Seeking Alpha
  • Robert Edwards
    Back To Work Building Base For $NUGT, $GDX, $GLD, $NEM, But Not $DUST. New article: http://seekingalpha.com/p/1hr8n
    12/18/13
    Reply (326)
    • shopvac20: Thanks for the article, was surprised and enthusiasm took a hit when the weakness after what stemmed to be the start of stability.
      12/18/13
    • shopvac20: interesting article from Forbes http://onforb.es/JJZQcD
      12/18/13
    • davePx: Thanks ShopVac...maybe the sideways action provides the opportunity we need to bring our cost basis down...
      12/19/13
    • sszaheer: Added few hundred morning 25.03.Gold might hit 1180 but eventually it will be up good opportunity to accumulate as discussed.Good Luck bulls
      12/19/13
    • njtoms: Most Likely the Insta-Blog will Lose some Members today.
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Robert, Without liquidation of short positions now how bad do you think this will get
      12/19/13
    • davePx: I see today as high volatility ...good for day trades
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: Will be interesting to see if the bull picks up steam off these levels now or whether we have to do more work ahead here. Time for some new
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: positioning.
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: Looking for 1500... These markets are over-reacting to something that was already priced in. Gold "should" move right back to work it was
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: doing before. USD up against currencies offering temporary pressure
      12/19/13
    • davePx: We are just at the June low...could go either way ....
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Depends on equities and the direction of the US dollar
      12/19/13
    • njtoms: Surprised R.E. Hasn't made a comment so far Today. GDX Closing in on 20.50. The 52 week low.
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Lots of accumulation on weakness
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Well everyone wants a deal ...let's hope the crowd got enough bold out of this stone ...
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Sorry blood ....
      12/19/13
    • shopvac20: wow ... this seems to be a never ending black hole - 1200 flat, some of us have been holding nugt since 1310 a long slow painful ride
      12/19/13
    • shopvac20: weekly unemployment claims at a nine month high, aaaaand the markets at an all time high, I'm either out of touch with how great things are.
      12/19/13
    • shopvac20: or the powers that be are controlling the little fish like us... I am tired of being on the wrong side of the tracks tho :(
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Marginal new low on GDX, another 14 cents. Added on NEM near lows. Looking for a down close today but a bounce next 3 days after that
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: I wrote an article recently saying that 23.79 or something was the NUGT target if we fall as much from 59.97 that we fell when we dropped
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: from 81 to 45.50. We are about there. Still hopeful 20.00 holds in GDX and we may have already hit the multi-year low this morning
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: shop - just remember, markets can be very wrong in the short-term but do adjust. And, the tide can swing as to which side of the tracks are
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: the right side.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Everyone is calling for break of 1180 in gold and then 1100 and 1000. Well, we might run stops under 1180, but I doubt it. If stops r run
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: the lowest I see is 1155. I place chance that 1180 breaks as less than 15% and less than 1155 about 2%. I could be wrong, but feel it is
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: a major hurdle getting GDX under 20. If 20 is broken, should be much higher shortly thereafter. Will stubbornly hold for now
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Just do not know what to make of this...
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: As I was typing, gold hits new low at 1192.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: gold hits a new low, but 20.37 low in GDX held so far. Small victory.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: buying on weakness, 10:02 a.m., NEM 37, ABZ 46, GG 65, AUY 85, SLW 90.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: miners should bottom before gold does so if gold is near bottom, GDX needs to bottom now. I believe it is bottoming as I type.
      12/19/13
    • shopvac20: NEM #36 buying on weakness
      12/19/13
    • shopvac20: thanks grow... getting caught in the avalanche is starting to get the best of me...
      12/19/13
    • ricejudicata: shop, if it makes you feel better, I will add to my position this morning. I love that all the negative reports come out this morning.
      12/19/13
    • sszaheer: Mr Robert: Is it over? or still going to touch 1180
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: Stock avalanches - You ever sell a stock you were getting beat down on but leave it on a watch list? Then a year later, see it was up 300%?
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: Time frame perspective can be so important in investing. Nice to make quick profits when you can, but big profits aren't usually made fast
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: and without hard work against the currents.
      12/19/13
    • njtoms: From the Ridiculous to the Sublime. This is Getting Much Worse than I Thought. Anyone else?
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: Picked up a few NUGT 25 calls for Jan 3rd.
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: Existing home sales slowest is almost a year. Spike in unemployment claims (in December during Holiday seasonal ramp). Anyone see anything
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: wrong with taper, higher mortgage rate/Treasury Yields, upcoming debt ceiling and low Gold?
      12/19/13
    • glaserdx: IMHO taper is non financial impact - symbolic; Ben wants to leave with start of rate "normalization"
      12/19/13
    • shopvac20: Grow i am with you on that, bull still standing. 17 trillion in debt, "budget deal" adds 2 T more..the __ gotta hit the fan sometime, right?
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: What I can't figure out, is how is the taper so bullish for regular stocks including financials and so bearish for gold stocks.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: regular stocks in a bubble. Gold stocks in a reverse bubble, as stupid cheap instead of stupid overpriced.
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: Exactly. Money flow and market dynamics seem to be on the wrong side of the tracks at present.
      12/19/13
    • glaserdx: but small taper will keep money flowing into stocks as rates will stay low -- i think we can get a relief rally in GDX but not sure when
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: We still have low interest rates which is very helpful for miners. Interest rates not going up for a long time. Cheap energy helps keep
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: mining costs down. Stronger economies around world should help buying by India, China and others GDX trading like it is 2008 crisis but
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: stocks think it is 2007 top, party time. Stronger economies should eventually result in M&A activity to bid up cheap price miners. Inflation
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: is not dead, only masked by manipulation. Inflation will be seen in future and gold will trade above 2000 price down the road.
      12/19/13
    • glaserdx: Rob-agree; inflation in asset/stock prices now - when banks lend more as economy improves, inflation will start to bite
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Rent, food, medical costs, tuition, all have inflation. Wages, gold and gold stocks have no inflation.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Never thought I would be glad to see 1200 gold price, but coming from below 1200, u get a different perspective.
      12/19/13
    • vanebfbc: So it seems gold is reluctant to stay below 1200. Miners seem to be dropping less than gold, might be the 1200 cost threshold at play here.
      12/19/13
    • vanebfbc: Will be in Asia for a month and won't be actively trading/stocktalking for a while. Hopefully we will be better off when we meet again!
      12/19/13
    • glaserdx: best to you vanebfbc
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: I will order a big rally and have it waiting for you on your return, vanebfbc. Just ran stops under 1192 & bounced. Holding for now
      12/19/13
    • shopvac20: onwards and upwards van
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: vane - enjoy Asia. Let us know what is happening with the miners, Gold demand and NQ while you are over there. The rally order is placed :-)
      12/19/13
    • sszaheer: Mr Growfast: I agree with you and looking more information on my NQ position.
      12/19/13
    • dan1981: Re since nugt was 40 s u have been convincing of bull ? I got GDX call jan and hedged with dust. At least saved myself.
      12/19/13
    • newbie872: Long ago, I stopped trying to assign logic to the market. Often, I think herd mentality rules, though the herd may not be right-or logical.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Yesterday I sold 200 NUGT 28.72 and another 200 @ 28.49 but bot back at 28.00. On the breakdown should have sold and bot back today's low
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Got to be more proactive on these down drafts and sell when it broke 27.50 or 27 because going lower. Even 26.24 AH was good trade
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Could have helped myself by reducing breakeven by $2 or $3 pretty easy had I acted. Vowed to be more aggressive in future.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Just ran stops again on gold, new low of day by 50 cents. Popped back so far and no real range extension. Enough already.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: So far gold miners are pretty oblivious to minor gold metal dips to new lows. That is good.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Three minutes before the close, gold breaks down to 1186 but bounces a bit. Would you expect anything else at this point. .
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Don't know what to expect anymore ... No direction for gold to take ...equities are ruling the future. I was too stubborn to see the overall
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Trend ....over the past month.
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: The grind continues. This is just plain hard work. Question is, what is the trend going to be in the near future?
      12/19/13
    • njtoms: R.E., could you confide on what you missed; when you called for Gold to Rise in the Wake of the Fed's Tapering? Your Tax Selling Take? Thx
      12/19/13
    • shopvac20: frustrations mounts! 1186 just a couple days ago we hit 1260 and seems to be falling. I believe it will go up, but did see a downward trend
      12/19/13
    • shopvac20: and failed to act on it numerous times ... now just got to grind it out, stress it out, and hopefully we can climb this mountain.
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: shop - hang in there. We can all look at lessons learned. Hindsight always shows me what we should have done on trades or investments. If we
      12/19/13
    • Growfast: had rallied to 1400, everything would be very different and we would be here thinking we are really smart. Learning continues; reward ahead
      12/19/13
    • shopvac20: this is true... we live to fight another day
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Since I started this I have never really felt smart....even on the upside...I must say after nearly 9 months of this grind ups and downs I
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Can't say for sure what was right or wrong... This process is not one that can be documented in short mid term and improved easily
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Usually I can see what went well and what went not so well and improve but I am not to the level of knowledge and detail yet to do so.
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Meanwhile I am loosing my....you know what! ....lately
      12/19/13
    • davePx: So do we have a plan for the morning open?
      12/19/13
    • davePx: I could guess the dust will settle and a minor rally is afoot. The dollar may pull back again I support and the Dow,s&p will pause and dive
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Leaving room for some inflow to the ETF that are holding up well
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Just a guess though
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Sorry grow...if if sounds a bit like a rant!
      12/19/13
    • Lefty6x6: guys we are leaving out the concept of the end of the year selling - lots of selling at a loss for tax purposes.
      12/19/13
    • davePx: Yes ...good point
      12/19/13
    • davePx: I would have thought most would have gotten out by now well gold was up somewhat ...when s&p hit 1800 we lost this battle
      12/19/13
    • njtoms: Just Thought of this? R.E. is the BullishHarmi still Valid on the GDX Weekly Chart?
      12/19/13
    • njtoms: Maybe RE missed my Question. Why did you expect Gold to Rise after the Fed Taper? Your Take on alledged Tax loss selling?
      12/19/13
    • njtoms: Have No Life, and have been watching cnbs all day. Not ONE Positive Comment on Gold. Targets Mentioned 1100, 1000, and one guy 900. such BS.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Gold is off the bottom in the night session. GDX made only marginal new low. Still holding out for 2-week rally or more to start Friday.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Have not taken out 1180 bottom yet. Hopefully they won't. My stop in NUGT is 20 or 19, depends on what markets look like if we get that low
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: There is no bullish thing to say about gold except there is nothing bullish to say about gold. We could be at multiyear lows as I speak
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: When gold gets weak, they trot out every bear they can find and there are plenty. Totally meaningless. Tough buying at 5 year lows for sure
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: We r still above the 23.70s target to make same percentage drop from 81 to 45.50 in NUGT counting from 59.88. Taking a sentiment reading of
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: diehard bulls right now, which our group is, I would say we r surely at a major, major low now. Could it get any worse? I think not.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: If gold can move back above 1200, or especially 1210 and 1215, short covering could move it up a lot more pretty quickly. .
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: From the bottom, where-ever that is, the next rally should be more than $100 and could be $200 or more. I will wait to get out higher price
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: I may ultimately lose, but I have to be in it, to win it, so I will remain firm until I am stopped out. GDX and NUGT, make my day if you can
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: The only thing I can be stopped out in is NUGT and if stopped out, I will move to GDX to get my money back. I will be here for awhile
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: At that point, I may trade GDX but more likely I will switch to gold futures using mini or micro contracts to space myself long over time
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: In the past when I got beat up in gold stocks, we were so washed out at that point, I could get all money back and more in gold futures
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Gold futures pretty sloppy right now but miners look like to me they don't want to go much lower. They r trying to get their footing to pop
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Trading below 1200 does not mean we have to now trade 1150, 1100, 1000 or lower. Just like trading above 1900 in 2011 did not mean we had
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: to hit 2000, 2200 or 2500. Gold could not bottom from above 1200 and rally, so it had to take this dip below 1200 to scare out some bulls
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: when enough bulls give up and enough bears get short under 1200, we will trade back above 1200 and keep going to 1400 or 1500 maybe
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: I have not seen anything yet that would make me panic and sell. If I do hit that point, then I will sound the alarm. Until then, I hold
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: we are in a 2 plus year bear market and based on past bear markets in gold and miners, we should be close to a bottom.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: If we don't take out the June low, then it is possible we already ended the bear market in June and this is a retest of the low now.
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: I see the absolute worst bottom low as 1150 to 1155 so I will hold until that low is broken at least. No reason to dump at the bottom
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: Once a gold bear market lasts over 500 days, it should not make more than a 2% more low and so 1150 should hold the bottom from 1180 so far
      12/19/13
    • Robert Edwards: From today's low of 1188, that is 38 dollars risk to downside. Upside, 100 to 150 dollars quickly, 300 plus down the road
      12/19/13
    • njtoms: and the same Morgan Stanley Analysts Look for Much Higher Profits for the Miners; even though they expect Lower Gold Prices. Source:Barrons
      12/20/13
    • njtoms: Late Yesterday 3 Morgan Stanley Analysts Came Building a Bullish Case for the Gold Miners. Major Cuts have Left Them Lean & Mean.
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: miners r getting ridiculously cheap, trading below book value. the story will change when stock market tops & need somewhere else 2 invest
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: overnight they will see the light and upgrade the sector and turn bullish. they won't do it as gold falls. won't stick neck out.
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: also they want to wait till their buddies r ready to join them. give them some cover. won't go on limg by themselves. tide is turning
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: bears r running out of ammunition. can't scare gold with taper talk anymore. can't scare with employment #s or any other news. can't scare
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: with threat of breaking below 1200. only scare left is 1180 break make go to 1000. if 1180 breaks bears have no more bullets in their gun
      12/20/13
    • shopvac20: Morning has been choppy ... Like the latest swing upwards. W debt ceiling debate in view, maybe we gain some momentum
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: Just waiting for gold to get back over 1200. It would be huge to do it in the first half hour of trading instead of getting usual dip down
      12/20/13
    • Growfast: Big rally is WAY overdue. The only rallys during the last 2 months have been only around 40 point moves in Gold.
