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  • How Did Everything Get Expensive When Reported Inflation Is Low? [View article]
    Selecting sectors skews normal market forces. Interventions to this degree miss allocates capital and the consequences are lasting.
    Sep 30 07:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Did Everything Get Expensive When Reported Inflation Is Low? [View article]
    Doug Short puts out a myriad of charts reflecting inflation.

    Having put 3 kids through higher ed, I'd say inflation in some categories has been really high....for many of us. Many have taken on debt ($1T+) in loans that has its own consequences.... Throw in Med care, energy, now food/proteins picking up - our dollar goes far less than 15-34 years ago.

    http://bit.ly/1bDgW6i

    EM countries have been taking on much higher inflation rates (than they can afford) due to our CB policies.

    Not seeing a balance in ~2% headline inflation or in the resulting EM rates.
    Sep 30 05:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Traffic And Jobless Claims Still Point To Expansion [View article]
    Moon brought up a great point - loading up the supply chain (hence transport index up) says nothing about end demand. A Month or so ago, the Baltic Dry Index (Ocean going shipping container rates) was at historic lows. Think I've read recently container moves are up here - again, how profitably will goods move off the shelves? we shall see - if we can sort through all the share buybacks to get a real read....
    Sep 30 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Traffic And Jobless Claims Still Point To Expansion [View article]
    yessir rick
    unbelievable policy(s) - course Big Pharma and the Sickcare loves the policies.
    Sep 30 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Traffic And Jobless Claims Still Point To Expansion [View article]
    Moon - great points. I'll add detail... that increasing gov't interventions continue to distort what's left of free market capital allocation(s). Basing a sustainable economy on increasing debt as policy, pumping equity values as policy and creating a huge bond bubble, sure as hell holds the economy back from sound growth.

    R2 - thanks for your Ag insight. I'm not up on the new farm bill version, but drive around OH, IN, IL, et al and see 95% of the plantings as corn or soybeans; I'd think most would scratch their heads and wonder why policy has led us to these few mono crops (throw wheat and cotton in there). Corn, to me, is devastating the nutritional value of ruminants, putting un-naturally cheap carbs on the grocery and the fast food joints....and we all recognize we have a health epidemic with obesity and diabetes -- wonder why?

    that's one example of gov't intervention 'gone wild' and the unintended consequences keep stacking up...
    Sep 30 01:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Austrian Business Cycle Theory? [View article]
    Thanks hoop!
    Scotland coming up, ISIS, Ebola a wild card, continuing weakness in wages and demand, stock buy-backs still propping up EPS (Fed Ex), plus QE3 wind-down - thin ice for current equity levels IMO
    Sep 17 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Debasement [View article]
    IMO, Globalization has necessitated increasing strength/concentration to combat competition and domestic regulation. Scale of revenue and control allows these large entities to compensate upper mgt at higher levels.

    Increased domestic competition prior to massive globalization held upper mgt compensation (more) in check - at the same time providing leverage to the workforce for increasing wages due to labor demand with higher sector demand.

    Add to that ever increasing mechanization - the average worker has negative leverage.
    Sep 17 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Congress Asks: Is The Fed Creating The Next Financial Meltdown? [View article]
    Hi Asby - your comment has me thinking;
    "...might be sufficient to keep up with global consumption since we're in a period of global over capacity, anyway".

    In a different string on income inequality, I linked (can't find the link off hand) how stock buybacks and dividends have chewed up most all (~85%) earnings -- thus the primary reason stocks have risen so strongly. At the same time, cap ex has declined because of the buy backs - thus the underlying strength of domestic corp's is compromised from the lack of investment in the business(es).

    Not saying I have the answer - but your over capacity comment plays into a reason why cap ex is so low....which has contributed to income/employment stagnation and for the bottom 80%, a falling standard of living......which self perpetuates employment/investment stagnation....


    Sep 13 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Friday---When Bubblevision Misses The Epic Failure Of The US Labor Market [View article]
    Agreed convo
    "Business has to respond to adverse governmental rules and regulations."

