Seeking Alpha
  • Robert Edwards
    Gold & Miners (GDX) (GDXJ) (NUGT) Finally Have A Down Day $GDX, $NUGT, $DUST http://seekingalpha.com/p/1lmon
    2/19/14
    Reply (143)
    • D-struction: Hate these levered positions.
      2/19/14
    • Lefty6x6: ya cant hate em...ya gotta luv em.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: Love em - just make sure you are on the right side of the trend. D-struction, stay on this forum for input from Rob and all collaborating
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: and you will have an advantage to be on the right side.
      2/19/14
    • Growfast: I've got some puts on JNUG and loving this down move. Should have further to go if Gold continues to correct a bit.
      2/19/14
    • Lefty6x6: D-struction : between RE, Grow and others, your odds of turning that hate into love increases exponentially. Stay tuned.
      2/19/14
    • gmanwicksy: How many down days before she flips again?
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am looking for 3 days down before it bounces, although we might get a small snapback rally in morning that fails. Good rule of thumb is
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: to switch to the real cheap one (DUST right now) because cheap gets the pop, while expensive gets the knockdown. When DUST was at 55, NUGT
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: was at 24. Now NUGT went to 52 and now 46s, and DUST dropped to 19.50 but now 21.63. It is DUST time till NUGT gets back in buy zone.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: Too early to determine the buy zone on NUGT as we r just now starting the correction. In 2-3 days we will know a lot more.
      2/19/14
    • Robert Edwards: Was able to sell DUST 21.87 to 22.00 in premarket, but buy back 21.54 to 21.45 on a good number of shares. Will continue to buy dips but
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: sell out on strength. Today should see 2-way action with pops in GDX causing dips to catch some DUST. One can even scalp some small NUGT
      2/20/14
    • dan1981: RE any foresight for Dgaz ?
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: DGAZ is hard to predict in here as we are in a major nasty short squeeze and hard to call the turn. I have been buying small and then
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: selling 1/2 to 2/3rds DGAZ on small intraday rallies to keep exposure light and book some profits. This has worked well and I am about
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: broke even despite the current low prices. In case they pop April NG as high as 5.50 before the roll over to May NG contract, I am ready
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: to add to DGAZ as low as $2 if it should fall that far and my average at that point should be no higher than $2.50, so a quick pop back to
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: $3.50 to $4 would be quite profitable. Could be more pain ahead but end with nice gain but need to try and lower ave. price to 3.50 for
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: safety reasons. I am very bullish below 3.50 and want to add on weakness but be smart about it and not go crazy buying till we see turn
      2/20/14
    • Lefty6x6: ok, I've got to get in on this DGAZ thing with you guys.....
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: GDX is having a pop in here but should have trouble going up much past 26.00 you would think. I am buying some DUST in here.
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: The other day I bot PBR 11.34, 11.24 and 11.14 for average of 11.24 which i held as a core position. Today I sold out at 11.31
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: Did not like the fact emerging markets closed down yesterday. Still looking for a place to buy but will buy CLF today on dips instead as I
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: am bullish CLF 21.50 and lower and should be bouncy on dips as has been true recently.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: I'm working some trades on CLF as well and thinking we should see it back above 23 in the next couple weeks or so.
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: Bot DUST 20.90 and will continue to add on dips
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: bot DUST again 20.43 and will buy again at 20 if it should choose to hit that low.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Bot more JNUG puts.
      2/20/14
    • vanebfbc: Philadelphia Manufacture Index is really bad, so today may be a gold day.
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: Sold some DUST 21.06 and 21.08 bot all the way down to the lows of the day. Now will add again on weakness or sell more on further strength
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: On the current uptrend we are on day 9 which is often an up day, but still expect Friday and Monday to be down days. Just got to get thru
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: today if holding DUST and should be rewarded Friday and Monday when DUST should boom
      2/20/14
    • vanebfbc: A few minutes before NG storage report. Does -251Btu seem a bit too much considering most of the states had mild weather except northeast?
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: Just noticed that my 21.08 order did not get filled, stopping at 21.07 but will keep order there to take profits while buying 20.60 or lower
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am looking for bearish report
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: -250 bcf on report. Adjustment to increase stocks from last period up by 7 bcf.
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: I have sell orders in DUST 21.25 and every 25 cents higher. Buy orders placed 20.60 and every 20 cents lower.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Pretty much in line with estimates from what I gather.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: DGAZ to 3.16 and working on a climb - at least relieved the report wasn't a bigger draw than expected.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: One more bullet taken away from bulls. Next week should be a good bit lower with the warmer weather this past week. Headed bear direction.
      2/20/14
    • losingbeta: you almost get the sense current NG prices required a much bigger draw than estimates to support the current level.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Some re-thinking of positions likely taking place for sure, LB.
      2/20/14
    • vanebfbc: Since NG draw is roughly inline I do expect a couple of minor drops later today to add to position.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: The 250 bcf draw was in line with expectations but now the 7 add back adjustment to last week is causing a bearish twist.
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: Bot DUSt 20.66, will add every 20 cents lower
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Added more JNUG puts.
      2/20/14
    • shopvac20: Miners are enjoying today's action .. Tough for dust ... Dgaz needs some life pumped into it as well !!!
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: I'm with you, shop. DXY (USD Index) is up, Crude down after supply data - should come around to help us.
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: After first real down day, they bot miners but as long as we don't take out yesterday's high, should weaken late & go down next 2 days
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: today was another day where NUGT and DUST could have been bot successfully with NUGT being a better buy than DUST so far.
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: I expect next two days to be more DUST days but again, once DUST rallies, NUGT might become a buy again. 2-way action right now in miners
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Lefty has got to be loving this. His story comes out nicely every time we hit a trading range for a bit. When we break out, he goes fishing.
      2/20/14
    • Steven Couche: I bought more, this is really getting out of hand for me haha
      2/20/14
    • gaklaw: I just saw that my DUST 20.20 order filled...now, let's have a repeat of yesterday afternoon
      2/20/14
    • dan1981: I don't see Dgaz above 4.50 with warmer weather at max. Dgaz already priced against April contracts.
      2/20/14
    • vanebfbc: DGAZ back to 3 and NG March contract pushes to 6.18. I think people are betting April contract will end way above 5 next week.
      2/20/14
    • zaw77: $NG - Report was not bad, the weather is warm with better outlook for weekend, demand is low - what's going on ?
      2/20/14
    • Toastypro: Kept buying DGAZ and DUST but it fell further down after the order was filled, all red today
      2/20/14
    • Steven Couche: Gold battle, let's see who gets exhausted first, bulls or the bears? Have to think the bulls have bought alot in the last week
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: DGAZ, for NAV, is now trading against the April contract. And, Vane, I think you are right that some folks are thinking the April contract
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: will be bid up somewhat higher (to partially close the Mar/Apr spread). Others are thinking Mar will fall to close the gap. The warming
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: trend and heading into injection season, I am thinking is bound to bring down Mar some soon. If April gets bid up, would offer new buy opp
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: at lower DGAZ prices. Before then, would like to get a better pop in DGAZ to exit some of position for the reposition, in the event we get
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: that opportunity.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Right now, these dynamics make it a tricky play. If Mar contract starts to fall, even if there is not much movement in Apr contract, I think
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: DGAZ will move bigger than some would calculate based on the turn to bearish in market sentiment.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: RE - FYI, studying charts on Gold. 200 Day MA = 1310.8 after close yesterday. 100 day MA = 1269.6 and 50 Day = 1246.75. Those will be key
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: levels to watch.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: If we break below 1309, we may potentially be looking to go back to test the 100 day at 1269. That was big resistance area for us on way up
      2/20/14
    • zaw77: thx, Grow
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: In DGAZ, where the money is really made, is in the Price/NAV expansion similar to P/E expansion on stocks once market sentiment goes bear.
