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Ian Farbrother

Ian Farbrother
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  • Why Are The Bulls Regaining Momentum? [View article]
    Chris, I'm a bit surprised that you list VUG rather than QQQ. QQQ looks to me like it has better technical strength (supported at 50-day) plus recent outperformance.
    Aug 15 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Case: Improving Or Deteriorating? [View article]
    Although I haven't see it mentioned in any of the US media I've come across, guests on Squawk Box Europe have mentioned a couple of times this week that this quarter includes significant revisions to the way GDP data is calculated. I just went and confirmed this in the BEA's press release:

    "Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts

    The estimates released today reflect the results of the annual revision of the national income and
    product accounts (NIPAs) in conjunction with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of
    2014. In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and the first quarter of
    2014, GDP and select components were revised back to the first quarter of 1999 (see the Technical
    Note). More information is available in "Preview of Upcoming NIPA Revision" in the May Survey of
    Current Business and on BEA's Web site. The August Survey will contain an article describing the annual
    revision in detail."

    Last night on Squawk Box Europe, they discussed the fact (which I haven't yet confirmed) that the revisions suggest that the GDP growth rate for the past *decade* has only been in the 2% range.

    Link to press release:
    Jul 31 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Investing About Pontification Or Profits? [View article]
    S&P has been finding support at the 21-week ma since early 2013. 21-wk is currently around 1900. Longer term, it tends to find support at the 50-wk - which is currently around 1818.

    However, at least for now it is still nicely above the 50-day - which is currently at 1946. It closed today (Friday) just above the 10-day, which is still in an uptrend. Need to see some 'actual damage' before getting over-excited about potential drops.

    Having said that, not everything is quite so rosy - e.g. IWM still struggling. Looking forward to Chris's weekend video on The Big Picture and how his model is interpreting it!
    Jul 25 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unisys' (UIS) CEO Ed Coleman on Q2 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    No-one asked any questions ... kinda sad ...
    Jul 23 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A bounce into the close, but Europe finishes sharply lower [View news story]
    The ECB's Asset Quality Review (AQR) is coming up in a couple of months. Banks have been preparing for this all year. *Very* unlikely that there is any *widespread* cooking of books at this point!
    Jul 10 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Kayne Anderson MLP Investment (And Sell The Index)? [View article]
    Very interesting discussion here. My thanks to both you (Alex) and comeinvestwithme for taking the time to elaborate on these issues!
    Jul 10 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google reportedly committing up to $500M to challenge Amazon [View news story]
    While a *basic* cloud platform will inevitably be low margin, I would be very surprised if Google didn't start providing value-added services that distinguish its cloud. The first one that comes to mind is providing access to the tons of 'big data' that it inevitably gathers via its search engine (and other projects). Could be very profitable and synergistic.
    Jul 7 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan As A Traditional Value Play: Dividends Reach New Highs [View article]
    Interesting article. Gave me a lot more insight into how price (growth) and dividend growth interact in your weighting methodology than I had been able to glean previously.

    Very useful ... Thanks.
    Jul 7 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grid-Scale Energy Storage; Why Working Capacity And Cycle Duration Matter [View article]
    Great article. I've been aware that grid-scale storage is the 'big thing' that needs to be solved in order to make renewables viable. Had no idea of all these different issues. Very valuable.

    Thanks, Ian
    Jun 24 03:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Greek Banks Moved Into A New Era [View article]
    Congrats on a very informative first article here on SA. I'd occasionally noticed that the Athex has done very well over the last couple of years, but had no idea about why. Look forward to more from you.

    Cheers, Ian
    Jun 5 05:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could The ECB Flip The Investment Playing Field? [View article]
    Unlike the Fed, the ECB does not have an employment-related mandate. Their concern is with the possibility of deflation - which I've repeatedly seen described as a 'central banker's nightmare'!
    Jun 5 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could The ECB Flip The Investment Playing Field? [View article]
    From what I've heard, at the last ECB meeting, Mario Draghi was as explicit as central bankers ever get about wanting to do something at the June meeting (i.e. tomorrow). Meanwhile, Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, has been making surprisingly 'dovish' comments in support of certain kinds of action the ECB could take (with the notable exception of QE). This is particularly significant, because it is Germany that has been most resistant to additional ECB action over the past year or more.
    Jun 4 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs For The Long Term [View article]
    Congrats on your first article for SA.

    I too like PKW. I dabbled with a small position in GURU recently, but sold it when the charts got weak. Still keeping it on my radar, since I assume it will recover well if/when the broader market strengthens.

    Interesting that you didn't include FPX (IPOs). Chart is currently weak, but has good long-term performance.

    I checked the chart for CSD - and again, cautious short-term because of the chart. Still, will add it to my watch list.

    Cheers, Ian
    May 7 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What An 'Overvalued' Euro Means For European Equity Allocations [View article]
    "... why would one want to assume euro risk when seeking to access exposure in this region?"

    Ok, I'll bite ...

    1. A lot of people seem to think that Draghi is going to just keep on trying to talk the currency down without actually taking any real action - which is one reason why the euro keeps going up.

    2. If that changes, it will show up in the charts. Recently, DFE (European small caps - one of my largest holdings) has started to lose momentum. However, FEZ (Eurozone large-caps) has been regaining momentum.
    May 7 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Middle East Is Awesome, And Here Are The Pictures That Prove It [View article]
    I picked up a very small amount of GULF recently, based on the chart. Also, saw an episode of 'Access Middle East' (on CNBC World) not that long ago, featuring an interview with a CEO of one of the UAE banks. What I remember from the interview is an impression that they are becoming an alternative banking hub between Asia and Europe - and that he was very optimistic (although, of course, one always has to discount CEO optimism as just part of their job) about ongoing growth in the bank as a result of this. Most importantly, this growth is a trend that is not particularly linked to the regional economy per se.

    All in all, I very much agree with the article - and will probably pick up some more GULF if the trend continues on track.
    Apr 30 04:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment