follow along as we buy IAG as well as GLD, GDX, KGC or other mining stocks or Gold futures, or trade crude oil (UWTI and DWTI), natural gas (UGAZ and DGAZ) and other commodities, join us in our private Short Bull Trading Room on WeChat. Just download the free app on your phone or tablet, and then add "bobed1". You can then send me a message so I can invite you into the room. Still plenty of room.

    You can also subscribe to my free weekly newsletter. Send an email to shortbull2020@yahoo.com if interested in subscribing. Again, it is free!

    Disclaimer:

    The thoughts and opinions in this article, along with all STOCKTALK posts made by Robert Edwards, are my own. I am merely giving my interpretation of market moves as I see them. I am sharing what I am doing in my own trading. Sometimes I am correct, while other times I am wrong. They are not trading recommendations, but just another opinion that one may consider as one does their own due diligence.

    Tags: IAG, GLD, GDX, GDXJ
    Aug 06 1:45 AM | Link | Comment!
  • IAMGOLD (IAG) Has Bottomed Just Like I Called It So BUY NOW!!!!!

    Back on July 24, 2015, when IAG had just closed at $1.22, I wrote an article, click here, where I called IAG a fire sale you did not want to miss! Well, just look at the daily chart since then:

    (click to enlarge)

    After calling for a bottom at $1.22 (which happened to be the lowest close ever in the stock both in the past and likely in the future), the next morning we retested the flash crash low of $1.15 as I had predicted (in WeChat trading room) would be required, before rallying. We have only since gone straight up for the past 6 trading days, hitting $1.61 on Friday.

    Anything under $1.80 in IAG is still a fire sale, and you do not want to miss the opportunity to score big in this stock. The above chart shows what happened the last time IAG bottomed at $1.42 in November 2014. We paused briefly under $2, only to surge to $2.50 in just 9 trading days off the bottom. After consolidating for 2 weeks, we popped to $2.82 and ultimately to $3.39. The move from $1.42 to $3.39 took about 11 weeks.

    Now that IAG has bottomed at $1.15 and shot back to hit $1.61, it would appear that the bottom is in, and with the MACD buy signal, we can expect similar moves like we saw last November. So that means, one can expect to see a rally towards the $2.80 to $2.85 area shortly where IAG could pause. Then after falling back to maybe $1.50, expect a second surge towards the $2.20 level. From there, we could fall back to the $1.85 level before moving up towards the $2.50 to $2.75 level, where we will probably face significant resistance.

    Earnings are coming out after the close on Wednesday, August 5, 2015. That could cause IAG to slip back down a few cents, and give those who missed the bottom, another chance to buy. Many of you already missed the $1.15 bottom and it is doubtful you will get another chance to buy much under $1.30 ever again. You may not want to squander your chances to get involved in a stock with the ability to double or triple in value in less than 3 months.

    To follow along as we buy IAG as well as GLD, GDX, KGC or other mining stocks or Gold futures, or trade crude oil (UWTI and DWTI), natural gas (UGAZ and DGAZ) and other commodities, join us in our private Short Bull Trading Room on WeChat. Just download the free app on your phone or tablet, and then add "bobed1". You can then send me a message so I can invite you into the room. Still plenty of room.

    You can also subscribe to my free weekly newsletter. Send an email to shortbull2020@yahoo.com if interested in subscribing. Again, it is free!

    Disclaimer:

    The thoughts and opinions in this article, along with all STOCKTALK posts made by Robert Edwards, are my own. I am merely giving my interpretation of market moves as I see them. I am sharing what I am doing in my own trading. Sometimes I am correct, while other times I am wrong. They are not trading recommendations, but just another opinion that one may consider as one does their own due diligence.

    Tags: IAG
    Aug 01 6:52 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Short Term Price Projections For Gold (GLD) And Crude Oil (UWTI)

    December Gold

    The above daily chart of December Gold futures shows stability above $1080, despite seeing only a couple up closes in the past 16 trading days, and a current drop of 3 days in a row. Until we get a rally to "undo" the current severely oversold condition, further drops should be limited. There is better than a 50/50 chance that we will hold support in the $1065 to $1072 level for now, and should get a rally soon of $80 or more. If we should break lower, it should be a bear trap, and I do not see a drop below $1050 for now. Until we see a move back above $1100, scalping from the long side should be quite profitable if playing the gold futures or GLD.

    I won't post charts of the gold miners or GDX or GDXJ, at they are too depressing, but I do believe that buying IAMGOLD (NYSE:IAG) and Kinross Gold Corp (NYSE:KGC) should do fine if one patiently holds for the next gold rally. The triple leveraged ETFS (NUGT and JNUG) are absolutely toxic and cannot be safely purchased until gold establishes a bottom which it has not yet done.

    September Crude Oil

    Finally September Crude Oil Futures prices have stabilized at the $47 per barrel level. After two up days off the lows, today we saw some profit-taking. However, on near-term dips and possible retest of the lows, expect the bottom to hold. For those not long, buying UWTI when crude oil is trading between $47.60 to $48.50 should work out well. Here is a daily chart of the triple leveraged ETN (NYSEARCA:UWTI):

    (click to enlarge)

    The MACD is giving a buy signal in UWTI, as shown in the above chart. With a rally back towards $54 in crude oil, UWTI should return to prices above $2.20. Despite all the negativity in the media it will not be easy to keep crude oil below $50, let alone $40 or anything lower. Unlike worthless paper gold which has become less prized than a pet rock, crude oil has real intrinsic value due to the fact it remains an indispensable primary energy source, so it should not drop any lower in price than is absolutely necessary. It has taken perfect alignment of the stars to get crude oil back under $50 and we should not remain trading in the $40s for long. Relief for beleaguered bulls should be shortcoming.

    To follow along as we buy IAG as well as GLD, GDX, KGC or other mining stocks or Gold futures, or trade crude oil (UWTI and DWTI), natural gas (UGAZ and DGAZ) and other commodities, join us in our private Short Bull Trading Room on WeChat. Just download the free app on your phone or tablet, and then add "bobed1". You can then send me a message so I can invite you into the room. Still plenty of room.

    You can also subscribe to my free weekly newsletter. Send an email to shortbull2020@yahoo.com if interested in subscribing. Again, it is free!

    Disclaimer:

    The thoughts and opinions in this article, along with all STOCKTALK posts made by Robert Edwards, are my own. I am merely giving my interpretation of market moves as I see them. I am sharing what I am doing in my own trading. Sometimes I am correct, while other times I am wrong. They are not trading recommendations, but just another opinion that one may consider as one does their own due diligence.

    Tags: GLD, UWTI
    Jul 31 3:33 AM | Link | 2 Comments
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