    A key issue to me is that Wal-Mart, Target, Apple, et al, whether it be importing goods and/or manufacturing processes, don't have those same rules-reg's applied to their import 'product'. Not just labor, but the cost(s) of domestic reg's vs the lower reg'd EM countries has created an uneven playing field...tilted toward large business that can absorb, control and create the reg's with a dose of lobby/cronyism.

    Small business ownership is now at an all time low. Concentration of control by the biggies are squeezing out small businesses.
    http://bit.ly/1nORFsM
    Sep 13 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull's Self-Delusion [View article]
    MC I agree
    I'll put it this way - back "in the day" 30-40 years ago, a guy or gal entered the work force and (generally) was mentored into an industry - to learn the business and grow in an industry.

    Now I see far less of that. If it's a public company, you're a piece of meat that can be molded into a company 'man' or let loose if you're not 100% endeared to the company mantra. I guess I'm saying, the greed and power/control grab has overtaken integrity and a sense of being/individual. This has always existed, but more so now...partly a function of industry concentration and limited mobility choice for employees - but more so a disregard of the well being of the younger newbies in favor of increasing control at all costs.

    Not a great description - but IMO there's a trust/loyalty that's missing today vs 'back in the day' that has commoditized the employee pool. Maybe globalization has furthered that - either way, I'm not feeling as confident for my kids 'business life', as the confidence I had in the early 80's and into the 90's. Too much concentration of industry sector control has contributed I'm sure.
    Sep 12 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull's Self-Delusion [View article]
    they (CB's) will print
    Sep 12 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull's Self-Delusion [View article]
    Ryan you might want to consider; not exactly the subject of the article, but well worth noting a main reason why equities have performed well. It could be bond prices and equities divergence is more significant than you think.

    http://bit.ly/1uzMhys

    excerpt from Harvard Business Review report in the link;

    .....The allocation of corporate profits to stock buy- backs deserves much of the blame. Consider the 449 companies in the S&P 500 index that were publicly listed from 2003 through 2012. During that period those companies used 54% of their earnings—a total of $2.4 trillion—to buy back their own stock, almost all through purchases on the open market. Dividends absorbed an additional 37% of their earn-ings. That left very little for investments in produc-tive capabilities or higher incomes for employees.
    Sep 12 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Friday---When Bubblevision Misses The Epic Failure Of The US Labor Market [View article]
    Let's punish the EPA for laying down regs on domestic production - regs that big guv't doesn't require from many EM producers to import here. Yes?

    Just maybe multi-national big biz has some pull so that they can buy under priced/under reg'd production imports vs domestic companies that 'follow the rules'.
    Sep 11 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Friday---When Bubblevision Misses The Epic Failure Of The US Labor Market [View article]
    I forgot to mention Big Pharma.
    They love the jammed pharmacies, pink ribbons and bike rides....

    There's more than a few elephants in the room. At&T break-up shows what can happen when competition is given a chance.

    I doubt the local savings and loans are fairing too well against the Primary Dealers....so TBTF's now bigger than when they were TBTF.........
    Sep 11 05:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Friday---When Bubblevision Misses The Epic Failure Of The US Labor Market [View article]
    Gov't and big business aren't necessarily 'friends' but they sure know how to do 'business' with them.
    The bloated rolls of lobbyists and huge sums dumped into engineering legislation and regulations sure isn't helping small to medium business.

    Small business is now at an all time recorded low.
    http://bit.ly/1nORFsM

    Remember when the Dept of Ag head (Butts I think) said in the 70's to farmers; "get big or get out". Well, they got out and now we have a circle jerk of Gov't (FDA, USDA) catering to Big Ag - which caters to Big (junk) Food/Fast Food - which caters to the Health Care system - which is so out of control - that it caters back to the BIG GUV as our nanny state 'savior'.

    Think about it. Gov't intervention has done what for the standard of living of the middle class?

    Centralization of control marches on....until it doesn't. Local knowledge continues to decline. Mentoring used to be a big part development for early hires. No wonder skills don't match ....cheap imported skills and/or production.
    Sep 11 05:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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