Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View darturtle's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Greece Prepares To Leave [View article]
    Leave EURO won't deliver immediate economic miracle to Greek although, IMHO, it is one step of right movement. Greek government had better:

    1. Hold a referendum
    2. Spell clearly difficulties will come immediately after the exit (more than current austerity)
    3. Also spell clearly what will happen
    4. It is impossible to stay with EURO but EU nations relax terms on Greek
    5. Spell clearly what government's actions after exit
    Mar 29, 2015. 04:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    ALTR showed weakness in comparison XLNX before this announcement. You can check ALTR vs XLNX before this. Since ALTR is losing out, it is time for ALTR share holders to cash in than stick with INTC.

    INTC's purchase ALTR does help it on capacity utilization. INTC has been expanding manufacturing facilities for a long time but only in recent years, it found that it has difficult to fill them up.

    Will INTC becomes No. 1 in FPGA? I don't think so since XLNX remains strong. ALTR's recent shift from TSM toward INTC failed to gain any market share (actually losing out to XLNX).
    Mar 29, 2015. 04:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel, Micron launch 3D NAND line, promise cost/capacity edge (updated) [View news story]
    Not just INTC, FLASH market leader SSNFL.PK also has:

    How did INTC fall to current position in FLASH? where it doesn't write hardware standard like it in PC industry.
    Mar 27, 2015. 12:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Woes For Intel: Chip, Chip, Chipping Away At Chipzilla [View article]
    FLASH market tells you how competitive INTC really is, especially in its claim of superior manufacturing technology. Why INTC lags behind SSNFL.PK? and others? If INTC's foundries are much better, why in this price sensitive product, INTC lags far behind SSNFL.PK?
    Mar 26, 2015. 07:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Examining The Aftermath [View article]
    People buy stocks for a company's future, not now. I see INTC has little growth potential. Many think that its problem lies on technology thus more R&D will help. I don't think so. I think that it is the underline environment change which becomes unfavorable to its business model. INTC writes PC hardware standard; now ARMH not only writes mobile computing hardware standard, it also charges far less than INTC adds into PC CPU. Even INTC adopts correct reform, it can only survive and decline less. Server is going to be next big challenge as we see many 64 bits ARMH IP CPU enter market now.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Putin's Proposed Eurasian Currency Area Make Sense? [View article]
    It is a way to prevent some of remaining Soviet Republic turn to West. A currency union can be a precursor for re-unite (of course US hate). Forget not, current Kazakhstan president (already 70+) tried to save Soviet Union at last minute right before the disintegration (then also Kazakhstan president). Without adopting Western value, Kazakhstan economy is pretty good. You can surf the web. Although it has very large Russia population, no conflict so far. Check their GDP and you will find out. Foxnews surely doesn't want to tell you a Soviet Republic rejected Western value developed well. If Putin doesn't act quickly, new Kazakh president might not be so friendly.

    Mar 26, 2015. 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Greece Heading Towards A Referendum? [View article]
    EU runs a policy - don't ask; don't tell. As long as Greek doesn't officially default, ECB, central banks, other financial institutions can pretend their Greek bonds still worth 100% of face value. Therefore, their hope is that Greek stays on current path, at least until next election (different dates in different nations).

    On the other hand, they cannot let Greek off the hook. They think that they can handle a small economy like Greek but not Spain and Italy. If Greek government is allowed to borrow to spend, how about Spain (election this year).

    Therefore, IMHO, EU will try to force Greek to stay on course with minimum concessions (no relief to mass; some relieves to politicians). If Greek government refuses to continue pressing people, let Greek defaults and exits. No aid (or some token humanitarian aids) after Greek's default. Let Greek's misery to teach Spanish voters a lesson.

    Will Greek prosper after exit EURO as many claim? IMHO, of course not, at least for a while (count in years). After that, it largely depends on what Greek do after exit. Are those civil servants and union members who voted with tears, emotions, hearts, ... really agree to give up their early retirements? What do Greek produce? even their tourism industry is in pretty bad shape.

    Bankruptcy works for those who can stop borrowing. Don't blame others not funding Greek civil servants' and union members' early retirement. China will NOT help Greek. After Greek PM claimed that he can ask China for help, how much has he got? Who is going to lend to Greek to pay pensions?
    Mar 23, 2015. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. considers working with AIIB [View news story]
    Diplomatic words!

    IMHO, what worries US is if China establishes new rules in international trade, rather than follows rules written by US. US cannot tolerate lose this. If AIIB runs like another world bank (follows world bank rules), it is tolerable to US since China still works inside the frame set up by US (although China gains more influence). On the other hand, as Chinese economy is so big now, it cannot live by US' "new world orders" which dictates what China can and cannot do.

    Why US' TPP is so difficult to finalize? US uses TPP to set new trade rules which were not able to be achieved in WTO. These rules do benefit US but hurts her allies a lot (such as Japan). Member states weigh on and hesitate which make TPP negotiation very slow. One example - US asks others to adopt certain labor and environment standards which sounds good but could kill agriculture in other countries.

    To get TPP go, US actually needs to give first. Only while member states see economic benefits (not just US military protection), they will flood in. What US needs to maintain is the one who sets rules, not get everything at once. Of course, many Americans disagree on this as they feel they are unable to give away more money. Well, without giving first, don't expect get later. US gave generously after WWII reaped good results for decades.

    In US Congress, many Republicans blocked IMF reform bill with wishful thinking. Now, US gets what they don't want. You must give first in order to get later. US refuses to give more but just spend more on military industry complex, at the end, US' leadership will be ruined.
    Mar 23, 2015. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Scrambling To Get Cash Ahead Of IMF Pay Day [View article]
    IMHO, Greeks need to ask themselves - are they willing to reset. The reset means:

    1. Default and exit
    2. Source of credit dries up
    3. Greeks have to work now, not just few people - all, include retired civil servants and union members; not just work, must work productively - many civil servants need to leave their jobs to do hard work. For instance, a philosophizer professor might be fired and asked to be a farmer.
    4. Produce things to sustain themselves and trade surplus with foreigners to gain things they cannot produce
    5. Standard of living only matches what they produce

    Unfortunately, many Greeks voted with their hearts, tears, emotions, ... believing that once they vote, things will be all right. They are not afraid to vote again but are afraid of ... ...
    Mar 22, 2015. 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Or TSMC? Which Deserves Your Investment Dollar? [View article]
    INTC claims a technology - only need to work in one product and pass its own bar (if INTC tolerate low yield, OK); TSM claims a technology - must work in multiple products and pass bars set by customers. In FLASH market, where INTC:

    1. No monopoly via owning product standard
    2. Still expose to its "advanced" technologies

    How good is it? If its manufacturing technology is so advanced, no.1 FLASH maker should not be SSNFL.PK.
    Mar 21, 2015. 07:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Consumption Transition [View article]
    China cannot raise domestic consumption unless lots of people have means and psychology to spend. Currently, wealth concentration is a serious problem in this supposedly Communist country. More credit induced spending only work on relatively small section of people - rich and upper middle class.

    In Chinese rural area, productivity remain low. Although they are far from hungry but still far from rich. Due to past poverty, they are not in mood of borrow and spend plus banks are not willing to extend credits to them. Therefore, to boost their spending, their income needs to boost via boost of their productivity. While their productivity increases, they will have means and confidence to spend.

    More credits only work on those already highly productive rich and upper middle class. Not only their spending already high (thus little room), their additional spending tend to be in luxury goods (lots of them imported).
    Mar 21, 2015. 12:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'The U.S. Is Broke' [View article]
    A debtor's fatal problem comes only while he/she can borrow no more. While he/she can still borrow, there is immediate fatal financial problem. Of course, saying US is worse financially than many other nations is not true. US governments and businesses' abilities to finance are stronger than other nations. The problem lies when US can borrow no more. However, IMHO, that day will come only after many other nations fall first. People still need a place to park their money. You need a bank to park your daily expense besides your investment need. You deposit money in bank account while receive it, withdraw money while you use. It is the same for companies and banks. At least now, there is no currency better than US$ for this. I read that 40% of US Treasury debts are used for park money. This allows US to borrow more than many other nations.

    Park in EURO? what a joke
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pushing On A String: The Fed's Spectacular Failure To Stimulate Housing [View article]
    The administration and Fed are doing two things in opposite directions, both are doing so:

    1. Provide cheap credits and ask financial institutions to lend
    2. Due to scar of previous sub-prime issue, they regulated - if banks blow up again, management will be in deep trouble

    Results - it is all right to extend sub-prime credits but not to housing.
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Europe Now Assisting China In Reducing The U.S. Dollar's Dominance? [View article]
    To become a reserve currency, it must show its worthiness (preservation of purchasing power), not just empty talks, even worthless is nationalism coupled with wishful thinking. To make RMB a reserve currency, it has to appreciate in the long run gradually (sudden jump is harmful). The requires Chinese economy shows better fundamentals, not just credits induced assets inflation (could cause RMB jump if China opens up; or US$ reserve jump if China tries to push RMB down).

    AIIB is a good place for China to use her surplus US$ to gain influence. Through this multinational organization, China can steer neighboring nations' development tilt to her strategic plan. For instance, AIIB can finance a rail road - while benefit the nation which builds it, it also promotes trade with China.

    It is understandable that EU nations want to have their voices in AIIB lending. There could be good and bad intentions but they want be there. IMHO, a key reason is that they cannot come up with big money to do so via IMF, World Bank, and ADB. If they had money, they could have neglected AIIB. Likely, member nations like to borrow from AIIB than ADB or World Bank - thanks to be bad habits of US and some EU nations - terms not related to the project attached to it. For instance, a loan from ADB may ask the borrower to "clean air" at the same time. This "clean air" frequently has nothing to do with local air quality but a code name to stop certain factories been built.

    To gain influence, you need to give first. US did give a lot decades ago which won her friends. Unfortunately, perhaps due to economic issue, US is no longer so generous. Aids and loans frequently attached terms which piss off borrowers. At the same time, US is not willing to say NO to those nations refuse to do right things (need their supports in geo-political issues).
    Mar 18, 2015. 07:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have European Stocks Reached A Turning Point? [View article]
    Think you run an European funds. You might consider:

    1. Is EURO safe? not sure thus if EURO fails, what shall I end up with D-mark? If I want D-mark while EURO fails, what should I buy? of course German stocks (Bund now with negative yield)

    2. Can I and Am I allowed to move funds out of EU? If yes, goes to US$ for the time being; if not, as state in 1, I want D-mark, not Lira, Peso, ...
    Mar 16, 2015. 05:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment