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  • BlackBerry: The Bear Case, The Bull Case And My Case  [View article]
    Tonight - the dance music ends until the open.

    I suspect BBRY beats the street on most every metric - even the shorts seem to be conceding that - the question is - will the "beat" be higher than the street is already pricing in?

    If so - price up. If not - down we go, a bit.

    The real important news for longs and shorts - recently - is the 12000 to 18000 bump in BES10 systems (up 50% in just the last month) now paying income to BBRY. This is the "NEW sub income" number that will so heavily affect all the Qers to follow. BBRY is set to (the 50% growth in one month proves it) gain $99, per year, per iP and 'Roid, on these 18,000 servers and the many thousands of BES10 servers to follow. BOYD will drive iP and 'Roid dollars to BBRY in the millions of millions!

    Those who STILL THINK this is a Q or Z hardware story are sadly and dramatically wrong. This is - exactly as Thorsten has REPEATEDLY said - a new revolution in "mobile computing."

    Short if you must - but please - for your family's sake - short only the amount you can easily afford to lose.

    Tomorrow - after the results the dance continues - make sure you've got your dancing shoes on. Time for some fancy footwork, n'est pas?
    Jun 27, 2013. 02:10 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Earnings Preview: Q1 2014  [View article]
    Here in Canada BB is at $15.60 (CDN) at 2.32 PM EST. That is up $1.35 from it's $14.35 (CDN) close on last Friday. That works out to a 9.4% rise in the stock over Monday, Tuesday and this far on Wednesday.

    The question is: Just how much of a "beat" will Friday's results have to show for the market to move even higher than the 9.4% increase we've seen pre-report?

    I suspect that the "beat" will have to be at least more than 9.4% above the streets projections. I expect this to happen - however - I don't expect Friday's results to be earth shaking. I do expect however that by the December reporting Q that the BES10 growth, the sales of the Z,Q,5, and the A's Xmas sales will - by then - have sent the shorts to their dry cleaners to get the stains out.
    Jun 26, 2013. 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Prepare For Short Squeeze  [View article]
    Too many see only the next five minutes - BBRY/QNX is made for the long haul.

    The KEY bit of information available since the last Qly report is this - in five months BBRY sold 12,000 BES10 servers - in the LAST MONTH it sold a further 6,000. Fifty percent more in one month...explosive growth. Each BBRY device on those servers will earn it $55 a year, each 'Roid and iP device will earn $99 a year.

    The other KEY bit of information that is "anecdotally" available at the moment is that the Z and Q are not selling anywhere nearly as well in the US as they are in Canada, the UK, the UAE, France and others - AND - since the BBRY is on a US stock exchange as well as it's "home" market the TSX - I expect it to be punished by our 'Merican cousins.

    Having said that I expect this Qery report to beat the street - but not enough to terminate the wealth of the shorts. I do however, expect the shorts to expire by the Qery report to be delivered in Dec - by that time the BES10 domination will be FACT not just expected and the Z, Q, and 5 sales - along with the A sales for the Xmas season will have PROVEN solid - possibly spectacular - growth.
    Jun 26, 2013. 12:30 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Profit From BlackBerry Q1 2014 Earnings  [View article]
    I've 1200 shares of BB (long baby) and late last week I was sure that when the street digested the real impact of the Societe General report - and realized - the streets projections of 2.4 billion(ish) income would be beat as the Berry turned in a 3.4 billion(ish) income that BBRY (BB here in Canada on the TSX) would "gap" up Monday AM.

    Accordingly, Friday two minutes before the close I bought 12 calls (control of 1,200 shares - the same number I own) June 14.00 (the bid/ask was .80 .85) with a "delta" of .76. Love those in the money calls.

    I would not be surprised if the Monday AM opening "gap" has me in profit between 25% and 50% on these calls right at the open.

    Gonna be fun the next few quarters watching the shorts roast on the spit of their own lack of comprehension of the QNX/BBRY juggernaut.
    Jun 16, 2013. 10:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Poised For A Volatile Month  [View article]
    My 2 cents input...

    I see FOUR major short term announcements that will/may/should move BBRY significantly.

    1) The DoD announcement. Lots of the longs here expect the DoD to go all in BBRY. I'm long and I don't. Clearly, (IMO) they've already opened the door to BOYD and I wouldn't be surprised to see BBRY get about two fifths of the total of new phone orders with 'Roid and iP sharing the other three fifths. To me that would be the "expected" outcome. HOWEVER - the BBRY KILLER with the DoD is IF they do NOT chose BES10 or some combination of BBRY's management system. IF they chose it BBRY gets the subscription fee of $50+ a year for every 'Roind and iP device on the network as well as for every BBRY device. THIS is BBRY's big win. If the DoD goes another direction for their device management then that will be a massive hit against BBRY.

    2) The Qerly report due June 28th. The number of Z and to a lesser extent Q sales in the Quarter will be a KEY mover.

