dfloydr's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/6160/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/178992/comments?source=feed#comment-815026 815026
Guess we are a second world country already. As long as dim wits run our services simply determined to milk every penny from what they have rather than grow the overall pie we might be lucky to retain second place. Imagine a NASCAR racer settling for yesterdays best.]]> Sun, 20 Dec 2009 18:31:18 -0500
Guess we are a second world country already. As long as dim wits run our services simply determined to milk every penny from what they have rather than grow the overall pie we might be lucky to retain second place. Imagine a NASCAR racer settling for yesterdays best.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167167/comments?source=feed#comment-722913 722913
Is that so it in ads jingles it can rhyme with hemmeroid?]]> Tue, 20 Oct 2009 23:05:25 -0400
Is that so it in ads jingles it can rhyme with hemmeroid?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160045/comments?source=feed#comment-663610 663610 Sun, 06 Sep 2009 00:01:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143439/comments?source=feed#comment-549723 549723
Talking today to Pulte and Lennar in one of their projects I learned that sales are cooking. From Nov08 to Mar09 they closed about 2 homes per month each. April, May and now June are running 14 closings a month each and they are busily breaking ground on more spec homes to meet this surge of demand.

Valley wide our MLS inventory reached 58,000 at the end of Nov08. That is now down to 33,000 and declining at the rate of 800 a week inspite of any new foreclosures and short sales, and in many of the moderately priced areas inventories represent less than a one month supply.

95% of all closing this year have been under $400,000. Presently there are over 9,000 homes in escrow around the Valley. Some will take a while to close given the chaos at the buyers' lenders, many of which can't get their loan documents out fast enough to meet the closing dates required by the sellers' lenders who have agreed to short sales. Its crazy out there.

The glut remains in high end homes. The various plans coming out of DC have aggressively helped the bottom and middle of the market. DC and the banks have done little to nothing about the high end of the market. We are starting to see price adjustments in the $1 million plus inventory. Some are huge.]]> Wed, 17 Jun 2009 00:26:15 -0400
Talking today to Pulte and Lennar in one of their projects I learned that sales are cooking. From Nov08 to Mar09 they closed about 2 homes per month each. April, May and now June are running 14 closings a month each and they are busily breaking ground on more spec homes to meet this surge of demand.

Valley wide our MLS inventory reached 58,000 at the end of Nov08. That is now down to 33,000 and declining at the rate of 800 a week inspite of any new foreclosures and short sales, and in many of the moderately priced areas inventories represent less than a one month supply.

95% of all closing this year have been under $400,000. Presently there are over 9,000 homes in escrow around the Valley. Some will take a while to close given the chaos at the buyers' lenders, many of which can't get their loan documents out fast enough to meet the closing dates required by the sellers' lenders who have agreed to short sales. Its crazy out there.

The glut remains in high end homes. The various plans coming out of DC have aggressively helped the bottom and middle of the market. DC and the banks have done little to nothing about the high end of the market. We are starting to see price adjustments in the $1 million plus inventory. Some are huge.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140493/comments?source=feed#comment-525333 525333
What happens to the public sector ... demand grows. So what happens? They have to hire.

Shocking. Shocking that people do not understand that is fairly normal.]]> Sun, 31 May 2009 14:22:08 -0400
What happens to the public sector ... demand grows. So what happens? They have to hire.

Shocking. Shocking that people do not understand that is fairly normal.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124537/comments?source=feed#comment-434841 434841
In the summer of 1987, they headed for cash and when the 1987 market collapsed that Fall they were in a great position to buy.

Later I became trustee of accounts under their management. One day about four months before the dot com bubble burst, I got a call while having lunch: would I mind if they liquidated the stockholdings in the accounts. I gave them the green light, and once again they rode out the storm in cash.

Most recently, duplicate sales confirms started showing up in my mail box starting in November 2007 and that turned into a steady stream of sales over the next three months. Today the accounts are mostly in T-Bills.

