Seeking Alpha
  • Robert Edwards
    Must Read $NUGT Article Click http://seekingalpha.com/p/1dg9i $DUST, $GLD, $GDX
    10/12/13
    Reply (166)
    • shopvac20: Great article, thanks Robert. I have been surprised with how long this down trend has played out. At the moment, I am standing firm w you!
      10/13/13
    • Robert Edwards: Dow opens down 100 Sunday Night, gold opens up $7, trades up 4 to 11 early, will see how thing pan out. Looking good early.
      10/13/13
    • Robert Edwards: I went to cash in my IRAs on Friday and n my margin account, except for a NUGT. Gold related stocks is all I want to own till things settle
      10/13/13
    • Robert Edwards: Hard to believe, but the HUI (unhedged gold company index) was the best thing to own year 2000 to 2009 for a decade. Up 1600% Could repeat
      10/13/13
    • Robert Edwards: HUI is back to about the price is was in 2000 at the bottom, just before the 10 year rise. You heard it here first! Bottom shortly.
      10/13/13
    • bobzic: $NUGT : Great article!
      10/14/13
    • justin.zhou10: got up late, good day everyone
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: Amazing how they said if we closed under 1270 in gold we were going down another $150. Well, if we now move above 1300, damage repaired
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: Already dumped above 40, extra shares bot 3840s in NUGT. Will see where we go today
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX does not like gapping up and wants to at last partially fill the gap if it can....so not that strong so far
      10/14/13
    • Lefty6x6: in dust @ 41.60, out @ 42.35 -- buying nugt @ 39
      10/14/13
    • ptTL9: sold 39.9, will buy on a dip. Good luck to all!
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: as weak as gdx has been it was probably a forgone conclusion it would fill the gap down to 23.05
      10/14/13
    • Lefty6x6: i'm gonna take a bite of gdx if it comes back to 23.05
      10/14/13
    • Lefty6x6: hey Justin...welcome to the party....
      10/14/13
    • glaserdx: put in bid for DUST @42 -- not sure if it goes there again today
      10/14/13
    • justin.zhou10: I got it wrong. Sold nugt 40 and bot back 39.6. Still waiting.
      10/14/13
    • Lefty6x6: I think there is a good shot at makin $ in nugt between 39.15 and 39.50 or so. dust between 42.10 and 42.40 or so. surf the channel guys....
      10/14/13
    • justin.zhou10: Today is quiet, miners weakness is a concern
      10/14/13
    • Lefty6x6: then of course....it makes a larger move and blows that theory out of the water.
      10/14/13
    • Lefty6x6: me thinks its a last move down for the big money to cover and bail out and buy back in low before the big upswing on the resolution news
      10/14/13
    • rodh7858: Lefty: Why would govt resolution be +ve here for NUGT? I have asked this before and Rob has provided his viewpoint. But wanted ur take.
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: Friday low holding in by one penny LOL need to start finding some support, gold rally being squandered by gdx
      10/14/13
    • Lefty6x6: in part cuz anything economically positive ultimately means inflation is coming. gold and miners are a hedge against inflation.
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: gdx did not get the memo, gold is up today and no settlement of shutdown in sight
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: held my noise & bot some nugt 38.23. what a skanky thing NUGT & GDX
      10/14/13
    • ptTL9: is there a way to get a real time quote for Gold Dec 13 (GCZ13.CMX) ? It seems like a very weak bounce in gold on no value, no conviction
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: NUGT can't get going, dumped 38.30. will try again later
      10/14/13
    • rodh7858: Lefty: I have a bad feeling that once govt fiasco is resolved, gold will fall big and bring NUGT down further. U think thats incorrect?
      10/14/13
    • glaserdx: Rod-u didn't ask me but I see 2 scenarios: 1) resolution puts risk trade in play so investors abandon safe assets
      10/14/13
    • Lefty6x6: its possible. nugt is more reflective of the cost that it takes to get gold out of the ground not so much a reflection of price of physical
      10/14/13
    • Lefty6x6: nugt is MINERS...that means their operating costs is a big part of their 'value' in addition to the 'value' of their product
      10/14/13
    • Lefty6x6: many gold miners also mine silver...which has a higher industrial use than gold. overall, I agree w Robert - gold near a bottom and bounce
      10/14/13
    • glaserdx: 2) since gold & NUGT have been weak during fiasco, resolution brings opposite effect. Am undecided--but may get rally rising all boats
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: At kitco, most are saying the resolution is positive for miners. Weakness of shutdown is putting taper off maybe a year, very bullish
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: no taper is more important than what happens to government resolution. When they wake up to no taper, gold, NUGT & GDX boom higher
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: Earlier today, a stopper (big fund seller) stopped rally at 23.12 to 23.14 in GDX. Now stopper at 23.02, does not allow GDX to rally.
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX needs buying to overwhelm the sell orders from stopper and so far, not there. Maybe later. Closing 23.15 or higher would be good news
      10/14/13
    • Lefty6x6: yellen HAS to be bullish for miners -- there is NO WAY taper comes into play with ecomny so fragile going into 2014
      10/14/13
    • rodh7858: Today GDX is at #44 on Buying on Weakness Moneyflow list. It was also on list on Oct 10, 11 but not on any other days in Oct that I checked.
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX now #47 on Buying On Weakness. Trying to bottom in here.
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: Trying to buy NUGT 38.21 Will see if we can bottom in here. Me buying probably means support breaks LOL
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: Not filled, cancelled order Holding 550 trading shares NUGT & 400 Core
      10/14/13
    • justin.zhou10: Unproductive day for me. Done for the day.
      10/14/13
    • Lefty6x6: I eeked out a small gain - was not able to pay attention too much though. tomorrow will be here soon enuff.
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: Tuesdays have been slam down days so I won't be adding on close. Won't b dumping either. Hanging for another day. Lets see if gold can pop
      10/14/13
    • justin.zhou10: I am out to see what Congress will do. GDX is weak beyond imagination. Be careful of further leg down.
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: New low by one tick. Then reversed and closed up a couple ticks. Glad to see buying came in last minute of trading, pulling higher for day
      10/14/13
    • rodh7858: Any reason why Tuesdays are slammed and reason for it to continue?
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: Looking at it closer, looks like we have weak Tuesdays and then we buy into that weakness and rally to a Wednesday high, then fall again.
      10/14/13
    • rodh7858: So u think we will see new lows in NUGT tomorrow?
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: Maybe new low by 1 tick like today. Any weakness if a buy as Wednesday should be higher. Oct 17th approaching could still pop gold big
      10/14/13
    • Robert Edwards: Traded down to 1251 in gold but now $20 higher, this could be bottom looking for. Big pop off bottom. About time if it is the bottom.
      10/15/13
    • rodh7858: Rob: Is this gold crazy move because of GOP or is that noise?
      10/15/13
    • Lefty6x6: THE MORNING POP - ON WAY OR THE OTHER..ALMOST NEVERF FAILS !!
      10/15/13
    • glaserdx: so gold trying to find support but in face of no Fed taper, Yellen appt, weakish $, prospect of debt default --should be rallying strongly
      10/15/13
    • justin.zhou10: What gdx is waiting for? A flat line ....
      10/15/13
    • rodh7858: I know, its driving me nuts!!
      10/15/13
    • justin.zhou10: It reminded me of last Tuesday.
      10/15/13
    • justin.zhou10: It could go either way, but will be a big move
      10/15/13
    • justin.zhou10: Time to make a bet
      10/15/13
    • Robert Edwards: I am traveling and trading from phone. I stopped and cranked up my computer to check on some stuff. Tuesday lows have been a buy each week
      10/15/13
    • Robert Edwards: Then Wednesday high, so I bought gold contracts 1254 & 1253, (low was 1251, but sold out in 1265 area. Did not wait for 1270s. Bot NUGT .
      10/15/13
    • Robert Edwards: Bot NUGT 37.70s, & got GDX today 22.80s, sold out on strength. Trying to add NUGT 38.61 again. Very bullish in here. Impressive turn up
      10/15/13
    • Robert Edwards: 1250 was gold support like I said last week, and 1250s were rejected so I am hopeful bottom is in and we go up no matter what news comes out
      10/15/13
    • Robert Edwards: Dead-lining sideways will cause bears to get scared and start to cover. If we can get back above 13.50 today and close, bottom might be in
      10/15/13
    • Robert Edwards: 23.50 I meant to say in GDX (typo), which should be easy to do. We r at giveaway prices. Buying in CLF & WLT today, why not miners too?
      10/15/13
    • J-Investor: "We may get a 'sell the rumor, buy the news' bounce on the metals.," - Kitco's Hug http://bit.ly/1eopLjJ
      10/15/13
    • glaserdx: Thought provoking perspective-"What Is Obama Doing, Why Is He Doing It And How Might It Impact Gold?" http://seekingalpha.com/p/1dh38
      10/15/13
    • rodh7858: Glaser: I read that article. Sounds like a lot of fear mongering. Do u believe it? I am very upset with the gold slamming on Oct 1 & 11.
      10/15/13
    • glaserdx: Rod: I believe JPM & GS actually behave as described. Would be very surprised Obama positioning to establish a new world reserve currency
      10/15/13
    • rodh7858: Yes def. smells like gold manipulation esp. with size, timing & type of those orders. Is there something we can do to get this investigated?
      10/15/13
    • glaserdx: As far as I know reportedly been many complaints to CFTC which promise investigations that also reportedly never materiaize
      10/15/13
    • glaserdx: bought NUGT 39.7 sold 41.40--may have been too early but after past few weeks don't want to be greedy
      10/15/13
    • Lefty6x6: glaser: taking a couple bux when they are there is never a bad idea.....
      10/15/13
    • rodh7858: Nice job glaser. I think ur trading quite well now. I am not good at trading. I am more of a buy n hold.
      10/15/13
    • vanebfbc: Good to net a few hundred today, but at the same time sad how a government like this makes investors suffer.
      10/15/13
    • glaserdx: Thanks Lefty; Rod, I am still learning. Your B&H positions could well pay off
      10/15/13
    • rodh7858: So gold and silver are not that strong today, but GDX/NUGT is up. Is this reversal/bottom or just short covering?
      10/15/13
    • Robert Edwards: Very good sign GDX wants to close above 23.50. Could be a low for awhile. Lets hope. Should get NUGT to 45 to 46 tomorrow with any luck
      10/15/13
    • Lefty6x6: nugt and dust will do their normal thing today - but if nugt closes above 42, I think Robert is right...45-46 maybe tomorrow or friday
      10/16/13
    • glaserdx: Lefty: are you trading NUGT - DUST today?
      10/16/13
    • rodh7858: Thanks Lefty. Keeping fingers crossed.
      10/16/13
    • rodh7858: Its looking bad for NUGT :-((. Haven't heard from Rob in a while.
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: ABX # 12, GDX # 17 buying on weakness. Bot 40.50 & 39.50 in NUGT. U would think gold would pop on no deal but not so far
      10/16/13
    • rodh7858: Rob: Deal is pretty much forgone conclusion. The stock market is a proof of that.
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: yea, i'm trading nugt and dust today. I think debt deal - at least talk about it - will be positive today. nugt going down further temporary
      10/16/13
    • shopvac20: Rob, looking for your gold optimism
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: I think they r buying time. nothing has to happen today or tomorrow - end of the month maybe. time for hedge funds to position more $
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: # 10 & #11, buying on weakness, GDX & ABX. click http://on.wsj.com/AASMqQ I can't believe the DOW is this strong and gold this weak
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: I think Republican House drag out thru weekend. Lets see what happens then to gold & GDX & NUGT when nothing gets done. Still holding fast
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Bot MCP 5.23 Old favorite. Like to buy under 5.25 Had dilution and downgrade and killed from 7 to 8. MCP was #1 buying on weakness today
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: bond auctions happening, gov't creating $ to use....maybe deal is not as imminent as projected...still think they r just buying time
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: remember: hedge funds have been buying LOW the past 2 weeks....will be taking profits today on this "news" then a sharp decline afterwards
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: bot some GDX on lows today but could not get any traction and dumped it. Watching paint dry. Surely we move later today, hopefully up
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Deal to be announced shortly in Senate/ Gold not selling off which is good. Still not signed by House. That will be the fun part.
