• Robert Edwards
    Gold And Miners (GDX) (GDXJ) (NUGT) Should See Short-Term Top On Tuesday, February 18,... $GDX, $NUGT, $DUST http://seekingalpha.com/p/1ldyr
    2/15/14
    Reply (353)
    • andalcie: Is that an Island reversal on $IAG Friday on the Daily chart? Also touched 5-year Downtrend line & pulled back a smidge
      2/15/14
    • Robert Edwards: That is a shooting star pattern in Japanese Candlesticks, with the long trailing tail on the top and is more bearish than the morning star
      2/15/14
    • Robert Edwards: If we sell off on Tuesday then the bearish pattern will be completed. In any case, it portends a top in the short-term. Good observation!
      2/15/14
    • andalcie: Thx. So, buy $DUST, Sell $IAG, $GLD, $NUGT? Dojis on NUGT DUST after gap-ups. Thoughts on this approach. Volume up on all = good Volatility?
      2/15/14
    • Jeremy49: Thx for the article RE. Have some DUST already, and now more confident to add more.
      2/15/14
    • Jeremy49: Can't wait for Tuesday. This is the only thing I've done where I get upset when Friday comes cuz I have to wait for Monday to trade again
      2/15/14
    • Chumley97: I am so glad I found you guys. Not only is this wildly interesting, but the risk, volatility and the great returns are all very exciting
      2/16/14
    • Chumley97: I am so glad I found you guys. Not only is this wildly interesting, but the risk, volatility and the great returns are all very exciting
      2/16/14
    • Robert Edwards: On Friday, NEM was # 60 selling on strength, SLW # 62, and ABX # 79. Distribution happened somewhat on the Friday rally as profit-taking
      2/16/14
    • Robert Edwards: set in and GDX could not retake 26.50 later in the day and did close below the opening. NEM was well above $24 but closed well below it and
      2/16/14
    • Robert Edwards: only ended up closing up 30 cents for the day. Looks like we are finally hitting some resistance in the individual miners.
      2/16/14
    • Growfast: RE - I've been studying the Gold chart a little today. Some of the following are interesting to support what you cam up with. RSI is at 72+
      2/16/14
    • Growfast: suggesting a little overbought. This is after coming through a period where RSI has not been seen near these levels for many months. Volume
      2/16/14
    • Growfast: is tapering just a little. Price action crossed the 200-day MA at 1309 - a very bullish sign. But, on a 6-month chart, every cross of the 50
      2/16/14
    • Growfast: or 200-day MA, was always tested by a reversion before coming back above the MA. Will be an interesting week.
      2/16/14
    • gaklaw: Thanks for new article RE. I got into DUST a little early, but 22-24 will be profitable. Thanks for observations Grow. Fun week coming
      2/16/14
    • Growfast: Posted a new article on DGAZ here: http://seekingalpha.com/p/1lf63
      2/16/14
    • Growfast: Just looked at the Gold chart for current trading. Wow. It has spiked to 1323. Now that is likely to model out as overbought. Fun ahead
      2/16/14
    • Growfast: Asia is also trading NG prices at present over 5.4! If we open near that level or above on Tues, that may be a good buy opportunity. Don't
      2/16/14
    • Growfast: see how that can hold up for much longer. Got to come back down to earth.
      2/16/14
    • Peter L: Good article! Thanks.
      2/16/14
    • dan1981: Nice article grow !
      2/17/14
    • shopvac20: Trouble on Middle East and Venezuela. I would think that would act to boost gold.. Also gold got a big bounce w bitcoin crashing last week.
      2/17/14
    • Growfast: shop - Coming from where we came from in Gold last year and every time if would move up a few points, it would get slammed down hard for the
      2/17/14
    • Growfast: next downtrend, this has been an amazing run in Gold. And, more are getting on the bull bandwagon now that bullish levels have been hit.
      2/17/14
    • Growfast: After a few flat days in early Feb, since the 6th, Gold has moved higher from 1260 to 1328 with no indication at all that it will correct.
      2/17/14
    • Growfast: Money flow into Gold and related funds has been very strong. Just seems a matter of time before we get the normal healthy correction, before
      2/17/14
    • Growfast: Gold can safely move higher without leaving lots of territory for a fall if it continues up without the balancing effects of a correction.
      2/17/14
    • Growfast: When that will happen is yet to be seen. Following correction, very much ready for moves to new highs for this year.
      2/17/14
    • Growfast: Last time RSI showed overbought as it does now on the chart, we corrected in Gold from 1430 to 1300
      2/17/14
    • Growfast: Fundamentals may be more favorable for Gold now - but not so much so that we are not likely to see a decent correction soon.
      2/17/14
    • glaserdx: Grow-would u recommend buying NUGT? how about DUST position?
      2/17/14
    • shopvac20: Thanks grow, I agree-I think we are due for a correction ( I have DUST for now ) from Friday .. Then looking to continue higher ..
      2/17/14
    • Growfast: I think RE's suggestion to pick up some DUST perhaps some level of balancing with NUGT would be good. If we move up a bit more, NUGT would
      2/17/14
    • Growfast: gain, but when we correct, exit the NUGT position and ride DUST.
      2/17/14
    • glaserdx: gotchya-thanks
      2/17/14
    • davePx: Article worth reading http://bit.ly/1mpCf24 good article from RE and Grow thx. After reading the above
      2/17/14
    • davePx: Article and others I sense that this has a short window of volatility and the up as institutional investor start in on buying ... Have 10%
      2/17/14
    • davePx: Positions in both NUGT and DUST
      2/17/14
    • davePx: Long and heavy on DGAZ right now
      2/17/14
    • davePx: I intend to scale into whatever direction the gold trail takes and ride the trend
      2/17/14
    • davePx: I would say it is a good time to be watching the US dollar and the movement of the market in general for clues
      2/17/14
    • Robert Edwards: We got a windfall late last Friday in DGAZ and I sold a good portion of my position on close as we had a 3 day weekend. I got lucky
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Gold went up to 1229 on Monday and opened strong near 1332 in globex Monday night but has fallen back to earth this morning.
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Just bot some DGAZ $3.44 and DUST $19.80, just before the Tuesday 9:30 EST opening of stocks.
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Two best timers for gold in last couple years, are still bearish gold for 2014, despite current rally. http://bloom.bg/1mqUfJj
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Either they are right again and gold loses strength, or they are due for a miss since no one is every 100% right (reversion to the mean).
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Miners opened up but filled gap. Miners (GDX) showing resistance in the $26.50 to $26.60 area as expected.
      2/18/14
    • shopvac20: Morning! Added DGAZ early this morning at $3.35 ... heavy and long in DGAZ, have a medium position in DUST as well.
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Bot CLF 23.20, sold 23.37, bot against 23.00. Also see that PBR is a bit weak, may pick some up there too.
      2/18/14
    • Steven Couche: What's the breakout target for GDX on the upside where we should bail on DUST if it breaches? Strong push through that 25.60 mark?
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: I will not be bailing on DUST, as I have a small position and will just add on weakness down to $16 if necessary. GDX will correct somewhere
      2/18/14
    • shopvac20: Gold is showing some strength... its been a stamped, would think we would get a day of consolidation ?
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: either 26.50 or 28 or somewhere in between should stop GDX rally and then we get a healthy correction and DUST booms at some point
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: 49 was a buy in NUGT this morning. Instead of buying NUGT, for a quick scalp I bot some GDX in the teens (26.16) but sold in the low 40s
      2/18/14
    • davePx: Sold nugt at 51.09
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: gold is pushing towards 1324 and that is rallying GDX and hurting DUST right now. Will see if we stop somewhere in here on GDX
      2/18/14
    • Steven Couche: Bought DUST Feb28 22 Calls for $1.05, I really think we get a sharp 2 day pullback here. Could easily be 4 baggers
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: we did stop going up in GDX but kinda at a stalemate in here. So far I was right that Monday was the high (stock market holiday closure)
      2/18/14
    • Steven Couche: If we get a little help from gold, these miners will sell off...they've had a great run the last 3 weeks
      2/18/14
    • davePx: Hope this does not end up a fake out where gold does a sideways move then up again
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Bot more CLF at 22.90, now sold half 23.18. Missed getting in PBR today on the weakness.
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Bot CLF again 22.99, will buy again every dime lower. Bot DUST twice under 20 today, once 20.20, sold out 20.60 to 20.80, scalping is great
      2/18/14
    • Steven Couche: Your taxes must be hell
      2/18/14
    • dan1981: Hey RE. Which website do u use for live charts ? I am overseas and use msn money / yahoo which is updated after 15 m.
      2/18/14
    • Jeremy49: Haha GettinLong...now that you mention it...RE how do you deal with wash sales or taxes? Any accountant you can recommend?
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: I trade from 2 minute charts that are live using my Broker, Interactive Brokers. I check out commodities with ten minute delay at cme.com
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Yahoo.com then click finance, where you get live prices during the day for stocks that are not delayed.
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: It is looking like GDX might actually close down today, but if it closes up, will be a bearish inside day up and not very strong
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: I see PBR is getting weaker again, maybe I can catch a few shares this time. CLF has been great scalping buying 23 and lower today anyway
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Finally got some PBR 11.34, will add every dime lower if it should fall any more. Just bot DUST again 20.10
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: I follow Jason Sen who has a good handle on gold and currencies. He sees $ bottoming and gold topping here http://bit.ly/1h1Swn9
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: NEM made selling on strength list today, struggling again at 24. Also, PBR & EEM made buying on weakness list, buying emerging market dip
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: This guy is looking for a big selloff while I see nearterm correction. Either way, we should top out shortly http://seekingalpha.com/p/1ldz1
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Elliott Wave Analysis also calling for 1330 top in gold, click http://bit.ly/1e4ChCp
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: Not much meat in that article. Nothing to back up statements about Miners financials. Not even a chart showing overbought, but author is
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: entitled to his opinion.
