• Robert Edwards
    Teeter/Totter Time In $NUGT, $DUST, $JDST, $JNUG. Following $GLD, $GDX, $GDXJ, $DGAZ, $UGAZ, $NFLX, $FEYE, $CLF, $TWTR, $TSLA, etc.
    7/19/14
    Reply (499)
    • Robert Edwards: This is the new thread for the week. Here is the article on the metals, just posted: http://seekingalpha.com/p/1u095
      7/19/14
    • Growfast: Thanks for the updates and analysis, RE.
      7/19/14
    • glaserdx: Robert- thanks again for the explicit guidance.
      7/20/14
    • shopvac20: NG getting beat down again this morning, jeepers, we knew it was going to happen, gave up to early, then went long way to early :(
      7/21/14
    • sderenthal: Went long wayyyy to early. Didn't think it would get beat down this much.
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Yes Shop, very disappointing. Nat Gas is looking like it may not be tradable. They don't call it the widow maker for nothing.
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Nat Gas turns when it feels like it. Overshoots the tops and bottoms a lot. I don't like it now until it retakes $4.00. I am shocked by
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: the overnight weakness. Someone must know something. I am throwing in the towel on the trade for now and waiting for a better spot.
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: I don't trust any support level in Nat Gas to hold right now. Too late to go short, too soon to try and go long. Busted trade for sure.
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: The price action is saying that there is so much gas waiting to come on line, there is no reason to rally and we could see $3.00 before we
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: bottom, if we bottom even there. Best trade now is probably to look for a spot to buy DGAZ when DGAZ dips a bit or just leave it alone!
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: I totally missed the boat on this one. That winter rally we had was apparently a fluke of nature and meaningless in the long-term.
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am extremely bearish Nat Gas right now and would not dare step in and buy after the action I saw overnight! Nat Gas, get off my screen!
      7/21/14
    • Tatt2d: RE - Your first post in this thread is taking me to Ugaz article, not metals
      7/21/14
    • shopvac20: Ouch ... Guess that one is in a holding pattern :-( .. Flipped on a dime before maybe it will do it again. I am disappointed w my position
      7/21/14
    • John Tiwari: Food for thought: AmericanBulls.com gave a SELL signal for UNG on June 19/2014 and have stayed in cash ever since.
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Shop, if Nat Gas immediately rallies back above $4 or fills the gap left from over the weekend, then a bottom could be in. Otherwise no good
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: UGAZ chart is quite interesting. RSI is at 22.65. Stochastics almost off the bottom of the chart. Charts don't work on NG much of the time.
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: This, 15, was my next buy target level. Not sure I'm going in yet on another round at this point. But, if we don't get some strength, I'm
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: going to bale and wait for an entry when the bottom is clear. Which with NG can mean, you wake up one morning and missed a big move to the
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: upside. Just seems there are easier, more predictable trades to make. This one has been frustrating all year long.
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Today could be similar to 11/04/13. If true, then today with this gap could be the bottom, and starting tomorrow we rally and fill the gap
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: I want to see the gap left over the weekend to be filled before I buy. I will continue to monitor to see if the negativity is reversed.
      7/21/14
    • glaserdx: UGAZ stop @ 14.50
      7/21/14
    • Tatt2d: Any guesses which way Dust/Nugt is going to decide to go? I got small positions on both just waiting on which to commit to.
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am doing research for an article on deep water oil drillers like RIG, NE, ESV, SDRL, etc. On any oil weakness, these could be good buys
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: JDST is under performing DUST so far today. Looks like the Market isnt sure which way things will go.
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: Technicians and Geopolitical Traders seem to be at odds so far.
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: Look forward to the article, RE. Energy holdings have been doing well for me. ESV was mentioned in a positive article I read over the
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: weekend. That article was suggesting moving out of RIG and into ESV.
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am thinking we might get a bounce off 3.80 in August Nat Gas. It just made a new low at 3.83
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: I just bot back in August Nat Gas 3.828 on dip to 3.827 and will add again towards 3.80 to play for bounce back to 3.90+
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: The gap left today could be partially filled in next day or two, at least should try and fill it. Could get a short-term oversold bounce LOL
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Breaking below 4.00 in nat gas, one would expect to see a retracement back towards 4.00 in near future, but no bullishness seen yet at all
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: In the last 2 years, UGAZ has never been this oversold. But, I guess that comes after extreme prices during winter we have not seen in 2 yrs
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: If we get the bounce, I am expecting one in the neighborhood of .4 to .5 points in NG upwards. But, we'll see
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: CLF was downgraded by JPMorgan today. Big deal. I am looking to add on any dip below 15 and like the recent technical action. I rarely
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: will listen to a downgrade analyst and typically look to go the other way, but usually wait till the following day to buy so Tuesday will
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: be watching CLF for a spot to buy in then.
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Was long 2 Nat Gas contracts a tick off lows of day and sold out one for a dime ($100 profit) to reduce risk but will buy again on weakness
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Copper never got to my buy area of $3.15, but early weakness overnight was bot up. I joined in and made nice profit in copper today
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Will continue to buy dips in copper and hope it does fall a bit more down to 3.15 but I can buy in 3.17s or 3.18s as well
      7/21/14
    • Jaybone20: Interesting that jp downgrades when clf hired them as advisors only months ago.. That just sounds fishy!
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: It was 11 tick profit which after commission works out to ten ticks in Nat Gas but I wrongly called it a dime. It was actually a penny.
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: I rarely get rattled but I have to say that I was extremely disappointed in the overnight weakness in Nat Gas. On further reflection it
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: would appear that the gap down is capitulation selling and if it is, I need to reposition lower and fight to get some of my investment back
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Regardless of the lows seen in 2014, I would think the prices in future years will be well supported at the $4.00 area.
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: RE, have you ever written about Options Trading with the Leveraged and Inverse ETF's?
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: Or has anyone for that matter?
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: Another question for my fellow traders out there is what platforms and research tools does everyone use when analyzing the direction of the
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: markets and where they think things will be going?
      7/21/14
    • Toastypro: Double down on UGAZ 14.85. Took some beating this time. It's going to be a long wait till it turns but I had to load it to average down.
      7/21/14
    • Lefty6x6: toasty... it's like standing in the batters box, knowing that the pitcher throws heat at 98 and he's gonna come at you high and inside...
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: Sold my other Nat Gas Contract for 20 net ticks, 2 cents ($200). Will watch for overnight weakness to buy again, down to $3.80
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: Anyone have any thoughts on the gold miners today. Having a hard time making moves and judging where things are heading into the close today
      7/21/14
    • rxraider: Made a few bucks from $NQ today. Looking at going long $NFLX into earnings this afternoon, and going short $HLF.
      7/21/14
    • Toastypro: Have to sweat it out in the betting cage and may be a self inflicted injury or at best serious bruises
      7/21/14
    • rxraider: Gold and miners are elusive to me recently. It's hard to tell the direction. I'm still averaged at $14/share in $JDST. Ouch!
