mdleraris

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  • CVRs – The Good, The Bad And The Ugly  [View instapost]
    Thanks. There were some good specifics in here describing how/why the pricing of these securities can get so out of whack.

    Any chance you'd care to offer an opinion on CYHHZ? The potential payouts offer a lot of upside relative to the price, but it is tougher to get a grasp on the probability distribution.
    Feb 11, 2015. 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Fat Years Of Event-Driven Investing  [View article]
    Interesting... Thanks very much for your reply.
    Dec 4, 2014. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Fat Years Of Event-Driven Investing  [View article]
    Great article, Chris! Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    I am not sure if this is too much inside baseball, but I was wondering what factors you might take into consideration in order to evaluate whether Putnam County Savings Bank (or any similar bank) is a likely conversion candidate.
    Dec 2, 2014. 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PTGi Holding: Phil Falcone's Next Deal Vehicle Offers Multiple Sources Of Upside  [View article]
    I believe that the warrants are potentially significantly more dilutive than what is implied by your analysis. The warrants convert into 19.6 million shares at prices between $2.79 and $5.93. All of those share prices are in play according to what you are saying. And to provide a sense of scale, 19.6 million shares compares to current outstanding shares of 15.3 million. 8.6 million of the shares from warrants are either in-the-money currently or pennies away from being in-the-money.

    The only silver lining I can see is that the warrants expire July 1, 2014. Maybe you are assuming that the ones not currently in-the-money will just expire without being exercised?
    Apr 2, 2014. 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Event Driven Q&A Forum  [View instapost]
    This was great guys. Thank you so much for sharing.
    Nov 22, 2013. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Event Driven Q&A Forum  [View instapost]
    Just stumbled onto this board and hope that it isn't dead because I've really learned quite a bit from the commentary here. My question is how possible it is to do some portion of event-driven investing in the way that Pabrai describes as "cloning" (i.e., generating a list of investment ideas by copying from established/successful investors before going on to do your own research). I have used this idea successfully from a long value perspective, but have doubts about its applicability to event-driven. If the catalyst is near term, the trade may have come and gone by the time it appears on a 13F. And of course there is no way of knowing if there is a short being held in conjunction with a long showing up on the 13F.

    Are there any investors worth following through the SEC filings that generate a consistent source of good event-driven ideas? If not, is there some other way (besides the SEC filings) for an investor to streamline his research time by generating a source of ideas to look through by cloning guys who are more experienced in the event-driven area?

    Part of the genesis for this question was that as I've come to appreciate Chris's thinking on some of the investments he's written about I have tried to track Rangeley through the SEC filings. There are some valuable 13G and 13D filings, but no 13Fs. (That is to say, there is the possibility of garnering individual stock ideas when Rangeley is a significant enough holder of a particular issue, but no regular quarterly filing describing the long portfolio as a whole.)
    Nov 21, 2013. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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