      2/18/14
    • Jeremy49: That author made me lol...id prob gladly take the other side of any of his trades
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: I don't see the $1000 gold or $1050 gold price later this year as many are saying from what I am seeing right now. Things could change but.
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Hey gold just hit just above 1324 as it is closing now. GDX not following much to upside yet.
      2/18/14
    • dan1981: Tks
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: sold my DUST from 20.10, at 20.30, and now bot back 20.02, will keep scalping till we bottom for good.
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Big buyers around 20.00 area in DUST. Tight ranges today for day trading. Still had a great day scalping.
      2/18/14
    • shopvac20: pretty calm action today with NUGT/DUST and DGAZ/UGAZ since open anyway no big moves either way, looking for upside in DUST and DGAZ !
      2/18/14
    • Jeremy49: Bot some JDST at 17.78...had great success with JNUG so giving this a try. GDXJ is hopefully leading way down for the correction
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: That sound reasonable because J should underperform GDX on any downturn so JDST should outperform DUST
      2/18/14
    • Robert Edwards: Added more PBR at 11.24 which adds to my 11.34 shares.
      2/18/14
    • Lefty6x6: I'm looking to add more to my pile of dust @ 20.00 - is everyone enjoying the teeter totter ride?
      2/18/14
    • gaklaw: Couldn't resist adding DGAZ at 3.35...average now 3.76
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: Let see what Thursdays report brings. I read a post on a forum that says estimates now are for about a 95 bcf draw. No idea whether that is
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: the EIA estimate, but if true, is bound to bring a fall in NG.
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: Left - The teetering and tottering is very small....Will be fun once we get a broader range.
      2/18/14
    • Lefty6x6: hey grow - howz the weather up there? 76 and sunny here....might even hafta go fishin tomorrow....after the morning pop, of course !
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: We've got 79, sunny and a little humid, but nice here. Been getting some tennis and biking in and loving it. Should be a great fishing day
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: after earning the daily wage tomorrow. Hope you enjoy!
      2/18/14
    • Steven Couche: Double down on DUST calls?
      2/18/14
    • Steven Couche: I think so. Let's ride
      2/18/14
    • Lefty6x6: got more dust @ 20 so I have a decent pile of it now. but then I'm not a strict in and out by the end of the day guy either. I can sit on it
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: Weakness beginning to show in Gold and Miners. This may be the start for a good DUST, JDST ride.
      2/18/14
    • gaklaw: Added a little more DUST at 19.85 on that last dip...quick returns tomorrow would be nice!
      2/18/14
    • Lefty6x6: gaklaw: that's how to do it right there.....
      2/18/14
    • Steven Couche: Sitting on DUST more than a week or two is a bad idea, the decay can accumulate quickly.
      2/18/14
    • Jeremy49: RE could you comment on EDC? You thought it would bottom at 17.5-19 but it went a lot higher now at 23. Has it bottomed or more downside?
      2/18/14
    • andalcie: Jeremy fwiw, $EDC posted a weak-finish to me. Its a pattern that many times precedes negative news. Again fwiw.
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: Guys, I looked at the chart on EDC and it looks like it may turn a bit bearish ahead. I would wait to find the low out of that cycle to get
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: in, personally. I like EDC, just not sure this is the right time to enter optimally. March, we have another FOMC meeting coming up to
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: review taper decision and I wonder what impact that might have and whether all tapering is already baked in. Seems to be a reaction to each
      2/18/14
    • Jeremy49: Thx Grow and andalcie - was just curious. Most of my funds are tied up in DGAZ and DUST/JDST currently but wanted to know more on EDC
      2/18/14
    • andalcie: Last point Jeremy, be very careful with Leveraged ETFs, New shares are issued using the reverse-splits. DGAZ at mid-3s is ripe for that now.
      2/18/14
    • andalcie: ...pull up 5-Yr chart of $DGAZ. Will see the impact of reverse-splits. It's used to get the per share price back up into double digits.
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: Andacie - where are you getting this information on DGAZ?
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: I have looked at history on DGAZ and there have been no reverse splits. However, whenever prices get low, reverse splits are possible. They
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: make no difference in the value one holds and, in fact, may bring in more investors. A 10% move in a 3.00 unit is only .30 while one in a 20
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: unit is $2. Psychologically can be more powerful but the value is the same.
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: Looks like RE called the top in gold right on the money.
      2/18/14
    • Growfast: It's going to be a DUSTy, JDSTy kind of morning it appears.
      2/18/14
    • Jeremy49: Hope so Grow- bot JDST yesterday to go with my DUST. Figured you or RE would warn us if reverse splits in DGAZ were something to worry about
      2/19/14
    • dan1981: Grow is Dgaz at bottoming..
      2/19/14
    • andalcie: Growfast $DGAZ was ~$50 when launched, now $3.39. R-S works like this..1-for-10 means, holding 1000 shrs before, after holding 10.
      2/19/14
    • andalcie: ...At the $3 level, expect DGAZ to see a R-S sooner rather than later. "Attract new buyers after a split?" Yes, the dumb-ones.
      2/19/14
    • andalcie: ..Smart-money Short the stock right after the Reverse-split happens. E.g. look at a VXX chart.
      2/19/14
    • andalcie: ..Remember w/ETFs wannabe-Traders (that's us) are trading in a "Secondary market". Real shares go to "Authorized participants."
      2/19/14
    • andalcie: ..fwiw, here's a Wiki on ETFs: http://bit.ly/GO1Smk Been-burned, that's how I know...down 90% on $DGAZ and others.
      2/19/14
    • andalcie: .."fatman" lives in these Leveraged ETFs for the wannabe-Trader. Be warned!
      2/19/14
    • zaw77: NG is trading above $5.7 - it seems this time bulls want to achieve $6
      2/19/14
    • andalcie: . fun, new twist to trading which is widespread, asset-backed purchases. List it, buy it and they will come when you offer more "TomSosnoff"
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: Gold seems to top out and then keeps coming back. It is like a cat with 9 lives. Still waiting for the selloff to 1300 and lower
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: NG is 20 cents stronger in March, than when Feb topped out a month ago. Yet DGAZ is not as low as previously.
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: RE - What are your thoughts now on DGAZ? Not sure if we have bottomed yet or if could we hit 2.8 again? Thanks.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: Lately EEM and EDC only get one down day before a green bar, so with yesterday's down day we might be able to buy weakness today for scalp
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I bot PBR twice today at 11.00 and sold 11.10 for quick scalp. Will buy other dips today in PBR, and possibly EEM/EDC
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I dumped my CLF yesterday as I did not like the late day weakness and looks like I got lucky as we are quite weak today
      2/19/14
    • Lefty6x6: love me some morning pop ! dumped DUST, goin fishin ! later guys
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: To me, tomorrow's storage report will tell us a lot about the future for the March and April contracts in NG. NG March is spiking now which
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: is not having much effect on DGAZ. As RE had stated before, not sure where the bulls can take this spike on the March contract, but now that
      2/19/14
    • glaserdx: added to DGAZ @3.14
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: If DUST should trade down to 20 or get below 20 then I will add, otherwise, will carry the core shares already accumulated last few days
      2/19/14
    • shopvac20: lefty is awesome ! that funny... still holding dust, but dont know if I should be, would be nice to pop back to 22 range??
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: DGAZ is on April contract, all we care about is what NG for April delivery prices look like. A lower than expected withdrawal tomorrow and
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: the corner may turn. If we get a chance to buy more shares near our prior low in DGAZ, I will gladly take the opportunity. Hard to choose
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: the top but we've got to be close.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: From below $3, we got a nice bounce in DGAZ and should again get a nice bounce off this low, even if we slip below $3 first.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: DGAZ counting night session and premarket, went from 2.43 up to 4.67. That move to 4.67 was a chance to lighten up. I sold out 4.17
      2/19/14
    • glaserdx: below $3 I will add to DGAZ
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am in great shape as I have low ave. price now. Sold out partial on all rallies and bot again on dips and kept position small. Not bot
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: yet today as I am seeing if we can challenge 6.00 but plan to buy before day is out.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: just bot some DUST 20.06
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: 4.67? Goodness I really need to go to IB so I can trade in aftmkt and premkt. Missing opportunities
      2/19/14
    • davePx: I think the closer we get to potential warming that the UGAZ bulls will be more hesitant to push the envelope ....bought more DGAZ in PMt
      2/19/14
    • vanebfbc: The spread between March and April NG futures is now over $1. Is it more likely March will come down or April go up near expiry?
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: What do you think, Vane and why?
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: GDX is fighting to get back to unchanged since it gapped down today. So far can't fill the gap but still early
      2/19/14
    • davePx: The dollar may pick up some today and we may be able to get some profit out of DUST...long overdue making me nervous
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: GDX finally hit unchanged so gap is filled. Will see if we now get a selloff.
      2/19/14
    • vanebfbc: My opinion is that they will both be lower next week, but depending on tomorrow's storage report we still may see spikes like last time.
      2/19/14
    • vanebfbc: For April gas to trade above $6 will cause demand destruction. Suppliers will be unwilling to purchase from rigs unless it becomes cheaper.
      2/19/14
    • vanebfbc: So, the only thing that seem to support current unrealistic price is the record low storage, but this is ultimately unsustainable.