      12/20/13
    • davePx: Big rally today in stocks is making it difficult for any fund manager to justify gold
      12/20/13
    • davePx: The highly manipulate tool (gold) is being used to its fullest extent to make a max profit out out of the down trend
      12/20/13
    • davePx: If that and this US dollar make even a small turn negative gold wils see some recovery
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: we r due for a quick $10 pop in gold. Big shortcovering order way overdue to knock some bears out of their shorts.
      12/20/13
    • melanielshop: bot NUGT @ 24.82
      12/20/13
    • davePx: If I was a fund manager I would be contemplating when to pull some of my clients money off the table ..stocks
      12/20/13
    • Growfast: Right on, Dave. Good buy Melanie. Patience rewarded you with that purchase opportunity.
      12/20/13
    • davePx: US dollar just turned neg
      12/20/13
    • davePx: Dow turning a bit.....
      12/20/13
    • Growfast: Bought some more NUGT 25 calls expiring next week
      12/20/13
    • Growfast: Gold looks like it is itching to break above 1200 now, bumping around at 1198, but wants to pop
      12/20/13
    • melanielshop: Finally over 1200 yay!!
      12/20/13
    • davePx: Dollar still dropping
      12/20/13
    • johnpsychdoc: Wow first Friday I've had off where I'm shadowing this board but not thinking about putting my head in the oven:) added 1000 NUGT at 9/19 Cl
      12/20/13
    • shopvac20: Nugt should show some strength w gold stabilizing over 1200.. Let's goooooo gold
      12/20/13
    • Growfast: If Gold can finally push through this resistance and get to 1210, should be free to run to 1220. It has just been beaten so badly, it takes
      12/20/13
    • Growfast: a lot of work to get itself higher.
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: NEM underperforming again. GDX has a bid under market but still held back like tied to an anchor. Need to shed concrete shoes and pop
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: need to close at 1:30 p.m. back above 1200 and hopefully closer to 1205 in gold. Late day rally may happen due to shortcovering over weekend
      12/20/13
    • davePx: I think we are in a scary situation here...with gold stalling it has nowhere to go be take a dive. I expected a different behavior.
      12/20/13
    • davePx: That is better!
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: got a close up $10 in gold, at 1203.80 area, closer to 1205 and solidly above 1200. Will encourage some shortcovering likely over weekend
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: Once 1200 broken, only one close under 1200. That is a good thing. Something to build on for more up on Monday. Looking brighter for gold
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX needs to close a percent or more up today minimum. Need to get it further from bottom. Slow taffy pull here with GDX
      12/20/13
    • davePx: Hope this is not the proverbial blip on the radar, this seems like a fragile point that is controlled by money flow away from the mkt and
      12/20/13
    • davePx: The US $, neither of which seems to be ready to change direction
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX likely have a down week but still hopeful for next 2 weeks of strength. Should get back to 1240 in gold and near 29 in NUGT next week
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: as long as NUGT closes up, even very small up days, there is no slippage. Only slippage on down days. Baby it along till it can stand & walk
      12/20/13
    • davePx: Next week could also play out on the down side here...cards are stacked against gold
      12/20/13
    • Growfast: dave - My thinking is we are vulnerable, but suspect the worst is over, at least until the next taper by Fed. Expectation is we start
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: If NUGT stays above 24 very good as it still keeps target of 50 n play. Very encouraged by gold coming out of bottom. We need good news LOL
      12/20/13
    • Growfast: building up again from here. If we do drop below 1180 though, my plan is to buy a put to offset all my NUGT. This worked great a while back
      12/20/13
    • Growfast: I sold the put for profit; just didn't get out of NUGT on its up, nor expect this downdraft. Would have been nice to have a protective put
      12/20/13
    • Growfast: in place again, prior to this leg down.
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: In 2008 we did entire selloff in 13 weeks. This time we are down all year, and in fact in a downtrend over two years, death by 1000 cuts
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: Slow down always harder to turn around as slow up too and lots of false moves up that fail. But we r finally at major support and things r
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: lining up for a bottom and rally and hopefully low is the ultimate bottom for several years when confirmed. late in the 9th inning of down
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: Even if gold was headed to 1100 or 1000 (which I don't believe is true) but even if it is true then still need to trade 1300 gold first.
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: Only after a shortcovering rally to 1300 should we work lower again if we r indeed going to go lower. Even bears should look for rally 1st
      12/20/13
    • njtoms: johnpsychdoc: what does at 9/19CI mean? Thx/Noel
      12/20/13
    • njtoms: Just heard this from Bob Pisani on CNBC. B4 Trading is done today; there is going 2B a Re-Balance of the GDX. Anybody Know Something?