    3) In that same Qerly report the profit/loss position will be revealed. Heins stated at the last Qerly report that they expected to lose money in the Quarter being reported on June 28th. MOST longs expect BBRY to report another major positive income surprise. I fear that if they only produce a small "profit" that will be seen as a negative. Personally, I expect to see a small profit.

    4) The Qerly report June 28th will state the present "cash" position. Obviously, BBRY has had to increase it's advertising and production costs quite a bit to generate sales of the Q and Z 10's. The "cash" position will be largely dependent on the income from the Z'd sold this last Quarter, and the few Q's near the end of the Q. IF - this position is the same as last Q or above this will be a BIG positive for BBRY. I expect the cash balance to be down about 25% from what it was last Q.

    In the unlikely event that all four of these events prove more positive than the street expects then BBRY will get back to the $20+ quickish. However, the odds would seen to favor a more mixed outcome and accordingly the stock price could continue to be stressed.

    Of these events the DoD decision may be the most important. The BB10's are being tested by over 50% of the Fortune 500 at this time. In the medium to long term their decisions will seal the fate of BBRY. However, IF I'm wrong about the DoD and it makes the only rational decision I think it should make - namely to go AT LEAST mostly BBRy then BBRY is off to the races.
    Jun 11, 2013. 12:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Still Fighting With 1 Hand Tied Behind Its Back  [View article]
    The real benefit of the "BBM giveaway" to BBRY is not well understood by many in the Street.

    BBRY's BIG advantage going forward is the $50+ it will earn every year from every device on its BES10 enterprise servers. By giving BBM to 'Roid and iP devices, "enterprise" IT departments using BOYD will have an excellent further incentive to use BBRY's system management tools. Many "enterprise" smartphone users LOVE BBM. BBM might just be the straw that breaks the camels back when it comes to being the final piece of information that swings many Fortune 500 companies to go all in with BBRY's system management tools.

    There is something very sweet about BOYD delivering $ers to BBRY for every 'Roid and iP user on their servers.
    Jun 10, 2013. 10:57 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting BlackBerry Is 'For The Birds'  [View article]
    The Berry is not just a ripe new phone fruit...which may - or may not - grab the momentary attentions of the mostly deluded and huddling masses. The Berry is clearly positioning itself to seriously become the "management tool" of the new brave BOYD "enterprise" world with its BES10, P2P and B2B assortment of shiny, safe, trinkets - and the recurring monthly income they generate.

    In addition - as we shall see more of each Q that unfolds - the Berry is also clearly positioning itself to be "the" (or at least a serious one of the 'the(s)') at the cutting edge of the mobile revolution.

    The Berry may indeed disappoint, under-perform and fail to satisfy those who think "OMG, Whatever and LOL" are three seriously clever things to say... BUT - to my way of thinking - this is a serious fruit - one that I wouldn't deem soft, or over ripe enough, to short. At least not, with any dosh that I was hoping to still have when the the full crop has come in.
    Jun 9, 2013. 11:17 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If BlackBerry 10 Fails, Can The Company Survive On Services And Software?  [View article]
    Money Investor

    Congratulations, you've asked (one of) the right questions. Namely, how much loss of BB's "old" revenue will be offset by BB's "new" MDM/BES10/etc. income.

    I doubt anyone, even BB knows what will happen.

    However, the recent move of "giving" BBM away gives us a good idea of their strategy. Basically, they hope "Enterprise" will use "BES10/etal" in connection with "BYOD" - and by throwing in the quite exceptional BBM enticement - they've just made the BES10 choice that much easier or Enterprise to make. Remember, every iP and 'Roid device on a BB server (as well as every BB) means $4.70 in monthly revenue ($56.40 per year).

    Lets say the BOYD in Global Enterprise results in - for the sake of argument - with 5 million Q's and Z's and 20 million iP's and 30 million 'Roids (or at least lets say that split whatever the final numbers are)... that means BB would gain 5 million x $56.40 from BB's 20 million x $56.40 from iP's...you get the idea.

    In addition, BB is the only smartphone in the world that has met the security rating required by banks - see the CIBC connection.

    In addition, BB is working in Indonesia right now with a pilot P2P (peer to peer) money transfer system - that is positively huge at maturity.

    In addition, BB owns QNX - QNX is the best, newest, safest, most advanced programing language for "mobile computing."

    Blackberry has repeatedly said they are not about "smartphone hardware" they are about a "revolution in mobile computing." As this becomes clearer with each new idea they unfold - their future begins to become clearer - and rose like, petal by petal the whole slowly unveils. And while Z's and Q's may not look like roses I think they smell as sweet.

    By the way, I'm long for the "revolution in mobile computing." Money Investor your investment is safe. Sleep well.
    May 27, 2013. 12:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is QNX And What Does It Mean For BlackBerry's Future?  [View article]
    Cliff, I agree...the "app house('s)" who get on board and exploit the "embedded" future of QNX and BBRY (and those other manufacturers who (will) have been licensed to use QNX by BBRY (in everything from fridges, to cars, to space ships) are another part of the "BBRY universe" of impacts that can create positive "lateral" wealth.

    Now - to research and find a few of these tasty little offerings...,
    May 23, 2013. 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now  [View article]
    Needmorecoffee -

    There is an 800 pound gorilla in the house. Namely, (and with admitted vast oversimplification) that technology, automation, HFT, etc., has largely made a subsistence level of human labour (I'm a Canadian sorry I can't spell in Yank) redundant.

    Again with massive oversimplification, one of the reasons these have been allowed to dramatically destroy the employment futures (environmental future, value of life, etc.) of the majority of the western worlds citizens is that the "right" successfully (sic) extracted the study of "economics" from "political economy." A consequence of which was that the other two pillars of "political economy," namely "sociology" and "political science", the two of which might have kept "(so called) Capitalism" under at least a tiny bit of human control were left to rot on the vine.

    The "right" has managed to successfully destroy societies understanding that "economics" is merely the number crunching part of how societies might be shaped by "political science" to be appropriate and healthful for humans to prosper in as individuals through the study of "sociology."

    The bottom lines are: 1) "Capital" has won, it no longer has to pay attention to any human requirements. 2) Advanced human civilization has lost complete control of the shape of the "political science" and "sociological" structures in which humans can exist and (hopefully) prosper as individuals in a society. Regrettably, I can see no road back to anything near sanity without much painful (and possibly, god forbid, bloody) upheaval.

    An 800 pound gorilla indeed. Sigh.
    May 18, 2013. 03:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Means Business  [View article]
    You realize that writing a covered call is taking a "short" position. I'm "long" and I too write "covered calls." Looks like two longs too short too.
    May 17, 2013. 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BBM Cross Platform Means Gold For BlackBerry  [View article]
    Beam me up Scotty...

    Think Enterprise...no...not the Captain Kirk one, the Besten (BES10) management one. Thorsten has said from the get go that the Q/Z10 are serious products. Besten will see BB having a large share of the Enterprise market - when you add in BBM - for free - to Roid and iPers - that will be a further SAFE tool for Enterprise and a further incentive for corporations to select BES10.

    This move is good for Besten - what's good for Besten is good for the Berry. BES10 - as it nears maturity and expands corporate penetration - will be the KEY to expanding the BB/QNX "mobile computing revolution" which will ensure that BB's "software" income will be fabulously accretive.

    I like the BBM move. For those of you more concerned with Sally meeting Ted and using her red sparkles phone to do it - that's just not BB's gig - that's not BB's niche. BB's niche - is GLOBAL ENTERPRISE - now that's a target worth the journey!

    AND - when Sally realizes she can video, etc. etc. for FREE (every year not just the first) even she and her mindless herd will be joining the "revolution."
    May 15, 2013. 10:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Launches A Land Grab In Mobile Messaging  [View article]
    Think Enterprise...no...not the Captain Kirk one the Besten (BES10) management one. Thorsten has said from the get go that the Q/Z10 are serious products. Besten will see BB having a large share of the Enterprise market - with BBM - for free to Roid and iPers - that will be a further SAFE tool for Enterprise and further incentive for corporations to select BES10.

    This move is good for Besten - what's good for Besten is good for the Berry. BES10 - as it nears maturity and expands corporate penetration - will be the KEY to expanding the BB/QNX "mobile computing revolution" which will ensure that BB's "software" income contributions will be fabulously accretive.

    I like the BBM move. For those more concerned with Sally meeting Ted and using her red sparkles phone to do it - that's just not BB's gig - hat's not BB's niche. BB's niche - is GLOBAL ENTERPRISE - now that's a target worth taking.
    May 14, 2013. 04:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Now Is A Good Time To Buy BlackBerry  [View article]
    Timnpawc - while the specifics of the DoD "decision" are still a few "weeks" away - the thrust is quite public already. Namely that the DoD will be allowing more iP and Android phones. The figures (as recently shown on a Silicon Invester BBRY blog site) show 470,000 BBRY's, 41,000 iP's and 8,700 'Droids. The "decision" will clearly end up dramatically lowering the number of BBRY's used in the DoD over the next few cycles.

    All the more reason to be long BBRY because of what will begin to be revealed at the BBRY LIVE event - very soon.
    May 2, 2013. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Now Is A Good Time To Buy BlackBerry  [View article]
    I really think that the Q10 and Z10 are just the beginning of BBRY's rebirth. BBRY continues to say that their goal is not a new Smartphone - their goal is a revolution in "Mobile Computing."

    Starting in May with the "BBRY Live" event we'll begin to see the plan - the devices - and the software connection between QNX and BBRY - that will power this revolution.

    This is not just a phone company this is a company with a mobile computing vision that is revolutionary. That's why I'm long.
    May 2, 2013. 11:53 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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