      7/21/14
    • zaw77: Agree rxraider - I watching now, staying out today, we will see tomorrow
      7/21/14
    • rxraider: Bought very small position in $NFLX (only 5 shares, lol) at 452.10. Maybe it bumps to 470 with a beat and a raise?
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: JDST shares are going off the cliff, with no fundamental reason why in my opinion. Gold price has held steady all day, and no real changes
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: in the geopolitical side of things.
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: CPI gets published tomorrow. Perhaps traders are positioning for tomorrows report?
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: It may be because BoA and Merrill Lynch came out with announcements they think the worst is over for Gold. But, I'm now more bearish as a
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: result. Bring in the money, then drive the sell off.
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: Just have to watch though, could go up on continuing geopolitical crisis. Don't think inflation in the face of interest rate increases will
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: have much effect; at least not for long.
      7/21/14
    • rxraider: RC, JDST tracks $GDXJ, which is up over 1% today. I'm not liking the action in JDST either. Don't know if I want to continue averaging down.
      7/21/14
    • Steven Couche: rx, I'm cost averaged in to JDST around 13 for a large position, whenever it jumps sell some calls to help with the decay. been working
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: I'm cost avg. in JDST @ 12.82 for a large position. I am still looking for a drop in the price of gold one more time before I go long w/JNUG
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: We started that drop last week, but the situation in Israel and the Ukraine caused a dramatic change. I hope this reverses soon & Gold will
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: still test the 1280 area before it goes up for its seasonal rise.
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: I don't see anything especially bullish in gold right now so I agree with you RC, it is very conceivable to see another selloff below 1300
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: I would not panic holding DUST or even JDST right now. However, if Gold sells off 2-3 percent then I would expect to see a big pop in JDST
      7/21/14
    • Robert Edwards: to take at least half off if not all and switch remainder to DUST. Aug Gold is not doing much to the upside, could not retake 1320 today
      7/21/14
    • glaserdx: looking to sell a weekly GILD short put tommorow; need to check pemiums
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: Glaser - you want to do this going into earnings on Wednesday? Are you anticipating an earnings miss, or choosing a strike you would love to
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: buy the shares for if you get them?
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: Nice pop in NFLX; may be time to take some profits
      7/21/14
    • glaserdx: Grow - looking at $84 strike, maybe lower based on prmium - but would be ok to be assigned
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: Got it. I have GILD on my watchlist. 85 or lower looks pretty good right now. I wanted to get at the Volumetric Moving Average 81. If it
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: pulls back after earnings like it has several times, that just might happen. If not and price goes up, you'll be glad you sold the puts.
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: 81s closed at .26.
      7/21/14
    • Growfast: Sorry, 84's closed at .68 today.
      7/21/14
    • Tatt2d: Im still in with both DUST and NUGT- couldn't pull trigger on either.
      7/21/14
    • Tatt2d: From what i feel on this thread, it appears gold is still in the downtrend?
      7/21/14
    • rxraider: Tatt, I thought gold would be in a downtrend. I believe the downtrend was broken due to recent geopolitical events and the Fed's statements.
      7/21/14
    • rxraider: Now, gold seems wishy washy. Hard to get a handle on it.
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: Raider, it is my position that geopolitics are short lived and eventually they do taper off, allowing trends to continue in the direction
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: they are supposed to go. If anything, when they do go in the proper direction, it is even more exaggerated because of the removal of the
      7/21/14
    • RCamuti: geopolitical threat.
      7/21/14
    • rxraider: RC, you make a good point. I'm holding a large JDST position and have been wrong. Would be nice to see gold reverse trend.
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: Gold was cheap early, dropping to 1305 and later 1302 in premarket on August Gold. Then few minutes later pops to 1317. Skanky!
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: Palladium got in the 860s this morning but now back to 873. With Palladium acting weak and coming off highs, decided not to buy gold this
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: morning on the dip but now kicking myself. Did buy Nat Gas on the dip to just under 3.80 in August NG. Bot 3.801 and now 3.825
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: Also bot copper overnight on minor weakness and got a nice pop on it of over 3 cents ($750) per contract. Will keep buying copper on dips
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: Just sold Nat Gas August at 3.828 bot at 3.801 for profit of $270 less commission on one contract. Will keep buying dips on this dog
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: Gold was knocked down to 1302 today on 3500 contract sell order, and then rallies to 1317 on 7000 contract buy order. Outside of these
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: large orders manipulating the price up or down, gold does not move much at all. Makes trading gold very frustrating for most.
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: Nat Gas has moved well off lows. If it could turn to the positive side today, would be quite bullish as it would be a reversal, ot there yet
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: Lets see if Gold can break support now at 1300.
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: NG is showing a bit more strength. Needs to get a more bullish stance.
      7/22/14
    • donnavet4pet: I sold 20% of my UGAZ at a $7/share loss. I probably should have sold more but I am holding out hope for a rally.
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: Getting out may turn out to be the right move. I'm still evaluating at this point and if determined that we can re-enter later at lower
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: levels, then we'll exit the current small position and look to get in after bottoming.
      7/22/14
    • donnavet4pet: Thanks Grow for your evaluation.
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: ADEP strong again today. FEYE cranking - funny thing is, when I meant to go long last week, I accidentally bought puts instead of calls!
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: Sold the puts at a loss yesterday before the rally when I noticed the price action was not driving behavior I expected in the option! Can't
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: believe I made that mistake. Was a great time to go long when I bought. Will look to make sure I don't do that again.
      7/22/14
    • donnavet4pet: Grow, I hope your FEYE calls more than makeup for the error. It is a good reminder because if a season trader could make that mistake,
      7/22/14
    • donnavet4pet: how much greater the chance for a newbie like me......
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: This is an easier mistake to make with options, I think, as there are more variables to work with. Often before I enter an option position,
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: I have modeled various simulated options, have option chains up and there are just a lot of moving pieces. But, I have seen others make
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: entry mistakes on orders - market order instead of limit, selling an entire position on click rather than portion of position, entering
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: wrong number of shares to order and finding they have 1000 and used all their cash rather than 100 etc. Online is so easy with a few clicks
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: but, certainly good to be very careful as easy can mean easy to make mistakes too.
      7/22/14
    • RCamuti: JDST looks like its falling off of a cliff right now. Anyone know the reason why?
      7/22/14
    • RCamuti: I see gold is on the move up right now, what has changed in the last half hour to cause this dramatic move?
      7/22/14
    • donnavet4pet: Thanks for the reminders about potential entry errors.
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: Exited small UGAZ position as no good bounce appears to be materializing, technical are broke and I'll wait for the bottom. Should have held
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: DGAZ but normal seasons are not good for DGAZ in summer. Strange year this year.
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: Better trades to be made elsewhere....
      7/22/14
    • skysurfer83: I m going to hold $UGAZ for the long haul at this point. will prob add more if drops under 13.
      7/22/14
    • skysurfer83: Confused about $JDST tho, was hoping for a quick drop in gold to $1300 to get out but I am now stuck waiting on that too
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: Often before a drop in Gold, there is a bit of a rally. If Gold intends to go lower, it will do so regardless of any short-term strength. I
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: suspect we should know if it wants to go lower in the not too distant future.
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: What the chart says at present: RSI neutral. Stochastics neutral. 50 Day MA - 1293; 200 day MA - 1287. From technical perspective, could go
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: either way. Fundamental shifts (if they impact sentiment), or sentiment alone, will determine whether Gold runs higher, goes down to test
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: support, or breaks lower support. I'm still thinking the forces may take us to break the support - but, if that happens, it is not going to
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: be easy with both MA's in relatively close proximity. We would need Gold to behave like NG and just slice through all the technicals
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: Back from lunch. I fortunately was flat overnight so I did not get caught in the downdraft but did buy Nat Gas off the lows.
      7/22/14
    • shopvac20: I am still holding my UGAZ, Grow, you said it, we should still be holding our DGAZ ... bummer !! ohwell, looking for a little relief from
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: I believe that when 4.00 is taken out, one should expect a retracement back to 4.00 soon thereafter. Still fighting the fight but it is
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: starting to get annoying to say the least. Fortunately made good money today in copper and small amount in gold
      7/22/14
    • shopvac20: summer demand, but also nervous to get into the fall where the heat will drop & the demand will drop before the winter months, idk how low
      7/22/14
    • rxraider: $JDST = frustration for me. Put in buy order for $FCEL last week at 2.02 and didn't get it. Now it's 2.60...
      7/22/14
    • shopvac20: it can go... I can see a demand coming back into play this winter, and if we start exporting... but this is months away (winter) and
      7/22/14
    • shopvac20: exporting is still uncertain - but as it often does, NG can turn on a dime ... the looongs have been waiting a loooong time.
      7/22/14
    • rxraider: Made $6 (after commission) on $NFLX last night. Geez. I may trade $AAPL earnings tonight and keeping some for long term hold in IRA.
      7/22/14
    • rxraider: The further $UGAZ drops, the more interesting it becomes. Started a small postion at 15.95 last week. May buy more below 14.
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: 12 should be next view of a support level and the way technical have been violated, we may even take that out in the Fall cooler months.
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: But, if buying in now, I hope you are getting near the bottom - or, are OK for a longer-term hold which I think will turn out profitable.
      7/22/14
    • ag5059: Is it a good timing to buy $UGAZ?
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: Earlier Nat Gas rallied 3 cents off the low of the day. As long as I can get a rally to unload some and then average down on the next dip
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: then I am fine. I am doing fine buying today as we have had corrective rallies. I am going to keep fighting Nat Gas from the long side
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: even if we fall to 3.75, 3.70 or 3.60. Surely we bottom at one of these levels. Eventually I will be fine if we get a cold winter, LOL.
      7/22/14
    • sderenthal: This upcoming report on Thursday should prove to be very bearish as last week was very cool.
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: sdernthal - that was one of my considerations for choosing to exit UGAZ today. I think we have opportunity ahead to buy in lower. No need to
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: get in too early. Thought we might get a strong bounce, but that didn't materialize in the time frame I expected.
      7/22/14
    • glaserdx: I got out of UGAZ yesterday @14.80; waiting to see if I get a fill on $84 GILD short put
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: I will be flat thru the report. No need to get killed thru that. We did not rally today as hoped for.Could be headed for 3.70 in Aug NG
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: Usually Wednesday is higher on short-covering and sometimes even Thursday morning. I am playing for the short-covering bounce going into
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: Thursday morning. No bounce yet but surely some nervous shorts maybe. What is the expected injection for Thursday? First Enercast at 97
      7/22/14
    • shopvac20: I have not seen to many predictions yet, a lot are rolling in towards the high 90s.. Could go either way, waiting till low 13 or 12s to add
      7/22/14
    • shopvac20: to UGAZ postion
      7/22/14
    • shopvac20: this week is very hot down here in Houston and next week is hotter ... lets see if we can grap a little break .. find even then rebuy lower
      7/22/14
    • glaserdx: Also expect my $34 WFM short puts to expire worthless on 8/1
      7/22/14
    • shopvac20: NES is moving well for me today, looking for it to continue bouncing from 17 to 18.50
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: Last Wednesday, Aug Nat Gas popped 6 cents off the low of Tuesday. I am going to play for a similar 6 cent pop in the futures. Way oversold
      7/22/14
    • rxraider: Interesting technical note: current $DGAZ RSI (Relative Strength Index) is 82 (overbought). Current $UGAZ RSI is 20 (oversold).
      7/22/14
    • rxraider: Nat gas November low was around 3.59. UGAZ low in November was 11.92. I'll be looking to pile into $UGAZ over the next few weeks.
      7/22/14
    • shopvac20: and UGAZ hits 13s
      7/22/14
    • skysurfer83: just stacking up UGAZ for the winter. Will add at 13.5 (possibly Thu after reports) Still waiting for JDST to pop back...grrr i hate waiting
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: At 12, I may consider buying back in. Then, will again look for lows in Oct/Nov/Dec time frame. No guarantees this winter will bring us the
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: thrills this past winter brought to the UGAZ longs....
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: Actually, when I re-enter, I may go into BOIL so I can use options along with the trades to sell puts and calls.
      7/22/14
    • skysurfer83: Does anyone follows GASX? Not moving much... but I odnt quite get it
      7/22/14
    • skysurfer83: Agree Grow, but looking at how low inventories are compared to last here, and possibly exports should raise NG prices
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: exports will effect in late 2015. Other than long-term fundamental support, shouldn't have near-term impact.
      7/22/14
    • rxraider: Appreciate your thoughts, Grow. I want to buy the bottom and not 'catch a falling knife'. Will be patiently watching for lows in UGAZ.
      7/22/14
    • rxraider: $AAPL earnings report on deck. May listen in and decide to grab some for a longer term position ( sell around Thanksgiving).
      7/22/14
    • sderenthal: If we get a small rally tomorrow in NG I am debating picking up some DGAZ for Thurs report.
      7/22/14
    • RCamuti: After reading several articles and studying several charts over the course of the day, it is this traders opinion that gold/gold miners are
      7/22/14
    • RCamuti: in the beginning of a down trend. With all of the geopolitical tension out there gold has failed to sustain its current rally.
      7/22/14
    • RCamuti: Demand in China and India has continued to fall, even though it is still much higher than the historical norms. The dollar is starting to
      7/22/14
    • RCamuti: mount a meaningful rally as the economy continues to improve, and with the Fed tapering set to end in October, interest rates will be set to
      7/22/14
    • RCamuti: rise in the not too far off future.
      7/22/14
    • RCamuti: The big question will be if the Asian gold buying season will show the strength that will cause gold/gold miners to rally higher. Sentiment
      7/22/14
    • RCamuti: seems to be that it will not be as strong as originally anticipated, due to the calm monsoon season in India.
      7/22/14
    • RCamuti: Does anyone else in this Stocktalk have any opinion or technical analysis regarding the direction of gold/gold miners?
