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The End Of The Commodity Super Cycle?
Absolutely correct. To go from 9.2% in 2011 to 5.5% by 2020 would be about a 0.4% decline per year. Under these assumptions, the absolute $ amount of GDP added each year would increase until 2018, at which time, the marginal GDP added that year would still be about 19% higher than in 2011. From then, the marginal amount of GDP increase would be a decreasing amount each year. But it would take until 2025 for the marginal amount of GDP added to be less than in 2011. In other words: for the next 15 years, China will still account for more net GDP growth per year, than in did in 2011.
Nov 23, 2012. 02:15 AM
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