• Robert Edwards
    With Deeply Entrenched Down Trends, Why Am I So Bullish On Gold And The Miners? $GDX, $GLD, $NUGT http://seekingalpha.com/p/1ifyx
    1/1/14
    Reply (185)
    • shopvac20: Thanks RE, Looks like they did a good amount of work over the ponds last night we need to keep it up.
      1/2/14
    • melanielshop: Gold starting off the year nicely
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: Today I start daytrading to reduce my average price. will look for spots to sell strength and buy back on weakness,
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: so far, sold a few NUGT 29.37 and NEM 23.57 to buy back lower if we correct a bit to fill gap some
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: on taper decision day NUGT could not get above $29 so now we exceeded that day's high already.
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: gold up and stock market down.....unbelievable! Am I still asleep and dreaming? I guess markets do trade both ways after all.
      1/2/14
    • glaserdx: both gold & dollar up today
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: Sold some more NUGT 30.37 so out of 30% of NUGT at 29.37 & 30.37. Will buy back on weakness. Sold some NEM 23.80 again, still holding core
      1/2/14
    • shopvac20: I still have all core NUGT, looking to climb to the 50 mark, what are your thoughts after this morning activities?
      1/2/14
    • glaserdx: GLD is above Avi's 118 mark- see if it holds
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: Resistance on GDX is 21.90 area to 22 and 22.21, the old low of late June. May struggle at these points today, getting thru
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: My son ave. is 21.88 in GDX if we has not added. Finally break even for him. He won't sell here though, will wait for 24 to 25 minimum
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am not bearish but decided I would sell a bit on strength to lighten up so I can carry NUGT thru any low it goes to & not get stopped out
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: After I sat and did nothing on taper day, and let it make a marginal new low, I vowed to dump some NUGT on trade above $29, that day's high
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: Anybody who can't hold NUGT thru possible $18 to $20 price move, should dump today or tomorrow a few shares to lighten up for staying power
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: I try to never dump on weakness but remember the pain to remind myself to dump a little on strength when given the opportunity.
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: If my average is $41 in NUGT, I can sell some from $30 to $50 and still average selling at $41 breakeven. Freed up cash to buy on any dips
      1/2/14
    • glaserdx: Rob did you mean $18 to $20 on NUGT or GDX to sell some shares?
      1/2/14
    • ptTL9: nugt 50 sma at $36.41, at best this move will stop there
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: Glaser, If gold does roll over and trade down to $1090 area, NUGT could fall to $18 to $20. I place the probability of that happening
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: less than 15% but no need to take chances. GDX and NUGT are very back and forth and even on a good rally, should be able to sell strength &
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: buy back on weakness. From now on, will sell on any strength and buy on any weakness to get going scalping again. Scalping and overnight
      1/2/14
    • glaserdx: ok thanks
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: buying or selling in the aftermarket and getting out in premarket, is my bread and butter. Gonna stop doing this buy and hold thing in NUGT
      1/2/14
    • gaklaw: very much appreciate your concurrent posts of your day trading activities...with you on trying to lower avg & not hold all thru another low
      1/2/14
    • ptTL9: thanks for the posts RE, any thoughts on buying DUST. I am thinking on getting in at $39, I don't believe in gld rallying first half of Jan
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: Holding in here really well, so bot the NUGT back at 30.02 that was sold at 30.37.
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: I would hold off on buying dust unless one did it very small, till gold hits 1240 area, probably tomorrow.
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: My new rules for 2014 which I plan to implement as soon as I can get out of some of my current position, is to buy 1/3 of DUST or NUGT &
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: if making money, just take that and be happy. If losing in NUGT, after 1/3 invested, can only DUST & visa versa, till another 1/3 cash spent
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: Then final third is added to which side is making money at the time. This way, stay more balanced like with Lefty's teeter totter.
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: left a word about above. If long NUGT then can only add to DUST and if long DUST, can only add to NUGT. This way will stay balanced more
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: I will release some preliminary trading rules proposals for trading NUGT/DUST, in an instablog within the next 24 hours.
