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DigDeep

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  • What Is Causing This Market's Sell-Off? [View article]
    up & down....bots and big $ players - anyway they want it to go.
    Sep 4, 2015. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Causing This Market's Sell-Off? [View article]
    I'll bite - what are the reasons lip?
    Sep 3, 2015. 10:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Trends That Are Shredding The Global Economy [View article]
    right on rs055

    bad debt(s) brought the 08-09 GR - and the solution the Fed used was to facilitate more/easier debt.

    gdp is a lousy measure of the health (standard of livings) of a society.......
    Sep 1, 2015. 12:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Appears To Be In Trouble [View article]
    I wouldn't say ZH is 'making stuff up'. They cover reports produced by Bloomberg, Hoisington, Citi, JP, etc. His op ed pieces - certainly slanted toward passing on the kool aide dished out in the MSM, CB's and the gov't.

    I looked at some FRED graphing - non seasonally adjusted showed inventory build(s) pre-recession(s). Basic business fundamentals at work.
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Appears To Be In Trouble [View article]
    Thanks for hunting the table down.
    Confusing stuff from bea.

    Without pouring over the data, I suspect some recessions were preceded by a inventory build. I do know this, when inventory backs up and sales don't keep pace - margins suffer and/or production is cut back to some degree.
    Both Q1 & Q2 are large builds @ $127B & $136B vs 2014 Q2-4 in the $80B's per quarter.

    But with seasonal adjustments - it's not really worth nitpicking over. To me a 50%+ move up in inventories vs 2014, w/out coinciding sales gains, doesn't bode well for Q3-4.
    Recession? we shall see.
    Aug 31, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Appears To Be In Trouble [View article]
    another bea link with no private investment numbers and no net export of goods and services numbers
    http://tinyurl.com/nfg...;step=3&isuri=...

    I'm cautious and don't have confidence in seasonally adjusted numbers.
    Aug 31, 2015. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Appears To Be In Trouble [View article]
    you might be right, plenty would question the bea numbers.
    at any rate they state; "Seasonally adjusted at annual rates" vs period to period.

    My interest and point was/is % change from period to period and I couldn't find any nominal stats
    Their site shows blanks on line 14
    http://tinyurl.com/nfg...;step=3&isuri=...

    Regardless - pretty sure ZH wouldn't make this crap up ($136B build).
    So - bet away on a light inventory build. My gut tells me the inventory build contributed more than .22% period 2 v period 1 - 'annually' seasonally adjusted or not. No 'breaking news' on seasonally adjusted numbers....annualized.
    Aug 30, 2015. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Of GDP Analysis [View instapost]
    John
    Actually thought it was $17T - so if $18T it's ~$4.5T a quarter.
    My question or thought;
    If Q2 was adjusted to 3.7% - the + $136B inventory change (build) would seem to leave ~ .7% net gain in all other sectors....?
    Aug 30, 2015. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Of GDP Analysis [View instapost]
    Wonder why inventories aren't broken out on the chart?
    I've read Q2 had a change of +$136B in private inventories. That's about 3% on $4.25T Q2 GDP.

    The chart shows 00.0% change in gasoline and other energy goods. Not sure how bbro's -$95B is reflected?
    Aug 29, 2015. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Disaster Of GDP Analysis [View instapost]
    If I'm calculating correctly - Health care up 2.8% from Q2 14.

    I'm confused at bbro's numbers - the chart shows 00.0% change - bbro says they dropped 95B for gasoline and other energy goods??
    Aug 29, 2015. 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Appears To Be In Trouble [View article]

    "uhh", my back of the napkin math of ~$4.25T GDP for Q2 is ~3% ($136B "change" in private inventories into $4.25T). What's your math? Your breaking news used a full year of GDP into the Q2 change of $136B??
    Aug 29, 2015. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Appears To Be In Trouble [View article]
    735 - "As demand in the retail sector picks up demand for commodities of all types will increase".
    function of timing 2016 or 2019?
    "since suppliers have been reducing output because of demand considerations"
    Inventory build (increasing output vs reducing) is why Q2 GDP was adjusted higher - especially the inventroy build in auto's
    http://tinyurl.com/oof...

    I'd be careful about 'demand' assumptions and output (inventory build) is up - doesn't bode well for Q3.
    Aug 28, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Appears To Be In Trouble [View article]
    looks like the plunge protection team is in motion this am - with china's moves last night diverting attention from SNB and FRB buying. Don't know where/how to track that...My guess is the market will sell the rips up and the dips are deeper now - volatility galore. Not a game for the meek.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Is Throwing A Rate Hike Tantrum [View article]
    fair enough sir
    Aug 24, 2015. 04:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Is Throwing A Rate Hike Tantrum [View article]
    John
    Bernanke verbalized wanting the equity market higher. QE was intended to directly provide heavy liquidity to invest in the market. Days like today, we see the results (folly) of the CB manipulations and interventions.
    Other CB's are directly buying/own equities.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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