nice post...mechanical or discretionary? aah, the choices we face as traders...i too feel uncomfortable when the system signals a trade...but if you feel you have an edge you must ignore your emotions and play the probability..
Greece: The 'Surprise' That Breaks the Camel's Back? [View article]
I agree with the Railroad Queen above, but asking the rating agencies to downgrade securities BEFORE the market reprices the risk is asking too much from these agencies. They are not objective. They act like they are providing useful information however, in my opinion, the ratings and information they provide is overrated.
JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley: Finagling Accounting Profits [View article]
I really wonder how bankers truly feel about themselves nowadays. Lucky? to be still doing what they do. Stupid? because of how they mismanaged risk. Guilty and Shamed? as charged by almost everyone in America it seems sometimes. Arrogant? screw you, I got my bonus. Happy? because all those bad things in the past are now over and it's going to be a bright, bright,bright, sunshiny day. I really wonder....
I agree with this analysis. Where is the so-called financial reform? At the height of the financial crises we had an opportunity to handle the structural problems that banks have, but we squandered it. In exchange for bailout dollars we should have demanded real reform. We did not and we probably will pay for it in the future.
Why should we trust bankers? Let me remind readers of the Third World Debt Crisis, the Savings and Loan Crisis, and our current crisis. All of these events clearly show why banks should be monitored in their risk taking activities, yet we do nothing about it. I used to believe that Glass-Steagall was outdated and it was time to allow the commercial banks into investment banking activities. I no longer feel this way. Banks need to be monitored and regulated because they pose excessive risks to our economy.
Interesting article, I found it surprising that Geithner is there...I do wonder why? Some have suggested that China may be in a bubble tied to its real estate...maybe China has more problems looming then we know about...they are so secretive and it is very difficult to understand what might be happening...maybe that too is being discussed...I'm not sure though that he's there so they do not revalue...
Is it better to look at high rs stocks trading above 50 dma rather than just all of them...or do they both generally say the same thing? for example, about 91% of stocks in the sp500 are currently trading above their 50dma, not too different from what you have showing on your chart
Investing Without Borders Offers Refreshing Take That Challenges Much Financial Theory [View article]
Sounds to me like Mr. Frishberg assumes too much from the average investor. Most investors are generally not good at market timing, not good at picking sectors and stocks, and given that they cannot do it in their own country, asking them to pick foreign stocks and time foreign markets sounds like an even bigger reach to me.
Nine Reasons Why Greece, PIIGS Approaching Irreversible Slide to Default [View article]
I generally agree with most of your analysis, but I particularly think reasons #1, #6, and #9 are why this problem can get out of hand real quickly and spread throughout Europe. Soros talked about this kind of stuff in his book, "The Alchemy of FInance:Reading the Mind of the Market." These kind of events have a way of "snowballing."
Black Swans, Portfolio Theory and Market Timing [View article]
I enjoyed reading your article. You mention that in early 2007 your program(s) correctly called for an increase in volatility. It is now April 2010 and volatility levels have declined since the height of the economic crisis. I am wondering what your models predict regarding volatility going forward from here? In addition, in an above reply you mention that mean reversion operates on longer time scales. Can you specifically reply on mean reversion for short term time frames? As a new member I have not yet had time to read many articles and posts in SA, nonetheless, I will definetly be reading more of your articles and hopefully learn some more "stuff." Perhaps you can shorten my search through your work. Thx.
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Follow the Bonds - S&P 500's Direction Is Down [View instapost]
Greece: The 'Surprise' That Breaks the Camel's Back? [View article]
JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley: Finagling Accounting Profits [View article]
Did the Bailouts Work? [View article]
Why should we trust bankers? Let me remind readers of the Third World Debt Crisis, the Savings and Loan Crisis, and our current crisis. All of these events clearly show why banks should be monitored in their risk taking activities, yet we do nothing about it. I used to believe that Glass-Steagall was outdated and it was time to allow the commercial banks into investment banking activities. I no longer feel this way. Banks need to be monitored and regulated because they pose excessive risks to our economy.
The Catch-22 of a Yuan Revaluation [View instapost]
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Investing Without Borders Offers Refreshing Take That Challenges Much Financial Theory [View article]
Nine Reasons Why Greece, PIIGS Approaching Irreversible Slide to Default [View article]
What Will the S&P Return Over the Next 10 Years? [View article]
Black Swans, Portfolio Theory and Market Timing [View article]