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Dumped NUGT 41.40, now only have 450 trading NUGT, 400 core NUGT. Great! We did not sell off on deal announcement
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: NUGT higher than DUST again as it should be LOL. Probably should be buying DUST here but watching for a lower price in DUST, higher in NUGT
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: no sell off sure is positive !
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: marginal new high, did not do much. maybe that was all for today. Still gapped down in GDX and gap still not filled. Could still happen
      10/16/13
    • glaserdx: bougght NUGT 29.86 sold 41.30
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Trying to fill gap. If we can do that, GDX could close 24 today. That would be impressive indeed! Gold 1281.50 stronger on settlement
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Gold sold off before but on settlement, now thinking about no taper making gold rally. Shutdown takes taper off table indefinitely
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: This morning I felt 41.50 should not get violated. When it did, I sold out 400 shares 41.18, and bot 200 @ 40.50 and 200 @ 39.65 reposition
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: I could have bot DUST instead, but easier to dump shares already own and buy them back that start another position.
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: That repositioning trade improved my equity by over $400. Then adding at lows & dumping 41.40 also helped. Waiting was getting on my nerves
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: making good trades today, taking .25 to .50 cat a time in both nugt and dust
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX failed to fill gap. May not do it today. Makes it an inside day down likely, which is bullish for the next day (tomorrow).
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Bot NUGT 40.48, just 100, will buy every 50 cents lower, 100 shares
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: 40.58 (typo) not 40.48. Anyway, hopefully we have a pop left in gold and GDX today
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: ABX is 16, GDX is 20 on Buying on Weakness. Good sign being on this list but it also means gold stocks lower for day, need up days, not down
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: gold is going to close up $4 to $5 so no reason for GDX to be down today. GDX is underperforming. What else is new
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Sold 41.30 NUGT that was bot 40.58. Don't like how slow this thing is moving.
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: gold closes in NY in 8 minutes, 1280 right now. Great if it would close above 1280
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: yes, as suggested this morning: if nugt can close above 42 today, then 45-46 tomorrow or Friday is possible. gold should break 1350 nxt wk
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: bot 100 DUST 39.88. Will add on further DUST weakness, spreading off a little to lock in the gain on NUGT
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Bot another 100 DUST, ave. on 200 DUST is 39.75. Still long 450 NUGT trading, trying to scalp a little
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Gold closed 1282, up 8.80. Sold DUST 40.20 on 100, still have 100 to sell
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: 2 closes in gold back above 1270. Repairs a bit of chart damage, & maybe we work on 1300 again. Out of DUST but will buy again on weakness
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Late today, gold might pop to 1290+ which could fill gap in GDX and get NUGT to 43 maybe or 44
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Made 3 nice day trades in MCP. Last time bot big amount 5.22, sold 5.29. Only 7 cents but did big position. Will buy dips next few days
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: molycorp is a great trade - esp if u can buy big chunks and scalp a few cent move
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Bot NUGT 40.63, will add on weakness every 50 cents
      10/16/13
    • rodh7858: Lefty: If NUGT does not close above $42 then are u expecting it to keep falling for rest of the week?
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: bot 40.23 NUGT, gold is 1281 so no reason for GDX to be this weak. Still buying
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: rod: maybe fall a little, but I think support at the lows earlier this week (38ish) hold. more struggle to hit 45 than definite dwnwrd slide
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: sold NUGT 40.80, still need to sell another 100
      10/16/13
    • ricejudicata: GDX so frustrating today. Congress created more volatility with this half-assed deal, gold recovers, and GDX takes a bath.
      10/16/13
    • rodh7858: Seriously, I am so tired of GDX/NUGT!!
      10/16/13
    • justin.zhou10: I am almost break even from yesterday's dust position. Gold looks like still waiting for the final resolution from Congress,
      10/16/13
    • ricejudicata: Maybe we get some relief with oil prices when the Iranians pretend agree to an arms inspection.