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: Supports how my current small position is set up. Question is, where do the big banks that control the markets want the price to go. If
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: their positions will benefit from going lower, we'll likely see it. If they are positioned long, we'll get teased but go up. But, based on
      7/22/14
    • Growfast: BofA and ML at least, they stated they thought the worst was over (to bring in the funds), so they can take it down and clean up.
      7/22/14
    • Toastypro: Larry McDonald's contrarian call on the natural gas - this may be a buying opportunity. http://yhoo.it/1p8g8sI
      7/22/14
    • Robert Edwards: Got a 6 cent rally off the lows in NG similar to the action last Wednesday. Bought into the lows and now sold out and ended up a winner
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: despite the weakness that worsened after the close yesterday. Now flat and will probably stay out until after the Thursday report
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: Copper dipped overnight and allowed me to get long Sept Copper under 20 and to sell out over 21 so another profitable copper trade.
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: After rallying 6 cents off the low, NG has now fallen back 3 cents losing half of the pop. That is not good. I am not going to buy due to
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: the injection report coming out Thursday but I may buy on Thursday after the report on further weakness.
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: I have been studying to determine the downside risk in Nat Gas. It would appear that NG could fall to 3.45, from the current 3.80 area
      7/23/14
    • donnavet4pet: RE What does that price put UGAZ at if NG falls to 3.45?
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: 35 cent drop on 3.80 is nearly 10% so UGAZ could fall 30% from current prices of low 14s to about 10.00.
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: On a very short-term basis, NG could even fall to 3.10 to 3.25 but should quickly rebound to the 3.65 to 3.75 area.
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: I would say that 3.10 would be very, very low probability of less than 5% but not impossible. That would be a short-term low of 7.00 UGAZ
      7/23/14
    • Lefty6x6: Looking to get back on the Ignaz/dgaz teeter totter. Targeting entry points of 4.20ish and 12.00ish respectively. Report tomorro
      7/23/14
    • Lefty6x6: UGAZ .... I can spell.
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: If 3.10 was hit in NG, a price not justified on the amount of gas in storage this year compared to higher levels in the past a bounce of 20%
      7/23/14
    • Tatt2d: Lefty- What trading program/platform are you using? It has streaming quotes?
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: would be a 60% rally from 7, back to 11+. Eventually NG could and should return to 4.50 which would be another 30% rally in UGAZ to 14.30
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: but that might take 6 months or more to get UGAZ back to 14+ Eventually, long holders of UGAZ willing to suffer through many months of pain
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: should again see 14+, even considering slippage as NG could easily spike to 5.00 or higher and could get UGAZ to 18+
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: If NG stops falling at 3.45 or higher, then UGAZ never falls lower than 10 and the upside potential is greatly enhanced. Bulls don't want
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: to see 3.10 in NG as that would cause UGAZ to fall to a low multiple that would hurt the long-term range UGAZ could attain.
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: When August Gold has a 1305 or 1306 handle, I buy, and sell out 1307 or higher. Then with 1309 or 1310 handle or higher, I go short, and
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: buy back 1308 or lower to take profits. Worked great last few days. Getting frightened the bottom will fall out at some point so feel
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: more comfortable shorting than going long gold in here. Feel like gold needs to return to 1290 to 1285 minimum & base down there maybe
      7/23/14
    • shopvac20: looking for reentry in to nugt/dust, last trade with JDST was successful for me, feeling some pain in NG, at least we have stopped bleeding
      7/23/14
    • shopvac20: at the moment ... need to reevaluate. With the current heat wave across lower texas (houston heat index will hit 112 today and - next week
      7/23/14
    • shopvac20: we might get a little bounce in ng prices, however I dont put much trust in the "summer demand" for ng
      7/23/14
    • donnavet4pet: Do you think there is half a chance with UGAZ up today that the injection report would be favorable for those still long in UGAZ.
      7/23/14
    • fwsk: N.G. http://1.usa.gov/I5XkZL
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: So far we have rallied 6 cents off the bottom, a very low bottom at that, and nothing more, like last Wednesday, and they killed NG on Thurs
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: Need to rally late today and also into the report. Last week we fell off late in the day on Wednesday and weak going into report
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: I believe the strength today is better than a continued selloff and I want to buy on weakness post report, but does not say anything yet
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: about post report reaction tomorrow. Watch late today and morning action for clues. That will tell you something maybe.
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: Nat Gas was strong there for awhile and nearly took out the HOD (high of day) but failed and now fell back hard, very sad. Should have gone
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: short Nat Gas near highs but looked strong, but then failed like usual. So far, looks depressingly weak for post report reaction
      7/23/14
    • dan1981: Hey experts any views for trip advisor ?
      7/23/14
    • skysurfer83: back down to 3.8. Do you think is already taking into consideration tomorrow price after report? If so the swing might not be to big right?
      7/23/14
    • sderenthal: Last week it seemed like price was taken into consideration pre-report and swing was still huge after report came out
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: A good slam down after the report may provide a good long opportunity holding through to the winter season.
      7/23/14
    • shopvac20: what are the estimates for the injection report tomorrow ? still high 90s ?
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: Hard to believe we lost the entire rally today and just bounced off the lows of the day. I am definitely waiting post report to buy
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: It is looking like price is meaningless. It is money and momentum and when all bulls are broken, and broke, then it will bottom.
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: Nice reversal in JDST today, RE & Grow, what are you expectations for the miners for the next two days? I am hoping to unwind my position.
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: I think price is just a placeholder with little if any meaning in the Nat Gas market a majority of the time in cash, almost never futures
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: I can buy copper where it has bottomed recently and support means something No one to provide support to nat gas futures pricing though
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: and prices get sliced thru like hot knife thru butter. The smaller inventory at start of year remains meaningless. Otherwise we would
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: have stayed above $4.00. We are approaching pricing of last summer and last summer the inventories were at record levels.
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: We will have relatively tight inventories going into winter but no one seems to care. I believe cool weather in summer already priced in
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: but continue to fall more and more. At the rate Nat Gas is falling, we could see $3.00 in another 2-3 weeks if something does not change
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: My best guess is we take out $3.70 tomorrow as support and fall to $3.65, with $3.60 hit Friday. Monday we hit $3.50 where we might bounce
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: back to $3.65 before next Thursday's report where it gets killed again and we see $3.45 by Friday of next week. Would not surprise me a bit
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: if NG is this weak, based on action I have seen so far. Not predicting, just venting steam I guess.
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: Today candlestick pattern in NG is a gravestone marker which can be bullish. Would require a strong rally tomorrow to be confirmed but I am
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: not holding my breath on that one. I don't see an up move post report for another month.
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: I think Nat Gas or UGAZ can be bought intraday for quick scalps. Don't see anything positive yet on holding overnight or few days or weeks
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am very disappointed we would double top 6 cents off bottom and the bottom is so low but we are closing on weak side. I am more upset
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: about today's action than Monday's action. The only thing that will rescue the bullish picture is a strong up day tomorrow
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: Need to see strong action prior to report Thursday morning, retesting today's high or beating it, then we might rally post report. If we r
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: weak overnight and in early morning, not a good sign as bears are not short-covering and r totally confident in post report selloff IMHO
      7/23/14
    • sderenthal: Only way I can see us having a strong up day tomorrow is if the report comes in below expectations. Roll of the dice I guess.
      7/23/14
    • Lefty6x6: my cat just told me that DGAZ flys thru 5.00 tomorrow, pushing UGAZ down to 12's or lower. but then again, my cat is really not that smart
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: Very sad they extended the selloff yesterday about 3 cents extra on late day selloff, and today rally back 6 cents, only to lose it all.
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: Could be wrong but I agree with your cat. another almost 100 bcf injection shows that refill progress is being made at record pace
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: We are doing gravestone marker candlestick today which could be very bullish if we rally tomorrow.
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: Little in the near future to drive the price up much and NG prices are not being traded to coincide with technical. last year there was a
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: decent little bounce from Aug lows only to return to the lows in Nov.
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: Gold is up at resistance now, miners are pricing in going lower it seems. Tonight/tomorrow we may see the test of 1300. Would love to break
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: My biggest regret was not shorting at the first high of the day as it came right into my 6 cent rally zone, and then not shorting on retest
      7/23/14
    • skysurfer83: out of DJST for a nice 12% ROI. I guess DGAZ before report thu and hold till monday before getting back into UGAZ. Not sure about gold
      7/23/14
    • zaw77: Grow, not yet, I bought $JNUG at 25.51 for tomorrow :-)
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: I'm looking for JNUG at 22 or lower. We'll see how Gold behaves.
      7/23/14
    • skysurfer83: do u guys think weaker demand in china an india or geopolitical tension in ukraine and israel will have more impact on that 1300 resistance?
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: Not sure those are much of a factor. Prices, I think, are held up at present based in Ukraine and Gaza tensions. Demand is talked about
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: quite often, in Gold, but rarely affects Gold as predictors prognosticate on. We are in the backdrop of coming into interest rate increases
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: controlled inflation, strengthening economy and global stock markets and that's not good for Gold. Caveat: Gold will go where big banks want
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: it. Appearance is, they want it down.
      7/23/14
    • rxraider: skysurfer, I sure don't know. But, thinking about all the geopolitical tension the world has thrown at gold, it remains range bound for now.
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: GILD blew out estimates, but is flat in AH trading. Odd; I guess this was all priced in.
      7/23/14
    • rxraider: The US dollar index (.DXY) rose a bit today, which is good for gold bears. Seems to be good support for gold around 1305.
      7/23/14
    • rxraider: With a large position in JDST, I would like to see gold break support and drop.
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: FB is cranking after earnings beat.
      7/23/14
    • rxraider: Grow, $GILD is a quality long term hold. And FDA approved blood cancer drug. I liquidated GILD for cash to trade other positions.
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: RE and Grow, what are your thoughts about the price of gold for the remainder of this week and early next week, considering the options exp.
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: for August gold is Monday.
      7/23/14
    • Robert Edwards: gold is fighting hard to stay above 1300 so someone must b supporting it on dips. Eventually support should give out but when?
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: My thoughts based on analysis is that gold will stay around the 1300 area till the Monday exp. After that we could see a move either way.
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: The 1300 support area might just be that at this point no one wants to take more risk till the exp. passes.
      7/23/14
    • shopvac20: loving the Facebook action ... I have held steady since $28 bucks a share ... still going :)
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: 1300 Support busted. Now lets roll....
      7/23/14
    • Growfast: If Gold can take out support at 1293 and 1287, we've got some room to run.
      7/23/14
    • shopvac20: nice call on gold grow, lets see what happens through the night... gold red and ng green, thats what i like to see at the moment
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: Grow, Raider and I are with you all the way for the downward move in gold/gold miners. Lets hope we hold this one to close the week strong.
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: I have anticipated this downward move for a month now, but as usual I have been way to early in my trade. Lefty teeter trade would have
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: served me well the last two weeks.
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: Like i said earlier this week, when a market is moving in a particular direction and geopolitics change the course, generally it does
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: correct itself and many times causes the original directional move to be exaggerated.
      7/23/14
    • rxraider: Maybe gold/miners dip as tensions ease overseas. Gold is 1297.80 currently. Good for us bears!
      7/23/14
    • davePx: What is possible is for gold to tank...really tank! and NG to start up on a scare it will be an extremely cold late summer fall winter
      7/23/14
    • davePx: With refills ongoing targeted to reach normal levels only
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: Other big news today, Newcrest Mining is down 4% because it may write down $2.4 billion in assets, China PMI strong. US employment up next.
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: Raider, you and I have been waiting for this type of movement since the Malaysian Airlines event last thursday. We were on our way till then
      7/23/14
    • RCamuti: Lets hope we keep this overnight momentum going till the close friday. I am long JDST avg. 12.82.
      7/23/14
    • Jeremy49: I was waiting for this move as well...if it wasn't for Putin we may be below 1280 and on our way toward 1250 by now in gold w big JDST pop
      7/23/14
    • donnavet4pet: I am going to sleep now hoping gold keeps dropping....
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: Bought copper on the close yesterday at support below 3.21 and caught a big move up overnight. All dips are a buy for next couple days
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: Gold has slipped below 1300 but not showing much downward momentum as there remains a solid bid under the market.
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: Nat Gas did not keep falling and is showing some strength this morning. Not bullish but removes a bit of the bearishness. Maybe NG holds
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: in pretty well following the morning inventory report. If heavily long UGAZ instead of selling out 100% thru the report, maybe 50% long
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: is OK, realizing that the chances of weakness is still probably a bit more than rallying post report, despite today's strength. Even if
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: we do sell off, maybe we bounce a bit since we are extremely oversold and much of the bad news should be factored in now or in near future
      7/24/14
    • dan1981: Trip advisor nice puts yesterday !
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: If I was in UGAZ in a big way, I have not position by the way, well I would either sell out of half of my position pre report at a loss or
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: I might also buy enough DGAZ to be balanced on the remaining UGAZ. Then on a down move post report, take profits on the DGAZ and hold UGAZ
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: 3.70 or 3.65 to add back my UGAZ sold at a loss. In no way would I own more DGAZ than UGAZ at these low levels however. That would be
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: going out of the frying pan into the fire.
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: Palladium is back in the 860s after being in the 880s a few days ago. Recently, Palladium has been quite bouncy once it falls
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: into the 860s so on hard dips, I plan to buy Palladium as it is much stronger than gold and I may then short gold on gold rallies to lock in
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: profits. I believe Palladium will gain on gold over the next several months. Gold remains the weakest of the metals.
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: 1293 support now broken on Gold. 1287 is next test.
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: great morning so far, looking for HERO and NES to change directions. I added HERO yesterday then read Buffet bought 8.8 m shares too
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: Buffett probably bought because he is following you, shop. :-) Some of your calls lately, that wouldn't be a bad idea. Like holding FB
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: Glad to see NG making an attempt to retest the highs of yesterday. It may not mean a lot post report in 20 minutes, but better than new lows
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: Sold some MCP calls. Still holding a small position to see how MCP weathers upcoming storms and work through the turnaround. I'm still on
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: losses but have been cutting them more and more selling covered calls off rallies.
      7/24/14
    • glaserdx: Grow- nice call on GILD - pop & drop
      7/24/14
    • skysurfer83: Grow, do you think it wil break through 1287? I havent seen any supporting news but what I learned here is that BIG BANKS win
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: Sept NG just took out yesterday's high by 3 ticks. If we rally post report then the bottom should be in for now in NG as it will complete
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: the gravestone marker bullish pattern. Glad to see some strength in NG finally. Too bad skankiness of last couple days burned me out
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: Gold ran the stops under 1292 left from the recent low, falling to 1390.60 in August. Now switched to trading Dec Gold.
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: I am thinking we will at least make a run on 1287 and looking for Gold to break through. In here though, we have to watch closely. Many
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: traders may trade the support levels which may give it rallies. if you are on profits, you don't want to give too much back. But, I'm
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: still looking for a break of 1287
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: Glaser, if you are holding GILD stock already, I hope on that pop you sold off some covered calls. If you watch the charts through a
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: pullback, you will want to sell off some puts. And, if you want to ensure you get the stock off the puts, just sell some that are in the
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: money a good bit at the bottom and you'll collect a good premium and still get the stock if it rallies a little off the bottom.
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: Good rally on NG. Report coming up in 3 mins. Going to be very interesting to see if it causes rally or fall back.
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: Gold at 1289 and going for the test on 1287.... This is a key level to see if we can break
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: 90 Bcf injection. Could be fairly decent for NG.
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: Taking out yesterday's high by a bit prior to the report, was the tell that we were going to have a bullish report for NG.
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: Don't look for this rally to hold much past today though based on all the bearish sentiment, so anyone in DGAZ for protection can probably
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: take DGAZ off at a profit by Friday or next Monday, and then look for a low to buy more UGAZ.
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: We maybe already saw high of day. They will say that 90 is still a high number though a bit less than expected and start talking about
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: next week or some other factors. A few numbers either way has little long-term effect and bearish sentiment kicks back in shortly
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: Gold now down to 1287.50 in nearby August. Expect to see a bounce back to 1295 area where I may try to get short using Dec Gold
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: NG already has fallen 5.8 cents off the high hit just after the report. Today or Friday we should make a short-term high IMHO
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: Not sure if this matters, but Caterpillar said this A.M. that it "sees no sign of uptrend in mining", i am sure news like that does not help
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: any of the mining sectors.
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: NG already selling off. The trade was shorting right after the report, or buying DGAZ on lows
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: Skanky nat gas fell to prices lower than when the report was given to run stops again, and has now rallied.
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: I prefer to play the futures of NG rather than DGAZ or UGAZ and I have lost confidence n the integrity of the price discovery of the futures
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: Ill be happy to manage buffets cash if i get a % lol :) NG looks pretty good, shot up, shot down, did we find enough support for .,..
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: a little rally ??
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: The bullish gravestone marker candlestick pattern is being confirmed with a strong up day so technically we could be seeing a bottom.
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: After all that took place before the report, I am still not convinced the bottom is in and look for a top today or Friday but who knows.
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: Its amazing how the gold market came right back to where it was exactly one week ago before the Malaysian Airlines Crash. Its frustrating
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: how headlines can destroy a trade, especially when fundamentals are ignored because of them. Nothing in the market currently is supporting
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: higher gold prices.
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: Copper futures is a market with real integrity. Movement is predictable and I can buy or sell without fear of a sudden unexplained reversal
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: and support and resistance levels appear to be meaningful, unlike NG.
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: Grow, I am looking at some option trading on FB now that it is hitting new highs again and I think after a little rally we could fall back
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: to the mid 60s upper 60 .. but I dont want to sell my current stock, would I put a "put" on this ?
      7/24/14
    • rxraider: RC, totally agree about the headlines and gold. Yellen comments and Malaysian Airlines crash propped gold up. Enjoying JDST rise today.
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: Same here raider. Like i said Thursday last week, I wish i had more cash in the coffers as I knew it was a buying opportunity.
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: Would love to have dropped my average price down more and traded myself into the black by now. I need to listen to RE and Lefty on teetering
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: so that I have cash ready for just a situation like that.
      7/24/14
    • rxraider: When JDST was below $10 last week, I thought about doubling down, but was too fearful. I try not to let fear and greed cloud my trades.
      7/24/14
    • rxraider: Still averaged at $14/share in JDST, but feeling better about it as gold breaks support.
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: shop, you have a couple trade options. I'm assuming you are at this time only interested in selling or buying calls or puts and not spreads.
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: At the tops, you can sell calls that are a little out of the money for good premium. If at expiration the stock has continued up above the
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: strike, the stock could be called from you. But, if you made the right call on the top, you'll keep the premium and the stock.
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: Selling puts you want to do at the bottoms. If you are buying, you want to do the opposite. Buy puts at tops, buy calls at bottoms.
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: If you would lose the stock, you can always look for the opportunity to sell puts to get back into the stock. Taxable account considerations
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: of course, if you are concerned about tax implications on losing a stock being called away from you. Personally, I like to make gains and
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: pay taxes. I have never had a year I paid high taxes and had a bad year :-)
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: RE, great insights on Copper. I need to look at trades around it. NG has been schizonphrenic, non-sensical and very unpredictable. Even Gold
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: as fickle as it is, is easier to trade then NG.
      7/24/14
    • Toastypro: Working gas in storage was 2,219 Bcf, July 18, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 90 Bcf
      7/24/14
    • Toastypro: The net increase fell short of consensus estimates of 98 Bcf
      7/24/14
    • glaserdx: Grow - I hear you but I didn't get my fill in GILD and now don't like the s-t premiums for the short puts. Raider- JDST moving your way
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: Can anyone give us a run through of all of the Resistance and Support levels for gold futures?
      7/24/14
    • nick1913: Is their chance dgaz go green in a week above 4.8
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: Great, thanks Grow... I will look for the opportunities to start my option trading :) appropriate the knowledge Sir..
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: On the small intraday rally, now short on NFLX.
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: wearing taxes as a badge of honor a better way of looking at it then most lol love it!! (still dont like giving away my money lol)
      7/24/14
    • Toastypro: Off topic: Nokia is back on track to improve sales and earnings. It was trading $2 range in 2013 to $8.30 today, soon 10ish.
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: God willing, I am moving to a place in January where i pay ZERO taxes on all capital gains...do any of you know where I'm talking about? :-)
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: Tax holiday is for new residents until 2035...if I make 100k next year I keep every cent. Hate taxes as they are wasted by the govt
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: And they are too high...20% max rate on the high end and perhaps I would stay in US.
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: Some of you guys should make the move with me LOL...have our own trading community
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: Where are you moving to, Jeremy? And, how are they going to make up for taxing you in some other way?
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: All profits/income on 3x miners NUGT/DUST/JNUG/JDST etc no tax burden, no wash sale rules, etc. Compounding trading account so much easier
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: Grow, the tax is that one has to leave US for 6 months of the year which many are not willing/unable to do. 183 days and one is a resident
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: So the tax is not monetary but more of just an inconvenience to leave the US for part of year, which I don't mind if I pay no taxes
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: It is the only piece of land on the earth an American can go to pay no taxes on capital gains, dividends, and interest income....
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: Ok enough suspense...I'm talking about Puerto Rico. Check out its recent legislation Tax Act 20 and 22
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: I have already picked out a resort community there with golf courses and tennis courts and right on the beach. Don't even have to give up
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: my US passport...and I don't mind living there Nov-April during the winter when it is perfect weather there and come back to US May-Oct
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: And another benefit, real estate there is dirt cheap so a contrarian play on real estate as well. Places going for 1.2m 3 years ago now 600k
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: PR never came out of real estate crisis of 07/08 and market is very depressed. With these laws Blackstone and many other PE firms are
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: Never been to PR, but would love to visit sometime. The setup sounds great if you can swing the seasonal requirements. Beach trading. Hmmm
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: setting up shop and taking advantage of new laws. They are investing more than 2 billion there in next 2 years.
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: 4% is max corporate tax rate as well on earnings. Regular income/earned income no tax incentive to being there. Same high tax rate as US
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: Haha Grow...other than Tijuana, I have never left US in my life. I will find a way to like it there for no taxes. I mean it is not Siberia
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: Cannot wait for beach trading LOL...def can do that there. People that make way more than me trading would save so much. Robert move to PR!
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: Robert Edwards island of trading success. Free beachfront seminars. All you need is: Register, laptop, trading account and beach attire.
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: It has to beat most of the ads and mailings I get for such things.
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: I have been to PR, loved it, beautiful there.Sounds nice to get away from taxes& wash sales, two of the things i hate most in this world
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: but today I am loving JDST and UGAZ !!
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: and I just noticed NES with the big reversal I called this morning :) happened faster then I had anticipated !
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: Hahaha Shop..."taxes & wash sales, two of the things I hate most in this world." ME TOO! Loving JDST today as well
      7/24/14
    • Jeremy49: Haha Grow we need to trademark "Robert Edwards Island of Trading Success"...hope RE is listening.... :-D
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: RE is always listening... hes our fearless leader !!
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: update, I am loving JDST, UGAZ, FB, and NES today !!
      7/24/14
    • dan1981: Americanbulls was buy dust yesterday and long dust today.
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: whats the call on gold moving forward ? seems to have found some support around the 1290 area ? could we make another run at breaking 1287
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: I believe so, shop. As each support level is broken, the technical have to catch back up. The fact that we have not rallied and held here,
      7/24/14
    • Growfast: suggests the most likely next move is to go down to test 1287. I think when we do, we are going to break through to the downside.
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: JDST and DUST are both climbing at a nice slow and steady pace, nothing erratically up that would cause any downward pressure so far.
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: nice, thanks grow, what is the next support level under that ?
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: 80 cents away from the even mark, the big question is, how far can this drop in gold/gold miners go.
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: Shop, don't mean to chime in, but to me it looks like the next support levels are 1280, 1278, 1255, 1248, 1240
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: The last half hour will be vital in showing where traders are positioning for the overnight and tomorrows trading day.
      7/24/14
    • ricejudicata: That last ten minute of trading didn't exactly inspire confidence re DUST. So pathetically weak lately.
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: Gold didn't really make any sort of rally going into the close. Holding the 1292 price for the moment. Durable goods tom. could be the mover
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: I always watch to see if a market closes below a previous low. Today August Gold closed at the $1290 area which was below the $1292 & change
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: Or perhaps Japanese CPI thats being released 730 tonight.
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: low very recently. That shows some negative pressure that Aug Gold could not close above 1292. Looking to short still when hits 1295 but
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: will short Dec Gold and play that now while still charting August until it leaves. I don't trust Nat Gas to hold overnight, but did scalp
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: a bit from the long side when it did a few intraday swings back up. Will be curious if it can build a base or roll over tomorrow to down
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: side. PR sounds great! I used to have a boat but in my old age, I am more into travel trailer. My fantasy is a stealth camper that looks
      7/24/14
    • Robert Edwards: like a pop roof Contracting truck parked in a Wal-Mart parking lot. Great escape and have no responsibilities and just trade and relax.
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: Thanks for the support levels RC ! It will be interesting to watch things develop over night. see if the NG action inspired the bulls 2day
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: Just Relax and Trade !!! love it. I enjoy trading everyday.. And a constant Thank You goes out to all contributes on this blog
      7/24/14
    • shopvac20: I look forward to a day when I can call day trading my day job :)
      7/24/14
    • RCamuti: RE, you got the 1295 level in gold you were looking for so you can go short. Is that still your plan for today?
      7/25/14
    • shopvac20: gold will normally move at the end of the day in london.. I'm looking for a move back down to the low 1290s here
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: i did go short gold RC as expected using Dec Gold trading $2 higher than August, but not making much progress on the downside so far
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: also bot nat gas in sept at 3.800 & 3.774 and wondering if it is going to fall out of bed or hold support
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: covered my gold trade in the nick of time ad we just surged up. looking like they r buying gold dips. solid up move in gold all nite long
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: I will leave gold alone for now. bot copper down 1.2 cents around midnight and woke up to sell this morning .8 cents up for 2 cent profit
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: bot again 1.2 & 2.2 cents down today looking for snapback rally later today or monday in copper
      7/25/14
    • glaserdx: R.E. would really like to see an article on the overall stock mkt - SPY. So much talk about mkt top, would really like your analysis. I know
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: palladium is supporting gold. corrected $25 from 880s to 860s and now pushing back up closer to 8.80s again in PA
      7/25/14
    • glaserdx: you focus on metals/mining, selected stocks, but would you consider?
      7/25/14
    • glaserdx: left out other various commodities, etc. as your focus, buy you know what I mean.
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: I have thought about the overall market and do have some thoughts to share. I will try to do an article on saturday
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: I have been looking at the economic calendar for next week, and it is going to be one of the biggest market moving weeks we have had in a
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: yesterday I scalped gold from the long side when it dipped below 1290 in august. today it is acting very well supported
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: I should have been buying today but don't like buying on strength as I don't trust it selling off. acting like it wants to go higher tho
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: while. Monday: Pend Home Sales & Mfg. Survey. Tuesday Start of FOMC, Case Schiller HPI & Cons. Conf., Wed. ADP, GDP, & FOMC
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: Thurs: Weekly Jobless Claims, Employment cost & Chicago PMI. Friday July Emp., Pers. Inc., PMI Manu. Cons Sent., ISM MFG. & Const. Spend.
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: Based on the recent data released, it is this traders position that gold will be pushed to the down side as the US economy cont. to improve.
      7/25/14
    • glaserdx: Thanks Robert.
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: Also, the dollar continues to show strength against all other currencies, and recent reports continue to say global demand for gold is weak.
