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  • Quantitative Easing In The Short Term Will Lead To Deflation Long Term [View article]
    vaild points NeedMore
    Aug 27 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Austrian Business Cycle Theory? [View article]
    It would seem the CB's are now in a pretty tight corner with these rates.
    No yield and the potential of appreciating values is nearing zero.
    Treasuries probably a short opp soon? MIT aside, if demand dries up, yields have to rise.....
    Aug 21 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Austrian Business Cycle Theory? [View article]
    thx hoop
    Aug 20 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen: Where No Man Has Gone Before [View article]
    Mac I have a few counterpoints. In general I agree that overall deflationary pressure is a negative. But;
    -tech deals with deflationary pressures daily. Result; continuous innovation and efficiency in that industry.

    -By fighting against overall deflation, policy picks winners and losers - Not efficiently. Driving through the Midwest this summer, it's astonishing the amount of corn and soybean fields there are - I'd guess 95% of all crop production here. Why? Farm Bill (central planning). Result; subsidized corn and s-beans and farmers plant for the money (hand-outs). High fructose corn syrup and soybean (not fermented)- filling the junk food producers pipelines..Consequence - where's the (healthy) local broccoli, cabbage, lettuce, et al? ~90% in CA where water is short and fossil fuels (for fert & refrig storage & transport) required to get out here.

    -Deflationary pressures signal industries to re-tool, scale down and/or innovate....buggy whips fortunately weren't subsidized.

    -Unions are a complex subject. NAFTA and other free trade agreements meant that labor HAD to come down in sectors or else they close(d) the doors. Lot's of plant closings happened and NOT because our labor costs stagnated or dropped - but because of cheap overseas labor and the lack of recognition that we shackled our domestic industries with reg's (out the wazoo) and didn't (hasn't) impose similar reg's against the foreign producers exporting to Western developed countries.

    I could go on. It's more complex than you or anyone else boxing people into neat little boxes of ideology.

    I'll go on; Our central planners have been fighting the 'war' on poverty, drugs, cancer, heart disease, obesity, diabetes....with truly disastrous results. Could that say something about nuturing a nanny state versus what once was a hardy society when it was taboo to accept gov hand-outs? Safety net YES - expanding it? I say no.

    Allow unions to organize - yes. Watching unions flounder in certain dying and/or bloated sectors (Detroit) - ugly. The market is sorting out the players for the future and leaving some in the past. Why we place so much trust into central planners is beyond me - they're not that smart and cronyism is a rot from within the current system.
    Aug 8 10:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Austrian Business Cycle Theory? [View article]
    thanks for the updates hoop

    dumb question...or observation - German 10 yr's ~1% lower than US - and japan lower than Germany...

    question - - japan & germany are that much more of a flight to quality for that lower yield?
    Aug 6 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen: Where No Man Has Gone Before [View article]
    well put!
    Jul 31 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen: Where No Man Has Gone Before [View article]
    Hi asby
    Quite sure Kertch wasn't speaking to you about denigrating others....as you said that would be rare. Your insight into the mechanics are excellent.
    Kertch is spot on with the borrow/spend/print....

    I think we're observing unintended consequences of central planning and loose monetary policy, as we see incomes stagnant/lower and wealth (down 33% in the last 15 years) for the bottom ~80%. We'll rot from within if the middle class doesn't recover and grow.

    My theme is unchanged; we regulate ourselves heavily and don't apply those same standards (pollution, human rights, etc etc) to imported goods. The canaries in the coal mine are building; Pacific ocean acidification, job loss and income inequality/ wealth loss for the middle class, support for big pharma, big junk food entities and big ag that has developed into a sickcare health system vs any thought of preventative healthcare with quality food - that is not supported by the farm bill.

    If the imported goods had the same standards applied, their costs wouldn't make off-shoring so attractive....and their cost levels so much lower.
    Jul 31 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen: Where No Man Has Gone Before [View article]
    Rubin & Summers convinced Clinton to support repealing GS
    Jul 30 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen: Where No Man Has Gone Before [View article]
    MI you say "A bunch of conservatives thought that the banks would be able to hold their water if the diaper know as Glass-Steagall is removed".

    A 'bunch of conservatives'....in the Clinton admin?
    Jul 29 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Never Mind Their Distrust Of Data And Forecasts, Austrians Can Help You Predict The Economy [View article]
    good discussion
    Tack
    ...credit/savings... "gets out of balance with economic output" is interesting.

    The degree and quality of leverage with credit formation is the real issue IMO. Poor credit quality with high levels of leverage brought on the 07-09 GR. Since that balance was tilted to poor/highly leveraged credit, a reversion to balanced levels of quality and leverage means (should mean) lower credit formation for a period of time.

    Policy isn't allowing for a reversion to balanced levels. There's too many new SUV's in the hands of sub-prime buyers. Savings are the way to create quality credit formation vs another house of cards - for the sake of credit growth.
    Jul 25 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Never Mind Their Distrust Of Data And Forecasts, Austrians Can Help You Predict The Economy [View article]
    classic
    Jul 22 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods, Wal-Mart And The Coming Commoditization Of Organic Grocers [View article]
    For those interested in (eventually) shorting Monsanto, ADM, et al, about 20 minutes into the youtube, Dr. Stephanie Seneff provides detail on glyphosate...round up ready.
    http://bit.ly/UlXKV3
    Jul 22 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods, Wal-Mart And The Coming Commoditization Of Organic Grocers [View article]
    yup - we'll take it to a 'brink' moment and reverse course - by necessity.
    I think the EU is far too socialistic in their approach - but do agree with their caution/control of toxic substances in farm production and food processing. We're as far behind them in that regard as SE Asia is to us for environmental control(s).
    Jul 21 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods, Wal-Mart And The Coming Commoditization Of Organic Grocers [View article]
    i.e. "Run-off" being excess (farm) phosphorus from fertilizers and manure applied to fields for mono-culture (single crop) production (subsidized corn, soy, wheat, cotton).
    Results; loosing tons of topsoil per acre annually - polluting estuaries, inland lakes and eventually the Chesapeake and the Gulf of Mexico. The fertilizer(s) decompose and consume the oxygen - creating the dead zones.

    Cronyism; mis-guided ethanol production and the subsidization of corn in particular - support the current large farm operations....while 'supporting' "dead zones" and loss of topsoil.... akin to taking too long to beat the tobacco lobby. Too many inland lakes aren't fit to swim in during mid summer as the algae blooms choke the lake(s) and toxicity levels spike.

    Soil fertility loss brings down civilizations. While we degrade our farmland to take advantage of the Farm Bill subsidies, we're getting a front seat to a slow mo train wreck.
    Jul 21 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods, Wal-Mart And The Coming Commoditization Of Organic Grocers [View article]
    Yes Jb
    My real concern is the destruction of the biology of the soil - leading to;
    -further run-off and bigger dead zones
    -plant uptake of the toxic herbicides/pesticides - entering the food supply with direct produce consumption
    -entering the food supply directly with consuming plants and the feed given to livestock - that gets into the food supply through meat, milk, etc

    No question GMO's would effect genetics...just not aware of those particulars. As with the central banks, unintended consequences w/out long term planning or considerations. Boom/bust big AG, big pharma and central banks - all relying on cronyism to maintain and build the power of the status quo. The struggle against big tobacco decades back has re-morphed into current issues that fight against the good of the public.

    Jul 21 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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