      2/20/14
    • shopvac20: tough day for.. like toast said, I am seeing a lot of red today. RE / Grow, are we seeing any todays action in gold cause of Ukraine?
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: thanks grow, 200 day not 100 day at 1310.80. I think Ukraine is supportive gold but funds still buying on dips and yesterday was nice dip
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: I suspect this is just a bounce from yesterday. Still holding to range of support and resistance and working against a rising USD. Taper
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: coming. And, Gold still overbought.
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: some are saying gold needs to hit 1340 first and then it can drop to 1280. they think 1309 will hold or 1300 and we pop to 1340 first.
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: however, if 1340 it hit or 1360, I see a major correction of at least 75 to 80 dollars before we shoot for 1400 plus. Just my opinion
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: today is still inside day up in gdx which is bearish for Friday. Better than 2 to 1 chance we close down Friday and then lower Monday too
      2/20/14
    • Steven Couche: That's no good, this has to happen by next week!! I am all in on DUST 22 Feb28 calls right now
      2/20/14
    • Steven Couche: What's the high from yesterday we can't violate for GDX?
      2/20/14
    • Jeremy49: RE if gold goes to 1340 first before correcting does that change your estimate on short term top for GDX? Will it go to 28 if gold 1340?
      2/20/14
    • gaklaw: he means lower in GDX, which would be up in DUST....
      2/20/14
    • gaklaw: right??
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: 26.56 was yesterdays high in GDX we don't want to break. Looks like gold just might be topping for today and turning down. If so, we could
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: get a good move downward.
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: No, if gold went to 1340 then GDX would probably take out 26.68 high and would stop 27.50 to 28 most likely. Hopefully it does not happen
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: Grow is right that we don't want 26.56 taken out today. and also a close below 26.30 would be great
      2/20/14
    • Steven Couche: So today is supposed to be the momentum bounce and then the next 2-3 days will be buyer exhaustion? Just trying to get the idea right
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: NG falling down a bit. Now about 6.0.
      2/20/14
    • shopvac20: grow, what charts do you look at .. the one i look at still shows 6.15
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: interactive chart here: http://bit.ly/1meQcfA
      2/20/14
    • Steven Couche: If GDX breaks 26.56 do you bail
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: From that site, you can view the futures strip, interactive or streaming charts for any of the contracts etc.
      2/20/14
    • davePx: I may be crazy but just picked up some Dust on a gamble....
      2/20/14
    • davePx: Good chart Grow thanks!
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Perhaps crazy in a smart kind of way.
      2/20/14
    • shopvac20: Thanks grow ! Looks like gold just took out yesterdays high ?? 26.50 in GDX, whatta bummer day for us DUSTers
      2/20/14
    • davePx: Thanks for the article today RE this one is hard to call today, I can se why you switched to going both ways
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Even if we make the move to 1340, the turn should get you green in the not too distant future. And, if we don't get to 1340, you are in for
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: the correction
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: I will not bail on a break of 26.56 because could just be running of stops. Friday will be critical and don't want to see 26.68 taken out.
      2/20/14
    • davePx: Looking for late day weakness on gold to make a bit up for the DUST deterioration...
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: 26.68 can even be taken out if running of stops and close back below 26.68. Close of today and tomorrow is critical.
      2/20/14
    • Steven Couche: I just can't believe after a 9 day, 35% run the miners get a single 3% day pullback and off to the races again
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: We had a high of 26.42, then 26.43 an 26.44 and eventually 26.54. Would like to see us close under 26.40 so all top buyers are losers.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Added some more JNUG puts.
      2/20/14
    • zaw77: $NG Mar14 - should go down now to 5.74
      2/20/14
    • glaserdx: Grow- can you say what time period and strike you are using to buy the JNUG puts?
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: I'm adding right now to my 30 and 31 puts expiring tomorrow. Buying cheap in here. If you don't have a position, may be better to get
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: longer time frame - at least next Friday. I'm just lowering my basis in anticipation on current positions and, if we don't get the move I am
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: looking for tomorrow, I will roll them forward and maybe up too if JNUG goes higher.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: A move even just back to 1309 in Gold tomorrow would make these nicely profitable.
      2/20/14
    • glaserdx: ok thank you
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Closed my CVI 37.5 calls for nice profit. Tomorrow, calls I sold 42.5 expire worthless it appears so I keep the premium. Collect .75/share
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: dividend announced. That has been a nice stock to trade around a small holding.
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: For those who follow BioTechs, I think the charts are starting to look good on ALNY and ATHX. Do due diligence on fundamentals. I'm long on
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: Just hit 26.72 so they ran the stops above 26.68 and made a new high on this move. Will be interesting to watch the close
      2/20/14
    • shopvac20: OUCH for today .. DUST was a big bummer .. tomorrow is a new day, and hopefully DUST can have a gainer.
      2/20/14
    • Jeremy49: RE add to DUST position here before close? Or wait now since it broke above 26.68
      2/20/14
    • Lefty6x6: shopvac: I'm in DUST avg 20.25. no worries, nugt / gold will blow off and come back a bit. maybe tomorrow. Always has...always will.
      2/20/14
    • gaklaw: took a gamble and increased DUST holdings 30% with a buy at 19.04
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Interesting. Doji on the Mar NG contract. Should signal reversal tomorrow and that should help DGAZ some. GDX hit high but can't hold it
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: GDXJ and JNUG did not get to highs. Different that GDX was performing as it was. Charts still look like we should trend lower in GDXJ/JNUG
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: Now Gold, you took out stops, looking for you to turn and go the other way....
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: Looks like GDX closed about 26.65, or at worst 26.66, which is below the old high of 26.68, small victory. Big stopper at 26.75 sold big
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: and stopped the rally dead in its tracks for today. Need the stopper to return tomorrow as well to knock back down. Someone wanted to take
      2/20/14
    • Steven Couche: The good news is there's always tomorrow
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: GDX chart almost trying to show us a bullish uptrend, but if Gold pulls down, that is going to break down.
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: profits today in a big position and got to do it by selling 26.75 and helping to knock back a bit on the close. Today's action does not tell
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: we r now going to 28 straight from here. Tomorrow will be interesting.
      2/20/14
    • Jaybone20: so tomorrow GDX will be up again till 28 at which point it becomes overbought?
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: I will let RE respond with his view. Mine would be, watch the price of Gold for the clue. The GDX chart today showed a little bullishness
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: which could indicate up, but I think it is very vulnerable. If Gold is up, GDX may continue to rally. Gold down, GDX bull trend on chart
      2/20/14
    • Growfast: will break down.
      2/20/14
    • shopvac20: Grow, I have to think all the unrest in both Kiev and Venezuela is going drive gold higher, what are your thoughts? i have DUST @ 20.50 avg
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: My current thoughts are that we might get another 50 cents higher in GDX on Friday, but may not hold it into the close. Either way I am
      2/20/14
    • Robert Edwards: still looking for a correction lower. Thursday was Day 9 of the current rally and we should roll over starting early next week if not sooner
      2/20/14
    • Jaybone20: n on a possible cup and handle formation. If we correct over the next couple of days I plan to buy around that price point..
      2/21/14
    • Jaybone20: Please correct me if my analysis is wrong but if JNUG corrects I see it moving to close the gap at 27.32 which would also be a 50% correctio
      2/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Exactly Jaybone, we could fall to as low as $25 on a correction in JNUG pretty easily I would assume.
      2/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Wrote a new article and started a new thread, click http://seekingalpha.com/p/1lqhd
      2/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Some have asked what sites I use for information, and I can just refer them to this article. http://seekingalpha.com/p/175tk
      2/21/14
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