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  • Why The Fed Critics Are Wrong [View article]
    Influence - Butkus is running toward you and about to take your head off, control - Butkus does take your head off.
    SU - you're splitting hairs with influence and control. If there's heavy influence, which they have, there's a degree of control.

    Your statements were generally wrong. Hall pass from me - no need to justify and split more hairs.
    Oct 2, 2015. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Critics Are Wrong [View article]
    Well put Larry
    Your points center on the banking system and you make great sense.

    Whether I like it or not, the FRB now has the dual mandates - beyond the scope of what you've described above.

    I like the banking system control and feel their efforts to exercise power outside of that realm is detrimental to the economy.
    Oct 1, 2015. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Critics Are Wrong [View article]
    If they pay negative rates on excess reserves, your statement of "It doesn't control credit creation" would prove wrong. Actually zirp is intended to create credit right? So if you're right, (I'll say) if the Fed can't 'influence' credit creation - then why is the Fed at zirp and paying .25% on excess reserves? Actually off-setting each other to some degree.

    Make it nirp and underwriting quality drops to move out the excess reserves for new loan creation - yes?
    Oct 1, 2015. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will They, Could They, Should They? [View article]
    More debt isn't the answer IMO. It's a preferred solution by the Fed - but we're levered up already.

    David Stockman piece;
    ".... On the back of $225 trillion of debt, the world economy got drastically overbuilt..."

    Good overview of the increased debt levels since 08. Another piece I read showed nominal debt levels up $57T since 08 - which includes higher global household debt (slower pace than 2000-2007 @ 5.8% vs 09-15 at 2.8%). Can't find the link...

    We need a new paradigm. Stacking new cards on the record house of cards in place, sets us up for another global blow-out of defaults.
    Oct 1, 2015. 09:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will They, Could They, Should They? [View article]
    Precisely hoop - they're human and don't have the ability to cleanly make policy decisions w/out disrupting price mechanisms and disrupting/perverting the natural flow of commerce. Creating losers while trying to create winners can't be avoided.
    Oct 1, 2015. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Heck's Happening To The Global Stock Markets? [View article]
    Weird that the cartel hasn't cut back yet. I suppose they want the U.S. production to decrease by squeezing out the weaker players.
    Sep 30, 2015. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Heck's Happening To The Global Stock Markets? [View article]
    ditto DD - health care costs are chewing up discretionary incomes for many - and capping wage increases for many employees w/ benefits. Health care costs are a true drag on the economy (other than the HC industry). Was at a hospital last week and there were waterfalls and stone pillars everywhere. Seemed like some of the fancy college campuses.
    Trailing GAAP PE is 20-21 from what I've read. Deep down, does anybody really expect 20-25% increase in 2016 earnings? I don't.
    Sep 30, 2015. 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Bottom In The DAX [View article]
    Wonder why ECB QE didn't support the DAX from giving up all the early year gains?
    Maybe the actual main street (lack of) results from Japan and the U.S. QE's weren't lost on DAX investors.
    Sep 30, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We've Seen This Picture Before - Global Markets Down $13 Trillion Already [View article]
    in 08 the prediction was true. March of 09 was the bottom.
    I've participated in 3 'crashes' 87,01,08. When momentum drives buyers away and sellers attempt to exit, Stockman's warning of look out below is fair advise.
    Peak debt or too much leverage won't help.
    Sep 30, 2015. 09:40 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13 Economic Charts That Wall Street Doesn't Want You To See [View article]
    Guessed right in 87 & 07 - had my butt handed to me in 01. Dangerous stuff.
    Sep 30, 2015. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cars, Credit, Clinton, Commodities And Correlations (Again) [View article]
    "...Invisible Hand theology seems to me misguided."
    A strong banking system in 07-08 was in jeopardy - so yes, would agree we don't let them collapse. Tarp, Qe 1 and the other emergency measures would seem to be good support. Past that, with the additional interventions, we now have bigger TBTF banks - the objective missed on de-centralizing systemic risk.

    Central planners: I suggest the beneficiaries of the farm bill are, as you say, the movers and shakers behind the bill. The machine rolls on regardless of our political arguments and/or agreements or who's in office. We're not in a good spot, whoever is in the office.
    Sep 30, 2015. 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Distributed Lag Effect Of Monetary Flows [View instapost]
    Great back-up and explanations of the mechanics.

    "The upshot is that an immense deceleration (c. a 50 percent drop in 3 months), in money flows, or the proxy for inflation, now confronts the U.S. economy in Dec this year."

    I'll join your subscription list for $, if you keep track of/interpret these flows. To have these indicators flashing with a 2-3 month lead time, would seem (is) invaluable.

    I'll admit to not having the math/stats savvy to keep track and act on the information. Thanks!
    Sep 29, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cars, Credit, Clinton, Commodities And Correlations (Again) [View article]
    I question bail-outs - not the mechanisms of bankruptcy. Let the sale of the businesses happen, restructuring mechanisms, haircuts, etc. but your support of bail-outs intervenes in the 'natural' process of those mechanisms.

    Central planning, politics and cronyism has everything to do with the distorted farm bill and the food pyramid our authorities (then) promote. Not Michelle - but grass roots education and behavior change is building - and in effect fighting/competing against the $ flow going to mono crop producers.

    Right wing wacko's....I'll stick to the subject matter at hand.
    Sep 29, 2015. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cars, Credit, Clinton, Commodities And Correlations (Again) [View article]
    "...the issue is optimizing outcomes". Who's deciding that - rather who has the ability to determine that? Implications are vast and beyond the ability of a group of humans to control, implement and dictate.

    I'm not into punishment as much as prevention. Bail outs and a lack of fraud detection and resulting non-deterrence don't put the entities on their own two feet. Every inch of public relief for struggling companies skews a natural flow of change - where the entity might self correct issues, i.e. credit underwriting.

    "Who is "we"?" Congress - they control the farm bill - which has created a reliance on mono-culture cropping and the numerous negatives associated with that. Farms understandably grow corn, soybeans, wheat - those are the key grains being subsidized. In the center of the grocery store(s) and fast food (affordability) - is completely funded by the farm bill....and it's killing us.

    "you cannot force people to be well" -- or 'eat well' -- right, but subsidize crops for cheap affordability of junk foods and the system has been steered to garbage food and now garbage health, in real time -- another central planner intervention that's, in this case, is skewing our diet and as a result our health. Maybe 'broccoli', et al should be subsidized? wonder why it's not?
    Sep 29, 2015. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cars, Credit, Clinton, Commodities And Correlations (Again) [View article]
    Larry the TBTF theme needs to be reversed. Honestly I haven't read the details about the VW problem...but whaatever it is and however important it is, doesn't justify bailing them out. If it is a TBTF entity, should they not conduct themselves accordingly? If not, everyone suffers the consequences. That's what free markets and the 'free hand' dictate - rooting out the dead wood when warranted....something the market is especially good at.

    It's like the FRB trying to eliminate business cycles; bailing out entities that should whither and die OR prosper depending on the abilities of management and free market demand for their goods.

    Health care: Your mindset is the norm. Peaking around the corner of the current sick care industry, should we not develop policy for prevention? The farm bill certainly doesn't support preventive measures for a healthy public. When health care costs exceed the public's capacity to pay for it, maybe we'll think more about prevention and health vs the car mechanic repair shop mentality we have now.

    Sep 29, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment