longk's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/6193/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/128734-why-gm-s-wagoner-and-not-bofa-s-lewis?source=feed#comment-447076 447076 Tue, 31 Mar 2009 17:16:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128744-catching-market-turns-how-bulls-get-bolder?source=feed#comment-447066 447066 Tue, 31 Mar 2009 17:08:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113162-the-law-of-unintended-consequences-20th-century-and-beyond?source=feed#comment-348134 348134
1. the political system is hardly simply. In fact it is a very subtle complex social system for accomodating as manny views and opinions as possible in order to avoid violence. Its hard to look ata flow chart for the main processes of any of the 3 branches of government and find simplicity. In fact the system is intentionally complex by design, in order to prevent simplicity which leads to rash bold decisionmaking. See: totalitarianism, which when it gets it wrong, is a disaster

2. In fact, chaos theory and complexity theory lead you to develop simple control systems with rapid feedback loops and adaptive cycles precisely to reflect the uncertainty of outcomes.

3. It is confirmation bias and hindsight bias to find"causality" after the fact in a lot of "unintended consequences". Just because things happened chronologically doesnt mean that happened with causality. Because complex adaptive systems have unpredictable consequences, simplicity and flexibility (a=but mostly humility) should be sought.

4. Complexity IS an argument for distributed government and free markets. In fact, free market theory is a powerful argument that simple systems are best at managing/co-existung with complexity (the infinite variety of dynamic human needs, circumstances and resources)]]> Tue, 06 Jan 2009 23:23:59 -0500
1. the political system is hardly simply. In fact it is a very subtle complex social system for accomodating as manny views and opinions as possible in order to avoid violence. Its hard to look ata flow chart for the main processes of any of the 3 branches of government and find simplicity. In fact the system is intentionally complex by design, in order to prevent simplicity which leads to rash bold decisionmaking. See: totalitarianism, which when it gets it wrong, is a disaster

2. In fact, chaos theory and complexity theory lead you to develop simple control systems with rapid feedback loops and adaptive cycles precisely to reflect the uncertainty of outcomes.

3. It is confirmation bias and hindsight bias to find"causality" after the fact in a lot of "unintended consequences". Just because things happened chronologically doesnt mean that happened with causality. Because complex adaptive systems have unpredictable consequences, simplicity and flexibility (a=but mostly humility) should be sought.

4. Complexity IS an argument for distributed government and free markets. In fact, free market theory is a powerful argument that simple systems are best at managing/co-existung with complexity (the infinite variety of dynamic human needs, circumstances and resources)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113076-riskier-sector-etfs-improve-investors-now-betting-on-economic-recovery?source=feed#comment-345557 345557
So you ask yourself: Is it worth trying to make sense of the fact/event, to include the time and effort of estabishing validit and confidence interval?

Well, I can't know that ahead of time, so i make heuristic judgments based on my initial reaction to the fact, and the context in which I discovered the fact. It's important to know that you cannot know the answer ahead of time, but you can trade on it.

My first impression is that if I knew what the first poster was actually saying, I still could not trade off that knowledge, it's important for me not to wonder what he was actually saying. :P

But that judgment has an opportunity cost (1 i am willing to pay) since I will never really know if the hueristic judgment is "correct". I can only estimate its prudence in saving me time to inquire elsewhere, consiering facts that suggest a greater payoff for time invested.

Thats why i read Dr Brett's posts with care, but comments that dont make immediate sense or have immediate utility: not so much.]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 13:26:43 -0500
So you ask yourself: Is it worth trying to make sense of the fact/event, to include the time and effort of estabishing validit and confidence interval?

Well, I can't know that ahead of time, so i make heuristic judgments based on my initial reaction to the fact, and the context in which I discovered the fact. It's important to know that you cannot know the answer ahead of time, but you can trade on it.

My first impression is that if I knew what the first poster was actually saying, I still could not trade off that knowledge, it's important for me not to wonder what he was actually saying. :P

But that judgment has an opportunity cost (1 i am willing to pay) since I will never really know if the hueristic judgment is "correct". I can only estimate its prudence in saving me time to inquire elsewhere, consiering facts that suggest a greater payoff for time invested.

Thats why i read Dr Brett's posts with care, but comments that dont make immediate sense or have immediate utility: not so much.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112083-great-lessons-from-big-scandals?source=feed#comment-336726 336726 Tue, 23 Dec 2008 12:21:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111842-the-antidote-to-economic-malaise-a-culture-of-collective-mindfulness?source=feed#comment-336239 336239
capitalism is the most dynamic means of effectively deploying capital to meet the needs of the many by rewarding reliable risk taking. the comparison of the world markets to high reliability organizations is flawed, because the free market is not an organization, with a mission and resources; it is an unconstrained gathering place where buyers and selelrs come together. Weick an Sutcliffe's work is excellent and is a call to action for those who would improve the performance of their organizations. I teach these ideas and techniques to my management students; I think theapplication to the markets is flawed though.

the greedy wealthy who had money and didnt know how to ask questions of Maddow to protect the money got what they earned. they should have been more mindful. they should have done their due diligence. If you dont treat money properly, with respect and care, it goes away.

The President of the US is NOT the President of the world. He has no constitutional authority to address world poverty. If he tries to do that he should be impeached for exceeding his constitutional bounds. He has no authority to lead the world; The scope of his responsibilities, and they are slight, are clearly spelled out in the Constitution. If you would change the world, first change your nation, first change your state, first change your village, first change your family, first change your self. The world wwill take care of itself.]]> Mon, 22 Dec 2008 22:08:14 -0500
capitalism is the most dynamic means of effectively deploying capital to meet the needs of the many by rewarding reliable risk taking. the comparison of the world markets to high reliability organizations is flawed, because the free market is not an organization, with a mission and resources; it is an unconstrained gathering place where buyers and selelrs come together. Weick an Sutcliffe's work is excellent and is a call to action for those who would improve the performance of their organizations. I teach these ideas and techniques to my management students; I think theapplication to the markets is flawed though.

the greedy wealthy who had money and didnt know how to ask questions of Maddow to protect the money got what they earned. they should have been more mindful. they should have done their due diligence. If you dont treat money properly, with respect and care, it goes away.

The President of the US is NOT the President of the world. He has no constitutional authority to address world poverty. If he tries to do that he should be impeached for exceeding his constitutional bounds. He has no authority to lead the world; The scope of his responsibilities, and they are slight, are clearly spelled out in the Constitution. If you would change the world, first change your nation, first change your state, first change your village, first change your family, first change your self. The world wwill take care of itself.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98478-so-much-for-the-bailout?source=feed#comment-273477 273477
add 150B in pork, and it saves us all! i wish the the naysayers had just sold out their principles a little more cheaply and spared us another 150B of unfinaced debt.]]> Sat, 04 Oct 2008 13:14:29 -0400
add 150B in pork, and it saves us all! i wish the the naysayers had just sold out their principles a little more cheaply and spared us another 150B of unfinaced debt.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97268-you-can-t-handle-the-truth?source=feed#comment-264361 264361
The government should act as a caretaker to continue to receive current mortgage payments to be paid into an escrow account, which will be added to the value of the house. Houses should be put up at auction, like any estate sale. People in the homes should get first option on refinancing their home at reasonable market rates against the original value of the mortgage or the auctioned value, whichever one is LOWER.

when investment banks go bankrupt, the requirement for the function will still be there, and investment money will flow into the vacuum and replace the old banks with new organizations that will be fully seized with the business risk associated with the sector. money will flow into the defunct sector much like settlers leaped at the opportunity of the Oklahoma land rush. Buffet would leap at the opportunity to occupy that business sector especially if jump started by the inevitable government money.

the last people on earth to be entrusted with public money to bailout Goldman Sachs are former CEOs of Goldman Sachs and the elected representatives who have been bought and paid for by investment bank campaign controbutions. they have already proven decisively that they are not trustworthy stewards of public money and trust. dont throw good money after bad.
]]> Thu, 25 Sep 2008 00:29:07 -0400
The government should act as a caretaker to continue to receive current mortgage payments to be paid into an escrow account, which will be added to the value of the house. Houses should be put up at auction, like any estate sale. People in the homes should get first option on refinancing their home at reasonable market rates against the original value of the mortgage or the auctioned value, whichever one is LOWER.

when investment banks go bankrupt, the requirement for the function will still be there, and investment money will flow into the vacuum and replace the old banks with new organizations that will be fully seized with the business risk associated with the sector. money will flow into the defunct sector much like settlers leaped at the opportunity of the Oklahoma land rush. Buffet would leap at the opportunity to occupy that business sector especially if jump started by the inevitable government money.

the last people on earth to be entrusted with public money to bailout Goldman Sachs are former CEOs of Goldman Sachs and the elected representatives who have been bought and paid for by investment bank campaign controbutions. they have already proven decisively that they are not trustworthy stewards of public money and trust. dont throw good money after bad.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90742-the-economic-cost-of-the-military-industrial-complex?source=feed#comment-230311 230311 M) is simply one dimension of national power in the diplomatic, information, military, economic (DIME) model. Approaching issues of national policy from only one dimension is suboptimal.

