Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • World Oil Supply And Demand  [View article]
    World oil inventories are down for the third straight month...Can anyone reconcile where all the missing barrels are? I think world demand has been hugely underestimated in 2015 due to a surge in emerging market demand that isn't tracked well

    You can''t over production of 1.9M barrels a day with inventories staying flat...this is the typical paper trade downdraft and oil is going to come back with a vengeance in 2016 like it always does
    Jan 18, 2016. 12:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Big Oil In Bed With The Saudis To Destroy The Fracking Industry?  [View article]
    Nice theory but you are missing one major point. The US produces less than 10% of world oil. The trajectory of US shale was 10M per day by now...now the trajectory is less than 8.5M barrels.At the same time demand for 2015 is now coming in at +1.8M barrels and next year another 1.3M barrels minimum..the differentials will balance the market because Saudi can only produce 11M a day max...OPEC has increased production 1.7M barrels a day and they say another 3M barrels a day is off the grid. The point is this: Once Iran comes on line with they extra 500K barrels a day, the rest of the non-opec world will have serious production drops next year along with the US and the market will balance and then go to shortage. I actually am for acting a shortage by May of next year..And watch out for those Iraq oil fells..we've seen them light up before
    Oct 27, 2015. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Petroleum - Don't Get Carried Away By The Rally  [View article]
    PWE is becoming a Whitecap. When they sell NW Alberta, Swan Hills, East Central Alberta and Prop, debt will be down to 700M Canadian or only 500M US which is the same as Whitecap. PWE will be left with three of the best core plays in Canada profitable at less than 40WTI. It is astonishing that they were able to achieve all these assets sales in this environment. Nobody has done this except PWE. It has already happened so they are not going anywhere. This article is year late/When they sell 2 more non-core plays, they will be profitable and will be able to ramp up their core plays...Its not how much you produce in the oil world. Its what you make and PWE will make more then they did at these lower volumes when oil recovers with low debt..that's an amazing transformation. The price is ridiculously low right now because the whole planet knows they will get 2 more asset sales done driving debt down to 1.1B per lower....the non core plays left are producing much higher volume levels then the recent sales so the sale prices should be higher
    Oct 25, 2015. 09:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Still Have A Buck In The Till - We're Solvent!  [View article]
    I guess the assets in the ground which are a finite resource mean nothing. The problem with oil market is that there are 19 financial barrels for every physical barrel. And the trading of these barrels are controlled by fewer people than folks realize. Somebody short will be holding a very large bag as spare capacity is already coming out of the system; cap ex has essentially shut down; and EIA numbers and IEA numbers are rough guesstimates as seen by the lower "monthly" US production numbers published yesterday for June vs the higher weekly numbers for the same period; and the wild card of Saudi and Russia getting together to stem production
    Sep 1, 2015. 07:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Too Early To Bet On The Potential Upside At Conn's  [View article]
    CONNS made a mistake and Brian Taylor paid for it with his job. They goosed revenues by loosening credit to below 525. They then changed back to traditionally lending practices. Delinquencies will fall 1.5% for the next 4 months like they always do..CONNS is now guiding analysts that the problem is solved..tightening credit starting last April is now cycling around. Delinquencies stayed flat in January when they traditionally go up...CONNS is guiding even further that delinquencies will continue to fall further as credit loans lap April. Any delinquency rate below 10% is accretive to earnings as CONNS has written off debt at 10% going forward and their will be quarterly add back in real time. With a 1.7B projection on revenues, earnings with the add back will be close to 5 dollars per share in FY16..First it was delinquencies; then is was oil collapse; then it was tighter credit will kill revenues...none of that came true. Your article is basic and without knowledge of the facts and frankly a desperate attempt to keep shorts from being creamed
    Feb 6, 2015. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Is Talking With Lenders As It Faces A Liquidity Crisis  [View article]
    There is nothing between the senior debt holders and the shareholders unless there is some preferred stock I don't know about..and you are wrong about staying in BK..companies do it all the time and a judge will allow it as well as the bonds holders are being paid...it will never get there anyway..Senior does not want the coma pant but I do believe they will require the debt to guaranteed by assets...
    Jan 25, 2015. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Is Talking With Lenders As It Faces A Liquidity Crisis  [View article]
    Not true. If bondholders are made whole, second in line of owners get the rest-the shareholders..your opinion is based on a situation where assets are worth less than the bonds..A company can stay in BK for as long as they like till oil comes back.Unless you are of the mindset that oil will never come back, PWT shareholders have a future regardless...
    Jan 24, 2015. 12:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Is Talking With Lenders As It Faces A Liquidity Crisis  [View article]
    Lets say they breach the covenants, and lenders don't relax rules even if PWT guarantees the debt with assets, and it goes into BK, then the company could stay in BK until the price of oil goes up, while paying the interest on the debt. PWT would refinance their debt without having to pay the make whole provision with 500,000,000 Barrels in reserves and then shareholders would be worth 7- 8 bucks a share minimum..and that's worst case. This whole thing is clownish
    Jan 24, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Digital Money Transfer, Not Advertising Is BBM's Best Hope  [View article]
    you don't think this isn't on the road map..in fact Chen mentioned it at CES
    Jan 9, 2015. 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Data Points To Hardware Collapse  [View article]
    so who cares...CHEN is transitioning to software,,clearly stated and plan moving ahead with strong partnerships...the street wants to know guidance and profit not HW sales
    Dec 15, 2014. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: BlackBerry Q3 2015  [View article]
    Security is hot..in fit the number issue for all IT worldwide...and BB owns it..what is there not to love..the market doesn't look forward anymore??
    Dec 12, 2014. 05:55 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Price Collapse Cannot Be Good For Drillers But May Create Value Plays In Producers  [View article]
    Please quantify with facts this over supply theory because there are many well respected oil men who say this is not like 2008 and there is no over supply
    Oct 31, 2014. 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • magicJack Vocaltec (CALL -11.5%) closes with giant losses after Copperfield Research issues a report taking aim at the company's accounting and trustworthiness. Among other things, Copperfield accuses magicJack of overstating revenue, earnings, and cash flow in earnings releases relative to SEC filings, and of using put option trades and other questionable investments to inflate earnings. It also notes CEO Dan Borislow has been sued for securities fraud in the past, and has sold shares after using them as collateral against personal debt. (SA Instablog[View news story]
    Put option strategy was know...accounting fraud allegations along with initating a short position is illegal..jail time
    Jan 10, 2013. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment