Seeking Alpha
  • Robert Edwards
    Odds still favor a bullish bias for $NUGT, $GDX, $NEM, $GLD but not $DUST, click http://seekingalpha.com/p/1guzt
    12/5/13
    Reply (175)
    • Rubenov: Likely to get hit tomorrow after another "strong" jobs report and more "taper talk"
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: The downward move is so highly anticipated, and appears to be such a sure thing, I see a high probability of the opposite occurring. Caution
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: The drop from the low 1300s to the low 1200s in gold, already factors in a lot of bearishness. Downside getting overdone.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: The stock market is not worried about a December taper, only gold. I think the stock market has more to worry about a taper than gold does.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Congress has not come up with a budget deal yet & extension of debt ceiling. How can a taper occur in Dec with pos govt shutdown looming?
      12/5/13
    • melanielshop: Unemployment claims and GDP numbers improved.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: Lockhart's comments, as usual are strong on taper talk. I'm with you Robert on that we won't yet. Way too many bigger issues as you mention
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: Time for re-rally over 1260 and show these bears the Gold rally is for real. We aren't staying in this area for long.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: Even if the FED surprises us, I expect Gold to go bullish soon - perhaps after some pressure down first, the re-launch.
      12/5/13
    • rodh7858: Rob: Are u holding $NUGT overnight or scalping/daytrading in & out?
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: rodh, I am holding NUGT overnight, but will daytrade when I see opportunities. When NEM failed to close above 24 yesterday, sold out all
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: and bot NEM back on today's lows. Felt comfortable if I sold 24 could buy back lower and got a gift to buy below 23.20 this morning.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: RE - Surprised you sold out of all NEM so quickly. The stock went ex-dividend this week which probably held it back a little yesterday.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: It appears that it has been trading in line with expectations against Gold and NUGT so far. I'm still holding, but watching fundamentals
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: Gold probably will stay in range. Will wait what labor report would be tomorrow.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: If I do exit, I may try to do so on the sale of call options that will get exercised to raise a little added premium
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Grow, the NEM sale was just an overnight scalp. I felt extremely comfortable that I would b able to buy back at least a penny below 24.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: I did virtually no daytrading last week and a half and decided to be more aggressive as gold and gdx delays a rally. Lowering breakeven
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: I planned to buy back NEM on close (daytrade) but when gold weakened late in day and aftermarket, decided to wait till today to buy back.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: Got it. Looks like that was a good play. Didn't take advantage of the opportunity myself. But, also didn't want to miss if rallied.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: My NEM shares are a little over 20% of my entire bullish exposure right now on miners and metal, so not a tragedy if must buyback higher
      12/5/13
    • davePx: Yes got caught yesterday complacently watching instead of acting on opportunity...kicking myself today...D
      12/5/13
    • davePx: But watching!,,
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Picking a bottom is extremely difficult and my record on that is poor as one would expect as the market does a lot of headfakes
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: however, buying or selling on close for overnight trade, the percentages of guessing right are extremely high. I study after close & decide
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: I saw the October 15th & 16th pattern and decided we would have some retracement today helped by gold's rejection of 1250 area yesterday
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX hanging in here pretty good with gold Feb gold 1216.
      12/5/13
    • newbie872: C'mon GDX - give it up...gold is going to be free in a couple more months, I want a DUSTy ride! Surprised GDX is holding so well!
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: Gold has strong support around 1210, if it could hold tomorrow, rally could come.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: ABX has a better chart than NEM and if I did not get back in today at a great price on NEM, I was considering switching to ABX
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: gold is acting like a strong number has already been announced on jobs. I wonder if some information was leaked???!!!
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: ABX is much resilient, it is down more percentage wise, but has lower cost.
      12/5/13
    • ystock15: newbie872 your trash dollars will be free, not gold. Remember that, once China picks it up, it's done deal.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: good about ABX is they have already done the stock dilution thing to raise cash, while others might do so in the future still
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Move from 1216 to 1222 has pushed GDX to near highs of day. GDX acts like it wants to go up. Maybe the bears are ready to cash out a little
      12/5/13
    • metalhead: Overly zealous bears take note: GDX outperforming or at least staying even with GLD for a second day would be confirmation of trend change.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Buying on weakness today, at 10:47 a.m., shows ABX # 43 and NUGT # 99 out of 100. No other gold stock made the list right now
      12/5/13
    • davePx: I will through this out there again...as the market get nervous about tapering and debt ceiling etc. investors will need a place to park
      12/5/13
    • davePx: Their investments...gold perception is that it is close to bottom ...stocks perception is that we are topping....this is a factor I think
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: With the stock market so high and frothy, it is truly remarkable as DavePx mentions, that stock traders r not cashing out & buying cheap GDX
      12/5/13
    • metalhead: Robert- the majority can never all be right at the same time. They'll cling to their FB and LNKD riding them down to zero in some cases.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: Perhaps the high volumes on NUGT, NEM, GDX suggest this is starting to happen, but enough bears out there so far to continue to hold prices
      12/5/13
    • davePx: This pattern of slow step up's feels different than yesterday's sharp jumps, more measured steps...
      12/5/13
    • davePx: Ha ...chech this out... http://bit.ly/1cZBZO8
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: Dave, what do you see as the effects of hedging increases by the miners? Improved profitability when Gold prices are at lows?
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Gold companies have a terrible record in regards to hedging. They tend to start hedging at the bottom and don't hedge at high price levels
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Great contrarian sign that we r near lows if miners are talking abut hedging.
      12/5/13
    • vanebfbc: NUGT seems to be holding well. It might even go green later today.
      12/5/13
    • davePx: I am thinking the flow of gold based ETF's ...outflows wills less and eventually go to inflow...
      12/5/13
    • davePx: Need to check spelling ...outflows will lessen
      12/5/13
    • davePx: I have been watching TZA and right now as it goes down NUGT goes down. As it goes up NUGT goes up....(TZA is bearish russel2000)
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: Quick trip in and out NUGT, small gains better than loss. Now things are becoming interesting.
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: gdx kind of underperforming now.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: had a feeling I could sell some NUGT 27 for small daytrade back to 26.25 but looked pretty good on the highs. NEM sure got weak now.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX opened 20.64, made new 5 yr low by a tick, now trading above opening tick virtually all day. Closing above opening price is important
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Picked up some NEM on that dip @ 23.17. Expect gold to be strong overnight & into early premarket tomorrow as shorts should b nervous,
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Expect to see some short-covering prior to the report. May not get it but one would expect a little of it
      12/5/13
    • MikeNeedsHelp: RE: I'm glad you asked. I THOUGHT the numbers came out tomorrow but everybody is reporting this am for Nov. 30...
      12/5/13
    • MikeNeedsHelp: ...Jobless claims decreased 23,000 to 298,000 in the week ended Nov. 30, the Labor Department said today in Washington.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: I see Vantage Point is calling for an Up Friday. Suits me just fine. Click http://bit.ly/1coePTw They have been quite bearish
      12/5/13
    • melanielshop: Made profits for the day. Out of NUGT for now
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: We got some strong numbers yesterday and the gold markets rallied. As time goes on, gold will have to rally even on strong numbers.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Tapering fears have made gold drop from $1800 to $1200 already. When tapering actually starts, gold should go up big as bears out of bullets
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Crying wolf 100 times makes gold drop 100 times. Actual wolf may turn out not to be so scary and we pop $200 back up.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: This reminds me of Greece. Remember when the stock market was falling on Greece fears. No one talks about Greece anymore, what happened?
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: I am now more scared of not tapering than tapering. Not tapering means they prolong the agony some more. I am ready to drink the koolaid
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: I am sure the actual tapering koolaid is not bad, probably very sweet. When the market rallies on actual tapering they will say, "Well we r
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: rallying because traders realize that tapering is just a small reduction of stimulus. THE STIMULUS STILL CONTINUES AD FINITUM. Oh. Really?
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: That is "ad infinitum", to infinity without end, or at least for a couple years while they ssslllloowwwlyyy wind down tapering
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Gold just closed a hair under 1232 which is at least above 1225. We also did not take out yesterday's low, a small consolation.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Expecting a small late day rally that hopefully carries gold into the 1240s or higher overnight.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Now gold needs to become Oct 17th tomorrow on the charts, rallying $40+ and we will be all set. GDX should rally 8-10% on such a move.
      12/5/13
    • Brian58: here she goes
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: must have been strong data released at 2:00 p.m. as gold fell and kicked miners back down.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: DXY (US$ Index) has fallen to 20.23, low of the day. Market Watch says this is because of expectation that taper will be delayed.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: Counter to this, 20+ Treasury yields are up (TBT), which indicates expectation of taper. Lots of movement and positioning to try to figure
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: the FEDs move. Surprised to see Gold weak this afternoon as I've seen nothing that would indicate it should decline.
      12/5/13
    • shopvac20: I am hanging on to hope of a gold run, though this has gone on for several weeks its starting to beat me down
      12/5/13
    • tanriseven: http://bit.ly/1coqvpt
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: tanris - Yes, watching the chart similarities to Oct. So far, looking similar.
      12/5/13
    • rodh7858: tanriseven - What is the similarity, I don't see it? Can u pls elaborate? Maybe I'm missing something.
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: looks like bears regain the control, I am moving to tomorrow. Still day trading. The ADP limited the gold up potential. But you never know
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: if labor number comes out just the contrary. Let us game on.
      12/5/13
    • glaserdx: strong NFP # = closer to Fed unemploymnt target = closer to taper = gold selloff...?
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: gold still could go down a bit depends on labor number. Waiting for Gofo to become negative to seriously long miners. Not there yet,
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: but should be very close. But I would only expect 30-50% up for nugt if that happens.
      12/5/13
    • davePx: A 39 to 44 kind of expection
      12/5/13
    • davePx: Expextion!
      12/5/13
    • davePx: Expectation! Darn this ipad keeps put out words that do not exist
      12/5/13
    • rodh7858: Dave/Grow/Rob: Are u guys holding $NUGT overnight into tomorrow? I am feeling quite nervous here. Pls do share ur thoughts.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: Rod - Yes on my part. Holding NUGT and NEM overnight.
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: Rod, tomorrow could feel like yesterday, there could be test of the low of gold and then all depend on the labor number. Could have an
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: oversold bounce if it misses. I do not believe gold will go below 1200 before Fed meeting.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: My view, regardless of the news is, Gold has small downside from here and any push downwards is likely to result in a rally upwards.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: I would rather be in for the big rally when it comes, than be out afraid of small downside. Do keep in mind there are some people calling
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: for Gold at 850. But I don't buy it, just as I don't buy the folks saying DOW 3,000.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: I am holding NEM & GDX till the cows come in. I am holding NUGT thru 1180 gold and probably down to 1155 in gold, at least to 20 or 19.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: I am definitely not worried about one employment report coming out tomorrow. Fed will base taper decision on much more than that.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: I am staying long thru Dec 18th and see if there is a taper and enjoy the bullish reaction if there is no taper.
      12/5/13
    • glaserdx: one emp rpt won't move the Fed but a strong NFP rpt gets it 1 step closer to taper and market sells the rumour and buys the news
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: a few thousand jobs up or down on one employment report .... give me a break. budget impasse in congress is much bigger deal
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX from $66.11 to $20.56 is drop of 68.9 %. Surely we r within a percent or two from the bottom. i will hold thru this generational low
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Media tells u it is taper fears pushing down gold. It is no such thing IMhO. It is sell orders, funds r extremely short & will short till
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: forced to cover. Shorts r on borrowed time, selling into a hole hoping to make a bigger hole.I don't like where I got in long but I would
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: give my right arm to buy here if I was not already heavily long.
      12/5/13
    • metalhead: one problem for taper bulls ... if payrolls come in hot, bond yields soar, force Fed to back off taper ... negative feedback loop.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: Bond yields already moving too high in the 10+ Year Treasuries and that affects mortgage rates. We saw earlier this year that is not good.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: FED is trying to address this with comments on easy money and no interest rate increases, but market is overpricing bond yield in my opinion
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: Treasures telling Fed will taper. Market and dollars say otherwise. Normally we trust bond market. I guess this is the main reason gold
      12/5/13
    • Normmax: I already learned a lot from riding with you guys. I am too deep in nugt, but there is always a hope.