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: Last rebalancing was Sept 20th, do every quarter on 20th of 3rd month. In Sept. they included some international stocks and dumped small
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: miners with too small of market caps. would not think it should be a big deal, pretty routine but may keep some buyers from buying today
      12/20/13
    • Growfast: Sure would have liked to have had a stronger finish. Good news, this week is over. Options expiration done with. Fresh eyes next week.
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: Big dump of GDX on close but did not make a new low as someone was there to buy. Moving from weak hands to strong every closing dump.
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: This is capitulation type trading that should portend a bottom. Soon expect a rally on close instead of usual selloff. Can't do this forever
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: at leas we closed up a bit today so no slippage on NUGT. Bears are relentless. They tried to move gold under 1200 but failed on that too
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: frustrating day, finishing frustrating week, but some encouraging signs nonetheless, and next week should be much, much better story
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX getting so cheap, hard to get a hard down day, so slippage should be minimal for awhile, giving us more time to recoup losses
      12/20/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX closed slightly above old low of 20.51 made previously, The 14 cent new low got no follow thru. Stopped falling now need 2 rally
      12/20/13
    • johnpsychdoc: Noel, meant bought at close yesterday. Looks like some big boys still think they can make a bundle shorting GDX near close. Lg 5000 of NUGT.
      12/20/13
    • njtoms: R.E., any new articles from you this weekend? Maybe we'll have a better week. thx/Noel
      12/21/13
    • njtoms: John, Thanks for the Planation. GDX is Like what MSFT was around 2 Years Ago. A Value Stock. Consolidated then BLAST-OFF. A Kinder 2014.
      12/21/13
    • njtoms: First time I Never seen a Weekend Post. Mass Depression amongst those still left. Rally right around the Corner. Please DO NOT Buy DUST.
      12/21/13
    • shopvac20: Bulls are still standing! waiting in eager anticipation for blast off.
      12/22/13
    • njtoms: shopvac20, have the thruster rockets ordered. Problem tis they don't arrive until mid-Jan. i'll either be in the poorhouse or Dead. No DUST!
      12/22/13
    • njtoms: If DUST can Move from 25 to 50 since October; wtf NOT NUGT? So, DUST Goes to 75 and NUGT to 0? I Really Don't Think So.
      12/22/13
    • njtoms: Been Thinkin' since Friday Night. Anyone whose Anyone has had enough Time to Price in all the Bad News About Gold & GDX. Make Sense?
      12/22/13
    • glaserdx: EOY Holiday season upon us without a clear short-term bias in GDX; relentless bears vs. bulls who see unbeliveable multi-year value
      12/22/13
    • shopvac20: I have a ton of faith in nugt pulling through, and providing us with a rally, gold just opened up and its not to impressive thus far, needs
      12/22/13
    • shopvac20: to stay above the 1200 mark and start climbing to the 1220 range to scare out some of the shorts.
      12/22/13
    • njtoms: Would have been Nice to Get a New R.E. GDX Article. Guess, He's as Depressed as his Followers. Feel Sorry for Edwards and Others and Myself.
      12/22/13
    • njtoms: As I Reckon. The Biggest and Deadliest Mistake was NOT Hedging with DUST. What's the Biggest Wrap agin the Miners? They Never Hedged. No?
      12/23/13
    • njtoms: And Your Point is, mr. glaserdx?? Have You Bought DUST as Your Hedge? If Not. Why?
      12/23/13
    • njtoms: As I Reckon. The Biggest and Deadliest Mistake was NOT Hedging with DUST. What's the Biggest Wrap agin the Miners? They Never Hedged. No?
      12/23/13
    • njtoms: Prediction this Board/Thread Dies today. R.E. no Posts in 3 days, Does an Exit Stage Right. Takers On?
      12/23/13
    • melanielshop: Pre-market NUGT above Friday's close. Let's see if it holds.
      12/23/13
    • shopvac20: LOTS of bearish gold news over the weekend, saw a lot of bulls making a turn, and gold is struggling to stay above 1200, RE, Grow, thoughts?
      12/23/13
    • davePx: Following the US dollar this morning
      12/23/13
    • davePx: Read this one http://seekingalpha.com/a/14yhp
      12/23/13
    • njtoms: It was Nice Knowin Yee, Robert Edwards. Don't Let the Door Hit ya on Your Way Out the Back.
      12/23/13
    • davePx: When Stocks are hot gold Is cooling ....this may persist through the end of the year....and?
      12/23/13
    • davePx: Dollar is going down today and will support gold if it continues
      12/23/13
    • melanielshop: Gold back to 1200
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: I suspect this week will be light trading and looking to hold some strength. A minor rally would be very good for us this week, but don't
      12/23/13
    • glaserdx: As evidenced by NUGT-DUST price action at least thus far
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: see action yet. Next week could bring some early action for 2014, or be light again. Certainly in January, I think we will see a good rally
      12/23/13
    • glaserdx: EOY Holiday season upon us without a clear short-term bias in GDX; relentless bears vs. bulls who see unbeliveable multi-year value
      12/23/13
    • glaserdx: 2nd that Grow
      12/23/13
    • rodh7858: It appears the USD/JPY "carry trade" best explains the parabolic rise of gold from '06 to '11 as well as the reverse trade that caused it..
      12/23/13
    • rodh7858: to plummet since. This is hot money, banks & hedge fund chasing & then dumping gold.
      12/23/13
    • rodh7858: I think JPY has to stabalize & reverse for gold to reverse the downtrend.
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Gold slowly trending up this morning. Would love to see us get back above the resistance around 1240s this week if we could accomplish that
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: 1220s would be a good start, but certainly not as convincing.
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: From a TA perspective, we either need a good bounce back to prior levels, or, begin doing the work of a new base.
      12/23/13
    • glaserdx: Rod - given that analysis, any thoughts where GDX is heading?
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: I've got some weekly calls on NUGT at 25; Sure would like to be able to sell them around 30+..... Trying to offer some encouragement for it
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: to go ahead and move up this week :-)
      12/23/13
    • shopvac20: our morning resistance mark of about 1205 is coming up, if we can pass that we might grow some legs
      12/23/13
    • davePx: I can't believe how optimistic you guys are ...I am personally warn out ...enthusiasm waning ...must be the Christmas spirit hitting.
      12/23/13
    • rodh7858: Also if u read up on wikipedia on the '06 - '07 US housing crash, a lot of that can be traced back to the USD/JPY hot money carry trade...
      12/23/13
    • rodh7858: When the hot money left Asia following housing collapse there creating a housing bubble here.
      12/23/13
    • davePx: Housing bubble on the west coast is reappearing ....
      12/23/13
    • davePx: Again a drop in US currency ...driving gold up
      12/23/13
    • davePx: Fleeting short term action though
      12/23/13
    • glaserdx: dave- can u tell me what dollar index u look at?
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Understand the tempered view, Dave. I'm prepared to take action for any downside risk as I mentioned before if we do see 1180 on Gold. But,
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: I think the bad news is priced in, the worst is over and we are either working very slowly up from here or, likely to see a good pop and
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: rally, especially in Jan. Any new bad news is more likely to be against stocks/economic improvement, although, expectations are that won't
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: happen until later next year - well beyond the Holiday season, if it does. I did a lot of stock research over the weekend and I can tell you
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: it is getting very hard to find good value. More articles on risk of market indexes falling down and that would drive shift. USD going down.
      12/23/13
    • davePx: I have been waiting for this to happen for months now but....the heads of investors are irrational...smart money I expected to see
      12/23/13
    • davePx: Signs of a pullout in sept ....dumb money I thought was going in now...but who knows anymore
      12/23/13
    • davePx: NUGT should be outperforming with the dollar dropping but???
      12/23/13
    • davePx: GDX is looking a little better since the opening
      12/23/13
    • glaserdx: IMO, as said earlier, there is no convinction trading, no strong short-term directional bias
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Agree so far. daveP, I think we are sitting where the puck is going to go. Short-term, that can be challenging. Folks will continue to stay
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: in stocks while they continue to go out. But, a good correction can move the herds. An article today says that Gold is no longer safe haven.
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Not true; safe haven isn't needed today. Stocks doing well, no economies on verge of collapse. No major political upheaval or threat of war
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: When some of those variables change, there will be a view of safe haven again. Also, FED is concerned about deflation and will be working to
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: get inflation to targeted 2%. That should help support a moderately improving Gold price. Other catalysts may be needed for strong pricing.
      12/23/13
    • shopvac20: Grow and Dave, I am trying to be optimistic, I have to much into nugt, and have been waiting for some relief for months as well.
      12/23/13
    • shopvac20: everything I read this weekend was very bearish, even gold bugs are moving bearish. They said that gold had a false price because of QE and
      12/23/13
    • shopvac20: they call for 1050-1100 mark for its real value. I am considering options in front of me, still no realized losses, but the pain is real
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Understood, Shop. This is why I think protective put options against NUGT holdings will be a good move if we go 1180 and head lower.
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Preparation to manage the downside risk if needed, but optimistic on the outcomes for upside.
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Also consider, if everything is bearish on Gold, if all negative bullets are used and there is nothing to drive Gold while we are still
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: holding 1200. Where is the future price likely to go? Bears are trying to drive out the bottom and if this is it, we are well-positioned
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: If they get more bullets somehow, we may need to manage that risk. But I think the risks are being taken out more and more every day
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: A single catalyst and we may see the rally we've been looking for.
      12/23/13
    • glaserdx: today is wack-a-mole mkt; NUGT up, then hit; DUST goes up, then hit; new toy for the kids
      12/23/13
    • shopvac20: thanks grow-I am with you, still thinking we might get some action outta the upcoming debt debate, and or some bubble popping.
      12/23/13
    • bobzic: $NUGT : Where is Robert?
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: Not been to a place where I can log in till now. Have some thoughts on a good article but not been able to post. Hopefuly will do so soon
      12/23/13
    • glaserdx: bobzic- don't know where Robert is. I miss him and his analysis
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: GDX is underperforming based on gold action. GDX should be unchanged at worst, as GDX took late Friday dump. Good news is bottom is holding
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: On holiday and will not be back to normal till next week. GDX looks like it still wants to hold above 20. NEM outperforming today vs. GDX
      12/23/13
    • davePx: The thing is will it hold
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: Friday's low in NEM has held, while GDX has to make new low by another 13 cents. More death by 1000 cuts. However, I am bullish and will
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: explain more when I do my article. I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Still holding to $50 NUGT target & if wrong, should still
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: hit $45 to $40 pretty easily. NUGT went from 45.50 back to $106 last summer. A similar big rally from 21.58 low in NUGT gets u to $50
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: If we stay $24 as NUGT low, then we have $55 target. If we should drop to $1100 in gold and hit $18 in NUGT, we would still target $41.50,
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: which means I should be able to get out at a profit ($41 ave) if we fall as low as $18 in NUGT. As long as gold hangs in here, I will not
      12/23/13
    • davePx: The situation last summer was quit different...we had unrest and market glitters, today we have mkt climbing and no unrest...
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: try to reposition. But if $24 starts to fail as NUGT support, may try to sell and buy back a few $ cheaper. Will be tricky if I try it.
      12/23/13
    • davePx: Sorry mkt gitters
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: I am very disappointed that we continue to underperform in miners. However, I am very positive in how well GDX & NUGT holding their lows
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: Periods of calm will not last forever. Calm is present but not future. There will be some news event that will trigger when time is right.
      12/23/13
    • davePx: I would think that more prudent direction...I am not seeing gold going up even in early 2014 significantly until the mkt turns
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: Shortcovering alone can spark major rally. Profit taking by shorts and new longs. No news required. When enough is enough it will rally
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: As long as we go sideways near bottom and don't extend, slippage in NUGT will be minimal and we have time to hold for now. We should soon
      12/23/13
    • davePx: So much negative sentiment here ...how can this be countered with a positive argument?
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: start 10 up days out of 12 or 17 out of 19 in GDX & NUGT and that will allow for almost no slippage and big gains.
      12/23/13
    • davePx: The US dollar in keeling it up this morning and that is about it ...if it weakens you will not see the bottom hold
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: gapping down today in GDX not justified based on gold action. Can't keep underperforming forever. Pendulum will swing back other way soon!
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: So much negative sentiment is positive. Everything being so bearish is the most positive thing going now. Darkest just before the dawn
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: davePx, the fact you feel so defeated is quite bullish for you & all bulls. The bears have won and just need to declare victory and cash in
      12/23/13
    • davePx: Geeessss Robert I hope you are right.
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: gold just took a dip right on schedule, as we r about to close in NY. Still, only down $5 and a moral victory for a Monday.
      12/23/13
    • glaserdx: Even gold bears see a near term retracement up in gold - see last paragraph http://seekingalpha.com/a/15073
      12/23/13
    • shopvac20: the gdx/nugt wars continue :/ hanging in there, I like the targets, though like dave,I am having a hard time seeing significant gold movers.
      12/23/13
    • shopvac20: 2 rallies ago we had unrest and uncertainty, last rally we had the end of the govt. shutdown and a debt deal...
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: Thursday selloff to new lows, like 10/11/13 action. Today we look like 10/15/13 in gold. If correct, we should move up big in 2 days
      12/23/13
    • shopvac20: though we do have a future debt battle coming up ... our 17T soon to be 20T debt makes me bullish on gold,but my enthusiasm has taken a hit.
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: Last May and June before GDX bottomed it was equally depressive and no obvious reason for rally, but just started moving up & shortcovering
      12/23/13
    • melanielshop: hard to imagine gold moving up in the next two days with light trading occurring during the holiday break
      12/23/13
    • melanielshop: 10 yr up to 2.92 and haven't heard any news from miners of improving fundamentals
      12/23/13
    • ptTL9: I am sure everyone read this article: http://seekingalpha.com/a/14ymf
      12/23/13
    • ptTL9: I find comments are as interesting as the article itself
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Charts are great to explain after the fact. Notice Avi does say, if you go over 118 in GLD, then bull targets. If you go lower, then bear
      12/23/13
    • ptTL9: yes, and i not looking for someone to tell me exactly where we will be, only support and resistance, and he is very good at doing just that
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: The market does need to show something to the upside over the next few days. If we continue fumbling and bumbling another couple weeks
      12/23/13
    • Robert Edwards: we r vulnerable to a further decline that I don't want to see and it not necessary and an aberration to what would normally be expected.