Considering the Great Game as if players are identically motivated, unicultural, playing for the same purpose and even keeping score the same way is a recipe for disaster.

Treating policy goals as an endstate or a destination is to misunderstand the complex, dynamic and uncertain nature of the world.

The policy questions of what goals to pursue, the size of the committment in view of other competing options, considerations of risk and reward, the opinions of other players and observers, alignment with core values, all are important aspects of the same wicked problem, as well as the technical debate on how to achieve the stated goals. Sometimes you have to talk about just the individual components in terms of efficiency and effectiveness, but you have to remember that they have to be put back together and understood from a systems dynamics perspective as well.

I found your thoughts thoughtful and balanced, and am glad you took the time to write.


If interested in more dialogue in a different forum, my email is longke@yahoo.com

cheers,
ken]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 12:17:53 -0400 M) is simply one dimension of national power in the diplomatic, information, military, economic (DIME) model. Approaching issues of national policy from only one dimension is suboptimal.

Considering the Great Game as if players are identically motivated, unicultural, playing for the same purpose and even keeping score the same way is a recipe for disaster.

Treating policy goals as an endstate or a destination is to misunderstand the complex, dynamic and uncertain nature of the world.

The policy questions of what goals to pursue, the size of the committment in view of other competing options, considerations of risk and reward, the opinions of other players and observers, alignment with core values, all are important aspects of the same wicked problem, as well as the technical debate on how to achieve the stated goals. Sometimes you have to talk about just the individual components in terms of efficiency and effectiveness, but you have to remember that they have to be put back together and understood from a systems dynamics perspective as well.

I found your thoughts thoughtful and balanced, and am glad you took the time to write.


If interested in more dialogue in a different forum, my email is longke@yahoo.com

cheers,
ken]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90742-the-economic-cost-of-the-military-industrial-complex?source=feed#comment-229689 229689 Force structure must meet the tests of suitable, feasible, acceptable. The current policy goals beg the question of feasibility.

I was pleased to see you quoting one of my heroes David Walker, one of the few adult commentators on the subject of our fiscal posture. His insights into the approaching trainwreck of unconstrained appetite in every dimension of federal spending are compelling.


I commend to you the book "Military Reform" by Winslow Wheeler and Lawrence Korb, James Fallows' National Defense, and Robert Coram's "Boyd", the biography of COL John Boyd. I am quite sure you have already seen the documentary "Why We Fight" which I think does a responsible job of laying out the 2d and 3d order effects of policy choices made without a clear grasp of long term strategy. It also references Ike in the opening moments.

One can concede that there are threats in the world without agreeing with the method, scope, and cost of the current response, and the 2d mortgage we have signed for future generations for our current foreign policy.

cheers,
Ken

Ken Long
Asst Professor
Department of Logistics & Resource Operations
US Army Command & General Staff College
US Army Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, KS 66027 ]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:16:31 -0400 Force structure must meet the tests of suitable, feasible, acceptable. The current policy goals beg the question of feasibility.

I was pleased to see you quoting one of my heroes David Walker, one of the few adult commentators on the subject of our fiscal posture. His insights into the approaching trainwreck of unconstrained appetite in every dimension of federal spending are compelling.


I commend to you the book "Military Reform" by Winslow Wheeler and Lawrence Korb, James Fallows' National Defense, and Robert Coram's "Boyd", the biography of COL John Boyd. I am quite sure you have already seen the documentary "Why We Fight" which I think does a responsible job of laying out the 2d and 3d order effects of policy choices made without a clear grasp of long term strategy. It also references Ike in the opening moments.

One can concede that there are threats in the world without agreeing with the method, scope, and cost of the current response, and the 2d mortgage we have signed for future generations for our current foreign policy.

cheers,
Ken

Ken Long
Asst Professor
Department of Logistics & Resource Operations
US Army Command & General Staff College
US Army Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, KS 66027 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90742-the-economic-cost-of-the-military-industrial-complex?source=feed#comment-229621 229621 Wed, 13 Aug 2008 14:37:07 -0400