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Bill Burtchaell

Bill Burtchaell
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  • Is Stop-Start Idle Elimination Crushing Vehicle Electrification? [View article]
    A gasoline engine designed to transport a very large potentially dangerous battery, that will take you 20 miles out and may get you home, all mounted in a tiny car that will disintegrate in an accident with most full size or larger vehicles. Did I mention expensive? Seems way too early to make the trade off for a few mpg improvement, If you are older than 25 I doubt that the economics will ever work for you, oh and the car and the battery will die several times during your life expectancy. Not to mention the funny looks from other drivers who have figured all this out on their own, and are wondering how you ever arrived at the "Smartcar" decision.
    Dec 2, 2011. 08:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GMCR Is A Buy Now Even By Einhorn's Standards [View article]
    Doubled sales revenue, YoY, Tripled profits for the quarter YoY. There are no dated products on the shelves, and the displays for this Christmas are much larger than last, I'm sure that GMCR went to retailers and purchased or demanded additional shelf space. I agree GMCR at this price is a huge buying opportunity. This is a fine company struggling very well with exponential growth. Single cup coffee brewing is here to stay and GMCR owns the business. Buy more!
    Nov 10, 2011. 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unsurprisingly, some analysts are defending Green Mountain's (GMCR) following its post-earnings crash. Canaccord believes Green Mountain's current situation is similar to a May 2010 EPS shortfall from Hansen Natural (HANS), which was also attributed to distributor over-buying ahead of a price increase. KeyBanc, meanwhile, notes Keurig brewer sales remain strong. GMCR -30.7%. (more) (transcript)  [View news story]
    Beyond accountability! Just watched Cramer on CNBC, just read the entire Q &A from The GMCR earnings announcement. I am astounded by the lack of knowlege Cramer, Greenberg, and others on CNBC have regarding GMCR. I was also disappointed that Mr Einhorn was not represented at the Q&A.
    Interesting the variables associated with this new coffee brewing business, unlike any other before, if you are a coffee analyst and you are trying do a report on sales, inventory, profit, distribution, good luck if you are using an old matrix. GMCR is trying to anticipate sales and inventory for 25 brands in 35000 locations. The price of green coffee went up in increments to almost 65%, a major cost to the company. The placement of brewers drives K-cup sales, so there is a brewer relationship with retailers as well as an ongoing K-cup retailer relationship, these may or may not be the same retailers.
    Combine all these variables with exponential growth, that requires another team planning and costing ahead in order to keep retailers and consumers supplied with their choices day to day.
    I am very impressed at how well Green Mountain has executed a well prepared business plan. Just think about with all these details, you manufacture and ship 50 million Starbuck's K-cups to retailers.
    They have a tiger by the tail, and to double revenue YOY, and triple profit QOQ, I'd say they are swinging the tiger pretty damn good.
    Nov 10, 2011. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • C-Change as in coffee brewing GMCR [View instapost]
    Am, hope you are not saying that producing a stick of butter or a jar of jam is the same as producing a vacuum sealed K-cup for a brewer.
    I don't know what your back ground is, and maybe you know more than I, but I'm being told that complete retooling and engineering is required to change the products on the line, as well as the speed, packaging, distribution and certification permits of a different purpose line is required, it's not just run this instead of butter.
    And the butter maker just stops with the butter, or jam, what about his products. It's still much cheaper and faster to pay the royalty and buy the k-cups from Green Mountain.
    Nov 9, 2011. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • C-Change as in coffee brewing GMCR [View instapost]
    Why would Sbux build a factory when all they need do is place an order? I'm sure that these little details and huge infrastructure outlays have been very carefully considered. The spread sheet probably sees a long, uncertain return on that size expense, and don't minimize the time value, and interest expense involved. And of course the market is here and now! No time to lose if you want to play here!