      10/16/13
    • Jeremy49: +1...but our patience should be rewarded soon
      10/16/13
    • justin.zhou10: which I believe will pass a bill in today's late hours. Do not believe gold could hold at 1281 after that.
      10/16/13
    • justin.zhou10: Unfortunately gold's near term trend could still be downward to 1200.
      10/16/13
    • rodh7858: Justin: In other words ur saying, govt fiasco NUGT does down; govt resolution NUGT goes down!! This is what I have been asking all along.
      10/16/13
    • justin.zhou10: Rod, this is what we have been seeing in recent weeks. The weakness of gold totally surprised me even though I tried many times to build
      10/16/13
    • justin.zhou10: bullish positions like last Tuesday and got burnt. After that I was more bearish in general.
      10/16/13
    • glaserdx: justin-do you try to read candlesticks during the trading day?
      10/16/13
    • justin.zhou10: yes, 1 and 5 minutes.
      10/16/13
    • glaserdx: 1 day and 5 minutes or 1 minute and 5 minutes? Can you also tell me what I should be looking for--simple
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Lots of selling in last hour, driving down, but GDX was 22nd on Buying On Weakness list, so buyers are trying to meet the selling.
      10/16/13
    • justin.zhou10: I am not expert. Just short trend in 1 and long one in 5. It helps me to cut loose if trade goes wrong or ride the winning ones.
      10/16/13
    • justin.zhou10: 1 and 5 minutes
      10/16/13
    • justin.zhou10: Also from volumes you could get a sense if trend is with or against you. That is about it.
      10/16/13
    • glaserdx: ok thank you!
      10/16/13
    • rodh7858: Justin: U may be right but I am sticking with Rob's call and sitting on NUGT. Rob - Just to confirm u still see NUGT $50 before $30, right?
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Volatility dropping in gold, looking like 1300 to 1350 is most likely where we r headed. Closing above 1280 today was big. All that noise
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Analysts calling for 1150 is noise. In longterm they may b right (I still don't think so) but short-term 1350 is more likely than 1200
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Scaring small investor away. Goldman Sachs & others calling for weak prices in gold for next 2 yrs is 180 degrees from what they said early
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: this year. In January calling for 1650 to 1850. Now other extreme. I guess I need to do another instablog where I can explain it better
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: I will do an instablog this evening and will start making comments on that thread as this one is getting too long
      10/16/13
    • rodh7858: Right from the home page of CNBC: http://cnb.cx/15JqJod
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: rod: NUGT/DUST represents MINERS...and they have production costs (oil being one of those costs) GDX / GLD is the PHYSICAL product - (cont)
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: the price / value of the product once its out of the ground and on the market (1300 or 1150) really does not correlate directly to (cont)
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: NUGT / DUST. somewhat, yes - but not exclusively. the value of your product could go up..but if ur production costs increase as well (cont)
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: posted new article, click http://seekingalpha.com/p/1dpyy will now start typing on the new thread as this comment string is getting long
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: then you as a company (in this case basket of companies) that make the product don't automatically increase in value. (cont)
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: Hey Rod, did I not tell you the same thing? If u drop into the announcement, you rally afterwards.
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: dont over connect NUGT/DUST with the price of gold as a product. MINERS correlate 1st with prod costs (oil for example) demand 2nd (end)
      10/16/13
    • Lefty6x6: edit: not GDX as physical -- obviously GDX is MINERS as well. got ahead of myself in thought.
      10/16/13
    • rodh7858: Lefty: I understand it is not a single variable equation. There are multiple factors. Oil has been steadily falling over the past month.
      10/16/13
    • rodh7858: By any measure miners are way oversold and that is why this ordeal has been exasperating.
      10/16/13
    • rodh7858: We can go over to the new stocktalk that Rob created.
      10/16/13
    • J-Investor: I continue to hold on my NUGT shares for the immediate term.
      10/16/13
    • Robert Edwards: WE have consolidation trade today and Monday and then should boom higher again. All fast spike moves down are great buys. Great scalping
      10/18/13
    • Robert Edwards: Gold has been weak all day so far. Gold manipulated by seller who drove down just as GDX was opening. Gold should pop sometime today
      10/18/13