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  • Why S&P 500 Companies Are Exceeding Earnings Expectations While Falling Short On Revenues [View article]
    Michael you say "The answer is simply that companies are experiencing lower input costs due to the decline in the price of oil".

    Stock buybacks and non GAAP reporting have more to do with earnings than the oil drop. Not saying lower oil won't have repercussions - but 2011-14 has been mostly about buybacks....and as a result reduced cap ex.
    Jan 24, 2015. 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Make The Adrenaline Flow [View article]
    ECB QE - go long - until you shouldn't or until the exits are too crowded to get out..
    Jan 24, 2015. 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar Comeback [View article]
    gary - is deflation 'doomsday'? I'd say it's a matter of degree.
    To me, just an observation. 6-9 mth ~25% $ increase v EUR will translate into tighter margins for US producers selling into the EU and/or declining volume into the EU.
    Jan 23, 2015. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar Comeback [View article]
    Pressure mounting - US export margins & volumes should suffer more - more off-shoring. Seems deflationary to me.
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If Only The Countries In The Eurozone Periphery Were Like Germany [View article]
    Interesting - good approach to view inflation v purchasing power, manuel.

    Policy that needs to create (even) more debt, in the name of growth, will tend to collapse on itself.
    Jan 23, 2015. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB Drives Markets [View article]
    Nice coverage Marc

    It's all about FX (IMO).
    Short term, save the yen & CHF, the EUR and other majors will be exporting deflation to us and our export flow will reduce - contraction...deflatio... pressure.

    EUR/USD 1.20's to coming parity is a ~20% cut (volume and/or margins) on our EU exports and other export markets where the dollar is gaining. Maybe lower net input costs helps our lower our costs of production - that'll take some time.

    Next up, our FRB fx response....
    Jan 23, 2015. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day The Central Bank Powers Came To An End [View article]
    I've read where Obamacare accounted for a decent chunk of Qtr 4 gdp increase.
    Jan 22, 2015. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day The Central Bank Powers Came To An End [View article]
    David
    .." There is nothing that any central bank or government can do to change that".
    I'd disagree about the gov't part of your statement.

    We allow imports from EM producers that do not have nearly the regulations we impose upon ourselves domestically - labor policy, emissions, accounting, taxation, etc. We shouldn't be surprised that multinationals produce off-shore, labor isn't the only metric that makes EM production cheap.

    It's an uneven playing field the gov't DOES have control over.
    Jan 22, 2015. 07:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • (Sort Of) Debunking The Bear Case For Stocks [View article]
    Cam, your analysis is appreciated

    you mention; "Nevertheless, I remain optimistic. The American consumer is poised to come back strongly. The Gallup survey of economic confidence saw a surge in December, just as oil prices fell".

    ...'surge in December' - before holiday gift bills were due. In my neck of the woods, property taxes due in January. Guess I'm just thinking that confidence polls are one thing, historic poor savings is another. Most folks realize some saving (or paying down debt) is in order for most household budgets.

    IBM reported lower rev's vs 2013. If the stock buy-backs slow down, PE's will catch down to the reality of lower rev's and tighter margins.

    And there's volumes to consider on the net effect of lower oil/gas and the major growth engine for ~7 years of domestic oil/gas production...on the decline.

    Jan 21, 2015. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (Sort Of) Debunking The Bear Case For Stocks [View article]
    Not being a TA guy, your review is impressive aarc - thanks.

    From a laymans view, seems to me QE's and the $4T FRB balance sheet would skew normal analysis and as a result makes predictions more difficult.

    IMO, as Moon mentions, the inflated asset levels from CB's is building a bigger air pocket beneath current levels.... say 'black swan' hyper-sensitive.
    Jan 21, 2015. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IS THE STRONG DOLLAR THE NEW BLACK SWAN EVENT? [View instapost]
    Fantastic question moon
    Who would have thought the US move towards capitalism would be a black swan event?

    that's the crux of it. Thanks
    Jan 20, 2015. 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deflationary Side Effect Of Central Bank Policy May Threaten U.S. Equities [View article]
    User; "It is compensation for our loss of free access to the necessities of life we lost when allowed people to own Property."
    say again?
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Oil Prices Do Not Benefit The Economy [View article]
    I wouldn't term it as a small cadre of traders blond.
    All trading/participant positions were based on those elevated levels.

    Under $50 oil - likely an overshoot - which the fed can take plenty of blame. Could be the small cadre of traders orchestrated the fall and are positioning for long trades.
    Jan 19, 2015. 05:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Oil Prices Do Not Benefit The Economy [View article]
    Would agree.
    From elevated price levels, the air pocket is pretty disruptive.
    Jan 19, 2015. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Oil Prices Do Not Benefit The Economy [View article]
    I'd agree Flash.
    We have the Fed to thank for the volatility.
    Jan 19, 2015. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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