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: I had sold some NEM at 24.10 for small scalp and bot back at 23.90. Still holding core NEM and have not touched GDX shares
      1/2/14
    • sszaheer: It will be great for some of us. Thanks RE
      1/2/14
    • glaserdx: looking forward to NUGT/DUST trading rules. Sold some NUGT @ 30.50
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: sold some NUGT 30.49 for scalp, that was bot back at 30.02. Will buy back again just under 30
      1/2/14
    • melanielshop: On my third trade in/out of NUGT. It's a great start of the year!
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: I figured we might get a 1:30 gold closing dip but not today it looks like. Holding in pretty good. Will have to buy on any weakness
      1/2/14
    • ricejudicata: Heavy physical demands from the Chinese and looser regs from the Indians. Hope we sustain momentum going into debt ceiling debate.
      1/2/14
    • davePx: Yes sold at 30.7 waiting for a dip...
      1/2/14
    • shopvac20: These are the fun days, where is Growfast? hope he is enjoying todays gains as well.
      1/2/14
    • davePx: I am sure he is focused this morning
      1/2/14
    • gaklaw: Regretting that I didn't pull the trigger to get trading shares back in around 30. Oh well..Great day for my core NUGT!!
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: New high of day right after they closed gold, very interesting indeed. Looks like we go to $1240 to $1250 tomorrow so I add before close
      1/2/14
    • melanielshop: Hmmmm...when to buy on the dip
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: Bot NUGT back at 30.74. Will add towards 30.00 more if we get that low today
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: Buy order in NEM at 24.01 not yet filled
      1/2/14
    • bobzic: If GOLD close above $1227, it will be a rally tomorrow.
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: When GDX closes above 22.21 the bottom is confirmed. Should happen tomorrow. Will add more on any weakness today
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: bot more nugt 30.41
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: bot some NEM 24.08
      1/2/14
    • melanielshop: Gold up, dollar up, 10 year up...which one is out of synch
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: today is more bullish than expected even by mr. bull, me. might get a late day surge on shortcovering to new HOD
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: tomorrow should test 1260 in gold if we get some followthru buying in asia like I am looking for.
      1/2/14
    • rodh7858: I have mentioned b4, don't watch dollar index, instead watch dollar vs yen. A yen bottom & reversal is needed as a pre-cursor for gold raly.
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: bot more NEM 24.00
      1/2/14
    • shopvac20: Would like for gold to finish the day strong... stop the slide.
      1/2/14
    • Robert Edwards: bot more nem 23.95 just before close
      1/2/14
    • shopvac20: front page on market watch, gold! http://on.mktw.net/1devKVD
      1/2/14
    • gonetouring: Team, I think that we are "off to the races now", new year, a paradigm shift: Comex is almost out of deliverable gold; JPM has been stashing
      1/3/14
    • gonetouring: 96% of Dec contract; GDX way oversold; rise in POG in Asian trade was phenomenal; at these levels a DRAMATIC short covering rally is v.pos
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Sold NEM today 24.22, GDX 22.15 and NUGT above 31.51 and totally flat this minute. Will not cautiously buy back on dips. Decided to sell
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: against resistance of 24.21 area in GDX, the old low. If we get back thru that, then I will get long again in a big way. But if not, I
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: will add on dips and be more balanced and play both DUST & NUGT. Being a Friday, we may not extend today and may have to wait till next week
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: On the dip to the lows of the day, I bot NUGT back 30.80, and NEM 23.98, & some GDX 21.99, but not big like before. Already sold GDX 22.13
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Will now buy on dips, correction, instead of not cautiously buy. Decided to lock in gains of last couple days, even tho still at a net loss
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Miners have outperformed last couple days over gold metal, and want to see GDX be able to prove it can move above 22.21 before heavy long
      1/3/14
    • shopvac20: RE, did you unload your core position in nugt ?
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: GDX has problems putting 3 green bars together. We have two strong big green bars and today would be day 3 and already struggling as usual
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am still bullish for continuation next week, but feel I can buy back a bit lower today and possibly Monday of next week before going on up
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: After daytrading some today, my average NUGT sell is over $32 so I have room to get back in before we take out $32.
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am very committed to getting my NUGT money back, but feel that day trading and repositioning and not being as large of a position, I will
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: get my money back sooner than just buying and holding, and I won't need $41 price to do it. I should have money back much sooner.