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: RE, do you concur with the first resistance level for gold being @ 1303? Last week you made a great call on where the gold miners were going
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: on the close friday. Do you have any opinion on the close this week?
      7/25/14
    • Growfast: Took some profits on NFLX short and will look for re-entry.
      7/25/14
    • skysurfer83: after god profits yesterday on JDST, does this looks like a good time to buy back in or waiting till Monday and see what happens?
      7/25/14
    • skysurfer83: good profits on DGAZ too btw. Waiting till monday to sell that prob
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: The question is, does gold bounce off of the 1303 resistance level, and head back down? Or does it stay around 1300 till options exp. Monday
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: RC, gold worked down over 5 days, culminating in the big down day yesterday. Now looks like we are going back up 2-3 days to 1310 to 1315
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: Hard for gold to get ABOVE 1315 in august GOLD but also hard to move down below 1290, big sideways nothing right now
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: This is day "1" and Monday or Tuesday we should top out and I plan to short into that top but scalping from longside till then, buying 1300
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: since we r back above 1300. very steady climb starting last night and no selloff at all today. Worried about war overseas, strong bid
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am not as sure as I was last week, but I am looking for strong rally late today in gold and miners. No one wants to be short over weekend
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: If we dip a bit here then I plan to play from the longside going into close. may not move as much since strong all day already
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: bot sept palladium today and sold out 880. Every time PA dips into 860s it is a buy. Expect copper to pop on Monday, along with gold
      7/25/14
    • skysurfer83: any thoughts on NG RE? I am feeling greedy w DGAZ after missing out last week on huge jump. I sold out at 3.22 few weeks ago and still
      7/25/14
    • skysurfer83: feel like i wanna bite my hands off. But last time I got greedy I got burnt lol
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: RE, does that mean you are of the belief that gold continues higher before to 1310 or even 1315? With the dollar only gaining strength it
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: I don't want nat gas to fall out of bed and we could get a nice rally on Monday if we can just hold in here. However, after Monday, I might
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: turn bearish and buy DGAZ. I am hopeful Thursday's report allows for strength to return on Monday but if we rally and roll over, I am want-
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: seems odd that gold would continue higher in the coming days and weeks. Obviously you know more of the technical side of things. I am
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: in much simpler and broader terms.
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: ing to go short nat gas as we could fall still to 3.70, 3.60 & 3.50. Monday needs to be strong and take out some resistance and Tuesday
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: needs to be an up day too. Otherwise, if Tuesday we start falling hard next week, then we are probably moving lower. If we move lower we
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: could drop 2-3 weeks. So in review, trying to go long Nat Gas today n hopes of a Monday rally and then looking for Tuesday likely top & down
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: RC, when there is worries in the world they buy the US dollar and buy gold and they both rally for few days together then gold falls back
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: Fear trade is time both dollar and gold can move up and down together. Without fear, gold would have been weak. With fear, gold up steady
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: if dollar weaker then gold would be up much more than it is. rally very short-term in gold
      7/25/14
    • zaw77: Robert - I would appriciate your opinion re $CLF today - another quarterly earnings loss was reported yestarday, but over 5% up today
      7/25/14
    • zaw77: I am long with avg. $14.85 - would like to hold till 17-18 is broken.
      7/25/14
    • shopvac20: HALO is bumming me out lately, ever since it hit mid 10s it has just dropped consistently
      7/25/14
    • shopvac20: HERO is turning back north today, good to see that action
      7/25/14
    • skysurfer83: yes shop, HERO was a good buy yesterday ar 3.69. Holding that one for a while, hopefully will head back to low 4s
      7/25/14
    • skysurfer83: Thanks RE, wished I sold more JDST yesterday, now cost avg is 11.21, might play JNUG till tue and swing back into JDST on Tue/Wed.
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am bullish when CLF trades below 15 but I am not confident in holding higher than 16.50 to 16.80
      7/25/14
    • skysurfer83: Just not sure if I should hang on DGAz over weekend. Still have sum UGAZ but will keep that for the long run at this point. just want to
      7/25/14
    • skysurfer83: free up sum cash to play swings next week, but as i said last time i did that DGAZ kept going n missed out on great profits
      7/25/14
    • donnavet4pet: Skysurfer I bought HERO yesterday, too at 3.69 and want to hold it as long as you do as my usual MO is to sell too quickly
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: HERO has had a ton of insider buying of over the last few months, which is a bullish sign. Holding for now is not a bad idea at all.
      7/25/14
    • glaserdx: Rob- in your experience, do you give much credence to gold seasonality? http://seekingalpha.com/a/1e8gl
      7/25/14
    • Lefty6x6: looking to pick up some JDST at 10.50 to hold into next week.
      7/25/14
    • Growfast: If it gets there, I'll add to my current position as well. This rally isn't doing as much as I thought it would to add lower.
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: I am a firm believer in seasonals in gold and other markets
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: Looks like you got your 10.50 price.
      7/25/14
    • Lefty6x6: got sum, adding more at .30 if it gets there
      7/25/14
    • Growfast: Got fill on adding to my position.
      7/25/14
    • Lefty6x6: ...and 10 even too !
      7/25/14
    • skysurfer83: picked up some JDST at 10.07
      7/25/14
    • RCamuti: Israeli's are widening the ground offensive in Gaza. Causing a much bigger flight to safety to hold over the weekend.
      7/25/14
    • Growfast: One more surge to get me in for more...
      7/25/14
    • Robert Edwards: NUGT popped big in last 10 minutes of trading right on schedule
      7/25/14
    • Lefty6x6: teeter on the morning pop.....totter on the closing pop....
      7/25/14
    • zaw77: Crazy could sold $JNUG with $1 gain bought day before yestarday drop, switched to $JDST at $10.01
      7/25/14
    • glaserdx: missed my 9.95 JDST fill
      7/25/14
    • vanebfbc: Back in JDST with you guys. Also bought a bit of MNKD for rebound.
      7/25/14
    • donnavet4pet: 50% of long NUGT was able to profitably sell so sold just in case gold goes down; the other 50% is @ 47.80 so holding over the weekend
      7/25/14
    • glaserdx: will try AH for JDST
      7/25/14
    • shopvac20: I will be holding HERO till about 4.50 then reevaluate... stock has good fundamentals, seems to hold true to its trading range
      7/26/14
    • donnavet4pet: Thanks shopvac20....I will do the same
      7/27/14
    • Robert Edwards: Starting a new thread for the new week. See you there!
      7/27/14
    • RCamuti: Shop, I think HERO is a great company, with all of the insider buying they have going on i think the company has a lot of upside.
      7/27/14
    • RCamuti: The only problem I see them having is that because they are an offshore driller, they compete against the fracking companies.
      7/27/14
    • RCamuti: I have been looking at HERO since it hit the $4 mark. and started to buy when it went below $4
      7/27/14
    • RCamuti: RE, see you in the new thread tomorrow, Looking forward to an action packed week.
      7/27/14
    • Robert Edwards: Started the new thread right now RC.
      7/27/14