      2/19/14
    • Steven Couche: Does gold sell the Fed news today or what? I think they postpone the next taper.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: 26.44 was high of day in GDX then became 26.46 and hit that a couple dozen times without popping higher. Big battle waging bulls vs. bears
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: I'm with you, Vane. A spike is a spike and there is going to be more limited opportunity to drive the fear required to continue spiking
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: Bot more DUST on 19.83, will wait for a rally in DUST to dump some maybe.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I did notice several miners were on the buying on weakness list today but not gdx or nugt thankfully.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: ABX and NEM are up in Miners but AUY down with dividend cut. Another dividend cut may not resonate well with the Miners.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: But, I think Gold will have to lead the charge adjusting downward.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: No way they cancel the taper IMHO. That would be a drastic step and too soon to make that strong of a statement, need more data.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I think the statement says a bunch of nothing, most likely. Not worried about that at all. Would like to see gold sell off
      2/19/14
    • davePx: The trouble I see is potential mkt dip and the declining dollar among with higher demand for gold may overcome the fact we are at a high pt
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: sold DUST 20.08 and 20.15 that was bot 20.06 and 19.83 so back to core
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: now it will probably keep popping in DUST. Got tired of the weakness of DUST
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: gdx still not taken out 26.68 high and seems to have trouble with 26.50 area so maybe we are about to roll over. Way overdue
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: I have no idea of the merits but some of the NG futures traders are saying that Goldman Sachs told their clients that NG would get to $6.
      2/19/14
    • shopvac20: I am tried of the DUST weakness as well... I am right at my breakeven now, trying to decide next move ... ready for DGAZ to pop as well.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: More are starting to state they think it will get there, then the fall. We'll see...
      2/19/14
    • davePx: Really one of those "could go either way" points ...I really expected a no brainier gain in DUST but this is a struggle
      2/19/14
    • davePx: DGAZ appears to be reluctant to go below current levels...looking for a dip then up
      2/19/14
    • Steven Couche: You guys are throwing in the towel on DUST, here we go up up and away...haha
      2/19/14
    • davePx: Not yet still watching closely ...
      2/19/14
    • davePx: Had a little bounce in the dollar may be enough to help the DUST go
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I will keep my core DUST and add down to $16, down to $10, or as low as DUST wants to go as I will daytrade to lower price. Next big move
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: will be in DUST vs. NUGT. Just 6 or 7 weeks ago, NUGT could not bottom but it finally did, same will occur with DUST shortly.
      2/19/14
    • vanebfbc: I bought a bit of DUST at 20.05 to see if it takes off. Holding only half of what I'd like to have in DGAZ so I can get more if it dips.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: Today is day 3 of a 6 or 7 day consolidation period of GDX topping out. Will take a few more days mostly likely but next week should drop
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: Buying on weakness, GDXJ # 25, GG # 31, AEM # 36, GLD # 44, AGQ # 74. NEM fell off the list and PBR is # 57
      2/19/14
    • gaklaw: Grow - looks like March NG did hit 6 today, April almost hit 5. Maybe their move up is almost over....
      2/19/14
    • vanebfbc: All of the commodity forums (Stocktwits, Yahoo, Investing.com) are filled with trolls and garbage comments. I am so glad to be here with
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: March NG is 601 so hit $6. March NG futures stops trading next Wednesday so we might keep rallying till then like the Feb, then fall hard
      2/19/14
    • vanebfbc: you guys on SA. This is one of the only places where people are calm and talk about things that really matter.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: April NG is 4.88 so should see a big drop once March is gone which should pop DGAZ big time. That might explain why DGAZ not even weaker
      2/19/14
    • Steven Couche: Comon Rob, you keep moving the goalposts on me. How am I supposed to make any money here?!
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am confused though how that will work because if they are short April NG already, may not get much of a selloff as we are already down a
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: great deal from the $6 area of March NG. April may just go mostly sideways or trade a range of 4.40 to 4.80
      2/19/14
    • vanebfbc: Wow March NG at 6.08... this is way beyond the fundamentals.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: Backwardation vs. Contango. We now have backwardation with March and spot much higher than April futures. This favors bulls
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: Contango has carry as futures prices going back are higher than the current futures or spot price, this favors shorts as prices drop in time
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: With backwardation that may work against the holders of DGAZ as much of the drop in prices has already occurred when switching from March to
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: the April contract. I had not checked recently to see how far apart these two months were trading. It is nearly $2.20 which is very large
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Yes, backwardation will be interesting to watch, but Price/NAV will start to change when we see downside. They call the Mar/Apr spread the
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: widow maker. I think we are seeing why. Small backwardation in the strip after this one. Good news is, we are not severely affected to the
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: downside by the Mar spike, which could have taken us much lower in DGAZ if the roll wasn't there 5th through 9th business days of month to
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: get us out of March.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I forgot about the roll already occurring, so March is not the contract to watch anymore, but April is apparently, correct?
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: gold finally back in the teens and GDX not far from LOD. Need GDX to get under 26 and it could really fall quick another .50 to $1
      2/19/14
    • vanebfbc: RE that's correct. All NG ETF/ETNs are rolled into April contracts. That's why DGAZ/UGAZ only moved 10% when March NG also moved 10%.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: That is correct, RE, we are into the April contract in NG.
      2/19/14
    • gonetouring: Just sold NUGT/JNUG posns from 3weeks ago. Reasonable bet that GDX has topped for a while, RSI, USD index, gold etc.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: When Mar starts to fall down, Apr will pull back and, I think price/NAV ratio will go up as folks will buy momentum in DGAZ. Storage report
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: will be a key to this next week.