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: this way. $50 target is still valid for NUGT. Will be lots of rallies and dips getting there though and I might as well play them like now
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Right now GDX is up one tick and gold is 1234, so miners are under performing. If gold comes back to 1229 or 1230 area, GDX new LOD maybe
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Right now, I have gotten back half my loss from the worst prices when NUGT was at $24 and GDX low $20s. Better to sell on strength vs. weak
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: ness. Held out NUGT thru the 20s and would have held down to $20 or a bit lower if required, to sell above $32 like now. I can now buy
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: NUGT in more balanced way till we take out resistance above $32. Don't want to give back the gains made in last couple days in any case.
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: Gold showing some strength here, would like to see bigger rally.
      1/3/14
    • shopvac20: welcome back grow - we had fun yesterday! I would like to see us pass the 1240 mark.. think we would shoot over 32 in nugt
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: Yep. We are pressing up against the high of the day. If we can pop it with conviction, we could have some fun today.
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: NUGT acting a little weak versus Gold, but that cycles each day. When it snaps back and if Gold moves, we may see more than 32.
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: Here we go making a run at new HOD. Pushing for it to break!
      1/3/14
    • davePx: Grow we just need some little steps up and nugt will perform well, the volatility momentum swings it to under or over perform.
      1/3/14
    • davePx: If gold will take another run at 1240 I would be happy for today
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: We made a new HOD in Gold, but pulled back a little afterwards. From past behavior when Gold was pushing against boundaries like it is
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: it almost always breaks out. Before COB, I am expecting a break out to the upside over 1240, hopefully another strong run.
      1/3/14
    • sszaheer: Any comments on gold.
      1/3/14
    • davePx: Nugt currently underperforming ...
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Just did an article concerning a single trading rule that could be helpful in trading DUST/NUGT, click http://seekingalpha.com/p/1ijvh
      1/3/14
    • shopvac20: Not much action today, vol. seems to be low for nugt, looking for gold to break through the resistance of 1240, then see if nugt reacts. RE?
      1/3/14
    • shopvac20: this morning before the market was open NUGT was up $1, when gold was at 1236
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: New HOD in Gold, but only taking it out a little at a time. NUGT underperforming as you stated shop. My speculation is that NUGT holders are
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: quick to take profits as profits have been hard to come by during the last couple months. But, if you look at the 3 month NUGT and NEM chart
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: We are looking very bullish. Especially once Gold pops, I think more conviction will come back into NUGT as they will see this rally is real
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: With Friday option expiration, we often have lethargic markets as Big $ option sellers don't want volatility. They like to close at strikes
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: GDX may close $22, NUGT may close near $31, NEM may close near $24. Sometimes they close half way (the middle) between strike levels
      1/3/14
    • sszaheer: hard to understand this action although RE explained it earlier
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Still hold NUGT bot back near lows of day, and NEM, but out of GDX for now, watching to buy back on any further weakness
      1/3/14
    • sszaheer: Any one looked at NQ and CLF
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Unlikely we get the surge in gold before the 1:30 p.m. New York close. But may pop immediately after close like happened yesterday
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: SSZ - Yes; still holding call options on NQ. Pulled back a bit today, but we should see 16 become lower bound support soon.
      1/3/14
    • sszaheer: How about CLF at 25.15?
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: Haven't looked at CLF and don't believe I have it on my watch list. Any particular reason you raise this one? Fundamentals? Technicals?
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: Bernanke speech coming up. I need to dig a little to see if this might impact Gold/NUGT/NEM/GDX.
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: Gold is over 1238 and working on breaking out above 1240. Treasury yields are moving down expecting Bernanke to talk about keeping rates low
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: If economy is improving, FED does communicate again low rates going forward, and FED is talking about getting inflation up, should help Gold
      1/3/14
    • melanielshop: Some say the Bernanke speech may be more of a goodbye speech than a policy speech. What do you think?
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: I think you are correct but FED is in session over the weekend too. So Bernanke or other FED members will likely talk some policy. Here is
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: what I find in expectations: 1) Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, will speak at 2:30 p.m. about how the Fed is changing;
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: 2) some analysts looking for comments emphasizing the central bank's commitment to maintaining low rates.