      12/5/13
    • Normmax: Hopefully market fundamentals eventually wins over the few empowered players.
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: is under pressure along with the soft physical demand. But never know gold could just bounce like in Oct. for oversold or manipulation.
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: I believe physical demand is quite strong and will get stronger.ETF selling of GLD has hurt more than anything and that could change quickly
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: Who is to say they don't start buying GLD instead of selling it. That could start moving the other way at any moment. If 1180 and/or 1200
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: holds in gold, they might start buying GLD and that would b a game-changer and start a big rally in a hurry. Banks scaring people out of GLD
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: Rob, GLD lost 30 tonnes in 3 weeks and India demand was choked. China could not help it by itself. Unless West starts buying or sells out
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: those ETFs, the real turning point is hard to predict. But 1200 is the miners bottom line, bulls will take a stand around this level.
      12/5/13
    • tanriseven: At this point even the most bears are looking for a jump tomorrow and may be the gold to $1250
      12/5/13
    • rodh7858: Guys I just remembered. Last time when we collaborated on $NUGT back in Oct we had a very stressful time but finally came out ahead.
      12/5/13
    • rodh7858: The turning point was when I went ahead and bought 2 oz of physical bullion (RCM) with gold around $1260. Do I need to do it again? :-))
      12/5/13
    • rodh7858: This was only 2nd time in my life that I bought physical gold.
      12/5/13
    • shopvac20: Great, I just bought 20 oz of silver too :)
      12/5/13
    • shopvac20: where did you buy your gold and what price did you get ?
      12/5/13
    • justin.zhou10: Wow, a gold/silver bug forum. Gold bashers be aware :).
      12/5/13
    • 8665091: I'm just getting absolutely crushed.
      12/5/13
    • 8665091: I'm holding onto a ton of GDX and GDXJ. It's hitting new low after new low. I bought in two weeks ago thinking then it was the bottom.
      12/5/13
    • shopvac20: you are in good company here... there are several wounded bulls here :(
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: 866... - Seems to me a good time to think about time horizon for the dollars and risk management. If you have a short time horizon, you'll
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: have to think about whether you can stomach the "potential" for more losses in order to capture the gains.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: Short time horizon might mean you move a portion to cash sooner to limit losses rather than take the opportunity that risk over time offers.
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: If you can stay with the investment over time, and you are concerned about the downside and want to limit risk, think about making an
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: investment in puts that would offset dollar for dollar any losses on current positions. Then, if you get the big rally soon, at most you
      12/5/13
    • Growfast: only lose what investment you made in the hedging bet - or some portion if you get out before it goes to zero. Not advice; just for thought
      12/5/13
    • Robert Edwards: The employment number came out strong and we dipped and recovered because it was basically already factored in. Stock market no taper fear
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: If stock market does not fear a taper, gold need not fear either. If the stock market can stand on its own feet why not gold & miners?
      12/6/13
    • joe bastoni: figured i would see if i can bring some "begineers" luck to the situation, thank you robert and the rest for all the information
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: Now we just need the bears to wake up and realize we r not going lower and they put their buy orders in to take profits and boom time!
      12/6/13
    • Growfast: Read an article last night stating that GDX has significant inflows of capital lately. Will see if I can find it. Appears Gold is running
      12/6/13
    • joe bastoni: I am a new follower of robert, after many weeks of sideline viewing i decided it was time to play, have been averaging down $NUGT since 28
      12/6/13
    • Growfast: out of things that can knock it down and now waiting for the slightest driver to pop up to move to the upside.
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: Welcome Joe B, the more the merrier. Now that the biggest threat of December has passed (jobs report), should get easier going up from here
      12/6/13
    • njtoms: Job Rate Falls to 7%. Will see if RE's "Taper Doesn't Matter, Gold Goes Up 100." Think Bob might me wrong again.
      12/6/13
    • melanielshop: Jobless rate down to 7%, payroll gains 203,000
      12/6/13
    • MikeNeedsHelp: 203K & 7.0: Going to be a tough day for NUGT.
      12/6/13
    • metalhead: If GDX can hold above 20.57 or so today, then we just need a follow through day next week and rally can begin at least short term.
      12/6/13
    • metalhead: its the reaction to the news, not the news itself that matters. So far gold saying this news not enough to warrant more downside
      12/6/13
    • metalhead: shorts covering here, realizing further downside is limited, however need to see follow through to the upside today or at least hold lows
      12/6/13
    • gonetouring: To me it look like the trigger-happy sell algos got thwarted by some v. strong buying at resistance $1215. Are we safe from a plunge below
      12/6/13
    • gonetouring: $1200, is will this be saved for one weeknight at 2am? Or perhaps the dirty work is over .. for now? Fingers crossed (in NUGT from $31)
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: Also, there is probably less than a 10 or maybe 5% chance that we taper in December so if I am right, nice rally in our future as well
      12/6/13
    • 8665091: thank you growfast. i wrote some covered calls on GDX to hedge. didn't capture much premium since those expire in a few weeks
      12/6/13
    • joe bastoni: and excuse the horrible pun on the word beginer
      12/6/13
    • MikeNeedsHelp: Perplexing as pre-market protagonists pop paradigms. Good article that supports RE's line of thinking. http://seekingalpha.com/a/14buz
      12/6/13
    • bobzic: $NUGT : Sorry njtoms but i think that Robert is right. We will see.
      12/6/13
    • shopvac20: pre market has been interesting to watch .. new released, gold drops to 1218ish, then pops to 1240 ish, now slowly falling, need strength
      12/6/13
    • davePx: Has everyone seen this article http://bit.ly/1gJXSUl
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: Hey Mikes N H, that is a great article & chart from Hebba Investments. I already follow him. Taper is good for gold indeed.
      12/6/13
    • Growfast: Thanks, Dave. Article on money inflows to long ETFs. http://yhoo.it/IOBCwS
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: The chart showing taper vs. no taper, you can hardly see any difference as money grows in both scenarios, just slightly slower under taper.
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: Great article Grow! The gutwrenching part too. We know all about that for real. Only thing I did today: sold 1/2 NEM 23.53, bot 23.13
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: many gold bears are likely holding out still, thinking we might get a selloff still for them to cover in the 1220s or lower. But if we stay
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: above 1225 to 1230 the rest of the day, they should get nervous and begin to panic late in the day and we could have big surge up near close
      12/6/13
    • johnpsychdoc: Managed to drop cost basis of NUGT from 42 to 34 past week. Any advice if funds are available to try to reduce cost basis by buying on dips?
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX selling off trying to fill gap made on opening. If we can keep a small gap that would be very bullish. Large bid numbers today on GDX
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: If gold closed above 1260 then good time to add to GDX/NUGT as bottom confirmed. Otherwise, waiting for further dip to add on weakness
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: No buying on weakness in gold stocks as they are up today. Selling on strength, NEM is # 17. NEM weaker than GDX so sell & buy on weakness
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: When u open strong, usually safe to sell some & buy back as gap partially or fully filled. Opening lower, can buy for move back 2 unchanged
      12/6/13
    • Growfast: With Gold holding steady in the mid 1232-35 range, I think it is whispering to shorts to close positions. Last chance. Next message loud.
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: Critical we get a positive gold close at 1:30 NY time, and then could be big shortcovering rally late
      12/6/13
    • njtoms: Mr. Edward how is "GDX selling off" / "that would be very bullish". Come Again? Or are you going to Block my Question. Btw, need an answer.
      12/6/13
    • johnpsychdoc: Ok. understood and thanks again . Will add on any significant pullbacks to add shares on weakness. John
      12/6/13
    • glaserdx: njtoms - you could at least demonstrate the courtesy of spelling Robert Edwards name correctly while you ask your hostile quesions
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX sold off from the higher opening and although NEM and ABX filled the gap, GDX kept a gap which means it gapped up for the day. Leaving
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: Leaving a gap is more bullish than had we filled the gap. It means the shorts who sold on the close yesterday had to cover today at a loss
      12/6/13
    • Robert Edwards: Just posted a new article and started a new thread. Click http://seekingalpha.com/p/1gyhx
      12/6/13