      2/19/14
    • davePx: Market keeps going up like the eveready battery ... !!
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Small move down now in Mar NG and DGAZ moved back up from 3.04 to 3.1.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: If Gold will crack below 1315, we should start to see momentum gain to the downside there. GDX/GDXJ/JNUG/NUGT should all respond further
      2/19/14
    • davePx: Putting pressure on gold...
      2/19/14
    • glaserdx: R.E. r u still holding core NUGT?
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am totally out of NUGT & have a core position now in DUST. I will play DUST till we complete a correction in miners and will then switch
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: Despite lots of gold on the buying on weakness list, we r very weak right now in GDX. EEM is # 16 so emerging mkt may be a buy in here
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: PBR and Brazil ETF is on the buying on weakness list. I am buying dips in PBR and looking for spot to maybe buy EEM/EDC
      2/19/14
    • Steven Couche: No help from gold, these miners are begging for an excuse to correct
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Actually, charts appear that miners are starting to lead downwards. Gold may follow soon. Some may be pinning hopes on no taper but Bullard
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: said almost word for word what RE said earlier. "Deviating from taper would be a strong signal". FED is not going to stop yet. Weather is
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: being blamed for much of this - same creator of the NG spike we are seeing.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Being blamed for the weak economic reports that is, on behalf of the cold winter weather we have had across the US. I can just picture the
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: E&P companies scrambling to get their production back on line to capitalize on near-term prices after weather took out some production.
      2/19/14
    • glaserdx: thanks R.E.
      2/19/14
    • shopvac20: Still holding core DUST as well. Good to see some climbing action. NG over 6 & dgaz still over 3.Wow, thinking about adding more, thoughts?
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: shop - Depends on your cost basis and purchase price and available cash. I would buy more if we get below $3, but not sure if that is going
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: the NG dgaz tracks is April contracts which are at $4.86 with a recent high set pre-market at $4.969.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: to happen. March contract NG is pulling back now, below 6 at present. Either buy really cheap on dips, or buy early into momentum if we
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: start to see a big move down.
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: but NG is looking a little top heavy at the moment. Good get a decent pullback in the short-term
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: I'm thinking that if we get a big move down, and good pop in DGAZ, I may unload a good % of my position and look for the bulls to give me
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: another spike to buy into. We've got a little more cold in us for February, the NE has been hit hard. Injections will likely start in March
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: Any of you guys looking at coffee, and JO? It's getting a little top heavy too
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Be sure to reposition. I think we will get back to my targets, but in case anything in that thesis doesn't work out, as long as we position
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: low, sell portions into strong rallys, I think we are going to be well off given some time. I really am interested in seeing how much bulls
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: can milk from cold weather and low storage, and for how long. Once storage reports start coming back that instead of withdrawals, we had 100
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: bcf injections, what is that going to do to momentum for us? But, storage injections won't likely be huge until prices come down.
      2/19/14
    • shopvac20: Thank you grow.My thought process is pretty similar w yours.Ready for a bounce to unload a little. Might as well make some $ on the bounce
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: In Mar 2012, we had injections (rather than withdrawals) of 101 bcf. Mar 2013, 98 bcf.
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: Grow - Will we get at least back to 4.00 in DGAZ relatively soon you think? Or will that take a few bounces to get back to that level
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: We have spiked so much, Jeremy, it is hard for me to imagine we won't get back to 4 rather quickly.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: DGAZ volume 22MM+ so far today...UGAZ 742K.
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: Ok thx Grow. Drop in NUGT in Oct/Nov we all went through I have learned patience. As long as DGAZ will recover to 4.00+ I can wait
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: ...just hopefully we stay above 3 in the meantime
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: or not lol
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Whoever the last buyer of this NG contract is as the bulls drive this higher is going to be holding one big empty bag. RE said this may get
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: bid up because they can. Looks like that is exactly what is happening. Almost buy time for more DGAZ but want to see how far they can take
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: this rally. Even the bulls are starting to laugh at the insanity.
      2/19/14
    • gaklaw: My next scale-in buy level hit - added DGAZ
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Bought a chunk of DGAZ at 2.97. Lets see how much better pricing I can get for next chunk. Run this baby to 10 today please! On paper would
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: be ugly, but for buying opportunity would be cool!
      2/19/14
    • gaklaw: no pain, no gain Grow
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: was able to buy PBR again 11.09 & 11.05, now near highs
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: If DGAZ really hit 4.67 during aftermkt/premkt that really sucks...my target was 4.6 to sell and I would have bought back again dirt cheap
      2/19/14
    • davePx: Bought DGAZ at 2.91. Maybe that's good ....we will see
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: Why not go up that high during normal trading hours and then fall back...sigh
      2/19/14
    • davePx: This is the dip I was thinking of earlier. Just hope it does not go too deep
      2/19/14
    • Steven Couche: This gold trade sucks
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: DGAZ certainly didn't touch that. April NG contracts did and are now at $4.97. Unless you're directly trading March futures, focus on April
      2/19/14
    • davePx: Seeing high volume on DGAZ
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: DGAZ hit high of 4.67 on 2/10 during normal trading hours. Maybe even a bit higher after hours.