      12/23/13
    • ptTL9: Notice, his targets for Gld and silver next year. If he is right everyone on this board will be fine in March - April,
      12/23/13
    • ptTL9: http://bit.ly/1fVVZnz
      12/23/13
    • Lefty6x6: took some dust at 50.35 - I just think there is more probability of dust opening higher in the morn on continued light volume.
      12/23/13
    • Lefty6x6: remember guys: its not a crime to play both nugt and dust...its not like you have to commit to one or the other. be committed to the GAIN
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Lefty, if I thought there was going to be much of a move making it worthwhile, I would join you. But, I don't expect DUST to move much from
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: 50 upwards. I expect more sideways or up movement tomorrow. And, if I'm wrong, I'm shifting to a put on NUGT rather than DUST. We'll see.
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: You may nail it tomorrow.
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Sideways to up movement in Gold....that is.
      12/23/13
    • glaserdx: Grow- can u explain why the put on NUGT rather than buy DUST?
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Smaller investment to get bigger return. And, offset of NUGT rather than having to sell NUGT as I only want a certain % allocated to these
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: trades.
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Out of the account I'm trading too, harder for me to move in and out of NUGT and DUST. I'm not working off margin so have to have cash
      12/23/13
    • glaserdx: understood. thank you.
      12/23/13
    • bobzic: $NUGT : the NUGT trend is strongly bearish. Look at Bollinger bands, MACD and RSI.
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Looks like a low to move higher from to me. RSI low, lower end of band with positive MACD. Move could fail, but MACD signals to me to expect
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: improving RSI and move to upper range of Bollinger Band.
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: BB is squeezing, which means limited volatility and soon expectation for higher breakout with bias to upside more so than downside.
      12/23/13
    • Lefty6x6: grow: I really have to get into this options thing. I'd like the idea of leverage. I have an acct w cash, options approved and margin.
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: Lefty - the way you have been nailing some trades, not sure we want to mess up the good formula. But options could provide you additional
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: leverage for the right play. I think they are very useful for - maximizing return with leverage, or in risk management. Probably not as
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: good to use for short-term trades as you do DUST or NUGT, but possible could play that way.
      12/23/13
    • Lefty6x6: I was thinking getting into options for a less frequent path - begin to develop a parallel but longer term line of activity
      12/23/13
    • Growfast: That combination may provide you with some more interesting dynamics and opportunities.
      12/23/13
    • Lefty6x6: well....isn't that what new years resolutions are for ? that and the commitment to spending more time on the water?
      12/23/13
    • gonetouring: I'm concerned that the cartel will use the opportunity of thin holiday trading to break stops below 1180. Agree that GDX is really showing
      12/23/13
    • gonetouring: close too bottom (Gold juniors on ASX are up 10-20%).. but falling gold price really doesn't help! That's the risk I see. A good global
      12/23/13
    • gonetouring: distrurbance (Islands, bird flu, something) would put a fire under POG. Happy holidays to all. GT
      12/23/13
    • johnpsychdoc: Well I'm still holding 5000 shares of NUGT into 2014 but have been able to reduce my cost basis to roughly $30. Looking back it would have
      12/24/13
    • Lefty6x6: looks like I am gonna be wrong at the open. but I'm certainly not a pakicker. nobody has ever made a dime by panicking....
      12/24/13
    • Robert Edwards: Wrote a new article and started a new thread: http://seekingalpha.com/p/1i2b9
      12/24/13
    • johnpsychdoc: PS Looks like an encouraging opening but I'm going Christmas shopping and letting the market sort things out for itself.... John
      12/24/13
    • johnpsychdoc: will eventually become a winner but stress endured will have made it too costly. Again lesson learned. Happy holidays to RE and everyone!!
      12/24/13
    • johnpsychdoc: been much better to set stops and not be 'trapped' into position and awaiting a turnaround. Lesson learned. Still believe that this position
      12/24/13
    • njtoms: There is a Rumor Running this Morning that Goldman Sachs Has Come Out an Called the Gold Miners 2014's Contrarian Trading Play. RealMoney.cm
      12/24/13
    • njtoms: Go to StockTwits.com. Type in GDX. JP Morgan Upgrades the Gold Miners Index. Top Picks: NEM, GG, SLW, EGO. So Beat Up. There Value Stocks.
      12/25/13
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