Sure these sales sometimes incurred capital gains taxes, but avoiding market down turns has more than made up for any taxes paid. And if you do not loose in bad times, you do not have to do anything very spectacular between the hurricanes to do very well overall.


On Mar 06 08:43 AM Dave Shafer wrote:

> So an article was written? What did you actually do for your clients?
> Or is this more hind-sight bias? Did you selectively pick stocks
> to shed before they crashed or did you call for you clients to get
> out of stocks all together? If one were to have some formula for
> getting in and out of the stock market or going long and short then
> publish it and lets see how accurate it is back-tested. If not,
> then it was just luck [assuming you did get your clients out of stocks].
> I think the issue is more about matching mutual funds with buy and
> hold strategies and asset management strategies all the time forgetting
> to tell folks about systemic risk! If your clients could not withstand
> drawdowns of 50% then what were they doing in stocks? Finally, if
> you can outperform such luminaries as Buffett and Soros, or trend
> followers like Dunn, etc. over any reasonable time frame then you
> should make public that performance, it will make you a very rich
> man!
>
> Otherwise it is just rhetoric!
>
> If you are not judgeing based on performance, but on safety, then
> that is a different ballgame and you should admit to it. CDs over
> the last 10 years have outperformed the S & P and they are very
> safe backed by the FDIC insurance as long as you keep them under
> the limits!]]> Sun, 22 Mar 2009 00:14:58 -0400
In the summer of 1987, they headed for cash and when the 1987 market collapsed that Fall they were in a great position to buy.

Later I became trustee of accounts under their management. One day about four months before the dot com bubble burst, I got a call while having lunch: would I mind if they liquidated the stockholdings in the accounts. I gave them the green light, and once again they rode out the storm in cash.

Most recently, duplicate sales confirms started showing up in my mail box starting in November 2007 and that turned into a steady stream of sales over the next three months. Today the accounts are mostly in T-Bills.

Sure these sales sometimes incurred capital gains taxes, but avoiding market down turns has more than made up for any taxes paid. And if you do not loose in bad times, you do not have to do anything very spectacular between the hurricanes to do very well overall.


On Mar 06 08:43 AM Dave Shafer wrote:

> So an article was written? What did you actually do for your clients?
> Or is this more hind-sight bias? Did you selectively pick stocks
> to shed before they crashed or did you call for you clients to get
> out of stocks all together? If one were to have some formula for
> getting in and out of the stock market or going long and short then
> publish it and lets see how accurate it is back-tested. If not,
> then it was just luck [assuming you did get your clients out of stocks].
> I think the issue is more about matching mutual funds with buy and
> hold strategies and asset management strategies all the time forgetting
> to tell folks about systemic risk! If your clients could not withstand
> drawdowns of 50% then what were they doing in stocks? Finally, if
> you can outperform such luminaries as Buffett and Soros, or trend
> followers like Dunn, etc. over any reasonable time frame then you
> should make public that performance, it will make you a very rich
> man!
>
> Otherwise it is just rhetoric!
>
> If you are not judgeing based on performance, but on safety, then
> that is a different ballgame and you should admit to it. CDs over
> the last 10 years have outperformed the S & P and they are very
> safe backed by the FDIC insurance as long as you keep them under
> the limits!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124586/comments?source=feed#comment-417161 417161
1. Thursday a week ago the Arizona Republic reported that $155 million of stimulus aid had just landed in our state coffers. The article went on to report how it was being spent. Oddly the biggest piece, $53 million is going immediately towards rehabbing homes on our Indian reservations to stop huge amounts of wasted energy. This will boost sales of caulk, fiberglass insulation, weather stripping, double paned windows, etc..

That day a link appeared to a map of the United States and by clicking on any given state you could see how much had gone to that state and for what purpose. Many states have received far more than Arizona.

2. Home sales are booming here in the Phoenix area. Not in price, in quantity. December 1, 2008 we had 47,000 homes (55,000 including condos) listed for sale on our Multiple Listing Service. A month ago that was down to 41,000 and this month it is 39,000. We have 9600 homes in escrow and although not all of those will close, enough will to keep the backlog of unsold homes moving downwards. Each week this year the inventory has dropped by 500 homes. Home sales are running at the rate of 100,000 a year, up from last year's total of 59,000.

Why?

a. Changes introduced recently have unclogged the process of getting mortgages. Rates are down thanks partly to government actions specific to mortgages and partly due to the flight of panic capital to safety which has driven Treasury yields down.

b. Banks have staffed up to process their problem loans. A year ago no banker knew where to turn to get approval for a short sale or a negotiated sale and so the system was impassable. Today, answers are available and negotiations can proceed in most cases.

You would be right if you were to argue that not all the stimulus will hit right away, but your statement as written is disproven by the facts on the ground.

On Mar 06 12:29 PM cash wrote:

> Good points. The obama stimulus does not kick in (if it does even)
> for several months more, to pick up some slack in the labor force.
> No private company is hiring now on their dime. So the bad numbers
> will continue to show up until later this year.]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 10:54:21 -0500
1. Thursday a week ago the Arizona Republic reported that $155 million of stimulus aid had just landed in our state coffers. The article went on to report how it was being spent. Oddly the biggest piece, $53 million is going immediately towards rehabbing homes on our Indian reservations to stop huge amounts of wasted energy. This will boost sales of caulk, fiberglass insulation, weather stripping, double paned windows, etc..

That day a link appeared to a map of the United States and by clicking on any given state you could see how much had gone to that state and for what purpose. Many states have received far more than Arizona.

2. Home sales are booming here in the Phoenix area. Not in price, in quantity. December 1, 2008 we had 47,000 homes (55,000 including condos) listed for sale on our Multiple Listing Service. A month ago that was down to 41,000 and this month it is 39,000. We have 9600 homes in escrow and although not all of those will close, enough will to keep the backlog of unsold homes moving downwards. Each week this year the inventory has dropped by 500 homes. Home sales are running at the rate of 100,000 a year, up from last year's total of 59,000.

Why?

a. Changes introduced recently have unclogged the process of getting mortgages. Rates are down thanks partly to government actions specific to mortgages and partly due to the flight of panic capital to safety which has driven Treasury yields down.

b. Banks have staffed up to process their problem loans. A year ago no banker knew where to turn to get approval for a short sale or a negotiated sale and so the system was impassable. Today, answers are available and negotiations can proceed in most cases.

You would be right if you were to argue that not all the stimulus will hit right away, but your statement as written is disproven by the facts on the ground.

On Mar 06 12:29 PM cash wrote:

> Good points. The obama stimulus does not kick in (if it does even)
> for several months more, to pick up some slack in the labor force.
> No private company is hiring now on their dime. So the bad numbers
> will continue to show up until later this year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123774/comments?source=feed#comment-412148 412148 Wed, 04 Mar 2009 00:42:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122555/comments?source=feed#comment-403622 403622

On Feb 25 08:07 AM NITRAM wrote:

> I agree. With a socialistic president, tax cheats, and incompetant
> cabinet and congress members, we will break under 7000 on the Dow.
> More importantly we will enter a full depression. This pretend president
> is the greates spin doctor ever to be in office.]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 17:18:02 -0500

On Feb 25 08:07 AM NITRAM wrote:

> I agree. With a socialistic president, tax cheats, and incompetant
> cabinet and congress members, we will break under 7000 on the Dow.
> More importantly we will enter a full depression. This pretend president
> is the greates spin doctor ever to be in office.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117064/comments?source=feed#comment-371688 371688
For a year or more the developers were raising prices on all models in a given project at the rate of $10,000/house/month. The speculator only had to wait a couple of months until the developer had moved his new price range up several notches, and then he could flip his homes for a profit.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 22:14:01 -0500
For a year or more the developers were raising prices on all models in a given project at the rate of $10,000/house/month. The speculator only had to wait a couple of months until the developer had moved his new price range up several notches, and then he could flip his homes for a profit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116833/comments?source=feed#comment-369495 369495
What is happening in our market here in Phoenix is that:

1. At long last the banks are getting staffed up to dispose of some of their problems. As a result they are aggressively marking down the homes they now own to get rid of them. This plays into the hands of the first time home buyer and the pent up demand at the bottom end of the market that has not been able to act during the past eighteen months.

2. Interest rates on "conventional" loans are far more reasonable now, and, for a change, they are available.

The combined result is that much of the action that is happening, is happening at the bottom end of the market. This skews the "average price" downwards.

A closer look at our market by zip code shows large differences in pricing patterns. Remote areas are showing the biggest declines. Naturally that is where recent new construction has taken place and where in 2005/6 the speculators were able to buy up two, four, six or ten homes at a time. Now with rising commuting costs and declining employment, those areas are getting smashed. -35% is already there. Don't expect even half of that decline in choice close in areas unless there is a foreclosure involved. Some strong areas hardly show any decline.

The good news is that activity has picked up and our MLS inventory that stood at 47,xxx homes two months ago is now around 42,xxx.

That is still above what we consider a "normal" inventory of 25,000, but it is headed down for a change.




]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 01:23:31 -0500
What is happening in our market here in Phoenix is that:

1. At long last the banks are getting staffed up to dispose of some of their problems. As a result they are aggressively marking down the homes they now own to get rid of them. This plays into the hands of the first time home buyer and the pent up demand at the bottom end of the market that has not been able to act during the past eighteen months.

2. Interest rates on "conventional" loans are far more reasonable now, and, for a change, they are available.

The combined result is that much of the action that is happening, is happening at the bottom end of the market. This skews the "average price" downwards.

A closer look at our market by zip code shows large differences in pricing patterns. Remote areas are showing the biggest declines. Naturally that is where recent new construction has taken place and where in 2005/6 the speculators were able to buy up two, four, six or ten homes at a time. Now with rising commuting costs and declining employment, those areas are getting smashed. -35% is already there. Don't expect even half of that decline in choice close in areas unless there is a foreclosure involved. Some strong areas hardly show any decline.

The good news is that activity has picked up and our MLS inventory that stood at 47,xxx homes two months ago is now around 42,xxx.

That is still above what we consider a "normal" inventory of 25,000, but it is headed down for a change.




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115602/comments?source=feed#comment-363713 363713
So instead of giving those megabank dopes all the TARP money, how about we give money to the banks that are doing it right. They would immediately get on with doing normal business in greater volumes. That sure would beat watching the dopey Wall Street bankers paying themselves bonuses and dividends. Let those megabanks spiral off into the sunset. The good banks would soon pick up where they left off given the piles of capital the Fed is dishing out.]]> Fri, 23 Jan 2009 00:27:26 -0500
So instead of giving those megabank dopes all the TARP money, how about we give money to the banks that are doing it right. They would immediately get on with doing normal business in greater volumes. That sure would beat watching the dopey Wall Street bankers paying themselves bonuses and dividends. Let those megabanks spiral off into the sunset. The good banks would soon pick up where they left off given the piles of capital the Fed is dishing out.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104179/comments?source=feed#comment-299732 299732
However, who is to say, in these days of gyrating currency rates, that the dollar will stay strong or the Euro weak?]]> Thu, 06 Nov 2008 17:41:47 -0500
However, who is to say, in these days of gyrating currency rates, that the dollar will stay strong or the Euro weak?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93355/comments?source=feed#comment-242455 242455 Sun, 31 Aug 2008 09:17:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81256/comments?source=feed#comment-185728 185728
South Africa has succumbed to the disease. Companies are being told that they now have three consultants to manage their relationship with the government. These three never show up but they are to be paid big consulting fees which are to be applied to their coming to own say 15 - 25% of the company stock. Nice no show jobs with big rewards.

The recent power outages were no mystery. Escom, the national power company, used to maintain large inventories of coal. The new owners sold off their coal inventory to China last year given the high price of coal, and as a result they were able to show a big profit and get paid huge bonuses. That set up a vicious downward spiral. Without inventories of coal at power plants, when any glitch showed up, the power company could not put out electricity. With no electricity local mines could not produce coal .....

No thanks, Africa's human risks are outside of my ability to evaluate what turn might suddenly crop up to destroy the value of my investment.]]> Sun, 15 Jun 2008 01:01:56 -0400
South Africa has succumbed to the disease. Companies are being told that they now have three consultants to manage their relationship with the government. These three never show up but they are to be paid big consulting fees which are to be applied to their coming to own say 15 - 25% of the company stock. Nice no show jobs with big rewards.

The recent power outages were no mystery. Escom, the national power company, used to maintain large inventories of coal. The new owners sold off their coal inventory to China last year given the high price of coal, and as a result they were able to show a big profit and get paid huge bonuses. That set up a vicious downward spiral. Without inventories of coal at power plants, when any glitch showed up, the power company could not put out electricity. With no electricity local mines could not produce coal .....

No thanks, Africa's human risks are outside of my ability to evaluate what turn might suddenly crop up to destroy the value of my investment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77371/comments?source=feed#comment-168556 168556
I do not know the present status in the marsh lands, but do look hard at what is now going on there.]]> Fri, 16 May 2008 00:55:17 -0400
I do not know the present status in the marsh lands, but do look hard at what is now going on there.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69729/comments?source=feed#comment-131613 131613
When The British Empire devalued the pound circa 1948, that marked the end of the Empire.

Dr. Art Laffer once did a study of some 34 post WWII devaluations. In no case did the balance of trade improve, although, one government after another, gave it a try. His recent comments suggest to me that he might have forgotten about this study he did some years ago.

Devaluations may help selected industries, but not a nation. Heck, even now large chunks of Boeing aircraft are built in other countries and shipped to the US for assembly. Pretty soon, those tail assemblies or wing flaps will start to cost them more which will mitigate whatever benefit Boeing sales might realize from a weak dollar. Iron ore, aluminum ore, copper are all up in dollar terms so our companies that do export are facing rising input costs.

This GWB/Cheney/Paulson "strong dollar" policy is all talk.

Several people I know have done quite well recognizing what nonsense this administration is speaking, and their portfolios are up very nicely thanks to betting against the dollar in various ways. Conversely two foreigners I know have done well by selling off a $100mm+ portfolio of US commercial real estate over the past three or four years so as to get away from this not so "strong dollar" policy.

The problem is, once a currency starts to slip, many forces come to bear to accelerate the trend. For example, a copusin of mine is a corporate jet pilot. On landing in Nairobi recently he found he could not refuel with dollars. He had to find someone who had a Shell credit card denominated in Euros. He then had to pay the card holder in dollars at a 20% premium to the then current exchange rate : $1.70 for each Euro. Ouch!!!! And today - only a couple of months later - that same deal would be at $1.87 for each Euro.]]> Wed, 26 Mar 2008 03:50:15 -0400
When The British Empire devalued the pound circa 1948, that marked the end of the Empire.

Dr. Art Laffer once did a study of some 34 post WWII devaluations. In no case did the balance of trade improve, although, one government after another, gave it a try. His recent comments suggest to me that he might have forgotten about this study he did some years ago.

Devaluations may help selected industries, but not a nation. Heck, even now large chunks of Boeing aircraft are built in other countries and shipped to the US for assembly. Pretty soon, those tail assemblies or wing flaps will start to cost them more which will mitigate whatever benefit Boeing sales might realize from a weak dollar. Iron ore, aluminum ore, copper are all up in dollar terms so our companies that do export are facing rising input costs.

This GWB/Cheney/Paulson "strong dollar" policy is all talk.

Several people I know have done quite well recognizing what nonsense this administration is speaking, and their portfolios are up very nicely thanks to betting against the dollar in various ways. Conversely two foreigners I know have done well by selling off a $100mm+ portfolio of US commercial real estate over the past three or four years so as to get away from this not so "strong dollar" policy.

The problem is, once a currency starts to slip, many forces come to bear to accelerate the trend. For example, a copusin of mine is a corporate jet pilot. On landing in Nairobi recently he found he could not refuel with dollars. He had to find someone who had a Shell credit card denominated in Euros. He then had to pay the card holder in dollars at a 20% premium to the then current exchange rate : $1.70 for each Euro. Ouch!!!! And today - only a couple of months later - that same deal would be at $1.87 for each Euro.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69535/comments?source=feed#comment-130455 130455 Mon, 24 Mar 2008 00:37:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69535/comments?source=feed#comment-130454 130454 Mon, 24 Mar 2008 00:35:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67558/comments?source=feed#comment-123971 123971
To date the Vaalco stock price has seemed insensitive to movements in the price of oil.

Two explanations come to mind.

First: the above article mentions the reserve situation. The old numbers would suggest that Vaalco is running out of reserves. The company does not see it that way as evidenced by the length of the lease they have for their FPSO ship. I hope that we will soon learn that there has been some improvement in reserves due to the 2007 year end studies.

Second: many investors may get a little antsy waiting for Vaalco's game plan to play out but Vaalco wastes no time spreading press releases around to pump up investor enthusiasm. They are a heads down, do the job, crowd.
]]> Sat, 08 Mar 2008 12:57:45 -0500
To date the Vaalco stock price has seemed insensitive to movements in the price of oil.

Two explanations come to mind.

First: the above article mentions the reserve situation. The old numbers would suggest that Vaalco is running out of reserves. The company does not see it that way as evidenced by the length of the lease they have for their FPSO ship. I hope that we will soon learn that there has been some improvement in reserves due to the 2007 year end studies.

Second: many investors may get a little antsy waiting for Vaalco's game plan to play out but Vaalco wastes no time spreading press releases around to pump up investor enthusiasm. They are a heads down, do the job, crowd.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57949/comments?source=feed#comment-106436 106436
As for US airline management? Well ... we can all see what wonders they have wrought.

About three years ago I wrote the presidents of the five major US lines pointing out the following calculation.

I added up all the US airline losses. I forget the exact total. Then I added up the number of passengers they reported to have carried that year. Dividing out those numbers I found that an increase of $7.57 per passenger would have wiped out the combined losses of all the major US air lines.

What kind of management does that suggest?

Unless the idea was to position themselves to trash their payrolls and reneg on their leasing deals. Well, they did both in a big way.

Then reading the next years' K-1's I noticed big bonuses all around for he front office. Hmmm ... ? ]]> Fri, 21 Dec 2007 16:08:29 -0500
As for US airline management? Well ... we can all see what wonders they have wrought.

About three years ago I wrote the presidents of the five major US lines pointing out the following calculation.

I added up all the US airline losses. I forget the exact total. Then I added up the number of passengers they reported to have carried that year. Dividing out those numbers I found that an increase of $7.57 per passenger would have wiped out the combined losses of all the major US air lines.

What kind of management does that suggest?

Unless the idea was to position themselves to trash their payrolls and reneg on their leasing deals. Well, they did both in a big way.

Then reading the next years' K-1's I noticed big bonuses all around for he front office. Hmmm ... ? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/33465/comments?source=feed#comment-85125 85125 Thu, 26 Apr 2007 23:39:07 -0400