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: thought he was talking about today
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: April NG is a few cents shy of 5.00. Could be a barrier at 5.00, so I bot DGAZ 2.90
      2/19/14
    • glaserdx: as did I, $2.90, which is 8% lower than my first tranche of the day
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: The shares I buy under $3 in DGAZ should have no problem making money and r better positioned than the $3 plus shares. So there is no
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: I think that's a pretty good entry. I bought some at the same price. It really all comes down to storage report tomorrow.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: incentive not to buy at these giveaway prices. I will trade the low shares till the higher shares r able to be redeemed.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Got fill on another chunk at 2.89. I like that number. Reminds me of an old friends 65 Mustang with the 289 that would really run!
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Here we go on Gold. Broke below 1315...
      2/19/14
    • shopvac20: finally added at 2.88 for DGAZ ... Looks like gold just took a turn south, good to see for DUST, trying to make a HOD
      2/19/14
    • Steven Couche: Will finish in the green, Fed is having second thoughts
      2/19/14
    • gaklaw: Maybe 4.97 was top for April NG...
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: I'd be surprised if it was a long-term top. Certainly could be a short-term top
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: CNBC just mentioned traders say NG at 7.00 not out of the question...goodness i hope not on this wave up...need pullback to reposition first
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: GDX just broke below yesterday's low. Needs to get under 26 and close there!
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: DUST has not seen 21 for past 3 days but there now
      2/19/14
    • gaklaw: Jeremy - if that happened, would likely drop us to around 2.5 in DGAZ. painful, but incredible buying opportunity
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I needed $22.30 to break even in DUST on core shares if I did nothing. But by daytrading but by daytrading, my average is 20.85. I took
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: off half my core at 20.90 but will buy them back a bit lower to average down further. Looking like we r toppingshort-term finally n gold
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: Yeah gak I would have to go tap another tranche of cash and buy at 2.5 for sure
      2/19/14
    • gaklaw: Don't think you're going to need it...ready for green pastures ahead
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I was not patient enough early on today in DUST but I think I was persuaded too much by all those gold stocks on the buying on weakness list
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: DUST is holding in so well, decided to buy back the shares sold at 20.90, at 20.75 and will hold this core for 23 to 24 hopefully or higher
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: At least my JDST is popping some...
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I only have half of the DGAZ shares that I want to get, but I will wait to see if I am able to buy on further weakness in morning, or maybe
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I will have to throw them in on the rally. NG is very one way direction up or down. When it turns, could get a rally in DGAZ that lasts 4
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: or 5 days in a row. I want to make some $ on this trade as we r at extremes that should be highs of the year when it tops over next 60 days
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: NG tops I am talking about. CNBC just mentioned $7 but that is a pipedream. But could get a bit more rally this week
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I was very conservative when we traded from 2.43 to 4.67 and I left a lot on the table. I was careful as it was too early time wise to call
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: for an ultimate top. It looks like we are now in the ultimate topping phase in NG and should top out for year over next 60 days. I want
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: to catch the bottom and ride DGAZ for a great win. Need to get the timing just right so I will be studying and watching for the turn.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: Today or this week could be bottom in DGAZ but when I say 60 days, that is the worst case scenario. More likely Feb. peak
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: in Nat Gas and low in DGAZ. By last week or February or 1st week of March, all bullishness n NG should be priced in and surprises from then
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: on are bearish surprises for NG and bullish surprises for DGAZ.
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: until I see a true reversal of NG (lower top, lower low) then it has room to run. Short term it likely corrects a bit. we just set a new hi
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Short-term interrupted tomorrow.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: right on beta, that is why I only have on about half my position as I am waiting for confirmation of a top in NG to go to full position.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: GDX just traded under 26.00. The low of Monday in premarket was 5.95.Would like for us to take that low out next and keep falling. Go DUST!
      2/19/14
    • Steven Couche: Does the mini gold selloff continue tomorrow? GLD is bending but hasn't broken yet
      2/19/14
    • glaserdx: sold my GDX shares for 26% gain-- will buyback at lower levels--maybe $20.5-21
      2/19/14
    • gaklaw: Nice - DUST up over 6%...do I hear 10% for the day??
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: gold in 1311s, gdx in 25.80s. Looking good.
      2/19/14
    • vanebfbc: DUST, wow. It offsets some loss from my DGAZ early today. Too bad didn't catch DGAZ at 2.9 but can't say no to a good bounce.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: we filled the gap from Friday's close to Monday's opening and trading. This is confirmation of the short-term top on Tuesday premarket of
      2/19/14
    • Steven Couche: I feel like trimming but now that we broke the uptrend, I should at least wait for more of the correction to happen right?
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: 26.96, yes 26.96 in premarket for GDX Tuesday. During regular session never got above Monday's high, but looking good now!
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Now below 1310. Looks like that suggests we go test support lower. Puts are running nicely.