    START BREWING with GMCR, the logical, economic, market share answer to your hypothetical
    Nov 8, 2011. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • C-Change as in coffee brewing GMCR [View instapost]
    Check your meter, you are suffering a malfunction!
    Nov 8, 2011. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Green Mountain Madness [View article]
    Question? I'm wondering if Einhorn established his short position before or after his presentation? Can you really discount his motivations to create a bogus, dated, tired picture of GMCR. I would also suggest to you that there is active spinkter tightening going on in the short world with tomorrow being GMCR report date, I would suggest you keep the KY close by!
    Nov 8, 2011. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Green Mountain Madness [View article]
    The missing piece is the depth of this market! The single cup brewing market share presently represents 8% of coffee sales
    of which GMCR owns 80%. Single cup brewing is the growth area of coffee consumption and projected to explode over the next few years.
    The clear leader will be GMCR. Will they maintain an 80% share? Who knows, but a lot of people in the industry think they will continue to be the leader, as they have built the distribution and licensed network and positioning themselves to grow and deliver the quality and quantity the markets demand. We are only observing the tip of the iceberg,and it's only the beginning.
    Nov 7, 2011. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Volatility Presents Premium Opportunity [View article]
    Charlie, like you, I have investigated personally some of the representations that the shorts are making. The report from Suntrust Robinson Humphreys and Keybanc after viewing Einhorns tired old slide show: Nothing new, my sentiments exactly! I have visited the retailers locally, BBY, Walmart, costco, Target, etc, the displays, amount of shelf allocations for the Kuerig and the K-cups is huge, the stock clerks are telling me that the brewers are going out the door in large numbers. I own the brewer, I love the coffee. The accounting issues are 2 years old, the shorts have hammered the same stuff here for a long long time. The placement of several millions brewers this Q, along with the base of millions of brewers already in use are going to surprise big time. a squeeze is not far away, 11/09/11.
    Nov 4, 2011. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Green Mountain Madness [View article]
    A good read is Bill Chappells Suntrust Robinson Humphrey's GMCR comments on Einhorn's presentation. He identifies numerous material mistakes, and all dated material that I have been reading about on SA, from the shorts for almost 2 years! He points out that GMCR makes the same profit from all brands of K-cups, yes the same as from their own brands. He speaks of the patents issue, yes some patents expire in 2012, others do not. The company is not sitting there quietly waiting for patents to expire while building a multi Billion dollar business, with 80% of the single cup brewing market share, do you think?

    Applications are already in the pipeline for improvements and additional patents. The expiration of patents is nothing new in business. Oh did you know that some IBM patents will expire in 2012, umm maybe another short candidate. While you are at it read the GMCR 10K, it's all in there.
    Nov 4, 2011. 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Green Mountain Madness [View article]
    How is it that the shorts are the only eyes that can find fraud in this era of extreme regulation. I keep hearing about the warranty returns and the dated products on the shelves. Do you wise old geezers really believe that the displays you see at BBY, Cosco, Target, Kohl's Macy's and many others including private labels like Cuisinart, Mr coffee, Starbucks, Folgers, do you honestly believe that all these players are stupid? Do you think that GMCR purchased the shelf space? Why don't you stop reading this self serving short tripe and walk into one or more of these stores and grab a stock clerk and ask him what is going on. Maybe this is the largest, most complex conspiracy of all time. Just try it, don't take it from me, ask the clerk to show you the dated merchandise! Do you place your faith in Sam Antar, and Einhorn as the great towers of wisdom in the coffee business? Just hold your short positions till 11/9 and live with the multiplication of millions of new brewers added to a base of millions of existing brewers then try to quantify the number of K-cup sales that produces and will continue to compound with each passing day. Hope you have your jocks strap on!
    Nov 4, 2011. 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Stop-Start Idle Elimination Crushing Vehicle Electrification? [View article]
    JP, your concise, to the point commentary is always enlightening. As one who drank the Kool-aid on Ener1, I chased the news sources for another supportive press release, there were lots of them, I bought it down. The difference in this cycle is the presence of huge amounts of taxpayer funding pushing for a desired results.

    Amazing the difference in approach when the money to be ventured and lost belongs to a helpless third party. The ventures go south one by one and the decision makers keep their job, desk, and pensions. The taxpayer just keeps sending in the required numbers.

    Contrast to results driving investment, the funding of the venture with one's own funds and the severity of failure to the investor. In this era of organic preferences,it's surprising that some of us persist in blind pursuit of the artificial, plastic, cardboard pie!

    Seems to me that Axion is evolving in a very organic manner, investment driven by orderly, tangible results, one by one. I've had my fill of gee-whiz, it's much more expensive than the real thing!
    Nov 3, 2011. 09:35 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) is ripping higher as SunTrust's Bill Chappell goes postal on David Einhorn's short thesis. Chappell knows a bit about the information Einhorn used, seeing as his firm prepared the reports. Among other things, he claims Einhorn made a math error by double-counting packaging costs. Shares +4.6% premarket.  [View news story]
    Get the RH, Bill Chappell story at, There's much more to this story.
    Oct 25, 2011. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR -7.6%) is selling off again as investors abandon the risk trade, but Canaccord's Scott Van Winkle remains quite bullish. Van Winkle is dismissive of new competition from Rogers Family, and believes single-serve brewers will eventually claim at least 40-50% of the home coffee market. (more)  [View news story]
    The upside for GMCR is HUGE, Green Mountain's market share is 80% of 8% single cup overall market penetration, can you grasp 80% of 40% market penetration? Rogers? Where's the distribution? Selection? Unknown quality, questionable brewing process. Have they violated the GMCR patents or not? Could this be settled in a long drawn out lawsuit? I pick GMCR to win this one!
    Oct 25, 2011. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Six Billion Reasons Why Walmart Is Even Better For Customers And Shareholders [View article]
    I guess you prefer the alternative to working for Walmart, no job at all.
    Do Walmart workers and shoppers choose to work and shop there? Is there some invisible force that applies pressure for humans to go there to work and shop? I think there is something I'm missing here, what happened to " choice"? I wish you would just come on out and tell us how you really feel, and would you share your other passions with us?
    Oct 25, 2011. 11:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment