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Evan Matz
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Evan Matz is a trader, and a long time investor. He been the Chief Operational Officer in the data processing field for the last twenty years. Trading companies have hired Evan as their technical and strategic advisor. Evan has helped companies design and implement successful trading strategies... More
My company:
Trading High Probability, Inc
My blog:
Trading High Probability Newsletter & Alert Service
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  • 07.15.10 -Free Trade Ideas and market review to Trade for a Living by TradingHighProbability.com

    Trading High Probability Inc,  Newsletter offers High Probability Trading Strategies and trade  ideas that will help you learn while enabling you to trade for a living.


    Elliot Wave - Wave 3 down---here we go!!, Mini Wave 2 up should be over....




    Yesterday the Dow Jones closed up 0.04% while the S&P500 Closed down -0.02%. All in all it was a day of confusion. Intel sent shock waves through the market Tuesday Night with its surprise earnings and reports of increased demand, then came Wednesday morning with the Retail Report showing the second straight month of declining retail spending. This news will likely keep unemployment high and help weaken the economy. Then came the FOMC minutes yesterday afternoon and inside those minutes it was indicated that the FED revised their growth forecasts down to 3.0=to-3.5 percent (Down From 3.2-to-3.7 percent). It also gave a more cautious mood among the Fed policy makers in light of Europe's debt crisis, a volatile Wall Street, a stalled housing market and high unemployment. The Fed also revised its outlook in that it will be at least 5-to-6 years before we can see a normal economy again. If the Fed is now stating 5-to-6 years you can probabily consider 7--to-8 years is more realistic. The only shimmering light in this storm that is brewing is that companies spent more on computers last month. 

    Businesses helped drive the early stages of the recover last year by building up their stocks after slashing them during the recession. The worry now is that if consumer demand will falter and thus businesses will cut back . That could mean fewer orders to U.S. factories and weaker output from manufactures and if this happens expect more layoffs. 

     

    Above we have the chart of the SPY as of the close of the bell yesterday. We are still in the bear camp even though all the talking heads on CNBC are saying that this was just a minor correction over the last three months. We have drawn and shown the Left Shoulder, Head, Right Shoulder and Neck Line. The Right shoulder has pierced the neck line which is a very good sign for a head and shoulder pattern, what we see happening now is a second opportunity to look for an short entry. Currently we are heading into the 200ma as well as the 50ma (which the 50sma is being hit right now) for a longer term short position and have a stop above the June 21st high. Aggressive traders might want to take it short anywhere from the 200ma to the current close from yesterday. While conservative traders might want to short it under yesterday's low . 

    For more information please visit our website at tradinghighprobability.com/Home.html

     



    Disclosure: None
    Tags: MDR, DIA, SPY, AAPL
    Jul 14 11:51 PM | Link | Comment!
  • As Expected - right into resistance. Expect a drop today - Trading High Probability.com 05.28.10
     Thursday, we wrote that we expected the market to lift a little bit and we should watch the SPX rise into the 1,116 area and the DOW to rise into the 10,350-10,400 before hitting some major resistance. At these levels the QQQQ will be right into its 135ma, the SPY & DIA will be poking its head just above the 200ma. Just because we have or will have rose above the 200ma doesn’t mean that everything is fine again. Remember When drawing your resistance lines, draw them with a thick marker and not a fine line. 

    Above you will see the DIA, SPY, QQQQ coming into the dashed lines that represent their respective resistance levels ( the while trend line represents the 200ma, yellow represents 135ma, the cyan represents the 50ma and the purple represents the 20ma ).
    For more go to.... tradinghighprobability.com
    Look for our YouTube Video for the weekend Review at:
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=uytbR700zYk
    By submitting your email address, get video alerts for free.

     



    Disclosure: None
    Tags: MON, QQQ, HSIC, ESI, IYM, DO, BP, XME, VECO, XEC
    May 29 6:34 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Trading High Probability.com 05.26.10 - 300 Point come back... but is it real ?
     Yesterday the market  opened down over 220 points and kept falling to nearly 300 points past the 0% Fibonacci Retracement line.  of $98.79 on the DIA as shown above.  Once the market started rising back above the 0% line we took a position long and notified our Gold Subscribers of the trade idea that the reward was worth the risk to see if we can fill the gap.  Not many people thought we would fill the gap today after being down 300 points right off the open.  It took all day but we did it and took our trade off at the very end of the day for a VERY nice profit.  Sure we could have left it to ride, but how do you give up a 1.82% gain in a matter of 6 hours.  Its very hard to exit a trade. When it’s a losing trade, traders are typically saying to themselves that the market will come back and everything will be fine, yet we know what happens when you break the rules.  When their is a profit, traders get greedy and think they will hold on a little bit longer and again you should know by know what happens when you get greedy.  We try to teach our subscribers to take profits when they present themselves.



    Now what should we expect after today’s price action ?

    Even though we came back with vengeance yesterday, it doesn’t mean all is clear. Remember what happened Friday. We warned you Sunday afternoon that we didn’t see any reason that the market was ready to go higher and we know what happened on Monday. Now here we are again. As we right this newsletter the /YM (Dow Futures) were up 60 points. But the MACD over the last few days is telling us that a slight pop up may occur but the risk/reward is not showing any reason to take most of the trades that are presenting themselves to us. The situation with the European credit crisis is far from over, first it was Greece, now Spain could be next and then....

    Europe is reporting that government spending will have a major cut and taxes will most likely rise. That will have a direct impact on GDP world wide.

    Then you have the Case-Shiller reporting that between February thru March, home prices fell again 0.50%, that makes six straight moths of declines - a sign that the housing market is going in reverse and that the slump isn’t over.  Can anyone say “Double Dip” ?

     

    Tomorrow believe it not might be a difficult day to trade. Most talking heads on CNBC believe its a great time to buy ( they thought that back in 2007, 2008 and gain this Month).   The market has traveled 600 points in one day (300 down and 300 up). Because of the price action very few trades hit our scanners to give us a decent risk/reward ratio to make it worth while.

     

    In summary, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight bounce to the upside to fill the gap on the SPX to 1090-to-1116 before resuming its downtrend once again.




    Disclosure: None
    Tags: SPY, XLE, XLF, DIA, AA, BP
    May 29 6:31 PM | Link | Comment!
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