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Gold made a marginal new high, thanks partially to a 600 contract outsized buy order. Rallying prior to NY close as shorts getting nervous
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: Gold is looking strong. Need to pull out the defibrillator for NUGT/NEM/GDX! :-)
      1/3/14
    • sszaheer: Book value $37 Cash flow around $7, an article seeking alpha, read it if u get a chance you & RE better understand stocks technical levels
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: We just popped 1240 on Gold. Could get really interesting here.
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Sold out NUGT in 31.60s, just bot half back 31.15, will add more on weakness, along with NEM
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: Appears to be a good buy for today, RE. NUGT is certainly on sale again with Gold at levels of 1239-40.
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Trying to buy NEM 24.07, GDX $22.00
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: bot some GDX 22.03, got my NEM 24.07, will add more on weakness
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: bot some NUGT again 31.01
      1/3/14
    • davePx: Did the same ...
      1/3/14
    • davePx: Why is Nugt underperforming so deeply...something is up!
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: looking more like they want to pin NEM near 24 today, GDX around 22, and NUGT close to 31, as mentioned earlier
      1/3/14
    • shopvac20: gold took a retreat from the 1240 range... nugt is sleeeeping on the ups then wakes up for the downward movement. still green though!
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: bot more nugt 30.80, have nearly 80% of NUGT position on
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Looking like profit-taking Friday in miners as they outperformed gold yesterday and giving back a bit today.....making me cautious in here
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: bot some 30.90 GDX, have 60% of GDX position back on. Have 40% of NEM position on, buying 23.95
      1/3/14
    • Lefty6x6: dumped my nugt (30.90) @ 31.50 this more... teeter totter --- looking to unload my dust (39.00) @ 40.
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: gold popped right at 2 EST, must have been a report out then that gold buyers liked
      1/3/14
    • davePx: Really is a poor show hear...
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: So far today, GDX struggling to get above 22.21, the June low. Should bust on thru on Monday with gold moving over $1240.
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: Last Friday, we had weakness if you recall on GDX/NUGT mid-day and a strong rally to finish the day. Looks like we may see that pattern
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Gold may not stay above $1240 and may not close above $1240 on Monday, but should trade above that level before falling back much
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Placed buy order at 30.50 to add to NUGT, placed buy at 23.90 to add to NEM, if we drop a bit more in here
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Correction, traders liked the headline of 2:00 p.m. report, but quickly sold gold back off when more detail known apparently.
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: looking for a rally back to $24 in NEM, $22 in GDX, and $31 in NUGT, so bot more NUGT 30.30 and now 100% of NUGT position back on
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: I lowered my breakeven in NUGT today by over $1.25 by daytrading a bit so now can break even $39.70s instead of $41.
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Need to do this every day or at least every week. At this rate, hopeful can make a new $ high in trading accounts during Jan 2014
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: GDX has had a bid under the market, nearly the entire day, with the Bid size often exceeding 1000 (100 share lots). This is constructive
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: When the bid size keeps exceeding the ask size, there is accumulation going on, which tends to keep rally going for a few more days
      1/3/14
    • davePx: Got caught in the downdraft...looking for upside close but concerned about this last hour of trading...
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Gold holding up well when one considers this is Friday and profit taking of new longs could have hurt it today. Closed near highs and
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Set up for Sunday night and Monday break of 1240 resistance that should bring nice pop on Monday opening. Monday will be tricky day maybe
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Monday may hang some longs but not today. If we have a correction day, it is likely on Monday after stronger opening that bears fade.
      1/3/14
    • davePx: Got hurt today, will look to Monday fort relief
      1/3/14
    • Lefty6x6: morning pops -- one way or the other -- every time. I'm guessing nugt up at the open, then a fade and dust gains ground before a range day
      1/3/14
    • davePx: Goldman released a negative article on the miners...5 hrs ago
      1/3/14
    • davePx: Plus US dollar climbing
      1/3/14
    • shopvac20: Still holding core nugt .. 50 target still in sight, the weakness today was a downer ... Kept looking for miners to join golds rally
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: Sold weekly 26.5 NUGT calls at 454% profit. Disappointing close after being up this morning over 650%, but a good week overall.