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: Lovin the JDST rise too and DUST
      2/19/14
    • shopvac20: DUST closing in on 10% I am happy happy happy !! wish i had some JDST to go with it ...
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: told you that if we could get under 26, then GDX could fall quickly. Just dropped another 40 cents and counting.
      2/19/14
    • gaklaw: Did I say 10%? I meant 15% ---go DUST
      2/19/14
    • shopvac20: What is the play from here, are we looking to test 1300 or lower in gold ?? RE are you holding core DUST through close ? into tomorrow ??
      2/19/14
    • glaserdx: just sold my hi-cost DUST; holding other bought 20.15
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: shop RE said 23-24 or higher in DUST so I'm holding until he says differently
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: Can't wait for DGAZ to pop like this soon
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I have my core and not touching it. Will look for a place to add to DUST, not take away. This is the beginning of down move, not the end
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: If GDX retests 26 tomorrow, then I will use the dip in DUST to add. We should get a $40 to $50 selloff from high in gold of 1332. That is
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: an April gold target of $1282 to $1292. We are at $1310 so a ways to go before we get a spot to possibly go long again
      2/19/14
    • shopvac20: Thanks RE and I am with you Jeremy / RE holding strong, I would love to see DUST at 23 to 24 range...
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: The 26.50 to 26.68 area was solid resistance where GDX stopped at. Now it has to find support at lower prices. Next support in GDX is 24.75
      2/19/14
    • zaw77: My weekly $NUGT puts strike $50 is performing with over 150% gain now - but I am holding till Friday.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: When GDX hits towards 24.75 would be a good spot to take profits in DUST. That would be towards 24 in DUST
      2/19/14
    • nclsamy: Robert Edwards, your call was extremely well timed. Thank you very much for posting!
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: 24 to 25 should be your DUST target as minimum now
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I will do an article this evening and post by 7:00 p.m. EST
      2/19/14
    • glaserdx: great-looking forward to it
      2/19/14
    • shopvac20: Fantastic, thanks RE, look forward to the article :)
      2/19/14
    • shopvac20: Great DUST day today everyone --- I am putting in an order for DGAZ to start its uptend tomorrow as well :)
      2/19/14
    • vanebfbc: It was an intense day of actions, but tomorrow will definitely be interesting too. Thanks everyone, especially RE and Grow for the inputs!
      2/19/14
    • Jeremy49: Now need DGAZ to pop big back to 4+ before correction ends in GDX/NUGT and take profits and put them back into heavy NUGT for next wave up
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: since you guys trade commodities. JO looks like it's ripe for a big downswing. Curious if you see the same thing
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: LB - you talking about coffee? Haven't looked at it lately but I have a neighbor in that business if we need some fundamentals input too.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Will take a look to catch up.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I have already added in the aftermarket in DUST at 21.60.
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: yeah, coffee. I'm short JO, short NUGT, and long DGAZ heading into tomorrow. Fingers crossed
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: i'm actually probably most confident about the JO short surprisingly enough
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Checked out the charts on JO and CAFE (Coffee ETF's) LB. Wow. Those are some spikes! Have you been trading these? I've got to ask my
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: neighbor his views on this spike. The move, store and distribute coffee all over the world and hedge positions periodically.
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: I haven't been trading it, but have been eyeing it for a pull back and my indicators suggest it's overbought. praying for commodity selloff
      2/19/14
    • andalcie: That..Island reversal on $IAG Friday on the Daily chart? Here's why, Revenues >10% down. Always a reason for chart behavior. Bearish Harami?
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: LB - Sure looks like you are positioned well from the chart - may just have to be patient. Will let you know what I hear from my neighbor.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: New article published on DGAZ here - http://seekingalpha.com/p/1lmu7
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: cool thanks. unfortunately i already jumped the gun a bit and shorted JO at around $32 before it spiked to $34+
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: New article and thread, click http://seekingalpha.com/p/1lmon
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: LB - Did you short with an inverse, with puts or short shares of JO? From charts given some time, you should be good on that one
      2/19/14
    • losingbeta: I shorted shares of JO
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: OK. So time is an element with the carrying costs. Hope to see the correction you are looking for tomorrow or soon!
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I did not anticipate GDX would be as strong as it is, but with all the buying on weakness stocks of yesterday, there is interest in buying
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: the dips in miners and so may have to zigzag lower instead of falling all at once. Still believe DUST will be much higher by Monday
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: caught some more DUST 20.46 so will sell some DUST shares again on rally above 21
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Just exited a call position on SGEN for nice profit. Had a good move going into and following the earnings report. May look for re-entry if
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: we get the pullback I'm looking for there.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Gold still bumping up against what is now resistance at 1315 (yesterdays support) and lower bound support now at 1309 at the 200 day MA.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: I would think we see strength while the 1309 level holds as support, but watch it break down when we break below 1309.
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: some are saying gold will hold 1307 (100 day average I think) thru the weekend when Europe IMF will make an announcement or somethingr
      2/20/14
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