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TiantongQ

TiantongQ
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  • Daqo New Energy: On Track To Double By Q2 2015 [View article]
    Are CSIQ and DQ your top picks?
    Aug 18, 2014. 04:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 21Vianet Group: Lynchpin Of China's Internet Industry [View article]
    Toro, what do you think of CCIH? thanks
    Oct 29, 2013. 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile Using Sino-Forest Tactics To Delay The Inevitable? [View article]
    Yay finally all the mindless shorts are gone. Celebration!
    Oct 29, 2013. 09:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile Using Sino-Forest Tactics To Delay The Inevitable? [View article]
    This is the problem with most people who have never been accused of something they didn't do.
    Oct 29, 2013. 02:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile Using Sino-Forest Tactics To Delay The Inevitable? [View article]
    Low P/S. A 10% net margin using 4 x latest quarter sales shows over 300% upside.
    Oct 28, 2013. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ - Why Still So Cheap? [View instapost]
    NQ now second favorite stock; price target $40. Just listen to the conference call.
    Oct 28, 2013. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pimavanserin: The Most Underestimated Blockbuster In Biotechnology [View article]
    Abilify is mainly used as an adjunct to antidepressants. That's not exactly the same market as psychosis. I'm now estimating $3 billion peak sales (15% market share) and $100 price target on ACAD.
    Oct 15, 2013. 12:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadia jumps as article predicts blockbuster pimavanserin sales [View news story]
    The best market current ever.
    Oct 14, 2013. 03:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pimavanserin: The Most Underestimated Blockbuster In Biotechnology [View article]
    You made math error on US schizophrenics in the chart. The $3.384 number is wrong and should be much larger, although I think some of your peak penetration numbers are too high, so that cancels out.
    Oct 14, 2013. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 21Vianet Group: Lynchpin Of China's Internet Industry [View article]
    Followed. Was in NQ before switching to VIPS. Will look at FENG...
    Oct 13, 2013. 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadia Stock Report: Stock Valuation [View article]
    Yes, but there are also lots of psychosis trials taking place.
    Oct 12, 2013. 04:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadia Stock Report: Stock Valuation [View article]
    Baker Brothers and RA Capital are both big in ACAD. I'm saying it seems the trend to jack up prices when government healthcare is paying. The $16 billion number is for 2010, not 2013. $300 million out of $20 billion is only 1.5% total market share, while $2 billion is 10%. I also don't see 25 months as terribly slow; doesn't this depend on the number of clinical sites and possibly on whether the patients are able to give informed consent either directly or indirectly? Thanks
    Oct 10, 2013. 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadia Stock Report: Stock Valuation [View article]
    According to some posters current psychosis drugs are all black-boxed and used off-label and have the potential to speed up death. In fact the FDA is trying to reduce off-label use of drugs in psychosis in nursery homes and other places. I've seen several drugs be priced at quite a premium: DNDN's Provenge, CRIS's Erivedge, orphan drugs even when two compete in the same space, etc., so I tend to think of high prices as the norm especially if a drug is actually proven superior to other treatments.

    Also Alzheimers and schizophrenia are not the only other areas for psychosis treatment. Lewy body dementia is just another disease out of many where patients experience psychosis. A small percent of the total psychosis market would cut into the enormous market that is currently dominated by several blockbuster drugs. In 2010, Americans spent more than $16 billion on antipsychotics. Even assuming 5% annual growth this should be over $20 billion by the time Acadia begins selling the drug.

    Propthink is one analyst group that thinks $2 billion peak sales to be achievable. By the end of 2014 or 2015 the stock should approach fair value, so it is not a problem when initial sales will only be about a year away by then.
    Oct 8, 2013. 11:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Acadia Stock Report: Stock Valuation [View article]
    Ok then; thanks for pointing this out. I then get... 80,000 patients * $10,000 (increased price due to higher comparative price estimate) * 5 (with Alzheimer's and schizophrenia) * 30% (profit margin) * 10 (P/E) * 50% (market penetration) = $6 billion market cap. Notice the 5x safety margin on that $3.2 billion number. This is assuming the $2 billion peak sales many analysts are predicting.
    Oct 8, 2013. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vipshop's Misleading Financials: A Secondary On The Way [View article]
    DeliciousWolf, alexa.com, google.com/trends, and at least 5 analysts disagree with you.
    Sep 23, 2013. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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