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: RE and Lefty - if you guys are right about Monday (strong open and fade), I may sell some NEM and buy some NUGT puts on the strong open.
      1/3/14
    • davePx: Good one grow ...you are rolling in it!
      1/3/14
    • shopvac20: Grow, congrats !! Great week for you !! Will you write an article about puts and options for beginners
      1/3/14
    • shopvac20: To end the day with a selloff sucked !
      1/3/14
    • sszaheer: added 700 NUGT @ 30.20
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: Sure, I will work up something shop. From a NUGT chart perspective, probably not too bad with this close as we are stretching the upper
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: bound of the Bollinger band. Chart is still quite bullish and hope to spread that band further on Monday.
      1/3/14
    • glaserdx: Grow- 2nd Shop's request for options article
      1/3/14
    • sszaheer: Thanks everyone. Have a great weekend.
      1/3/14
    • bobzic: Veyr strange day
      1/3/14
    • shopvac20: Great thank you! Also thank you RE for your trade postings!
      1/3/14
    • glaserdx: 2nd Shop again!
      1/3/14
    • Growfast: Here is my instablog for leveraging options with NUGT and DUST, http://seekingalpha.com/p/1ikpr
      1/3/14
    • Robert Edwards: Great article! A must read and a must thing to do -- buying put protection when the original position starts to mount a loss. Thanks much
      1/4/14
    • bobzic: It is difficult to stay bullish after a weird day like yesterday. As announced last week, NUGT is @ $30.
      1/4/14
    • Growfast: bobz - I think the price action in Gold tomorrow night and into Monday opening will determine. NUGT traders likely are quick to take profits
      1/4/14
    • Growfast: following the challenging times we have had past couple months. Gold needs to show follow through moving up, then I think we will start to
      1/4/14
    • Growfast: see premium prices again. Also, against some resistance on the upper Bollinger Band from TA perspective. RE, and I agree, believes the Gold
      1/4/14
    • Growfast: price will still move up and NUGT/NEM/GDX will continue to come around. But, if we see downward Gold, then I may be back to considering puts
      1/4/14
    • Growfast: on NUGT or a little DUST - but not ready to do that yet with the bullish expectations on Gold next week and the still bullish NUGT chart.
      1/4/14
    • Robert Edwards: You got it right Grow. Gold and the miners are at a critical spot here. Some prognosticators are calling for gold to stop at $1240 or 1250
      1/4/14
    • Robert Edwards: And then retest the lows. We could struggle for a day or two getting thru the resistance here but there is better than 50% chance we punch
      1/4/14
    • Robert Edwards: on thru, IMHO. I have many reasons which I will put in an article later today. We have either seen the bottom, or we have one more dip to
      1/4/14
    • Robert Edwards: suffer thru. Either case, any dip should be shallower than anyway suspects it will be, and regardless, we r turning up in the end. Just a
      1/4/14
    • Robert Edwards: question of timing. How soon before miners can call victory. Victory is at hand either way it would appear. Better times for bulls coming!
      1/4/14
    • Robert Edwards: New article and thread, click http://seekingalpha.com/p/1imgt
      1/4/14
    • Lefty6x6: Grow: were you able to take advantage of the morning pop?
      1/6/14
    • Growfast: Didn't hit any of my targets to make adjustments today - for DUS, call or put options. Thought we might break 32 on NUGT, but with flash
      1/6/14
    • Growfast: crash, was too low to enter DUST in a matter of a couple minutes. Unusual day. Sounded like Dave exited at near peak and got back in, as
      1/6/14
    • Growfast: well as RE.
      1/6/14
    • Lefty6x6: nuts and bolts. I'm sitting on dust @ 37.80 - had a sell in at 39.25 and came up just shy. tomorrow will be here soon enuff I suppose.
      1/6/14
    • Growfast: DUST still had a lower low and lower high and lower close than Friday. But, who knows? Will be watching for direction tomorrow and will
      1/6/14
    • Growfast: consider DUST or puts if it seems to make sense based on direction.
      1/6/14
    • Growfast: Today was essentially flat on Gold. Price now is about where it was at 6 am this morning, after spending most of the day above those levels.
      1/6/14
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